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WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM

                                  China Business Summit 2006




                                       Sustainable Growth through Innovation:
                                            China’s Creative Imperative

                                              Beijing, 10-11 September
                       INSIGHTS
Contents
                   This publication is also available in electronic form on the World Economic Forum
                   website at the following address:

                   China Business Summit 2006 report:
                   http://www.weforum.org/summitreports/china2006 (HTML)

                   The electronic version of this report allows access to a richer level of content
                                                                                                             Preface                                                                        3
                   from meeting, including the weblog, photographs and session summaries.

                   The report is also available as a PDF:
                   http://www.weforum.org/pdf/summitreports/china2006.pdf (PDF)
                                                                                                             Summary – Sustainable Growth through Innovation: China’s Creative Imperative   4
                   Other specific information on the China Business Summit 2006, Beijing, 10-11
                   September, can be found at the following links:

                                                                                                             Innovation                                                                     6
                   Meeting News                               www.weforum.org/china
                   Photographs                                www.pbase.com/forumweb/china2006
                   Programme                                  www.weforum.org/china/programme
                   Interviews                                 www.weforum.org/china/indepth
                                                                                                             Risk Management                                                                9
                   Partners                                   www.weforum.org/china/partners
                   KnowledgeConcierge                         www.weforum.org/china/kc
                   Weblog                                     www.forumblog.org

                                                                                                             Sustainable Growth                                                             12



                                                                                                             Globalization                                                                  15


                                                                                                             The Creative Imperative in China                                               18



                                                                                                             Acknowledgements                                                               20
The views expressed in this publication do not
necessarily reflect those of the World Economic
Forum.




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                                                REF: 121006
                                                                                                                                                                                                 1
                                                                                                       China Business Summit 2006
Preface

                             The China Business Summit 2006 was designed to generate insight and guide action to
                             improve the alignment of China’s public policy, development and industry agendas. The
                             frank and open discussions in Beijing laid bare the reality that China today is something
                             of an anomaly in terms of modern economic history. It has accumulated now close to
                             US$ 1 trillion in foreign currency reserves, while at the same time hundreds of millions of
                             its citizens still live on less than US$ 500 a year. Or, as one pundit put it recently, China is
                             “a developing country that has vast global impact.”*

                             The report that follows examines this duality, particularly in the context of the newly
                             endorsed 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010) which focuses on implementing “people-
                             centred” and “scientific” development policies. Concepts, still not yet fully understood in
                             terms of their long-term policy and economic impact, but much better appreciated in
                             terms of their growing importance by those executives who engaged the senior officials
                             participating in the Summit.

                             China is now the world’s fourth largest economy – its per capita GDP is well over US$
                             1,000 and it has surpassed the United States as the leading destination for foreign direct
                             investment. These accomplishments, however, have led to the realization that this rapid
                             economic success has also introduced new challenges requiring innovative government
                             policies and creative business solutions if the country is to maintain its strong record of
                             growth. During the week of the Summit, the Chinese government released its first
                             measurement of the country’s “Green GDP” which subtracts the cost of natural
                             resources and environmental degradation from total GDP. In 2004, the economic loss
                             from environmental pollution amounted to 3.05% of GDP (US$ 64 billion). Thus, the
                             China Business Summit 2006 was timely in bringing key stakeholders together to rethink
                             and reshape the country’s growth and industry agendas in this changing development
                             context.

                             China’s first quarter GDP is already 10% greater than a year before and concerns are
                             growing over excessive investment in specific industries and the need to tighten
                             monetary policy. Although fears of excessive growth loom large, the new Five-Year Plan
                             is focused squarely on reducing rural-urban income disparities and uplifting the living
                             standards of the 800 million Chinese earning less than US$ 1,000 a year. Readers of this
                             report will find that addressing both challenges requires shifting from investment and
                             export driven economic growth to sustainable growth driven by technology innovation
                             and domestic consumption. The modalities of achieving this appear to be at the centre
                             of many more discussions in the future.




                             Lee Howell
                             Director, Asia



                             * Martin Wolf, “Why Beijing should dip into China’s corporate piggy bank,” Financial Times, 4 October 2006




                                                                                                                                          3
China Business Summit 2006
Summary – Sustainable Growth through
             Innovation: China’s Creative Imperative

                                        “We have to switch from                                            “What will truly spur                                                        “One major question is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sustainable Growth
                                        our previous industrial                                            innovation within Chinese                                                    whether Chinese innovation
                                        development mode, from                                             companies is the recognition                                                 will occur only in products,
                                        consuming large amounts of                                         of the real value of                                                         or more importantly will
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         The chief economic challenge is to shift from an export-
                                        natural resources to a                                             intellectual property rights.”                                               occur in business institutions
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         led growth model to one driven by domestic consumption
                                        development mode based                                                                                                                          – in processes, organization
                                        on science and technology                                          Maurice Levy                                                                 and management style.            and innovation.
                                                                                                           Chairman and Chief Executive
                                        as well as innovation.”                                                                                                                         That locus of creativity could   • A key obstacle is the lack of social safety nets, which
                                                                                                           Officer, Publicis Groupe, France;                                            actually be more powerful
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           hinders the deployment of savings to more productive
                                                                                                           Co-Chair of the China Business
                                        Zhang Xiaoqiang                                                                                                                                 than innovation in new
                                                                                                           Summit 2006                                                                                                     purposes and discourages entrepreneurship.
                                        Vice-Chairman, National                                                                                                                         products.”
                                        Development and Reform                                                                                                                                                           • Reflecting the macroeconomic paradigm change that
                                        Commission, People's Republic                                                                                                                   Tom Manning                        needs to take place, Chinese firms must transform
                                        of China                                                                                                                                        Chief Executive Officer, China
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           themselves from focusing on market share to focusing
                                                                                                                                                                                        Board Directors, Hong Kong
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           on sustainable profits.
                                                                                                                                                                                        SAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         • Achieving energy security with environmental
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           responsibility and efficiency is top priority.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         • Addressing the absence of safety nets and the need for
                                                                                                                                                     Innovation
    The economic model that has given China over two                    Acquiring adequate energy for China’s development will                                                                                             energy efficiency and environmental protection offers
    decades of remarkable growth is getting an overhaul.                continue to be the paramount challenge, one                                                                                                        commercial opportunities that could drive new,
    From now on, sustainable growth and development will                compounded by the urgent need to find cleaner and more                       China needs innovation to produce less energy-                        sustainable growth.
    depend on China’s ability to innovate. That was the                 efficient means of delivering it. China’s leaders must also                  intensive economic growth and to reduce its
    message from the more than 500 senior government,                   solve the riddle of how to ensure that future development                    dependency on foreign technology.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Globalization
    business, media and academic leaders at the China                   reverses growing disparities of income. Moreover, they                       • China’s companies have to innovate to fend off rival
    Business Summit 2006. To accomplish this will require               must somehow unleash the nation’s innovative potential in                       low-cost manufacturing centres and increasing
    that policy-makers and businesses keep the following                a way that can arrest China’s growing trade deficit in                          foreign competition in Chinese markets.                          Both rich and poor, China is a paradox. It is the fourth
    priorities at the forefront of their agenda:                        intellectual property.                                                       • China’s emphasis on R&D in cutting-edge industries                largest economy in the world but still has millions living
                                                                                                                                                        presents new opportunities for foreign investors.                below US$ 1,000 per capital GDP.
    • Increase the protection of intellectual property rights of        Unleashing China’s creative impulse will require dramatic                    • Universities need to work more closely with the                   • China’s population and economic size are giving it
      Chinese and foreign companies                                     changes to the nation’s educational system, particularly its                    private sector to develop curricula that produce                    greater clout in the global community, with increasing
                                                                        universities – the crucibles of China’s creative leadership.                    graduates more suited to the workplace.                             influence in international organizations.
    • Improve environmental protection at the provincial and            China will continue to need foreign cooperation and                          • Innovative industries will not flourish without freer             • China is using this influence to exercise greater
      local levels                                                      investment in order to make the transition. But Chinese                         capital markets and a vigorous venture capital                      responsibility in issues where it has a major stake, such
                                                                        companies must take the lead to innovate new products                           community.                                                          as the Korean Peninsula, energy security and the
    • Address corruption at the local level                             as well as their management processes. It will also need                     • China’s emphasis on protecting intellectual property                 environment.
                                                                        more dynamic capital markets that can channel the                               rights is crucial to stimulating domestic innovation.            • Chinese diplomacy has been largely economic, but its
    • Promote the growing presence of Chinese multinational             nation’s vast savings towards innovation and ensure that                                                                                            value-neutral foreign policy may not be sustainable,
      corporations in major industries and markets                      profit rewards those who dare to take risk.                                                                                                         particularly with its major trading partners.
                                                                                                                                                     Risk Management
      throughout the global economy                                                                                                                                                                                      • More and more Chinese enterprises are venturing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            abroad, reflecting China’s increasingly open economy
                                                                                                           quot;Whatever future China has,
                                                                                                           it will be a major shaper of
    The priorities emerged from a survey prior to the Summit                                                                                         As China expands, a growing number of risks threaten                   and presenting new opportunities and challenges.
                                                                                                           the global system.quot;
    that asked which issues would have the most impact on                                                                                            to impede its growth.
    China’s development. The Summit began with the focus                                                                                             • Foreign companies fear the risk of China’s economy
                                                                                                           Ged Davis
    on how innovation has become the bedrock of the 11th                                                                                               overheating.
                                                                                                           Managing Director, World
                                                                                                           Economic Forum
    Five-Year Plan. What became clear in those discussions                                                                                           • Growing global protectionism is an even greater risk
    was that China can no longer behave as merely the                                                                                                  to companies in China, imperilling the global supply
    largest emerging economy, but must assert a role in                                                                                                chain and requiring greater regional focus.
    global affairs proportionate to its size. “Whatever future                                                                                       • China is particularly vulnerable to oil shocks.
    China has,” said Ged Davis, Managing Director, World                                                                                               Securing stable energy supplies is therefore a
    Economic Forum, “it will be a major shaper of the global                                                                                           priority in government policy.
    system.”                                                                                                                                         • Hedging against risks would require more
                                                                                                                                                       developed Chinese capital markets.                                                                     quot;Xu Guanhua
                                                                                                                                                     • Other risks are posed by political and geopolitical                                                    Minister of Science and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Technology of the People’s
                                                                                                                                                       tensions.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Republic of China


