Delore Zimmerman of Praxis Strategy Group, Grand Forks, ND provides guidance for rural community leaders about development trends and the steps communities must take to increase their investment attractiveness. He is part of a webinar series (Realizing Our Broadband Future) hosted by the Blandin Foundation

1. The Future of Communities inAmerica’s Resurgent HeartlandA Futurist’s View of Rural Minnesota Delore Zimmerman, Ph.D. President

2. The Heartland is made up of places whose economy and traditions are deeply rooted in farming, mining, forestry or fishing but are now finding their way in the globally competitive, network-centric economy. It’s a religious, family-centered archipelago of regions where civility, education, a focus on marriage and children, and accommodations to create a balance between work and family are commonplace. The resurgence is due to the fact that the pillars of the Heartland economy – food, energy, and manufacturing – are and will be in high demand in the global economy. America’s Resurgent Heartland

4. Thinking About the Future

5. Leveraging Trends Working in the Heartland’s Favor

6. High Performance Community Strategies

7. Building Communities of AspirationAmerica’s Resurgent Heartland

8. Today’s Webinar Foresight Exercises Trends and momentum that our community can align our efforts with to create opportunities Target opportunities that our community can focus on to have the most economic impact Tell a compelling story that will commit people to the possibilities America’s Resurgent Heartland

9. Historical Contributions of the Heartlandto the Nation Food Cheap food - average cost today is 10% of disposable income for Americans Talent Migration to urban centers of educated workers Values Work ethic Sense of patriotism & civic responsibility Religiosity & family values Frontier opportunity - the national outlet

10. Repository of the Entrepreneurial Spirit “Almost all the farmers of the United States combine some trade with agriculture; most of them make agriculture itself a trade.” Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

11. Changing Role of the Heartland Economic function is no longer primarily the production side of agriculture 10% of rural people today live on farms 14% of rural workforce employed in farming The heartland is urbanizing Micropolitans growing and acquiring more urban amenities Approximately three-fifths of non-metro residents are micropolitans One in 10 Americans live in micros Rural (non-core) areas that are growing are high amenity areas and places with critical mass in terms of infrastructure and skilled people

12. Migration Trend 1960-2000

14. Regionalization Marches OnMetropolitan & Micropolitan“ruralplex”

15. America’s Residential Preferences Pew Research Center 2009

17. Overall Rural Economy: Reliance on Government + Manufacturing 25 20 15 Metropolitan Micropolitan Rural 10 5 0 Government Construction Information Natural resources Manufacturing Professional and business services Education health care and social assistance Financial activities Retail and wholesale trade Transportation warehousing and utilities Leisure hospitality and other Earnings percent of total by sector

18. Occupation of Civilian Employed Population 16 years and overMetropolitan, Micropolitan, Outside Metro/Micro Source: The American Community Survey (ACS) 2008

19. Points of Departure for the 21st Century Rural areas emerged from the 1990s having experienced a strong economic rebound. These gains, however, were highly concentrated. 40 percent of rural economies, namely those with scenic amenities, proximity to metropolitan areas, or ability to transform themselves into commercial hubs, accounted for nearly all growth. CAPITALIZING ON RURAL AMERICA: CRAFTING A COMPETITIVE FUTURE. A Study by SRI International for the Federal Home Loan Bank of Des Moines. 2005.

20. Amenities-driven Black Hills Region, South Dakota St. George, Utah Wenatchee Valley, Washington Bozeman, Montana Heartland Growth NodesRegions that Are Thriving Technology-driven (re-emerging hubs) Red River Valley, ND/MN Sioux Falls, South Dakota Des Moines, Iowa Greenwood, Mississippi

21. A Short History of Technology: Red River Valley Corridor Food processing Biotech Services Genomics Digital imaging Business solutions software/systems Nanotechnology Electronics Polymers & coatings Wireless technology Off-road vehicles Crop & Livestock Science Crop Farming & Animal Husbandry Agri-business Management & Finance Machinery & Equipment 1870’s 1950’s2000

22. Forces of Renewal Nationwide people heading to smaller towns and cities Housing prices on coasts reach critical level Social trends strongly pro-rural US population growth will increase interest in rural and small town areas Technological evolution permits dispersion and accelerates opportunities

23. Forces of Transformation and Renewal Foresight Exercise What do you believe will be the one trend or force of transformation that most impacts your community in the foreseeable future? What existing momentum can we build on to create opportunities for the future?

