For an Executive Summary of this report please contact ediz.ibrahim@visiongain.com (+44 (0)20 7549 9976) or refer to our website http://www.visiongain.com/Report/1163/Macular-Degeneration-%28AMD%29-and-Other-Retinal-Diseases-World-Drug-Market-2014-2024

1. Macular Degeneration (AMD)
and Other Retinal Diseases:
World Drug Market 2014-2024
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2. Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Overview of Findings
1.2 Chapters in the Report
1.3 Research and Analysis Methods
2. Overview of the AMD and Other Retinal Diseases Market, 2014-2024
2.1 Market to Make Rapid Strides to 2024
2.2 Lucentis Still Holds Over 70% of the Total Market
2.2.1 Novartis the Leading Presence in the Market
2.3 Which are the Most Significant Disease Areas for the Market?
2.3.1 Nearly 200 Million People with AMD?
2.3.2 Over 100 Million with DR
2.3.3 First RVO Estimates Suggest Patient Population of 16 Million
2.3.4 Wet AMD Still the Main Source of Revenues in the Market
2.4 Wet AMD: Angiogenic Processes Offer Well-Defined Drug Targets
2.5 Dry AMD: Unmet Need to Arrest or Reverse Damage to RPE
2.6 DR: Coming Into Clinical Focus, with DME the Main Target
2.7 Lucentis and Eylea Label Extensions Highlight Possibilities in Other Disease Areas
2.8 Projections for All Segments, 2014-2024
3. Approved Products in the AMD and Other Retinal Diseases Market,
2014-2024
3.1 Will the Current Products Dominate the Market Through 2024?
3.2 Lucentis: The Market Leader, But For How Long?
3.2.1 Shadow of Avastin Still Hangs Over Lucentis
3.2.2 CATT Study Results: Clinical Differences Still Have Yet to Emerge
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3. Contents
3.2.3 Eylea: The Bigger Threat to Lucentis?
3.2.4 Extending the Label, Widening the Battleground: Lucentis Moves Into DME and Beyond
3.2.5 Improving Cost and Compliance for Lucentis
3.2.6 Will Loss of Physician Goodwill Harm Lucentis’ Growth?
3.2.7 Lucentis Revenue Forecast 2014-2024
3.3 Eylea: Pretender to the Throne?
3.3.1 VIEW 1 and VIEW 2: Is Eylea Superior or Just Non-Inferior to Lucentis?
3.3.2 First Wave of Eylea’s Expansion Finally Beginning to Break?
3.3.3 Into DME and Other New Indications
3.3.4 Zaltrap Targeting Solid Tumour Markets
3.3.5 How Far Can Eylea’s Momentum Carry It?
3.3.6 Eylea Revenue Forecast 2014-2024
3.4 Avastin: No Formal wAMD Approval But Still the Most-Used Product
3.4.1 Judicial Review Averted in the UK by Price Adjustment
3.4.2 Multiple Attempts to Block Off-Label Avastin Since 2007
3.4.3 Roche and Novartis Challenge CATT’s Headline Conclusions
3.4.4 Will Eylea/Zaltrap Affect Avastin’s Place in the Market?
3.4.5 Will Anything Dislodge Avastin from its Central Position?
3.4.6 Market Forecast for Avastin, 2014-2024
4. Wet AMD Segment, 2014-2024
4.1 Eylea The Segment’s Biggest Short-Term Driver
4.2 R&D Pipeline for wAMD: The Leading Candidates