4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5
                                                                                                            China Business Summit 2006         China Business Summit 2006
Innovation


                                         “We need to increase the                                                          “We have to constantly                                                      “China has to move up the                                            “We hope to absorb
                                         development of our                                                                conduct systematic                                                          levels of development with                                           technologies from abroad
                                         independently owned                                                               innovation or else we will                                                  innovation to the high end                                           and adapt them into our
                                         technologies.”                                                                    be eliminated by the                                                        market and only in this                                              own.”
                                                                                                                           competition.”                                                               way can we continue to
                                         Cheng Siwei                                                                                                                                                   develop.”                                                            Chen Yuan
                                         Vice-Chairman, Standing                                                                                                                                                                                                            Governor, China Development
                                                                                                                           Chen Tonghai
                                         Committee, National People’s                                                                                                                                                                                                       Bank, People's Republic of
                                                                                                                           Chairman, China Petroleum &                                                 Wang Jianzhou
                                         Congress, People’s Republic of                                                                                                                                                                                                     China; Co-Chair of the China
                                                                                                                           Chemical Corporation (Sinopec),                                             Chief Executive, China Mobile
                                         China                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Business Summit 2006
                                                                                                                           People’s Republic of China                                                  Communications Corporation,
                                                                                                                                                                                                       People’s Republic of China; Co-
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Chair of the China Business
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Summit 2006




    It should come as no surprise that intellectual property              are eroding China’s cost competitiveness, turning                                        China has already made significant progress.                           Figure 2: China Equity Markets Lagging
    rights once again topped the agenda in discussions about              countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and even India into the                                Spending on R&D has risen above 1.2% of GDP from
    China. What is remarkable is that, this year, it was China’s          new Chinas.                                                                              less than 0.6% a decade ago (see Figure 1). China’s
    own officials and executives – not foreigners – who were                                                                                                       aim is to push that figure up to 2.5% by 2020, vaulting
    banging the drum loudest for greater copyright                        China’s stress on “indigenous innovation” doesn’t mean it                                it above where most OECD countries are today.
    enforcement and patent protection.                                    won’t welcome further foreign investment and technology.
                                                                          On the contrary, the business opportunities are manifold                                 Spending won’t be enough, however. While some of
    For good reason: In its newest Five-Year Plan, the                    for companies that can help China move up the value-                                     China’s top universities have become nascent centres
    government has laid out an ambitious plan to reclaim                  added ladder. In addition to offering incentives for                                     of innovation, most Chinese institutions still specialize
    China’s mantle as a world leader in science and                       research into cleaner and more efficient energy use and                                  in churning out graduates who can ace exams but
    technology. Staggering in scope, the plan seeks to redraw             renewable energy, China is promoting the development of                                  cannot think outside the box. Universities also need to
    the economic landscape in a way that will promote                     less polluting industries. More broadly, the government                                  work with companies to devise more practical
    innovation not only in China’s universities and companies,            aims to promote research and development in every field                                  curricula that will produce graduates who can go
    but in the very way policies are created and implemented.             from aerospace and biotech to semiconductors and                                         straight to work. “We need to get away from trophy
    “Innovation is the soul of a nation’s advancement and the             space shots – even missions to the moon.                                                 degrees and concentrate more on hands-on
    everlasting, driving power of national prosperity,” said                                                                                                       education if we are to encourage innovation in China,”
    Zeng Peiyan, Vice-Premier of the People’s Republic of                                                                                                          said Nandani Lynton, Vice-President, Asia,
                                                                           Figure 1: R&D Spending Increasing…and
    China.                                                                                                                                                         Thunderbird, The Garvin School of International                        Source: Datastream
                                                                           Shifting towards the Private Sector                                                     Management, People’s Republic of China.
    After 20 years of stunning growth, China’s old resource-
    guzzling, pollution-spewing engine of an economy cannot                                                                                                        Too much of the research at Chinese universities stays                The good news for innovators is that the government is
    run at the pace it has for much longer. Not only is China                                                                                                      locked in the lab. The government is trying to get                    determined to beef up its intellectual property regime. “Let
    choking on the environmental problems created by                                                                                                               educational institutions to work with companies to                    me put it this way,” said Xu Guanhua, Minister of Science
    inefficient use of coal and oil, but it faces growing risks to                                                                                                 move discoveries more quickly into profitable                         and Technology of the People’s Republic of China,
    future growth. China is far too dependent on imported oil                                                                                                      applications. Despite China’s massive foreign                         “without effective protection for intellectual property what
    and other raw materials, too reliant on exports –                                                                                                              exchange reserves and vast public savings, however,                   we have said about indigenous innovation would be
    particularly to the United States – and too accustomed to                                                                                                      venture financing remains scarce for researchers trying               nothing more than empty words.”
    competing largely on price rather than quality.                                                                                                                to commercialize discoveries. With the largely state-
                                                                                                                                                                   owned banking sector unreceptive and the stock
    China’s entry into the World Trade Organization five years                                                                                                     market still struggling (see Figure 2), financial experts
    ago has made innovation an even more pressing                                                                                                                  say venture finance will not take off until China’s
    imperative. As China opens up its markets, its companies                                                                                                       capital markets are more mature.
    and banks face greater competition from more advanced
    global players. At the same time, rising wages at home


                                                                            Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators 2006-1



6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          7
                                                                                                                             China Business Summit 2006      China Business Summit 2006
Risk Management

                                                                   China’s policy imperatives
                                                                                                                                                                                                           “Even an unfriendly                                                   quot;We need to improve our
     Figure 3: Chinese Companies Raising More                                                                                                                                                              external environment will                                             legal system and also the
                                                                   “We are going to conduct another major round of
     Equity Overseas                                                                                                                                                                                       not block China’s                                                     corporate system as well as
                                                                   innovation. We will be a society based on scientific
                                                                                                                                                                                                           development.”                                                         our cultural system.quot;
                                                                   development with innovation taking centre stage,”
                                                                   declared Zeng Peiyan, Vice-Premier of the People’s                                                                                      Li Ruogu                                                              Tu Guangshao
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Chairman and President, Export-                                       Vice-Chairman, China Securities
                                                                   Republic of China, at the opening of the China Business
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Import Bank of China, People's                                        Regulatory Commission,
                                                                   Summit 2006. “China’s 11th Five-Year Plan outlines the                                                                                  Republic of China                                                     People's Republic of China
                                                                   national strategy to develop indigenous innovation. Our
                                                                   ability in indigenous innovation still lags behind, and some
                                                                   technologies rely on imports. For example, 80% of
                                                                   integrated chips in China are imported,” echoed Zhang
                                                                   Xiaoqiang, Vice-Chairman, National Development and
                                                                   Reform Commission, People’s Republic of China.

