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The Sudans and the NilesThe Sudans and the Niles
Ana Elisa Cascao, SIWIAna Elisa Cascao, SIWI
Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013
Map: the Sudans and the NilesMap: the Sudans and the Niles
Not upstream,
not downstream
but midstream
The ‘hidden’ maps: the trianglesThe ‘hidden’ maps: the triangles
Sudans: key players in the Nile hydropoliticsSudans: key players in the Nile hydropolitics
North Sudan:North Sudan: the riparian state that can utilise
more Nile water resources
South Sudan:South Sudan: the riparian state can (potentially)
increase the Nile water resources
King-makersKing-makers in the complex hydropolitical Nile
game (multilateral, trilateral and bilateral)
North Sudan:North Sudan:
the wild hydropolitical cardthe wild hydropolitical card
• Current and future uses of the Nile waters
• Water consumption:
the nexus between irrigation, livestock & energy
• Water diplomacy:
looking down (dyad) & looking up (potential)
North Sudan: the irrigation potentialNorth Sudan: the irrigation potential
North Sudan:North Sudan:
the irrigationthe irrigation
potentialpotential
North Sudan: the livestock potentialNorth Sudan: the livestock potential
North Sudan:North Sudan:
the livestockthe livestock
potentialpotential
Source: Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics (unpublished data); In Pastoralism
Briefing Papers, part of UNEP Sudan Integrated Environment Project
North Sudan: current and futureNorth Sudan: current and future
hydro-economic strategy?hydro-economic strategy?
• Oil or agriculture/livestock
• Back to the breadbasket idea?
• Sugar/Ethanol ambitions
• Is there water enough?
South Sudan: the new Nile riparianSouth Sudan: the new Nile riparian
• 11th Nile riparian state
• Part of the two Nile regions
• Prospects for agriculture, livestock & hydropower
• Current and future hydro-economic strategy?
• Hydropolitical positionality?
South Sudan:South Sudan:
Resource-basedResource-based
developmentdevelopment
• The rise and fall of an oil economy
• Back to the basics…Agriculture
and Livestock
• Trade-offs and social conflicts
• Increasing energy demands
South Sudan and the Nile in theSouth Sudan and the Nile in the
post-independence periodpost-independence period
Alignment:
1959 Agreement
or CFA?
• Foreign Policy
• Negotiations
• Water Allocations
• Jonglei Canal
Pre and Post-Referendum NegotiationsPre and Post-Referendum Negotiations
Hydropolitical
implications of South
Sudan’s secession?
Nile discussions in 2 folders:
• International Agreements
and
• Natural Resources
Scenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the NileScenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the Nile
South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?
• Political and econonic
calculations
• Political and economic
relations with Egypt
and Sudan
• Political and economic
relations with African
neighbours (Ethiopia,
Uganda, Kenya, and other
EAC countries)
Jonglei Canal:Jonglei Canal:
yes or not
(or maybe)?
Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?
Jonglei Canal: a symbol of colonialism and a symbol of war
Impacts: hydrological, environmental, social, political, ...
Technical engineering or social-political engineering?
?
JongleiCanal
Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?
Agriculture
Energy
Hydropolitics
New book
Resource-based conflict and
cooperation in South Sudan
and Gambella (Ethiopia):
When Water, Land and Oil
Mix With Politics
Thanks for your
attention!
ana.cascao@siwi.org

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The Sudans and the Niles

  • 1. The Sudans and the NilesThe Sudans and the Niles Ana Elisa Cascao, SIWIAna Elisa Cascao, SIWI Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013
  • 2. Map: the Sudans and the NilesMap: the Sudans and the Niles Not upstream, not downstream but midstream
  • 3. The ‘hidden’ maps: the trianglesThe ‘hidden’ maps: the triangles
  • 4. Sudans: key players in the Nile hydropoliticsSudans: key players in the Nile hydropolitics North Sudan:North Sudan: the riparian state that can utilise more Nile water resources South Sudan:South Sudan: the riparian state can (potentially) increase the Nile water resources King-makersKing-makers in the complex hydropolitical Nile game (multilateral, trilateral and bilateral)
  • 5. North Sudan:North Sudan: the wild hydropolitical cardthe wild hydropolitical card • Current and future uses of the Nile waters • Water consumption: the nexus between irrigation, livestock & energy • Water diplomacy: looking down (dyad) & looking up (potential)
  • 6.
  • 7. North Sudan: the irrigation potentialNorth Sudan: the irrigation potential
  • 8. North Sudan:North Sudan: the irrigationthe irrigation potentialpotential
  • 9. North Sudan: the livestock potentialNorth Sudan: the livestock potential
  • 10. North Sudan:North Sudan: the livestockthe livestock potentialpotential Source: Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics (unpublished data); In Pastoralism Briefing Papers, part of UNEP Sudan Integrated Environment Project
  • 11. North Sudan: current and futureNorth Sudan: current and future hydro-economic strategy?hydro-economic strategy? • Oil or agriculture/livestock • Back to the breadbasket idea? • Sugar/Ethanol ambitions • Is there water enough?
  • 12. South Sudan: the new Nile riparianSouth Sudan: the new Nile riparian • 11th Nile riparian state • Part of the two Nile regions • Prospects for agriculture, livestock & hydropower • Current and future hydro-economic strategy? • Hydropolitical positionality?
  • 13. South Sudan:South Sudan: Resource-basedResource-based developmentdevelopment • The rise and fall of an oil economy • Back to the basics…Agriculture and Livestock • Trade-offs and social conflicts • Increasing energy demands
  • 14. South Sudan and the Nile in theSouth Sudan and the Nile in the post-independence periodpost-independence period Alignment: 1959 Agreement or CFA? • Foreign Policy • Negotiations • Water Allocations • Jonglei Canal
  • 15. Pre and Post-Referendum NegotiationsPre and Post-Referendum Negotiations Hydropolitical implications of South Sudan’s secession? Nile discussions in 2 folders: • International Agreements and • Natural Resources
  • 16. Scenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the NileScenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the Nile
  • 17. South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile? • Political and econonic calculations • Political and economic relations with Egypt and Sudan • Political and economic relations with African neighbours (Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and other EAC countries)
  • 18. Jonglei Canal:Jonglei Canal: yes or not (or maybe)?
  • 19. Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border? Jonglei Canal: a symbol of colonialism and a symbol of war Impacts: hydrological, environmental, social, political, ... Technical engineering or social-political engineering? ? JongleiCanal
  • 20. Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans? Agriculture Energy Hydropolitics
  • 21. New book Resource-based conflict and cooperation in South Sudan and Gambella (Ethiopia): When Water, Land and Oil Mix With Politics

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. The devil’s triangle