4.3 Fovista (Ophthotech Corporation): The Next Big Thing?
4.3.1 Three Phase 3 Trials to Confirm Fovista’s Outstanding Phase 2 Results
4.3.2 Ophthotech Goes Public to Fund Phase 3 Effort
4.3.3 Improving Angiogenesis Inhibition by Blocking Pericyte Recruitment
4.3.4 The Move Toward Combination Therapies
4.4 Squalamine (OHR Pharmaceutical): Combination Targeting in a Single Eyedrop
4.4.1 Preclinical DARPin Hits VEGF and PDGF
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4. Contents
4.4.2 NT-506 (Neurotech Pharmaceutical): Sustained-Release VEGF/PDGF Options
4.4.3 Other Growth Factor Targets in the Pipeline
4.4.4 iSONEP (Lpath): Pfizer Interested in Anti-S1P MAb
4.5 Conbercept (Chengdu Kanghong Biotech): The Other Phase 3 Candidate in wAMD
4.5.1 A Chinese Competitor: Where Will Conbercept Fit In?
4.5.2 Binding Affinity Comparable to Eylea
4.6 Do We Need New Anti-VEGFR Agents or Delivery Systems?
4.6.1 AGN-150998 DARPin (Allergan): Novel Protein With Extended Half-Life
4.6.2 ESBA 1008 (Alcon): Single-Chain mAb Fragment
4.6.3 PDS 1.0 (ForSight Vision4): A New Option for Lucentis Delivery
4.6.4 NT-503 (Neurotech): New Delivery Platform for Anti-VEGF Agent
4.6.5 Pan-90806 (PanOptica): Anti-VEGF Eyedrop in Preclinical Development
4.6.6 Iontophoretic Delivery: Eyegate Pharmaceuticals Leading the Way
4.7 Novel Delivery Systems to Rejuvenate Anti-Inflammatory Approaches
4.7.1 IBI-20089 (Icon Bioscience): Steroid Gel for Slow Release
4.7.2 OT-551 (Colby Pharmaceutical): An Alternative Anti-Inflammatory Approach?
4.8 Other Targets Under Investigation in wAMD Drug Development
4.8.1 Are Kinase Inhibitors Still a Going Concern in wAMD?
4.8.2 Pazopanib and TG100801: Two Eyedrop Kinase Inhibitors Drop Out of the Running
4.8.3 First Ophthalmic Complement Factor Inhibitor, AL-78898A, Misses Primary Endpoint
4.8.4 Factor C5: A More Promising Target Addressed by LFG316 (Novartis)
4.8.5 Integrins: Another Blockable Component of the Neovascularisation Cascade?
4.8.6 ALG-1001 (Allegro Ophthalmics): Novel Anti-Integrin Oligopeptide
4.8.7 Ocriplasmin (Thrombogenics): Can Pharmacologic Vitreolysis Help wAMD Patients?
4.8.8 Novel Anti-Angiogenic Treatments in Development
4.8.9 Zybrestat (Oxigene): New Mechanism of Action Offers Way to Disrupt Neovascularisation
4.8.10 Synthetic Biologies: Oligonucleotides and SiRNAs for wAMD
4.9 Regenerative Medicine Approaches
4.9.1 Allogeneic Stem Cells (Mesoblast): Potential Synergistic Treatment for Use Alongside
Lucentis
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5. Contents
4.9.2 AVA-101(Avalanche Biotechnologies): Ocular BioFactory for wAMD
4.9.3 RetinoStat (Oxford BioMedica): LentiVector Technology to Deliver Anti-Angiogenic Genes
4.4.5 Market Forecast for the OTC Segment, 2014-2024
5. Dry AMD Segment, 2014-2024
5.1 Dry AMD Segment to Emerge in the Forecast Period