                                                                   Those in the business community welcomed China’s
                                                                   creative imperative. “We have to constantly conduct
                                                                                                                                                         As solid as China’s growth has been (see Figure 1) and as                           Chinese companies, on the other hand, are pondering the
                                                                   systematic innovation or else we will be eliminated by the
      Source: Bloomberg, Datastream

                                                                                                                                                         steady as the government’s hand might seem, a growing                               risks of greater foreign competition, how to offset it by
                                                                   competition,” said Chen Tonghai, Chairman, China
                                                                                                                                                         list of risks could impede or alter China’s progress.                               expanding overseas. “The risk for many Chinese
                                                                   Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), People’s
    The government is also adamant that companies will have                                                                                                                                                                                  companies is integrating foreign companies into their
                                                                   Republic of China. “China is one of the fastest-growing
    to be at the forefront of China’s innovation drive (see                                                                                                                                                                                  portfolio, how to make it work,” said Edward C. Tse,
                                                                   economies in the world and one of the engines of the
                                                                                                                                                          Figure 1: China’s Growth Still Outpacing World
    Figure 3). Caught between a looming invasion by foreign                                                                                                                                                                                  Managing Director, Greater China, Booz Allen Hamilton,
                                                                   global economy. We have to bring the latest, cutting-edge
    imports, they must venture abroad into markets where                                                                                                                                                                                     People’s Republic of China.
                                                                   technology to China. There’s no way out,” said Winfried
    consumers see them just as they saw the Japanese,              Vahland, President and Chief Executive Officer,
    Taiwanese and Koreans that came before them – cheap                                                                                                                                                                                      Many risks lay beyond companies’ control. Political
                                                                   Volkswagen Group China, People’s Republic of China.
    and inferior. Only by innovating in quality can they hope to                                                                                                                                                                             manoeuvring in anticipation of the 2007 meeting of the
    win market share overseas.                                                                                                                                                                                                               Central Committee of the Communist Party of China to
                                                                                  China’s Patent Office Busier
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             elect the new Party leadership, for example, has
    As they try to shift from manufacturing into services,                                                                                                                                                                                   distracted the bureaucracy, imposing delays and
    however, companies also need to find innovative ways to                                                                                                                                                                                  constraints on foreign investment. And there are utter wild
    run. “China may need technological innovation less than                                                                                                                                                                                  cards, such as an avian flu pandemic or the possibility of
    innovation in management, institutions and processes,”                                                                                                                                                                                   an armed conflict on the Korean peninsula.
    said Wang Jianzhou, Chief Executive, China Mobile
    Communications Corporation, People’s Republic of China;                                                                                                                                                                                  One of the greater risks, though, is raised in the World
    Co-Chair, China Business Summit 2006.                                                                                                                                                                                                    Economic Forum’s scenario report China and the World:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Scenarios to 2025: an increasingly protectionist world that
    Ultimately, however, the most difficult hurdle China may                                                                                                                                                                                 forces China and the rest of Asia to turn within for growth.
    face in igniting its innovative spark is itself. Beyond deep                                                                                                                                                                             The breakdown of the Doha Round appears to have
    pockets, governments have generally proven poor agents                                                                                                                                                                                   increased the plausibility of this scenario, raising the risks
                                                                   Source: World Intellectual Property Organization

    of creativity, tending instead to stifle it. China may also                                                                                                                                                                              to China and businesses in the country. “What this implies
                                                                                                                                                           Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2006
                                                                   …And Chinese Inventors Active in Overseas
    need to overcome its traditional fear of failure if it is to                                                                                                                                                                             is that the global supply chain is going to be severely
                                                                                  Patenting
    successfully reintroduce innovation to its cultural mix.                                                                                                                                                                                 affected and that you’re going to, as a business, have to
                                                                                                                                                         Foreign multinationals tend to focus on risks to China’s                            develop and depend upon regional supply chains,” said
                                                                                                                                                         domestic economy. What is the likelihood of                                         Jean-Pierre Lehmann, Professor of International Political
                                                                                                                                                         overinvestment and overcapacity caving in? How is                                   Economy, IMD (International Institute for Management
                                                                                                                                                         deregulation changing the business landscape and will it                            Development), Switzerland. As bilateral trade agreements
                                                                                                                                                         increase or reduce corruption? Some even discuss the                                multiply, the danger is that increasingly complex rules will
                                                                                                                                                         need to offset their China risk with a presence in Vietnam                          raise transaction costs and complicate trade.
                                                                                                                                                         or Malaysia. Perhaps the biggest risk foreign firms are
                                                                                                                                                         trying to fathom, however, is the risk of not being in China
                                                                                                                                                         at all.

                                                                   Source: World Intellectual Property Organization

8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  9
                                                                                                                      China Business Summit 2006   China Business Summit 2006
These home improvements are vital, as David Dollar,
                                        quot;Today we see a lot of risks                                                                                                                                      “It is not easy for companies
                                        in the private sector and the                                                                                                                                     from the West, who are
                                                                         Country Director, China and Mongolia, World Bank,                                                                                                                    Environmental risk to sustainable Chinese growth
                                        country in general is borne                                                                                                                                       often seen as ‘wolves’, to
                                                                         Beijing warned: “To keep growing quickly, China needs to
                                        by the banking system,                                                                                                                                            get a foothold in the Chinese
                                                                         improve its institutions.” For example, a basic impediment                                                                                                           China’s GDP is expected to quadruple by 2020,
                                        which takes on most of the                                                                                                                                        market and generate a
                                                                         to implementing much of China’s transformation plan is                                                                                                               propelling aggregate energy use towards US levels and
                                        corporate risk.quot;                                                                                                                                                  profit.”
                                                                         the lack of safety nets for unemployment, healthcare and                                                                                                             presenting challenges to overall environmental
                                        John P. Drzik                                                                                                                                                     Liu Changle
                                                                         retirement. Without them, the Chinese will continue to                                                                                                               management. Pressure is rising on policy-makers and
                                        President, Mercer Oliver Wyman                                                                                                                                    Chairman of the Board and
                                                                         save at prodigious rates, instead of channelling funds to                                                                                                            CEOs alike to improve energy efficiency and to take
                                        (MMC), USA                                                                                                                                                        CEO, Phoenix Satellite Television
                                                                         more productive purposes. The absence of social security                                                                                                             measures to mitigate widespread potential
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Co., Hong Kong SAR; Co-Chair
                                                                                                                                                                                                          of the China Business Summit
                                                                         also limits entrepreneurship and the willingness of                                                                                                                  environmental damage to water supplies and air quality.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          2006
                                                                         investors to take risks. “Savings are high because there is                                                                                                          There is an increasing recognition of environmental
                                                                         insecurity,” said Pierre E. Cohade, President, Asia Pacific                                                                                                          stress in Chinese cities, the fragility of several of China’s
                                                                         Region, Goodyear Tire Management Company                                                                                                                             multiple ecosystems and the risks posed by
                                                                         (Shanghai), People’s Republic of China.                                                                                                                              environmental degradation to China’s long-term
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              sustainable growth path. “The central government
                                                                         The weak rule of law is another risk. Take intellectual                                                                                                              attaches great importance to building an
     China’s vulnerability to imported oil supplies is also              property rights. Enforcement of IPR protection, while                                       Yet, the obstacles and risks that could block China’s                    environmentally friendly society,” said Zhang Xiaoqiang,
     fostering a well publicized push overseas to secure oil-rich        improving, remains patchy due to feeble commitment at                                       economic transformation offer the very commercial                        Vice-Chairman, National Development and Reform
     friends. Beijing’s diplomats and executives have become             the local level and the lack of a sufficiently independent                                  opportunities that could drive new, sustainable growth.                  Commission, People’s Republic of China. Zhang told
     frequent visitors to Central Asia, Africa and South                 legal system. This is not just a problem for foreign                                        Japan and the US could supply China with the technology                  participants that China aims to reduce energy
     America. China has also assumed a more proactive role in            investors. In fact, about 90% of IPR infringements involve                                  to enhance energy efficiency. The lack of social safety                  consumption of per unit GDP by 20% and reduce total
     settling diplomatic disputes in areas it depends on for oil,        domestic firms. “The general issue is the extraordinary                                     nets represents a “humongous opportunity not just for                    emissions by 10% over the next five years. This goal
     such as Iran.                                                       degree of decentralization in China,” Dollar explained.                                     improving the quality of life in China but for unleashing all            will be achieved through the reduction of pollution at
                                                                                                                                                                     these savings,” said Cohade. He predicted that “empty                    source, implementation of new technologies and
     While those efforts may help mitigate the risk of an oil                                                                                                        nesters”, parents born during the years of the Cultural                  innovation. Market factors, such as adjustment to the
     supply shock, for those in China the ability to offset risk                                                                                                     Revolution whose single child has already grown up and                   price of oil, may also help this process. While Zhang
     would be greatly enhanced if its stock and bond markets                                                                                                         left home, would be “the engine of consumption” in                       said that China would continue to rely on coal as its
                                                                          Figure 2: Bank Loans Dominate Capital
     were more developed. “Today we see a lot of risks in the                                                                                                        coming years. “Understanding the empty nesters is going                  major source of energy, the installation of clean coal
                                                                          Structure in China
     private sector and the country in general is borne by the                                                                                                       to be critical” for retailers and financial services providers.          technology and the increasing use of nuclear power –
     banking system, which takes on most of the corporate                                                                                                                                                                                     set to rise to 4% of overall energy production by 2020
     risk,” said John P. Drzik, President, Mercer Oliver Wyman                                                                                                                                                                                – will help China to achieve its ambitious goals. Failure
     (MMC), USA (see Figure 2). Insurers also want the                                                                                                                                                                                        to act now to shore up the environmental foundations
     freedom to invest in a wider range of assets to enable                                                                                                                                                                                   of China’s growth – locally, nationally and globally –
     China’s savers to better hedge risks to the value of their                                                                                                                                                                               risks human and political costs and future economic
     nest eggs. “Rome was not built in a day,” cautioned Tu                                                                                                                                                                                   growth.
     Guangshao, Vice-Chairman, China Securities Regulatory
     Commission, People’s Republic of China. Before China                                                                                                                                                                                          China’s Spending on the Environment
     can further liberalize its capital markets, he said: “We                                                                                                                                                                                                    Rising…
     need to improve our legal system and also the corporate
     system as well as our cultural system.”




