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1. Globalization of Science and Technology: The “Asian Drama” Keynote address byAqueil Ahmad, Ph.D.School of Management, Walden University, Minneapolis, MN, USA International Conference on Asian rise in ICT R&D organized by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Joint Research Centre of the European Commission February 16 and 17, 2011Brussels, Belgium

2. The Context The totality of globalization - six interconnected dimensions: Demographic globalization Political globalization Environmental globalization Globalization of soft culture Economic globalization Globalization of science and technology This presentation focuses on globalization of science and technology in the Asian context to show the transition from unilateral to multilateral knowledge generation and transfer.

3. Changing Patterns of Knowledge Generation and Transfer change

4. From Borrowing and Imitation to Adaptation and Invention Invention / Innovation

5. From borrowing and imitating to innovating: An example

6. Comparative Industrial R&D/ICT Input Indicators The United States and the EU countries still have the largest share of global ICT/R&D capacity. But the share is declining. Others like South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and of late, India and China are catching up fast. Japan’s R&D expenditure is 3+% of GDP vs. US’s 2+%. South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore spend as much of their GDP percentage on R&D as the US and more than most EU nations. Japan’s industry R&D intensity is the second after Sweden in the OECD region

7. Input Indicators - continued Chinese R&D expenditure = 1.5 % of GDP, still more than most EU countries; researchers per million of population = 3000 (total = 1.4 million); ICT expenditure = 6% of GD (next to India’s 4%) China’s R&D expenditure for the first time exceeds Japan’s: $154 billion vs. $144 billion China is the world’s second highest R&D investor, behind the U. S. This magnitude of input may not correspond well with the output in terms of patents, publications, and inventions.

8. R&D annual expenditure growth: 1996-2007 N. America = 5%-6% (declined from 40% of global expenditure to 36%) EU – declined from 31% of global expenditure to 28% Asia-8 = 10+% (Japan, India, S. Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, China)- Increased from 25% to 30% of the global total India = 8% growth China = 22% growth Together, China and India account for roughly half of global R&D growth.

9. Input Indicators - continued R&D/GDP ratios over the past 10 years: Increased substantially in Japan, S. Korea & China were the highest in Japan & S. Korea at 3.4%-3.5% respectively; only 1.5% in China American MNC affiliates’ share of global R&D spending in China, Singapore, and S. Korea rose from 5% in 1994 to 13% in 2006 It declined in Europe, Canada, and Japan from 90% in 1994 to 80% in 2006 US-MNC affiliates spent $840 million and $310 million respectively in In China and India in 2006 compared to less than $10 million in each country in 1994

10. Input Indicators – continued R&D collaboration in the ASEAN region was robust – between China and Japan; and between S. Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan But despite increasing industrial collaboration, R&D collaboration between India and China remains insignificant India has more regional collaborative R&D with Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan than with China. Intra-Asian scientific collaboration is accompanied by enhanced regional technology-intensive activities.

11. Science and Engineering Education Inputs/Outputs Chinese earned 800,5000 or 21% of 4+ million first (bachelor’s) S&E degrees in 2006 – next to19% in EU and 11% in the U.S. In Asia about 20% of all bachelor’s degrees are in engineering. In China, almost one-third are. The United States awarded the largest number of S&E doctoral degrees of any country (30,000),followed by China (23,000) and Russia (20,000) About half of all foreign born scientists and engineers in the U.S. are from Asia: India – 16%; China – 11%; Philippines, S. Korea, and Taiwan – 45%-6%.

12. S&T/R&D Output Indicators Global value added of high tech manufacturing: The US = 36% in 1988; 30% in 2007. EU remained stable, while Japan’s plunged to 10% during this period China’s moved up from less then 5% in 1995 to 13% 2008 High tech exports remained stable in Asia at 27% of the global exports, but China’s share declined from 21% to less than 15% But China’s share of global HT/ICT goods exports rose from 6% in 1995 to 20% in 2008. Asia-9 also made substantial gains in ICT good exports, from $50 billion to $220 billion during the past one and half decades, China being the major exporter in the group.