25. Transition and transformation?

28. 1966 to 1996 knowledge doubled

29. 1996 to 2006 knowledge doubled again

30. Radio = 30 years

31. TV = 16 years

32. Computer = 12 years

34. The future is already here. It’s just not widely distributed yet. “we have no idea, now, of who or what the inhabitants of our future might be. In that sense we have no future. Not in the sense that our grandparents had a future, or thought they did. Fully imagined cultural futures were the luxury of another day, one in which ‘now’ was of some great duration. For us, of course, things can change so abruptly, so violently, so profoundly, that futures like our grandparents’ have insufficient ‘now’ to stand on. We have no future because our present is too volatile. We have only risk management. The spinning of the given moment’s scenarios. Pattern recognition.” from Pattern Recognition William Gibsonauthor, coined term cyberspace

35. Network Society Global Information Society Multinational Industrial Society International Agricultural Society National

36. Flows of the Network-Centric Economy work flows to nodes of technology and talent in the global information and logistics infrastructure trade flows between value-added regional and global enterprise networks financial and human capital flows to where it’s wanted and stays where it’s treated well

38. Hinterlands become increasingly disconnected from their own metro centers & often the global economy

39. -> metro areas connect to hinterworlds

40. Declustering is enabling some types of economic activity to move to the periphery

42. US Population Exceeds 400 million by 2050 Source: Bureau of the Census, CensusScope

43. Most of the nation’s rapid population growth, and an even larger share of its economic expansion, is expected to occur in 10 or more emerging megaregions: large networks of metropolitan regions, each megaregion covering thousands of square miles and located in every partof the country.

44. Minnesota

45. 21st Mid-Century Diversity Minorities, now roughly one-third of the nation's population, will become the majority by 2042, and grow to 54 percent by 2050. Hispanics are projected to nearly triple their numbers -- rising from an estimated 46.7 million today to just under 133 million by 2050, out of a projected total U.S. population of 439 million. The black population is expected to rise from 41.1 million, or 14 percent of the nation's population today, to 65.7 million, or 15 percent by 2050. The Asian population is projected to rise from 15.5 million people now, or 5.1 percent of the U.S. population, to 40.6 million, or 9.2 percent, by 2050. The American Indian and Alaska Native population will grow from 3.4 million in 2010 to 5.5 million in 2050, or 1.2 percent

46. Minority Prevalence 2000

48. Increase production of food to meet growing demand for high-quality food experiences

49. Decrease impacts on the environment

50. Improve human health

51. Improve the social and economic well-being of agricultural communities

53. Other Future Growth Areas Specialty Crops – nuts, wine, cheese, etc. Direct to consumer marketing (internet) Food processed near farms Consumer supported agriculture: revival of truck farming and farmers markets & new subscription farming business models Turning ag into energy

54. Projected U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance Imports and Exports: 2004-2015

56. Precision agriculture holds potential for higher-value economic opportunities in agriculture and for rural communities.Machinery & Equipment

59. Outward-oriented from the start and have learned to overcome spatial barriers and the challenges of distance

60. Internalized functions often outsourced

61. Benefit from relatively newer infrastructure compared to east coast and rust belt; less stifling regulation than the west coast

62. High productivity and work ethic in the workforce - mechanical savvy

64. Annual demand for renewable fuels increases the fastest—including E85 and biodiesel fuels for light-duty vehicles, biomass for co-firing at coal-fired electric power plants, and byproduct streams in the paper industry captured for energy production.

65. Biomass consumption increases by 4.4 percent per year on average from 2007 to 2030 and makes up 22 percent of total marketed renewable energy consumption in 2030, compared with 10 percent in 2007. Source: Energy Information Administration. Quadrillion BTUs

66. Energy: The Next Frontier “Today on any given day there are two groups of buyers in commodity markets: one representing food processors and another representing biofuel producers” --Lester Brown, 2/1/06 in the Globalist

69. Wind could generate as much as 11 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity each year on the Great Plains, Great Lakes, Rocky and Appalachian Mountains. 50,000 megawatts in Canada

70. Federal 20% Renewables Mandate for Large Electric Utilities $22.6 billion to $37.7 billion savings by lowering electric and natural gas bills Creates 91,220 new jobs , many high skilled in rural areas $41.5 billion in new capital investment, including $5.7 billion in income to farmers and rural land owners, and finally, $2.8 billion in new local tax revenue. Pollution reduction equivalent to taking 25 million to 32 million cars off the road. U.S. Jobs Created by Renewable Energy vs. Fossil Fuels, 2020

71. Distributed Community-Based Regional Energy Systems Most renewable energy sources are abundant on a regional, oftentimes sub-regional level – e.g. hydro, solar, biomass, geothermal, wind An alternative to the national grid is a distributed system Wenatchee Valley, Washington

72. Building On the Robust Pillars of the Heartland Economy Foresight Exercise Food, energy and manufacturing hold significant future opportunities for rural communities. Describe an opportunity for your community that you feel could get traction in the next 20 years. What opportunities beyond food, energy and manufacturing hold promise for your community?

