1. What’s Next for Microsoft, Google and the Rest of IT Industry? (Opinion) 12/17/10 10:56 AM
Home News Topics Jobs Digital Communities Video Events Webinars Grants Magazines Advertise
Search
What’s Next for Microsoft, Google and the Rest of IT Industry?
News Topics
(Opinion) Government Technology Videos
E-Government
Emerging and Sustainable December 16, 2010 Related Products Los Angeles County Prepares for a
Technology By Andy Blumenthal Nuclear Explosion
Protect your
Enterprise Technology November 17, 2010
“We are living in a Windows system &
Health and Community material world, and I spot performance Net Zero Energy: Inside the Federal
Services am a material girl.” — issues fast with this Government's Most Energy-Efficient
Madonna FREE Disk Building
IT Policy/Management
Performance November 3, 2010
Justice and Public Safety For some people, like Analyzer. :
Products Madonna, the Diskeeper Disaster Response Gets Boost From Viz
“material world” Corporation Lab Geo-Animations
Security
represents a society September 29, 2010
View All News Topics...
where people must Find out why more
GT Network of Sites: pay to get their way. than 90% of Fortune
Digital Communities To me it means the 500 companies rely
mortal world, where on Diskeeper’s
Emergency Management Andy Blumenthal, CTO,
we are born, live, try innovative products. :
Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco,
Public CIO to thrive and Diskeeper
Firearms and Explosives
Videos ultimately pass the Corporation
baton to others.
Newsletters
Mortality isn’t limited to human beings, but is also a
Magazine property of organizations. Several articles have appeared
View the Current Issue about it lately in mainstream and IT publications. Industry
analysts are looking to Microsoft and Google and
wondering how they, like other technology organizations,
will master the competency of, as Computerworld puts it,
“Getting to next.”
A curious irony runs throughout these conversations. Microsoft and Google are seemingly
on top of their respective games, dominating the market and earning tens of billions in
revenue per year. Despite being at the pinnacle of the technology industry, various
industry watchers have noticed, they appear unable to see what’s the next rung on their
ladder. It’s almost like they’re dumbfounded that nobody has placed it in front of them.
Subscribe Consider, for example, that Microsoft dominates desktop operating systems, with
approximately a 90 percent share of the market, business productivity suites at 80
percent and browser software at 60 percent. Google similarly dominates Internet search
Daily Newsletter at about 64 percent.
Enter Email Address
view sample Everyone is asking: Why can’t these companies find their next great act? Microsoft
launched the Kin and dropped it after less than two months; Bing has a fraction of
Google’s market share in search; and Windows Mobile never became a major player as
an operating system. Further, as The Wall Street Journal pointed out, the Xbox video
Industry Perspectives MOST VIEWED MOST COMMENTED
game system, though finally profitable, Microsoft will likely never recoup the initial
Case Studies investment in research and development. This Section | Whole Site
White Papers
Similarly Google gambled by acquiring the ad network DoubleClick in 2007 for $3.1 What’s Next for Microsoft, Google and the Rest of
Contributed Solutions IT Industry? (Opinion)
billion, YouTube in 2006 for $1.6 billion and the mobile ad platform AdMob in 2009 for
Partner Sites $750 million. But so far, as Fortune noted, Google hasn’t seen significant benefit from Virtual Alabama Facilitates Data Sharing Among
State and Local Agencies
these purchases in terms of diversifying its revenue stream. “The day is coming when …
the activity known as ‘Googling’ no longer will be at the center of our online lives. Then California CIO Teri Takai Named U.S. Defense
what?” said The Wall Street Journal. Department IT Chief
Ohio Shared Services Uses Enterprise System to
From the perspective of organizational behavior, there’s a natural law at work here that Consolidate State Financial Services
explains why these resource-rich companies, which have the brains and brawn to Smart Cameras Aim to Stop Crimes Before They
http://www.govtech.com/featured/Whats-Next-for-Microsoft-Google.h…news&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=Whats-Next-for-Microsoft-Google Page 1 of 4

2. What’s Next for Microsoft, Google and the Rest of IT Industry? (Opinion) 12/17/10 10:56 AM
Smart Cameras Aim to Stop Crimes Before They
repeatedly reinvent themselves, are in apparent decline. All organizations, like all people Occur
and natural organisms, have a natural life cycle — birth, growth, maturity, decline and
death.
To stay competitive and on top of our game, we constantly must plan our strategy and
tactics to move into the future. However, organizations, like people, are mortal. Some
challenges are part of life’s natural ups and downs. Others tell us we are in a decline that
cannot be reversed. At that point, the organization must make decisions that are
consonant with the reality of its situation, salvage what it can and return to the
shareholders what it can’t.
In other words, eventually every organism will cease to exist in its current form. During its
life cycle, it can reinvent itself like IBM did in the 1990s. And when reinvention is no
longer an option, it goes the way of Polaroid.
This is similar to technology itself. As a new technology emerges, time and effort is spent
further developing it to full capacity. We optimize and integrate it into our lives and fix it
when it’s broken. But there comes a time when horses and buggies are no longer
needed, and it’s time to face the facts and move on to cars — and one day, who knows,
space scooters?
Going back full circle to the human analogy: People can reinvent themselves by going
back to school, changing careers, perhaps remarrying and so on. But eventually we all
go gray. And that’s fine; that’s the way it should be. Let’s reinvent ourselves while we can.
And when we can’t, let’s accept our mortality graciously and be joyful for the great things
that we have done.
Andy Blumenthal is the CTO of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and
Explosives. A regular speaker and published author, Blumenthal blogs at The Total CIO.
Blumenthal’s views are his own and do not represent those of any agency. This column
does not represent an assessment of Microsoft, Google or any other organization.
1 retweet | More
Comments
Add Your Comment
Name *
Email
Comment *
http://www.govtech.com/featured/Whats-Next-for-Microsoft-Google.h…news&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=Whats-Next-for-Microsoft-Google Page 2 of 4