13. Output indicators -continued Asia-9 import 70% of their ICT goods from China China is today the world’s major assembler of ICT goods today Its HT exports increased from 6% of the world total in 1995 20% in 2008 – the largest single country global exporter; while the U.S. and Japanese shares declined considerably. The EU ‘s share remained table at about 17% Intra-Asia technology transfer and trade is increasing substantially

14. Science and engineering publications- A comparative view EU: 1995 = 200,000; 2007 = 250,000 US: 1995 = 200,000; 2007 = 202,000 PRC:1995 = 5,00; 2007 = 51,000 India:1995 = 5,00; 2007 = 10,000 Asia: 1995 = 80,00; 2007 = 165,000 Intra-regional citations in Asia increased from 37% in 1992 to 41% in 2007 Japan’s share dropped from 31% to 17%; China’s Increased from 2% to 12%. Output indicators -continued

15. Nine Asian Nations Among the Top 20 Countries with Highest Number of Internet Users internet users % of population % of world users broadband users China 162,000,000 12.7% 13.8 % 35,300,000 Japan 86,300,000 67.1 % 7.4 % 25,755,080 India 42,000,000 3.7 % 3.6 % 2,100,000 Korea 34,120,000 66.5 % 2.9 % 14,042,728 Russia 28,000,000 19.5 % 2.4 % 1,200,000 Indonesia 20,000,000 8.9 % 1.7 % n/a Vietnam 16,511,849 19.4 % 1.4 % n/a Taiwan 14,500,000 63.0 % 1.2 % n/a Philippines 14,000,000 16.0 % 1.2 % n/a

16. Lenovo is the fourth largest vendor of personal computers in the world and the largest seller of PCs in China, with a 28.6% market share. Huawei Technologies, a privately owned ICT company spends 10% of annual revenues on its worldwide R&D facilities. Its manufacturing, and marketing operations are located in cities like Stockholm, Dallas, Silicon Valley, Bangalore, Moscow, Jakarta, and Wijchen. Huawei and other Chinese companies are moving towards software development to compete with the Asian software giant, India. Shanghai Electric Company recently signed a $10 billion deal to sell power generating equipment to the Indian conglomerate Reliance.

17. From Technology to Industrial Development Asian giants’ ICT/R&D policy = “technology and industry first, science later” approach. Encouraged by MITI/METI, Japan was the leading foreign nation in 2008 to have issued 80-85 thousands patents in the United States. Following the Japanese example, the Chinese Academy of Sciences has created over 430 S&T/ICT-based enterprises in 11 industrial sectors- 8 of them are listed on world stock exchanges. Lenovo, the fourth largest computer company in the world is the most notable example.

18. Dramatic Rise of Asia: Opportunities or Threats From Japan, Taiwan, etc. to India, and China. Japan – first Asian nation to join the ranks of G8 China – from a basket case of communism to the second largest economy in less then three decades. India – from the “Hindu” annual growth rate of 3% to an average growth rate 8-9% in less than a decade. 21st century is likely to be the “Asian Century.” What lessons, opportunities or threats these developments suggest? This is the question.

19. Historical Science and Tech Diffusions from Asia- History Repeats Domestication of Chickens Thailand~6,000 BC Pottery China ~7,900 BC Ink China ~2,500 BC Rice Farming China ~5,000 BC Silk Production China ~4,000 BC Ice Cream Persia~400 BC

20. Historical Science and Tech Diffusions from Asia- History Repeats Wheelbarrow China ~118 AD Abacus China ~190 AD Modern Number System India ~500 AD Saddle w Stirrups Central Asia ~200 AD Magnetic Needle Compass China~ 8th Century Distilled Perfume Arabia ~7th Century

21. Historical Science and Tech Diffusions from Asia- History Repeats Vertical Sail Windmill Persia ~ 9th Century Gunpowder China ~9th Century Wide Use of Paper Currency China~ 1165 Canal Locks China ~ 983 AD Medical Syringe Iraq ~ 1,000 AD Landmines China~ 1287