5.2 Who Will Achieve the Big Breakthrough in Dry AMD?
5.3 MC-1101 (MacuCLEAR): Leading the Pack?
5.3.1 Increasing Choroidal Blood Flow with Repurposed Product
5.3.2 Novel Endpoints in Phase 3 Study
5.3.3 Can MacuCLEAR Make It?
5.4 ACU-4429 (Acucela): Visual Cycle Modulator in Phase 3
5.4.1 Data Expected in July 2016
5.4.2 Other Visual Cycle Modulators
5.5 Lampalizumab (Roche): The Big News of ARVO 2013
5.5.1 MAHALO Study Indicates GA Progression Slowed by Lampa
5.5.2 High Hopes for Complement Inhibition in Dry AMD
5.5.3 AL-78898A (Alcon): Still Under Investigation in Dry AMD
5.5.4 Soliris (Alexion): Out of the Running?
5.6 Corticosteroids: Targeting Inflammation’s Role in Dry AMD Pathogenesis
5.6.1 Medidur Fluocinolone Acetonide (Alimera Sciences): Insert in Phase 2
5.6.2 AGN208397 (Allergan): New Potent Steroid Expected to Be Trialled in Dry AMD
5.7 Neuroprotection: One of Modern Medicine’s Holy Grails
5.7.1 Tandospirone (Alcon): No News On Serotonin 1A Agonist
5.7.2 NT501 (Neurotech): Some Promising Data in Dry AMD Studies
5.7.3 Brimonidine Tartrate (Allergan): Possible Efficacy with Longer Duration of Action
5.7.4 RN6G (Pfizer): Amyloid Beta-Binding MAb Still in Studies
5.7.5 VAR10200 (Varinel): A Preclinical Candidate to Watch
5.8 Regenerative Medicine: Dry AMD One of the Biggest Disease Targets
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6. Contents
5.8.1 MA09-hRPE Cellular Therapy (Advanced Cell Technology): Signs of Efficacy in Landmark
ESC Human Trial
5.8.2 HuCNS-SC (StemCells): Leading Company in Neural Stem Cell Space
5.8.3 Stemedyne-RPE (Stemedica Cell Technologies): Low-Oxygen Cells for Dry AMD Repair
5.8.4 Biotime: Stem Cell leader with Dry AMD Interests
5.8.5 First iPSC Trial in Japan in Dry AMD Patients
5.8.6 Gene Therapies Less Prominent Than Stem Cells in Dry AMD
5.9 Other Treatments for Dry AMD
6. Diabetic Retinopathy Segment, 2014-2024
6.1 Segment to Grow in Importance as Diabetes Epidemic Continues
6.2 DR Options Grow with DME Addressed by New Agents
6.3 Lucentis: The Game Changer for DR?
6.3.1 New Anti-VEGF Additions
6.4 A New Hope? Optina (Ampio Pharmaceuticals)
6.4.1 Other Steroids in Development for DR
6.4.2 Iluvien (Alimera/pSivida): New Option in European Markets
6.4.3 Betamethasone Microsphere (Santen): Late-Stage Steroid Candidate
6.4.4 Ozurdex (Allergan): Under Investigation in Several Indications
6.4.5 SK-0503 (Sanwa Kagaku Kenkyusho): Potential DME and BRVO Treatment
6.4.6 Cortiject (Novagali Pharma): Prodrug Candidate
6.5 Other Products in Development for DR
6.5.1 Angiotensin Receptor Blockers/Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors: Some Off-Label
Validation
6.5.2 Vitreosolve (Innovations in Sight): Will a Phase 3 Trial Be Initiated?
6.5.3 Choline Fenofibrate (Abbott): No New Development for Promising Drug
6.5.4 iCo-007 Intravitreal Injection (iCo Therapeutics): Phase 2 Enrolment Completed June 2013