                                                                           Source: Nicholas Lardy, Institute of International Economics




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Source: State Environmental Protection Administration Reports on the Economy 2000-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2004, China Statistical Yearbook, press accounts
10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 11
                                                                                                                                  China Business Summit 2006   China Business Summit 2006
Sustainable Growth


                                                      “The domestic service sector                                            “I don't see China becoming                                               quot;Local governments want to                                                             “Internationalization is not
                                                      will grow very fast, faster                                             a service centre to the world                                             focus on increasing GDP                                                                an end in itself; it is a means
                                                      than the rest of the                                                    anytime soon. To be at the                                                and, in doing so, favour                                                               to help you grow and
                                                      economy, but it will mainly                                             same level of critical mass                                               vested local interests such as                                                         develop.”
                                                      cater to the local market. In                                           as India at a global level –                                              factories that may also be
                                                      general, we will not see                                                it's probably about 7 to 10                                               polluters.quot;                                                                            Yang Yuanqing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Chairman of the Board of
                                                      large-scale service practice                                            years away.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Lenovo Group, People’s
                                                      to the world.”                                                                                                                                    Pan Yue
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Republic of China; Co-Chair of
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Vice-Minister of China's State
                                                                                                                              Sriram Venkataraman
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               the China Business Summit
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Environmental Protection
                                                                                                                              Senior Vice-President and Head
                                                      David Li Daokui
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Administration
                                                                                                                              of Asia Pacific, Infosys
                                                      Mansfield Freeman Chair
                                                                                                                              Technologies, Japan
                                                      Professor of Economics,
                                                      Tsinghua University, People's
                                                      Republic of China




     China’s chief economic challenge for the next decade is                              The key to that transformation was obvious from the                        For that reason, the government is trying to overhaul               Protection Administration. He called for an honest
     clear: how to shift from an export-led growth model to                               Summit theme: Sustainable Growth through Innovation:                       the economy to make China a greener, more energy-                   evaluation of the state of China’s environment and
     one driven by consumption and innovation, while                                      China’s Creative Imperative. Among the buzzwords of                        efficient nation. China has been moving, for example,               urged local governments to adopt sustainable
     maintaining social stability and avoiding a hard landing.                            development, “sustainability”, “innovation” and “creativity”               to gradually reduce subsidies on fuel in order to                   practices. “Not all central government policies are fully
     When an economy as big as China’s – now the fourth                                   are practically regarded as off-the-shelf ingredients for a                remove the incentive for waste and make consumers                   implemented in the localities,” noted Zhang Xiaoqiang,
     largest in the world – is growing at a 10%-plus clip, that                           magic potion to combat the pressures of globalization.                     bear the true cost of oil. The government is investing              Vice-Chairman of China’s National Development
     task is the macroeconomic equivalent of getting a                                    But China’s current Five-Year Plan offers a real recipe for                in new technologies for oil and gas exploration and                 Reform Commission. “We need to improve the quality
     charging elephant to turn the right corner without                                   action that can hardly be dismissed as glib: stimulate                     financing the development of renewable energy such                  of our civil servants and the whole administrative
     crashing or slipping. But make the turn the giant must.                              domestic demand, shift investment away from industries                     as hydropower, biomass and wind power (see Figure                   mechanism has to deal in a balanced way with short-
     Heavy fixed asset investment has led to overcapacity in                              with too much capacity such as automobiles and steel,                      2). China is also trying to adopt cleaner ways to burn              and long-term issues, all of which have to be
     many industries, while China’s high savings rate of over                             shore up the financial system so that it can better absorb                 domestic coal and plans to build 40 nuclear power                   coordinated on a national basis.”
     40% of GDP is unsustainable, particularly as the                                     the savings of Chinese, and mobilize more capital to                       plants in the next 15 years. “In China, most of our
     population ages. Meanwhile, in 2004, China has the                                   productive investments. As for innovation, the plan                        experts and the public believe nuclear energy is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Figure 2: Alternative Energy Expected to
     largest energy imbalance in Asia (see Figure 1) and                                  commits China to increasing R&D spending from the                          relatively safe and clean. So the Chinese government
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Rise with Demand…
     pollution was estimated to have resulted in economic                                 current 1.2% of GDP to 2.4%, just above the OECD                           believes we should still actively develop nuclear
     losses equivalent to 3.05% of GDP. “We cannot continue                               average. “Only by constructing new ways of development                     energy,” said Zhang Xiaoqiang, Vice-Chairman,
     with the traditional development approach and growth                                 can China enhance overall growth,” said Summit Co-                         National Development and Reform Commission,
     pattern,” concluded Zeng Peiyan, Vice-Premier of the                                 Chair Chen Yuan, Governor of the China Development                         People’s Republic of China.
     People’s Republic of China, in a special address to open                             Bank.
     the China Business Summit 2006. “We have to transform                                                                                                           At the same time, the government is trying to push
     our approach.”                                                                       But there are obstacles and risks. Perhaps the most                        industry into shape, phasing out inefficient factories
                                                                                          talked about risk is that posed by increasingly volatile oil               and promoting cleaner, more efficient ones. It is
                                                                                          prices. Since becoming a net oil importer in 1993, China                   imposing tighter emission standards on vehicles,
      Figure 1: China Has the Largest Energy
                                                                                          has emerged as the world’s second largest energy                           clamping down on overloaded, gas-guzzling trucks,
      Imbalance in Asia
                                                                                          consumer, increasingly dependent on imported oil.                          and even changing the way it evaluates local officials
                                                                                                                                                                     to rate them not just on economic growth but also on
                                                                                          China’s policy-makers are cognizant that China’s                           energy efficiency.
                                                                                          dependency on imported oil – and its wasteful use of it –
                                                                                          is not only a drain on development, but that its growing                   Efforts to boost China’s energy efficiency, its economic
                                                                                          demand for the increasingly scarce resource also raises                    expansion and environmental protection have been
                                                                                          the long-term probability of China getting into a conflict                 undermined by China’s decentralized political system.
                                                                                          over oil, whether commercial or military.                                  “Local governments want to focus on increasing GDP
                                                                                                                                                                     and, in doing so, favour vested local interests such as
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Source: US Energy Information Administration, China Daily, International Energy Outlook
                                                                                                                                                                     factories that may also be polluters,” said Pan Yue,                  2006

                                                                                                                                                                     Vice-Minister of China’s State Environmental


       Source: IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries and Non-OECD Countries 2003; World
       Bank World Development Report 2005; CIA World Factbook
12                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   13
                                                                                                                               China Business Summit 2006      China Business Summit 2006
Globalization

