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Interim report Q4 2008
12 February 2009
Jan Lidén
President and CEO
2© Swedbank
Content
• Fourth quarter 2008
– Group
– Business areas
• Comments on issues in focus
– Credit quality
– Liquidity and funding
– Capitalization
– Dividend
• Summary and conclusions
Profit trend
4© Swedbank
Fourth quarter 2008 – Group
• Profit for the period increased by
34% to SEK 3 318m (2 468 Q3),
excl. impairment of goodwill
• Net interest income increased by
+6% to SEK 5 742m (5 424)
• Net commission income decreased
by 11% due to downturn in the stock
market
• Increased provisions for loan losses,
SEK 1 633m (812), of which Baltic
Banking amounted to SEK 977m
• Impairment of goodwill in Ukraine
amounted to SEK 1 403m
• The proposed dividend amounts to
SEK 2.40 per preference share and
SEK 4.50 per ordinary share.
Profit for the period, SEKm
* Excl. impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m
5© Swedbank
** Including total subscribed capital
Fourth quarter 2008 – Group, cont.
• Successful share issue of SEK
12.4bn increases the tier 1
capital ratio to 10.7%
• Stronger liquidity due to larger
funding volumes (with and
without state guarantee)
• Prepared for tougher times
Tier 1 capital ratio, %
6© Swedbank
Business areas
Swedish Banking
• Continued lending growth, corporate lending
decreased due to cooperation with Kommuninvest
• Net interest income increased by 6%
• Continued focus on cost control and credit quality
Baltic Banking
• Significant macroeconomic challenges
• Continued strong profit before loan losses
• Increased provisions for loan losses
• Focus on credit quality
Swedbank Markets
• Growing customer trading and good risk
management entailed continued solid earnings
• Swedbank remains a leading player in the
Swedish corporate bond market
• Market share in equities trading on Nasdaq OMX
Stockholm increased
International Banking
• Increased operating profit
• 18 new branches in Ukraine and two more in
Russia during the period – focus on attracting
deposits
• Good business development in the Nordic
branches
• Impairment of goodwill
Comments on issues in focus
8© Swedbank
Credit quality – impaired loans are increasing
Share of impaired loansDistribution of lending
Sw edbank
Mortgage
49%
Latvia
6%
Estonia
7%
Sweden
75%
Other
7%Lithuania
5%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08
Swedbank Mortgage Swedish Banking Baltic Banking Group
%
9© Swedbank
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Q1-06
Q2-06
Q3-06
Q4-06
Q1-07
Q2-07
Q3-07
Q4-07
Q1-08
Q2-08
Q3-08
Q4-08
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Q1-06
Q2-06
Q3-06
Q4-06
Q1-07
Q2-07
Q3-07
Q4-07
Q1-08
Q2-08
Q3-08
Q4-08
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Q1-06
Q2-06
Q3-06
Q4-06
Q1-07
Q2-07
Q3-07
Q4-07
Q1-08
Q2-08
Q3-08
Q4-08
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Credit quality – write-offs still low
Swedish Banking
Baltic Banking
Swedbank Mortgage
SEKm
SEKm
SEKm
%
%
%
Loan losses, net Write-offs Loan loss ratio, net
Loan losses, net = write-offs + provisions –recoveries
10© Swedbank
Selected exposures – limited risk
• The secured exposure to Lehman is unchanged – USD 1 350m
– 69 loans with 55 properties as underlying collateral
– The collateral value is well above the exposure amount
– Updated analysis shows that there is no further need of provisions
• Exposure to hedge funds – SEK 1.4bn
– All exposure is secured
• Exposure to Conduits and SIVs – SEK 94m
• Exposure to CDOs – SEK 183m
• Exposure to Private Equity – SEK 15.1bn
– Nordic acquisition finance
– 99% constitutes senior debt
– Largest sector is health care, 45 %
– Average loan amount is about SEK 650m
11© Swedbank
Low risk in interest-bearing securities (SEK 134bn)
As of 31 December, around 19
percent of the Group’s interest-
bearing securities were valued
using valuation models against
around 81 percent as of 30
September and around 5 percent as
of 31 December 2007
Holding distributed per sector
Mortgage
bonds, covered
37%
Public sector
21%
Banks
15%
Other
corporations
11%
Other financial
corporations
9%
Mortgage
bonds, not
covered
7%
Holding distributed per currency
SEK
73%
EUR
16%
USD
4%
NOK
5%
LVL
1%
LTL
1%
EEK
0%
GBP
0%
Geographic distribution of issuers
Sweden
73%
UK
7%
Norway
5%
USA
5%
Baltics
2%
Others
8%
Accounting classification
Held for
trading*
93%
Held-to-
maturity
investments
**Reclass-
ified as of
2008-06-30
6%
Held-to-
maturity
investments
** Intitial
classification
1%
* Recognised at fair value with changes in value through P/L.