6.5.5 Darapladib (GlaxoSmithKline): Possible New Use for Atherosclerosis Drug
6.5.6 Bromfenac Ophthalmic Solution (ISTA Pharmaceuticals): New NSAID Option?
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7. Contents
6.5.7 Ocriplasmin: Possibilities in DME?
7. Regional Market Breakdown, 2014-2024
7.1 Which Markets Hold the Most Revenue Growth Potential?
7.2 The US: Leading Market for Retinal Diseases
7.3 Japan: Strong Market Potential
7.4 EU5: Ageing Populations to Drive Market Growth
7.5 BRIC Nations: The Biggest Growth Driver for the Market
8. Qualitative Analysis, 2014-2024
8.1 Strengths: The Most Dynamic Area of the Ophthalmics Market
8.2 Weaknesses: Heavily Dependent on Anti-VEGF Approach
8.3 Opportunities: New Markets and R&D Synergies
8.4 Threats: Prevention and Management Better Than Drug Treatment for Dry AMD and DR?
8.5 Social: Low Diagnosis, Low Compliance
8.6 Technological: Innovation for the Eye
8.7 Economic: Off-Label Treatment and Reimbursement Issues
8.8 Political: The Demography and Diabetes Challenges
9. Research Interviews from Our Survey
9.1 Interview with Dr Michael Stewart, Mayo Clinic
9.1.1 The Impact of Eylea, 2011-2012
9.1.2 The Comparative Dosing Schedules of Eylea and Lucentis
9.1.3 Patient Transitioning to Eylea: Salvage Switching
9.1.4 Avastin After the CATT Study
9.1.5 Prospects for Eylea in Other Indications and Combinations
9.1.6 Future Possibilities in Wet AMD Treatment
9.2 Interview with Philip G. Ralston, Jr., MacuCLEAR
9.2.1 MC-1101: Identifying and Treating Chiou Syndrome
9.2.2 Preventing Dry AMD Progression
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8. Contents
9.2.3 Treating the Root Cause of Dry AMD
9.2.4 Phase 3: Endpoints and Prospects for MC-1101
10. Report Conclusions
10.1 The Age of Lucentis: Nearing Its Conclusion?
10.2 Lucentis vs. Eylea vs. Avastin: The Three-Way Anti-VEGF Market
10.3 Indications Outside Wet AMD to Gain in Importance
10.4 Dry AMD Market Has Huge Potential
10.5 Fovista Most Prominent Among the Pipeline Candidates
10.6 Retinal Diseases to Continue to Be the Leading Area of Ophthalmics
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9. Contents
List of Tables
Table 1.1 Currency Exchange Rates
Table 2.1 AMD and Other Retinal Diseases Pharmaceutical Market: Revenues ($m), AGR (%),
CAGR (%), 2012-2017
Table 2.2 AMD and Other Retinal Diseases Pharmaceutical Market: Revenues ($m), AGR (%),
CAGR (%), 2018-2024
Table 2.3 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2012
Table 2.4 Market Breakdown by Disease Segment: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2012
Table 2.5 Types of CNV in Wet AMD, Description: Approximate Proportion of Cases (%), 2012
Table 2.6 Retinal Diseases Market Breakdown by Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%),
Market Share (%), 2012-2017
Table 2.7 Market Breakdown by Disease Segment: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2017
Table 2.8 Retinal Diseases Market Breakdown by Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%),
Market Share (%), 2018-2024
Table 2.9 Market Breakdown by Disease Segment: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2024
Table 3.1 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share
(%), 2012-2017
Table 3.2 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2017
Table 3.3 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share
(%), 2018-2024
Table 3.4 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2024
Table 3.5 Lucentis, Eylea and Avastin: Comparison of Characteristics
Table 3.6 Lucentis: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-2017
Table 3.7 Lucentis: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-2024
Table 3.8 Eylea: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-2017
Table 3.9 Eylea: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-2024
Table 3.10 Avastin: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-2017
Table 3.11 Avastin: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-2024
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10. Contents
Table 4.1 Wet AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 20122017
Table 4.2 Wet AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 20182024
Table 4.3 Selected R&D Pipeline for wAMD, 2013
Table 5.1 Dry AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 20122017
Table 5.2 Dry AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 20182024
Table 5.3 Selected R&D Pipeline for Dry AMD, 2013
Table 6.1 DR Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-2017
Table 6.2 DR Segment: Revenues: ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-2024
Table 6.3 Selected R&D Pipeline for DR, 2013
Table 7.1 Regional Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 20122017
Table 7.2 Regional Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 20182024
Table 7.3 EU5 Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-2017
Table 7.4 EU5 Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-2024
Table 7.5 BRIC Nations Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%),
2012-2017
Table 7.6 BRIC Nations Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%),
2018-2024
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11. Contents
List of Figures
Figure 2.1 AMD and Other Retinal Diseases Pharmaceutical Market: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 2.2 Market Breakdown by Product Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2012
Figure 2.3 Market Breakdown by Company: Market Share (%), 2012
Figure 2.4 Leading Causes of Blindness Worldwide, Proportion of Total (%), 2010
Figure 2.5 Leading Causes of Visual Impairment (Inclusive of Blindness) Worldwide, Proportion
of Total (%), 2010
Figure 2.6 Global Over-60s Population (m), as Proportion of Total (%), 2012-2024