     The onus for action must also fall on enterprises. “Many     The maturation of China’s economy will surely speed up
     companies in China have focused on the short term such       its transformation – naturally. The services sector already                                                               quot;I can assure you that                                               “China is engaged and
                                                                                                                                                                                            Japan's next administration                                          building partnerships to
     as on increasing revenues from sales and marketing,” said    contributes almost 40% of GDP, Hellmut Schutte, Dean,
                                                                                                                                                                                            will share the basic                                                 send a message to the
     Zhang Weiying, Vice-Dean, Guanghua School of                 Asia Campus, INSEAD, Singapore, remarked (see Figures
                                                                                                                                                                                            recognition that the rise of                                         world that it will play by the
     Management, Peking University. Instead of focusing on        3 and 4). “As manufacturing productivity growth comes in,                                                                 China is an opportunity for                                          rules of the game. Let the
     racking up double-digit sales, enterprises have to put       more people will be laid off with many of them starting                                                                   all of us rather than a threat                                       rules of the game be fair.”
                                                                                                                                                                                            against us.quot;
     more effort and investment into R&D and generating           their own little shop along the street,” he explained. “It’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Kapil Sibal
     sustainable profits, Zhang advised. Said Chen Tonghai,       pretty obvious that as China’s economy grows,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Minister of Science and
                                                                                                                                                                                            Yasuhisa Shiozaki
     Chairman of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation           consumption patterns will change, with very high growth                                                                                                                                        Technology and Earth Sciences
                                                                                                                                                                                            Senior Vice-Minister for Foreign
     (Sinopec), which leads Chinese enterprises in annual         in the leisure industries, healthcare and education.” The                                                                                                                                      of India
                                                                                                                                                                                            Affairs of Japan
     patent applications: “In our industry, we not only have to   elephant is making the turn, but will it keep its balance?
     look for new types of energy but to develop
     environmentally friendly products. We have to constantly
     conduct systematic innovation or else we will be
     eliminated by the competition.”



                                                                                                                                                          In 30 years, China has transformed itself from a                     The recent agreement to increase China’s voting
      Figure 3: Chinese Economy Gradually                          Figure 4: …But Services Sector Still Has                                               command economy inhospitable to overseas investors                   power in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), albeit
      Shifting towards Services…                                   Room to Grow                                                                           to an emerging free enterprise market that attracts the              by only a small percentage, is an acknowledgement of
                                                                                                                                                          biggest share of global foreign direct investment.                   its rising profile – and mounting responsibilities.
                                                                                                                                                          China is a key driver of globalization and one of its                Geopolitically, China’s participation in the six-party
                                                                                                                                                          major beneficiaries. The world’s third biggest trader                talks on North Korea’s nuclear programme has been
                                                                                                                                                          and the fourth largest economy, China combines                       pivotal. And as a permanent member of the UN
                                                                                                                                                          geographic and demographic heft with purchasing                      Security Council, Beijing is playing a key behind-the-
                                                                                                                                                          power and manufacturing prowess.                                     scenes part in the selection of the next UN Secretary-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               General, who is expected to be an Asian. “Anything
                                                                                                                                                          Even so, China is still a developing country. China’s                that happens in China will have a global impact so we
                                                                                                                                                          per capita GDP is above that of the Philippines but                  have to be globally responsible,” said Wang Jianmao,
                                                                                                                                                          below that of Thailand. In the World Economic                        Professor of Economics and Associate Dean, China
                                                                                                                                                          Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007,                     Europe International Business School (CEIBS).
                                                                                                                                                          China’s competitiveness ranking dropped from 48th to
                                                                                                                                                          54th. According to the World Bank, over the past two                 Chinese diplomacy, however, has largely been driven
                                                                                                                                                          decades, China accounted for over 75% of the                         by pragmatic economic motives, particularly the need
                                                                                                                                                          poverty reduction achieved in developing economies.                  to meet its burgeoning energy, raw materials and
                                                                                                                                                          Yet, today, more than 135 million people, mainly in                  components demands. China has been an
                                                                                                                                                          China’s western and interior regions, scrape by on                   enthusiastic driver of integration with South-East Asia
                                                                                                                                                          less than a dollar a day, without the benefits of clean              and has also forged strong commercial links with
       Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2005                      Source: CIA World Factbook; 2005 estimates when available
                                                                                                                                                          water, adequate healthcare and education.                            resource-rich countries in Central Asia, Latin America,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               the Middle East and Africa, as well as Australia.
                                                                                                                                                          That said, China has become a leading player in the                  Energy imports rose by 55% in the first four months of
                                                                                                                                                          international community, both through the roles it has               this year to US$ 21.3 billion.
                                                                                                                                                          sought such as its membership in the World Trade
                                                                                                                                                          Organization (WTO) and those that have been thrust
                                                                                                                                                          upon it. Beijing has emerged as a role model for
                                                                                                                                                          developing economies, its non-judgmental foreign
                                                                                                                                                          policy serving as a counterweight to western
                                                                                                                                                          developed countries, particularly the United States.




14                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                15
                                                                                                                       China Business Summit 2006   China Business Summit 2006
China Business Summit 2006
China Business Summit 2006
China Business Summit 2006
China Business Summit 2006
China Business Summit 2006
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China Business Summit 2006