** Measured at amortised cost
12© Swedbank
Liquidity for more than 1 year
Stress test of liquidity as of 31 Dec 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
1W 2W 3W 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 9M 1Y
SEKbn
31/12/2008 05/02/2009
Main assumption: No access to capital markets; no refinancing of
lending to credit institutions, issued bonds or subordinated loans.
13© Swedbank
Prepared for tougher times
• Tier 1 capital ratio, 10.7 %
• Solid liquidity
• Closer evaluations of exposures deemed at higher risk
• Continued focus on systematic work in the Baltics:
– Reinforcement of resources
– Processes
– Legal structures
– Scenario planning
14© Swedbank
Group results
Mikael Inglander
CFO
15© Swedbank
Income statement, Group
SEKm
Q4
2008
Q3
2008 %
Q4
2007 %
Net interest income 5 742 5 424 6 5 259 9
Net commission income 2 011 2 265 – 11 2 536 – 21
Net gains/losses on financial items at fair value 1 244 – 109 386
Other income 1 349 658 693 95
Total income 10 346 8 238 26 8 874 17
Staff costs 2 340 2 223 5 2 111 11
Profit-based staff costs 262 235 11 522 – 50
Other expenses* 2 300 1 855 24 1 893 22
Total expenses 4 902 4 313 14 4 526 8
Profit before loan losses 5 444 3 925 39 4 348 25
Loan losses, net 1 633 812 238
Operating profit 3 811 3 113 22 4 110 – 7
Tax 500 640 – 22 950 – 47
Profit for the period 3 311 2 473 34 3 160 5
Attributable to shareholders of Swedbank 3 318 2 468 34 3 108 7
* Excluding impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m, Q4 2008
16© Swedbank
Income statement, Group
SEKm
Jan-Dec
2008
Jan-Dec
2007 %
Net interest income 21 702 19 157 13
Net commission income 8 830 9 880 – 11
Net gains/losses on financial items at fair value 2 351 1 691 39
Other income 3 580 2 196 63
Total income 36 463 32 924 11
Staff costs 9 142 8 134 12
Profit-based staff costs 950 1 658 – 43
Other expenses* 7 993 6 927 15
Total expenses 18 085 16 719 8
Profit before loan losses 18 378 16 205 13
Loan losses , net 3 156 619
Operating profit 15 222 15 586 – 2
Tax 2 880 3 450 – 17
Profit for the period 12 342 12 136 2
Attributable to shareholders of Swedbank 12 290 11 996 2
* Excluding impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m, 2008
17© Swedbank
Business areas
2008 vs 2007, SEKm 2008 % 2008 % 2008 % 2008 % 2008 %
Net interest income 11 840 1 6 448 14 2 171 89 1 555 32 76 – 8
Net commission income 4 078 – 9 1 925 4 354 16 960 – 28 1 513 – 19
Other income 2 349 59 1 040 – 17 407 530 – 30 209 – 10
Total income 18 267 3 9 413 7 2 932 87 3 045 – 7 1 798 – 18
Staff costs 4 282 – 0 1 801 – 12 846 80 1 094 – 7 414 – 3
Other expenses 4 799 2 1 796 20 769 78 760 11 427 – 8
Total expenses 9 081 1 3 597 1 1 615 79 1 854 – 0 841 – 5
Profit before loan losses 9 186 6 5 816 11 1 317 99 1 191 – 16 957 – 26
Loan losses, net 594 1 800 478 290 0
Operating profit 8 592 0 4 016 – 16 839 70 901 – 36 957 – 26
Tax 2 156 – 11 367 – 19 261 231 – 39 224 – 30
Profit for the period 6 436 4 3 649 – 16 578 54 670 – 35 733 – 25
Attributable to Swedbank's
shareholders 6 425 4 3 649 – 16 578 54 629 – 30 733 – 25
Return on allocated equity, % 21.8 24.4 6.5 17.6 33.6
* Excluding impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m, 2008
Ukrainian Banking Operations was consolidated July 2007
Asset
Mgmt
Int'l.