Figure 2.7 Market Breakdown by Disease Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012
Figure 2.8 Wet AMD Disease Segment: Market Share (%), 2012
Figure 2.9 Dry AMD Disease Segment: Market Share (%), 2012
Figure 2.10 DR Disease Segment: Market Share (%), 2012
Figure 2.11 Other Retinal Diseases Segment: Market Share (%), 2012
Figure 2.12 Market Breakdown by Disease Segment: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2017
Figure 2.13 Market Breakdown by Disease Segment: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2024
Figure 2.14 Retinal Diseases Market Breakdown by Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 2.15 Retinal Diseases Market Breakdown by Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012, 2018 and
2024
Figure 3.1 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2017
Figure 3.2 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2024
Figure 3.3 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 3.4 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), 2012, 2018 and 2024
Figure 3.5 Drivers and Restraints for Lucentis, 2013
Figure 3.6 Lucentis: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 3.7 Drivers and Restraints for Eylea, 2013
Figure 3.8 Eylea: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 3.9 Drivers and Restraints for Avastin, 2013
Figure 3.10 Avastin: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 4.1 Wet AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
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12. Contents
Figure 5.1 Dry AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 6.1 DR Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 7.1 Regional Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 7.2 Regional Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012, 2018 and 2024
Figure 7.3 US Market: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 7.4 Japan: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 7.5 EU5: Grouped Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 7.6 EU5 Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 7.7 EU5 Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012, 2018 and 2024
Figure 7.8 BRIC Nations: Grouped Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 7.9 BRIC Nations Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024
Figure 7.10 BRIC Nations Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012, 2018 and 2024
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13. Contents
Organisations Mentioned in Report
Abbott Laboratories
Abbott Laboratories
Acucela
Adnexus
Advanced Cell Technologies
Alcon
Alexion
Alimera Sciences
Alkeus Pharmaceuticals
Allegro Ophthalmics
Allergan
American Academy of Ophthalmology
American Society of Retina Specialists
Amgen
Ampio Pharmaceuticals
Applied Genetic Technologies
Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology (ARVO)
AstraZeneca
Athenagen
Atlantis Pharma
ATON Pharma
Avalanche Biotechnologies
Bausch & Lomb
Bayer
Bayer Yakuhin (Bayer subsidiary)
Biogen Idec
Biotime
Biovail Corporation
Bristol-Myers Squibb
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14. Contents
Casey Eye Institute at Oregon Health and Science University
Cell Cure Neurosciences
Chengdu Kanghong Biotech
Colby Pharmaceutical
CoMentis
Eli Lilly
Emory University
ES Cell International
ESBATech
European Court of Justice
European Medicines Agency (EMEA/EMA)
EyeGate Pharmaceuticals
Eyetech
Food and Drug Administration (US FDA)
Formatech
ForSight Labs
ForSight VISION4
Fovea
Genaera
Gene Signal
Genentech
General Medical Council (GMC, UK)
GenVec
Genzyme
Geron
Gerot Lannach
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Human Genome Sciences
iCo Therapeutics
Icon Bioscience
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15. Contents
Innovations in Sight
Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen (IQWiG, Germany)
International Diabetes Foundation
Institute of Ocular Pharmacology
ISTA Pharmaceuticals
Jerini
Kaplan Medical Center
Lpath
Ludwig-Maximilians - University of Munich
MacuCLEAR
MacuSight
Mayo Clinic
MedImmune
Merck & Co.
Mesoblast
Molecular Partners
MorphoSys
Mystic Pharmaceuticals
National Eye Institute (NEI, US)
National Health Service (NHS, UK)
National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE, UK)
Natur Produk
Neuron Systems
Neurotech
Novagali Pharma
Novartis
Novo Nordisk
Numoda Capital Innovations
Oakwood Laboratories
OcuSciences
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16. Contents
Ohr Pharmaceutical
Oklahoma Medical Research Foundation
Ophthotech Corporation
Ora Bio
OraPharma
Österreichische Agentur für Gesundheit und Ernährungssicherheit (AGES, Austria)
Othera Pharmaceuticals
Otsuka Pharmaceutical
Oxford BioMedica
Oxigene
Paloma Pharmaceuticals
Palomid Pharmaceuticals
PanOptica
PDL BioPharma
Pedinol Pharmacal
Pele Nova Biotecnologica
Pfizer
Pieris
Potentia Pharmaceuticals
Probiotica Laboratorios
pSivida
Purdue University
QLT
Quark
Regeneron
Retina Macula Institute
RetroSense Therapeutics
ReVision Therapeutics
Roche
Sanofi
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17. Contents
Santen Pharmaceuticals
Sanwa Kagaku Kenkyusho
SARcode Bioscience
Senju Pharmaceutical
Shire
Singapore Eye Research Institute
Singapore National Eye Centre
Sirion Therapeutics
StemCells
Stemedica Cell Technologies
Swissmedic
Symphony ViDA
Takeda
TargeGen
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries
ThromboGenics
UCB
University of Kentucky College of Medicine
University of Kyoto
Valeant Pharma
Varinel
Vitreoretinal Technologies
World Health Organization (WHO)
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18. Macular Degeneration (AMD) and Other Retinal
Diseases: World Drug Market 2014-2024
to prescribe it at the original asking price. In June 2013, the UK’s NICE declined to recommend
Zaltrap, also reportedly citing its high cost.