  • 1. WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM China Business Summit 2006 Sustainable Growth through Innovation: China’s Creative Imperative Beijing, 10-11 September INSIGHTS
  • 2. Contents This publication is also available in electronic form on the World Economic Forum website at the following address: China Business Summit 2006 report: http://www.weforum.org/summitreports/china2006 (HTML) The electronic version of this report allows access to a richer level of content Preface 3 from meeting, including the weblog, photographs and session summaries. The report is also available as a PDF: http://www.weforum.org/pdf/summitreports/china2006.pdf (PDF) Summary – Sustainable Growth through Innovation: China’s Creative Imperative 4 Other specific information on the China Business Summit 2006, Beijing, 10-11 September, can be found at the following links: Innovation 6 Meeting News www.weforum.org/china Photographs www.pbase.com/forumweb/china2006 Programme www.weforum.org/china/programme Interviews www.weforum.org/china/indepth Risk Management 9 Partners www.weforum.org/china/partners KnowledgeConcierge www.weforum.org/china/kc Weblog www.forumblog.org Sustainable Growth 12 Globalization 15 The Creative Imperative in China 18 Acknowledgements 20 The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the World Economic Forum. World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 E-mail: contact@weforum.org www.weforum.org © 2006 World Economic Forum All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system. REF: 121006 1 China Business Summit 2006
  • 3. Preface The China Business Summit 2006 was designed to generate insight and guide action to improve the alignment of China’s public policy, development and industry agendas. The frank and open discussions in Beijing laid bare the reality that China today is something of an anomaly in terms of modern economic history. It has accumulated now close to US$ 1 trillion in foreign currency reserves, while at the same time hundreds of millions of its citizens still live on less than US$ 500 a year. Or, as one pundit put it recently, China is “a developing country that has vast global impact.”* The report that follows examines this duality, particularly in the context of the newly endorsed 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010) which focuses on implementing “people- centred” and “scientific” development policies. Concepts, still not yet fully understood in terms of their long-term policy and economic impact, but much better appreciated in terms of their growing importance by those executives who engaged the senior officials participating in the Summit. China is now the world’s fourth largest economy – its per capita GDP is well over US$ 1,000 and it has surpassed the United States as the leading destination for foreign direct investment. These accomplishments, however, have led to the realization that this rapid economic success has also introduced new challenges requiring innovative government policies and creative business solutions if the country is to maintain its strong record of growth. During the week of the Summit, the Chinese government released its first measurement of the country’s “Green GDP” which subtracts the cost of natural resources and environmental degradation from total GDP. In 2004, the economic loss from environmental pollution amounted to 3.05% of GDP (US$ 64 billion). Thus, the China Business Summit 2006 was timely in bringing key stakeholders together to rethink and reshape the country’s growth and industry agendas in this changing development context. China’s first quarter GDP is already 10% greater than a year before and concerns are growing over excessive investment in specific industries and the need to tighten monetary policy. Although fears of excessive growth loom large, the new Five-Year Plan is focused squarely on reducing rural-urban income disparities and uplifting the living standards of the 800 million Chinese earning less than US$ 1,000 a year. Readers of this report will find that addressing both challenges requires shifting from investment and export driven economic growth to sustainable growth driven by technology innovation and domestic consumption. The modalities of achieving this appear to be at the centre of many more discussions in the future. Lee Howell Director, Asia * Martin Wolf, “Why Beijing should dip into China’s corporate piggy bank,” Financial Times, 4 October 2006 3 China Business Summit 2006
  • 4. Summary – Sustainable Growth through Innovation: China’s Creative Imperative “We have to switch from “What will truly spur “One major question is Sustainable Growth our previous industrial innovation within Chinese whether Chinese innovation development mode, from companies is the recognition will occur only in products, consuming large amounts of of the real value of or more importantly will The chief economic challenge is to shift from an export- natural resources to a intellectual property rights.” occur in business institutions led growth model to one driven by domestic consumption development mode based – in processes, organization on science and technology Maurice Levy and management style. and innovation. Chairman and Chief Executive as well as innovation.” That locus of creativity could • A key obstacle is the lack of social safety nets, which Officer, Publicis Groupe, France; actually be more powerful hinders the deployment of savings to more productive Co-Chair of the China Business Zhang Xiaoqiang than innovation in new Summit 2006 purposes and discourages entrepreneurship. Vice-Chairman, National products.” Development and Reform • Reflecting the macroeconomic paradigm change that Commission, People's Republic Tom Manning needs to take place, Chinese firms must transform of China Chief Executive Officer, China themselves from focusing on market share to focusing Board Directors, Hong Kong on sustainable profits. SAR • Achieving energy security with environmental responsibility and efficiency is top priority. • Addressing the absence of safety nets and the need for Innovation The economic model that has given China over two Acquiring adequate energy for China’s development will energy efficiency and environmental protection offers decades of remarkable growth is getting an overhaul. continue to be the paramount challenge, one commercial opportunities that could drive new, From now on, sustainable growth and development will compounded by the urgent need to find cleaner and more China needs innovation to produce less energy- sustainable growth. depend on China’s ability to innovate. That was the efficient means of delivering it. China’s leaders must also intensive economic growth and to reduce its message from the more than 500 senior government, solve the riddle of how to ensure that future development dependency on foreign technology. Globalization business, media and academic leaders at the China reverses growing disparities of income. Moreover, they • China’s companies have to innovate to fend off rival Business Summit 2006. To accomplish this will require must somehow unleash the nation’s innovative potential in low-cost manufacturing centres and increasing that policy-makers and businesses keep the following a way that can arrest China’s growing trade deficit in foreign competition in Chinese markets. Both rich and poor, China is a paradox. It is the fourth priorities at the forefront of their agenda: intellectual property. • China’s emphasis on R&D in cutting-edge industries largest economy in the world but still has millions living presents new opportunities for foreign investors. below US$ 1,000 per capital GDP. • Increase the protection of intellectual property rights of Unleashing China’s creative impulse will require dramatic • Universities need to work more closely with the • China’s population and economic size are giving it Chinese and foreign companies changes to the nation’s educational system, particularly its private sector to develop curricula that produce greater clout in the global community, with increasing universities – the crucibles of China’s creative leadership. graduates more suited to the workplace. influence in international organizations. • Improve environmental protection at the provincial and China will continue to need foreign cooperation and • Innovative industries will not flourish without freer • China is using this influence to exercise greater local levels investment in order to make the transition. But Chinese capital markets and a vigorous venture capital responsibility in issues where it has a major stake, such companies must take the lead to innovate new products community. as the Korean Peninsula, energy security and the • Address corruption at the local level as well as their management processes. It will also need • China’s emphasis on protecting intellectual property environment. more dynamic capital markets that can channel the rights is crucial to stimulating domestic innovation. • Chinese diplomacy has been largely economic, but its • Promote the growing presence of Chinese multinational nation’s vast savings towards innovation and ensure that value-neutral foreign policy may not be sustainable, corporations in major industries and markets profit rewards those who dare to take risk. particularly with its major trading partners. Risk Management throughout the global economy • More and more Chinese enterprises are venturing abroad, reflecting China’s increasingly open economy quot;Whatever future China has, it will be a major shaper of The priorities emerged from a survey prior to the Summit As China expands, a growing number of risks threaten and presenting new opportunities and challenges. the global system.quot; that asked which issues would have the most impact on to impede its growth. China’s development. The Summit began with the focus • Foreign companies fear the risk of China’s economy Ged Davis on how innovation has become the bedrock of the 11th overheating. Managing Director, World Economic Forum Five-Year Plan. What became clear in those discussions • Growing global protectionism is an even greater risk was that China can no longer behave as merely the to companies in China, imperilling the global supply largest emerging economy, but must assert a role in chain and requiring greater regional focus. global affairs proportionate to its size. “Whatever future • China is particularly vulnerable to oil shocks. China has,” said Ged Davis, Managing Director, World Securing stable energy supplies is therefore a Economic Forum, “it will be a major shaper of the global priority in government policy. system.” • Hedging against risks would require more developed Chinese capital markets. quot;Xu Guanhua • Other risks are posed by political and geopolitical Minister of Science and Technology of the People’s tensions. Republic of China 4 5 China Business Summit 2006 China Business Summit 2006