73. “The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones.” John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory (1936)

74. Challenge #1creating opportunities for upward mobility and middle class jobs

75. Challenge #2 Finding Our Way in the Emerging Sustainable Development Paradigm settlements lifestyle mobility Social food Economy Environment health energy production consumption technology Sustainability is becoming an umbrella term for health, wellness, organics, environmental consciousness, fair trade, simple living, buying local, etc.

76. High PerformanceCommunities High performance communities are communities and regions that are capable of realizing their full potential – they are competitive and livable. The goal is to create and sustain economic opportunities that produce as much value as possible given available resources, capabilities and the reachable market – whether it is local, regional, national or global. NETWORKS

77. A High Performance Community or Region Is connected via telecom & transport & transit Nourishes entrepreneurs Grows from within focusing on higher-skill, higher- value opportunities Focuses on industry sectors/clusters that build on local competitive advantages Networks vigorously locally and with business and government from outside the region Has a global outlook Mobilizes local leadership & collaborates regionally

79. Communities don’t act, the parts do – so empower the parts

80. Success comes from seizing momentum and aligning actions with trends that work in your favor

81. Prosperity is determined by the power of your connections – increasingly those outside the community

83. Infrastructure is a Driver of Economic Growth and Prosperity Infrastructure ………………………………………………………… Infrasystems

84. Build and cultivate the skills and energies of people, both as entrepreneurs and workers.The growth of a region now depends onthe decisionsof individual entrepreneurs, investors, creative workers to locate there. To them the world is a vast smorgasbord in which various locales compete for their affections and attention.Quality of life and lifestyle factors can attract new people to an area - but opportunity is the prime ingredient. Joel Kotkin

85. Entrepreneur Community Business Interests & Relationships Business Opportunities & Access Geographical Preferences Quality of Life Quality of Life Preferences Resources & Infrastructure Entrepreneurial Capabilities & Resources

87. Business environment that facilitates any kind of growth

88. Small business development

89. Management, technical and financial support

90. Incubation support and facilities

91. Focus on one or more growth-oriented businesses

92. Business ecosystem

95. skills

96. workflow

97. planning

99. Local Economy Outside Economies Leveraging Flows in the Network Economy

101. Engage regional universities and colleges

102. Build connections with outside collaborators, funders and investors in business and government

105. Build on linkages to traditional rural industries, e.g. M&E

106. Repurpose assets and resources, e.g. agri-energy

107. Create collaborative networks of companies, colleges, universities & government

109. Built a global brand – superior product quality processes

110. Aligned strategy with cooking and food trends

111. Boutique downtown --> part of Fred Carl’s dream

112. Restoration of historic buildings

113. Focus on southern hospitality and cuisine

114. Use history & tradition. i.e. the power of locale  Cotton Capital of the World

116. Resolve Resourcefulness Relationships Terroir

117. Seize opportunity now Not houses finely roofed Nor the stones of walls well built Nor canals nor dockyards make the city But men able to use their opportunity Alcaeus 600 BC Greece

118. “Good things come to those who wait, but only the things left over by those who hustle.” Abraham Lincoln

119. Become a possibility factory! High Throughput – Combinatorial “If you want to have good ideas you must have many ideas.” Linus Pauling Quantum chemist & biochemist Nobel Prize Winner (2 times)

121. Data Services

122. Application ServicesAgriculture Production Machinery & Equipment

123. Mobilize strategic leadership coalitions on multiple fronts Community Forum Technical Analysis Capacity Risk Capital For Innovation

124. Emulate The Success of Others “ The future is already here. It’s just not widely distributed yet.” William Gibsonauthor, coined term cyberspace

125. Make people a priority People are sophisticated, decision-makers about place today Quality jobs Amenities & aesthetics Recreation and leisure Affordability Safety Quality schools and health care

126. Leverage #1 Asset balance FAMILY

127. Tell a compelling story that commits people to the possibilities “I’ll believe it when I see it. I’ll see it when I believe it.”

129. Area Farmers Supply Organic Produce to East Coast Restaurants

131. Thank Youdelore@praxissg.com