3.3.5 How Far Can Eylea’s Momentum Carry It?
See Figure 3.7 for a summary of drivers and restraints for Eylea. The drug has exceeded
expectations to date, capturing a large share of the wAMD patient population, rather than merely
becoming a salvage/second-line option (as may have been expected for a drug with similar
mechanism of action and similar efficacy to the existing standard of care). Eylea’s slightly lower
cost and superior label dosing schedule, combined with the apparent ill-will generated by some
attempts to protect Lucentis. The relative goodwill of physicians towards the Regeneron product
may seem subjective, but visiongain has been informed off the record that this was a strong initial
driver for Eylea’s uptake. Eylea’s longer-term growth prospects face the ongoing restraint of
Lucentis getting to other retinal disease indications first; and the constant presence of Avastin as a
lower-cost off-label option. Eylea’s strong performance against Lucentis in wAMD suggests it has
potential to become standard of care in the other retinal disease indications too.
Figure 3.7 Drivers and Restraints for Eylea, 2013
Restraints
As with Lucentis, Avastin apparently represents
a lower-cost alternative to Eylea
Relative to Lucentis, Eylea is reportedly slightly
cheaper, shows slightly superior VEGF-binding,
and has a preferable dosing schedule
Has no clear-cut clinical superiority to support its
use instead of Lucentis or Avastin where these
options are more convenient
Rapid expansion shows physicians are willing to
switch patients to Eylea, which may also profit
from any ill-will to Lucentis
Will cede first-to-market advantage to Lucentis in
retinal disease indications
Expansion opportunities in new markets and
indications
Drivers
Source: visiongain 2013
3.3.6 Eylea Revenue Forecast 2014-2024
Visiongain believes that given the scale of Eylea’s incursion into the wAMD space there is at
present no obvious reason that it should not capture the broader retinal disease market from
Lucentis. If Eylea achieves the same patient share in RVO, DME and CNV secondary to
pathological myopia, it will be a multiple blockbuster product by the end of the forecast period.
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19. Macular Degeneration (AMD) and Other Retinal
Diseases: World Drug Market 2014-2024
Visiongain anticipates 2013 revenues of $1292m for Eylea, rising to $2079m in 2014 with DME
added to the product’s label. Between 2012 and 2017 Eylea will achieve a CAGR of 28%,
visiongain believes, with revenues rising to $2891m by the end of that year (Table 3.8). By this
point, Eylea will have captured around 29% of the overall retinal diseases market, which visiongain
believes is likely to be its high-water-mark as new products and combinations capture market
share.
Table 3.8 Eylea: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-2017
2012
Revenues ($m)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
838
1292
2079
2356
2612
2891
54
61
13
11
11
AGR (%)
28
CAGR (%, 2012-2017)
Market share (%)
16
22
29
29
29
29
Source: visiongain 2013
Visiongain predicts that by 2018 Eylea will have exhausted the main avenues for easily expanding
its patient base, and will record more gradual growth in the second half of the forecast period in
competition with Lucentis and newer approvals. Between 2018 and 2024, visiongain anticipates a
CAGR of 6% (15% for the 12-year forecast period overall), with Eylea achieving 2024 revenues of
$4475m, and overtaking Lucentis in 2022. By the close of the forecast period, Eylea will hold 27%
of the overall market (with Lucentis on 20%). See Table 3.9 and Figure 3.8.
Table 3.9 Eylea: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-2024
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Revenues ($m )
3156
3417
3617
3852
4077
4261
4475
AGR (%)
9
8
6
6
6
5
5
CAGR (%, 2018-2024)
6
CAGR (%, 2012-2024)
15
Market share (%)
29
28
28
28
28
27
27
Source: visiongain 2013
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