  • 5. Innovation “We need to increase the “We have to constantly “China has to move up the “We hope to absorb development of our conduct systematic levels of development with technologies from abroad independently owned innovation or else we will innovation to the high end and adapt them into our technologies.” be eliminated by the market and only in this own.” competition.” way can we continue to Cheng Siwei develop.” Chen Yuan Vice-Chairman, Standing Governor, China Development Chen Tonghai Committee, National People’s Bank, People's Republic of Chairman, China Petroleum & Wang Jianzhou Congress, People’s Republic of China; Co-Chair of the China Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Chief Executive, China Mobile China Business Summit 2006 People’s Republic of China Communications Corporation, People’s Republic of China; Co- Chair of the China Business Summit 2006 It should come as no surprise that intellectual property are eroding China’s cost competitiveness, turning China has already made significant progress. Figure 2: China Equity Markets Lagging rights once again topped the agenda in discussions about countries like Vietnam, Indonesia and even India into the Spending on R&D has risen above 1.2% of GDP from China. What is remarkable is that, this year, it was China’s new Chinas. less than 0.6% a decade ago (see Figure 1). China’s own officials and executives – not foreigners – who were aim is to push that figure up to 2.5% by 2020, vaulting banging the drum loudest for greater copyright China’s stress on “indigenous innovation” doesn’t mean it it above where most OECD countries are today. enforcement and patent protection. won’t welcome further foreign investment and technology. On the contrary, the business opportunities are manifold Spending won’t be enough, however. While some of For good reason: In its newest Five-Year Plan, the for companies that can help China move up the value- China’s top universities have become nascent centres government has laid out an ambitious plan to reclaim added ladder. In addition to offering incentives for of innovation, most Chinese institutions still specialize China’s mantle as a world leader in science and research into cleaner and more efficient energy use and in churning out graduates who can ace exams but technology. Staggering in scope, the plan seeks to redraw renewable energy, China is promoting the development of cannot think outside the box. Universities also need to the economic landscape in a way that will promote less polluting industries. More broadly, the government work with companies to devise more practical innovation not only in China’s universities and companies, aims to promote research and development in every field curricula that will produce graduates who can go but in the very way policies are created and implemented. from aerospace and biotech to semiconductors and straight to work. “We need to get away from trophy “Innovation is the soul of a nation’s advancement and the space shots – even missions to the moon. degrees and concentrate more on hands-on everlasting, driving power of national prosperity,” said education if we are to encourage innovation in China,” Zeng Peiyan, Vice-Premier of the People’s Republic of said Nandani Lynton, Vice-President, Asia, Figure 1: R&D Spending Increasing…and China. Thunderbird, The Garvin School of International Source: Datastream Shifting towards the Private Sector Management, People’s Republic of China. After 20 years of stunning growth, China’s old resource- guzzling, pollution-spewing engine of an economy cannot Too much of the research at Chinese universities stays The good news for innovators is that the government is run at the pace it has for much longer. Not only is China locked in the lab. The government is trying to get determined to beef up its intellectual property regime. “Let choking on the environmental problems created by educational institutions to work with companies to me put it this way,” said Xu Guanhua, Minister of Science inefficient use of coal and oil, but it faces growing risks to move discoveries more quickly into profitable and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, future growth. China is far too dependent on imported oil applications. Despite China’s massive foreign “without effective protection for intellectual property what and other raw materials, too reliant on exports – exchange reserves and vast public savings, however, we have said about indigenous innovation would be particularly to the United States – and too accustomed to venture financing remains scarce for researchers trying nothing more than empty words.” competing largely on price rather than quality. to commercialize discoveries. With the largely state- owned banking sector unreceptive and the stock China’s entry into the World Trade Organization five years market still struggling (see Figure 2), financial experts ago has made innovation an even more pressing say venture finance will not take off until China’s imperative. As China opens up its markets, its companies capital markets are more mature. and banks face greater competition from more advanced global players. At the same time, rising wages at home Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators 2006-1 6 7 China Business Summit 2006 China Business Summit 2006
  • 6. Risk Management China’s policy imperatives “Even an unfriendly quot;We need to improve our Figure 3: Chinese Companies Raising More external environment will legal system and also the “We are going to conduct another major round of Equity Overseas not block China’s corporate system as well as innovation. We will be a society based on scientific development.” our cultural system.quot; development with innovation taking centre stage,” declared Zeng Peiyan, Vice-Premier of the People’s Li Ruogu Tu Guangshao Chairman and President, Export- Vice-Chairman, China Securities Republic of China, at the opening of the China Business Import Bank of China, People's Regulatory Commission, Summit 2006. “China’s 11th Five-Year Plan outlines the Republic of China People's Republic of China national strategy to develop indigenous innovation. Our ability in indigenous innovation still lags behind, and some technologies rely on imports. For example, 80% of integrated chips in China are imported,” echoed Zhang Xiaoqiang, Vice-Chairman, National Development and Reform Commission, People’s Republic of China. Those in the business community welcomed China’s creative imperative. “We have to constantly conduct As solid as China’s growth has been (see Figure 1) and as Chinese companies, on the other hand, are pondering the systematic innovation or else we will be eliminated by the Source: Bloomberg, Datastream steady as the government’s hand might seem, a growing risks of greater foreign competition, how to offset it by competition,” said Chen Tonghai, Chairman, China list of risks could impede or alter China’s progress. expanding overseas. “The risk for many Chinese Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), People’s The government is also adamant that companies will have companies is integrating foreign companies into their Republic of China. “China is one of the fastest-growing to be at the forefront of China’s innovation drive (see portfolio, how to make it work,” said Edward C. Tse, economies in the world and one of the engines of the Figure 1: China’s Growth Still Outpacing World Figure 3). Caught between a looming invasion by foreign Managing Director, Greater China, Booz Allen Hamilton, global economy. We have to bring the latest, cutting-edge imports, they must venture abroad into markets where People’s Republic of China. technology to China. There’s no way out,” said Winfried consumers see them just as they saw the Japanese, Vahland, President and Chief Executive Officer, Taiwanese and Koreans that came before them – cheap Many risks lay beyond companies’ control. Political Volkswagen Group China, People’s Republic of China. and inferior. Only by innovating in quality can they hope to manoeuvring in anticipation of the 2007 meeting of the win market share overseas. Central Committee of the Communist Party of China to China’s Patent Office Busier elect the new Party leadership, for example, has As they try to shift from manufacturing into services, distracted the bureaucracy, imposing delays and however, companies also need to find innovative ways to constraints on foreign investment. And there are utter wild run. “China may need technological innovation less than cards, such as an avian flu pandemic or the possibility of innovation in management, institutions and processes,” an armed conflict on the Korean peninsula. said Wang Jianzhou, Chief Executive, China Mobile Communications Corporation, People’s Republic of China; One of the greater risks, though, is raised in the World Co-Chair, China Business Summit 2006. Economic Forum’s scenario report China and the World: Scenarios to 2025: an increasingly protectionist world that Ultimately, however, the most difficult hurdle China may forces China and the rest of Asia to turn within for growth. face in igniting its innovative spark is itself. Beyond deep The breakdown of the Doha Round appears to have pockets, governments have generally proven poor agents increased the plausibility of this scenario, raising the risks Source: World Intellectual Property Organization of creativity, tending instead to stifle it. China may also to China and businesses in the country. “What this implies Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2006 …And Chinese Inventors Active in Overseas need to overcome its traditional fear of failure if it is to is that the global supply chain is going to be severely Patenting successfully reintroduce innovation to its cultural mix. affected and that you’re going to, as a business, have to Foreign multinationals tend to focus on risks to China’s develop and depend upon regional supply chains,” said domestic economy. What is the likelihood of Jean-Pierre Lehmann, Professor of International Political overinvestment and overcapacity caving in? How is Economy, IMD (International Institute for Management deregulation changing the business landscape and will it Development), Switzerland. As bilateral trade agreements increase or reduce corruption? Some even discuss the multiply, the danger is that increasingly complex rules will need to offset their China risk with a presence in Vietnam raise transaction costs and complicate trade. or Malaysia. Perhaps the biggest risk foreign firms are trying to fathom, however, is the risk of not being in China at all. Source: World Intellectual Property Organization 8 9 China Business Summit 2006 China Business Summit 2006
  • 7. These home improvements are vital, as David Dollar, quot;Today we see a lot of risks “It is not easy for companies in the private sector and the from the West, who are Country Director, China and Mongolia, World Bank, Environmental risk to sustainable Chinese growth country in general is borne often seen as ‘wolves’, to Beijing warned: “To keep growing quickly, China needs to by the banking system, get a foothold in the Chinese improve its institutions.” For example, a basic impediment China’s GDP is expected to quadruple by 2020, which takes on most of the market and generate a to implementing much of China’s transformation plan is propelling aggregate energy use towards US levels and corporate risk.quot; profit.” the lack of safety nets for unemployment, healthcare and presenting challenges to overall environmental John P. Drzik Liu Changle retirement. Without them, the Chinese will continue to management. Pressure is rising on policy-makers and President, Mercer Oliver Wyman Chairman of the Board and save at prodigious rates, instead of channelling funds to CEOs alike to improve energy efficiency and to take (MMC), USA CEO, Phoenix Satellite Television more productive purposes. The absence of social security measures to mitigate widespread potential Co., Hong Kong SAR; Co-Chair of the China Business Summit also limits entrepreneurship and the willingness of environmental damage to water supplies and air quality. 2006 investors to take risks. “Savings are high because there is There is an increasing recognition of environmental insecurity,” said Pierre E. Cohade, President, Asia Pacific stress in Chinese cities, the fragility of several of China’s Region, Goodyear Tire Management Company multiple ecosystems and the risks posed by (Shanghai), People’s Republic of China. environmental degradation to China’s long-term sustainable growth path. “The central government The weak rule of law is another risk. Take intellectual attaches great importance to building an China’s vulnerability to imported oil supplies is also property rights. Enforcement of IPR protection, while Yet, the obstacles and risks that could block China’s environmentally friendly society,” said Zhang Xiaoqiang, fostering a well publicized push overseas to secure oil-rich improving, remains patchy due to feeble commitment at economic transformation offer the very commercial Vice-Chairman, National Development and Reform friends. Beijing’s diplomats and executives have become the local level and the lack of a sufficiently independent opportunities that could drive new, sustainable growth. Commission, People’s Republic of China. Zhang told frequent visitors to Central Asia, Africa and South legal system. This is not just a problem for foreign Japan and the US could supply China with the technology participants that China aims to reduce energy America. China has also assumed a more proactive role in investors. In fact, about 90% of IPR infringements involve to enhance energy efficiency. The lack of social safety consumption of per unit GDP by 20% and reduce total settling diplomatic disputes in areas it depends on for oil, domestic firms. “The general issue is the extraordinary nets represents a “humongous opportunity not just for emissions by 10% over the next five years. This goal such as Iran. degree of decentralization in China,” Dollar explained. improving the quality of life in China but for unleashing all will be achieved through the reduction of pollution at these savings,” said Cohade. He predicted that “empty source, implementation of new technologies and While those efforts may help mitigate the risk of an oil nesters”, parents born during the years of the Cultural innovation. Market factors, such as adjustment to the supply shock, for those in China the ability to offset risk Revolution whose single child has already grown up and price of oil, may also help this process. While Zhang would be greatly enhanced if its stock and bond markets left home, would be “the engine of consumption” in said that China would continue to rely on coal as its Figure 2: Bank Loans Dominate Capital were more developed. “Today we see a lot of risks in the coming years. “Understanding the empty nesters is going major source of energy, the installation of clean coal Structure in China private sector and the country in general is borne by the to be critical” for retailers and financial services providers. technology and the increasing use of nuclear power – banking system, which takes on most of the corporate set to rise to 4% of overall energy production by 2020 risk,” said John P. Drzik, President, Mercer Oliver Wyman – will help China to achieve its ambitious goals. Failure (MMC), USA (see Figure 2). Insurers also want the to act now to shore up the environmental foundations freedom to invest in a wider range of assets to enable of China’s growth – locally, nationally and globally – China’s savers to better hedge risks to the value of their risks human and political costs and future economic nest eggs. “Rome was not built in a day,” cautioned Tu growth. Guangshao, Vice-Chairman, China Securities Regulatory Commission, People’s Republic of China. Before China China’s Spending on the Environment can further liberalize its capital markets, he said: “We Rising… need to improve our legal system and also the corporate system as well as our cultural system.” Source: Nicholas Lardy, Institute of International Economics Source: State Environmental Protection Administration Reports on the Economy 2000- 2004, China Statistical Yearbook, press accounts 10 11 China Business Summit 2006 China Business Summit 2006
