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Anomaly Detection by Mean and Standard Deviation (LT at AQ)

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Yoshihiro Iwanaga
Yoshihiro Iwanaga
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Anomaly Detection iwanaga
Who am I @quake_alert @quake_alert_en @quake_alert_fr @quake_alert_kr Yoshihiro Iwanaga
Motivation for detecting anomaly Traditional system monitoring • process existence • ping, http, tcp response • disk usage → “fixed” rule / threshold
Motivation for detecting anomaly Notice something out of ordinary • network traffic is heavier than usual • number of login try is obviously larger • a colleague is strangely gracious today → Unusual behaviors; Indications of fault. Such info helps preventing service degrading in advance!! but rule/threshold vary with service, host, client, time…
key to detect anomaly usual unusual Watch differences b/w
e.g. Network Traffic Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri traffic time
Superimpose 24 hour plot Traffic at 15:00 on workday is about 1.2 Gbps traffic time Periodicity!!
mean mean － 3σ mean + 3σ amount of dispersion from mean Acceptable “range” → e.g. Acceptable range of traffic at 15:00 on workday is 1.01 to 1.38 Gbps
Case examples
DDoS partial hardware failure Traffic
number of mail passed spam filterspam rate e-mail Applied a wrong spam rule
However Reality is not that simple… 人生楽ありゃ苦もあるさ 涙の後には虹も出る 歩いてゆくんだしっかりと 自分の道をふみしめて 山上路夫
downloading large files mass e-mail sending “Traffic spike” happens so frequently Frequent false-positive alerting will be “cry-wolf” system…
heuristic filtering In usual, traffic gets cool down within 15 minutes notify engineers if anomaly continues more than 15 minutes Engineers’ knowledge is gold mine for better algorithm  → one practical example:

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