1. Paper Presented at India Professional Forum on 19 th June, 2010 at India House, India High Commission, Lagos. 19 June, 2010 By Dr. Emmanuel Moore Abolo (Chief Economist & Head, Group Market Risk Management) Access Bank Plc. Budget 2010 and Its Impact on Business Environment in Nigeria

2. Our Philosophy To go beyond the ordinary, to deliver the perceived impossible, in the Quest for Excellence To transform our bank into a world-class financial services provider. The Quest For Excellence M I S S I O N V I S I O N BRAND DRIVER

3. Our Core Values

5. POLICY THRUST OF THE 2010 BUDGET

6. KEY ASSUMPTIONS & TARGETS Table: Highlights of the 2010 Budget (in comparison with 2007, 2008 & 2009) Source: Budget Office of the Federation Budget Highlights 2007 2008 2009 2010 Remarks Crude Oil Benchmark Price $40pb $59pb $45pb $67 Upward Trend Crude Oil Production Level(mbpd) 2 2.45 2.29 2.35 Upward Trend GDP Growth Rate Target (%) 7% 11% 8.9% 5.47% Downward Trend Inflation Rate (%) 9% 8.5% 8.2% 11.2 Upward Trend Exchange Rate (N/US$) 126 117 125 150 Depreciating Joint Venture Cash Calls ($bn) 4.5 4.97 5.0 7.0 Upward trend Total Expenditure (N'tr) 2.3 2.45 3.10 4.61 Increasing Total Revenue (N'tr) 1.8 2.02 1.77 3.086 Increasing Budget Deficit (N'tr) 0.5 0.56 1.1 1.52 Upward Trend Deficit to GDP (%) 2.9% 2.5% 4.0% 4.6% Increasing GDP (N'tr) 20.84 24.89 27.67 29.36 Increasing Capital Spending (% of total expenditure) 41 20.04 27.74 40.2 Upward Trend

7. HOW REALISTIC ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS? Source: EIA

8. HOW REALISTIC ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS (cont’d)?

9. HOW REALISTIC ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS (cont’d)? 2010 Growth Rate Target (5.47%)

10. HOW REALISTIC ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS (cont’d)? 2010 Exchange Rate Target (N150/$)

11. HOW REALISTIC ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS (cont’d)? 2010 Inflation Target (11.2%)

19. IMPACT OF BUDGET ON THE NIGERIAN BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

20. IMPACT OF BUDGET ON THE NIGERIAN BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Index, 2009-2010.

30. Q3 MACROECONOMIC FORECAST Disclaimer: These forecasts are not those of Access Bank but are entirely those of the author Official Exchange Rate (N/US$) BDC Exchange Rate(N/US$) Interbank Exchange Rate(N/US$) Month Best Case Scenario Most Likely Scenario Worst Case Scenario Best Case Scenario Most Likely Scenario Worst Case Scenario Best Case Scenario Most Likely Scenario Worst Case Scenario July 148.89 149.11 149.22 152.63 153.35 154.07 150.59 150.95 151.32 August 149.28 149.34 149.44 152.86 153.58 154.30 150.82 151.18 151.55 Sept 149.93 150.00 150.09 153.51 154.23 155.00 151.47 151.84 152.20 Inter-bank 30-day (%) Inter-bank 90-day (%) Savings Rate (%) Time Deposit Rate (%) Month Best Case Scenario Most Likely Scenario Worst Case Scenario Best Case Scenario Most Likely Scenario Worst Case Scenario Best Case Scenario Most Likely Scenario Worst Case Scenario Best Case Scenario Most Likely Scenario Worst Case Scenario July 8 8.09 8.21 7.79 7.97 8.19 2.77 2.83 2.87 8.55 8.62 8.68 August 7.6 7.7 7.81 7.86 8.05 8.27 2.59 2.65 2.69 8.37 8.44 8.50 Sept 5.36 5.46 5.57 7.99 8.17 8.39 2.23 2.29 2.33 8.01 8.08 8.14 Maximum Lending Rate (%) Inflation Rate (%) Crude Oil Price (US$ per barrel) Month Best Case Scenario Most Likely Scenario Worst Case Scenario Best Case Scenario Most Likely Scenario Worst Case Scenario Best Case Scenario Most Likely Scenario Worst Case Scenario July 18.47 18.65 18.73 11.03 12.78 15.85 76.72 74.20 70.90 August 18.28 18.47 18.55 11.97 13.35 15.70 74.92 72.41 69.10 Sept 17.93 18.11 18.18 12.00 13.85 15.77 72.44 71.83 66.21

33. Thank You