  • 8. Sustainable Growth “The domestic service sector “I don't see China becoming quot;Local governments want to “Internationalization is not will grow very fast, faster a service centre to the world focus on increasing GDP an end in itself; it is a means than the rest of the anytime soon. To be at the and, in doing so, favour to help you grow and economy, but it will mainly same level of critical mass vested local interests such as develop.” cater to the local market. In as India at a global level – factories that may also be general, we will not see it's probably about 7 to 10 polluters.quot; Yang Yuanqing Chairman of the Board of large-scale service practice years away.” Lenovo Group, People’s to the world.” Pan Yue Republic of China; Co-Chair of Vice-Minister of China's State Sriram Venkataraman the China Business Summit Environmental Protection Senior Vice-President and Head David Li Daokui 2006 Administration of Asia Pacific, Infosys Mansfield Freeman Chair Technologies, Japan Professor of Economics, Tsinghua University, People's Republic of China China’s chief economic challenge for the next decade is The key to that transformation was obvious from the For that reason, the government is trying to overhaul Protection Administration. He called for an honest clear: how to shift from an export-led growth model to Summit theme: Sustainable Growth through Innovation: the economy to make China a greener, more energy- evaluation of the state of China’s environment and one driven by consumption and innovation, while China’s Creative Imperative. Among the buzzwords of efficient nation. China has been moving, for example, urged local governments to adopt sustainable maintaining social stability and avoiding a hard landing. development, “sustainability”, “innovation” and “creativity” to gradually reduce subsidies on fuel in order to practices. “Not all central government policies are fully When an economy as big as China’s – now the fourth are practically regarded as off-the-shelf ingredients for a remove the incentive for waste and make consumers implemented in the localities,” noted Zhang Xiaoqiang, largest in the world – is growing at a 10%-plus clip, that magic potion to combat the pressures of globalization. bear the true cost of oil. The government is investing Vice-Chairman of China’s National Development task is the macroeconomic equivalent of getting a But China’s current Five-Year Plan offers a real recipe for in new technologies for oil and gas exploration and Reform Commission. “We need to improve the quality charging elephant to turn the right corner without action that can hardly be dismissed as glib: stimulate financing the development of renewable energy such of our civil servants and the whole administrative crashing or slipping. But make the turn the giant must. domestic demand, shift investment away from industries as hydropower, biomass and wind power (see Figure mechanism has to deal in a balanced way with short- Heavy fixed asset investment has led to overcapacity in with too much capacity such as automobiles and steel, 2). China is also trying to adopt cleaner ways to burn and long-term issues, all of which have to be many industries, while China’s high savings rate of over shore up the financial system so that it can better absorb domestic coal and plans to build 40 nuclear power coordinated on a national basis.” 40% of GDP is unsustainable, particularly as the the savings of Chinese, and mobilize more capital to plants in the next 15 years. “In China, most of our population ages. Meanwhile, in 2004, China has the productive investments. As for innovation, the plan experts and the public believe nuclear energy is Figure 2: Alternative Energy Expected to largest energy imbalance in Asia (see Figure 1) and commits China to increasing R&D spending from the relatively safe and clean. So the Chinese government Rise with Demand… pollution was estimated to have resulted in economic current 1.2% of GDP to 2.4%, just above the OECD believes we should still actively develop nuclear losses equivalent to 3.05% of GDP. “We cannot continue average. “Only by constructing new ways of development energy,” said Zhang Xiaoqiang, Vice-Chairman, with the traditional development approach and growth can China enhance overall growth,” said Summit Co- National Development and Reform Commission, pattern,” concluded Zeng Peiyan, Vice-Premier of the Chair Chen Yuan, Governor of the China Development People’s Republic of China. People’s Republic of China, in a special address to open Bank. the China Business Summit 2006. “We have to transform At the same time, the government is trying to push our approach.” But there are obstacles and risks. Perhaps the most industry into shape, phasing out inefficient factories talked about risk is that posed by increasingly volatile oil and promoting cleaner, more efficient ones. It is prices. Since becoming a net oil importer in 1993, China imposing tighter emission standards on vehicles, Figure 1: China Has the Largest Energy has emerged as the world’s second largest energy clamping down on overloaded, gas-guzzling trucks, Imbalance in Asia consumer, increasingly dependent on imported oil. and even changing the way it evaluates local officials to rate them not just on economic growth but also on China’s policy-makers are cognizant that China’s energy efficiency. dependency on imported oil – and its wasteful use of it – is not only a drain on development, but that its growing Efforts to boost China’s energy efficiency, its economic demand for the increasingly scarce resource also raises expansion and environmental protection have been the long-term probability of China getting into a conflict undermined by China’s decentralized political system. over oil, whether commercial or military. “Local governments want to focus on increasing GDP and, in doing so, favour vested local interests such as Source: US Energy Information Administration, China Daily, International Energy Outlook factories that may also be polluters,” said Pan Yue, 2006 Vice-Minister of China’s State Environmental Source: IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries and Non-OECD Countries 2003; World Bank World Development Report 2005; CIA World Factbook 12 13 China Business Summit 2006 China Business Summit 2006
  • 9. Globalization The onus for action must also fall on enterprises. “Many The maturation of China’s economy will surely speed up companies in China have focused on the short term such its transformation – naturally. The services sector already quot;I can assure you that “China is engaged and Japan's next administration building partnerships to as on increasing revenues from sales and marketing,” said contributes almost 40% of GDP, Hellmut Schutte, Dean, will share the basic send a message to the Zhang Weiying, Vice-Dean, Guanghua School of Asia Campus, INSEAD, Singapore, remarked (see Figures recognition that the rise of world that it will play by the Management, Peking University. Instead of focusing on 3 and 4). “As manufacturing productivity growth comes in, China is an opportunity for rules of the game. Let the racking up double-digit sales, enterprises have to put more people will be laid off with many of them starting all of us rather than a threat rules of the game be fair.” against us.quot; more effort and investment into R&D and generating their own little shop along the street,” he explained. “It’s Kapil Sibal sustainable profits, Zhang advised. Said Chen Tonghai, pretty obvious that as China’s economy grows, Minister of Science and Yasuhisa Shiozaki Chairman of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation consumption patterns will change, with very high growth Technology and Earth Sciences Senior Vice-Minister for Foreign (Sinopec), which leads Chinese enterprises in annual in the leisure industries, healthcare and education.” The of India Affairs of Japan patent applications: “In our industry, we not only have to elephant is making the turn, but will it keep its balance? look for new types of energy but to develop environmentally friendly products. We have to constantly conduct systematic innovation or else we will be eliminated by the competition.” In 30 years, China has transformed itself from a The recent agreement to increase China’s voting Figure 3: Chinese Economy Gradually Figure 4: …But Services Sector Still Has command economy inhospitable to overseas investors power in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), albeit Shifting towards Services… Room to Grow to an emerging free enterprise market that attracts the by only a small percentage, is an acknowledgement of biggest share of global foreign direct investment. its rising profile – and mounting responsibilities. China is a key driver of globalization and one of its Geopolitically, China’s participation in the six-party major beneficiaries. The world’s third biggest trader talks on North Korea’s nuclear programme has been and the fourth largest economy, China combines pivotal. And as a permanent member of the UN geographic and demographic heft with purchasing Security Council, Beijing is playing a key behind-the- power and manufacturing prowess. scenes part in the selection of the next UN Secretary- General, who is expected to be an Asian. “Anything Even so, China is still a developing country. China’s that happens in China will have a global impact so we per capita GDP is above that of the Philippines but have to be globally responsible,” said Wang Jianmao, below that of Thailand. In the World Economic Professor of Economics and Associate Dean, China Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007, Europe International Business School (CEIBS). China’s competitiveness ranking dropped from 48th to 54th. According to the World Bank, over the past two Chinese diplomacy, however, has largely been driven decades, China accounted for over 75% of the by pragmatic economic motives, particularly the need poverty reduction achieved in developing economies. to meet its burgeoning energy, raw materials and Yet, today, more than 135 million people, mainly in components demands. China has been an China’s western and interior regions, scrape by on enthusiastic driver of integration with South-East Asia less than a dollar a day, without the benefits of clean and has also forged strong commercial links with Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2005 Source: CIA World Factbook; 2005 estimates when available water, adequate healthcare and education. resource-rich countries in Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, as well as Australia. That said, China has become a leading player in the Energy imports rose by 55% in the first four months of international community, both through the roles it has this year to US$ 21.3 billion. sought such as its membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and those that have been thrust upon it. Beijing has emerged as a role model for developing economies, its non-judgmental foreign policy serving as a counterweight to western developed countries, particularly the United States. 14 15 China Business Summit 2006 China Business Summit 2006