Banking*
Swedish
Banking
Baltic
Banking
Swedbank
Markets
18© Swedbank
Net interest income, Swedish Banking
SEKm
Q4 2008
vs Q3 2008
Q4 2008
vs Q4 2007
Net interest income Q3 2008 2 857
Net interest income Q4 2007 2 927
Changes:
Higher lending volumes 15 166
Higher lending margins 247 197
Higher deposit volumes 36
Decreased deposit volumes – 40
Decreased deposit margins – 81 – 103
Other changes 32 – 193
Total change 173 103
Net interest income Q4 2008 3 030 3 030
19© Swedbank
Baltic Banking Operations, change in net interest income
SEKm
Q4 2008
vs Q3 2008
Q4 2008
vs Q4 2007
Net interest income Q3 2008 1 667
Net interest income Q4 2007 1 588
Changes:
Higher lending volumes 104
Decreased lending margins -24 -124
Exchange rate effect, lending 67 89
Decreased deposit volumes -61 -14
Higher deposit margins 206 72
Exchange rate effect, deposits 41 59
Other changes -221 -99
Total change 8 87
Net interest income Q4 2008 1 675 1 675
20© Swedbank
Net commission income, Group
SEKm
Q4
2008
Q3
2008 %
Q4
2007 %
Payments 889 899 – 1 800 11
Lending 129 194 – 34 162 – 20
Brokerage 141 166 – 15 290 – 51
Asset management 727 864 – 16 995 – 27
Insurance 59 69 – 14 80 – 26
Corporate finance 58 22 209 – 72
Other 8 51 – 84 0
Total net commissions 2 011 2 265 – 11 2 536 – 21
21© Swedbank
Net gains and losses on financial items at fair value
SEKm Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q2 2008 Q1 2008 Q4 2007 Q3 2007
Swedish Banking 828 -126 179 16 116 1
Swedbank Mortgage open interest rate exposure 763 -172 29 -22 66 -129
MasterCard 101 89
Baltic Banking 12 107 205 78 163 213
International Banking 229 -6 114 22 30 42
Inefficiency in hedge accounting -126 -72 61
Swedbank Markets 304 -210 118 244 137 167
Valuation of credit bonds 0 -217 0 -187 0 -60
Asset Management & Insurance 1 -14 25 -15 -1 1
Shared Service and Group Staff -156 139 512 -270 -31 -228
Derivatives Group funding 0 0 419 -272 21 -89
Eliminations 26 1 -12 0 -28 0
Total net gains and losses 1 244 – 109 1 141 75 386 196
22© Swedbank
Expenses
SEKm
Q4
2008
Q3
2008 %
Q4
2007 %
Swedish Banking 2 390 2 197 9 2 279 5
Baltic Banking Operations 977 926 6 1 062 – 8
International Banking* 557 315 77 302 84
Swedbank Markets 500 398 26 530 – 6
Asset Management & Insurance 182 200 – 9 230 – 21
Other 296 277 7 123
Total expenses 4 902 4 313 14 4 526 8
of which staff costs in:
Swedish Banking 1 120 1 046 7 1 096 2
Baltic Banking 453 483 – 6 587 – 23
International Banking 257 213 21 173 49
Swedbank Markets 261 227 15 333 – 22
Asset Management & Insurance 107 99 8 138 – 22
* Excluding impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m, Q4 2008
23© Swedbank
Key figures, Group
Jan-Dec
2008
Jan-Dec
2007
Return on equity, % * 17.1 18.9
Earnings per share, SEK * 21.95 21.78
Equity per share, SEK 111.54 131.96
C/I ratio * 0.50 0.51
Loan loss ratio, % 0.28 0.07
Share of impaired loans, % 0.52 0.13
Provision ratio for impaired loans, % 60 120
Core tier 1 capital ratio, new rules, % 9.3 7.3
Tier 1 capital ratio, new rules, % 10.7 8.5
Capital adequacy ratio, new rules, % 14.8 12.7
* Excluding impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m, 2008
24© Swedbank
Summary
• Strong result
• Transparent, diversified balance sheet
• Improved capitalization and liquidity
• Focus on systematic work to manage the Group through more
difficult times
25© Swedbank
Appendix
26© Swedbank
Shipping exposure
• Exposure to shipping companies
amounted to SEK 20.4bn as of 31
December
– Duration of the portfolio is 4 years
– Average age of vessels is six years
– Limited exposure to dry cargo (9%) and car
transports (2.7%)
– Customers generally have long freight
contracts
Tanker
33%
Ro-Ro,
Container
&Bulk
25%
Offshore
42%
27© Swedbank
Maturity profile – long-term funding
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-
SEKbn,nom.amount
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014-
SEKbn,nom.amount
Swedbank (excl. Swedbank Mortgage) Maturity profile Swedbank Mortgage, Maturity profile
28© Swedbank
Long-term funding 2008-2009
* As of 9 Feb 2009
SEK bn Swedbank Swedbank Mortgage
Debt to mature 2008 55 155
Issued 2008 110 97
-of which guaranteed 61 0
Debt to mature 2009 49 104
Issued 2009* 41 5
-of which guaranteed 40 0
Swedbank Group - Long-term funding
29© Swedbank
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
70,0%
<30% 30-50% 50-60% 60-75% 75-85% >85%
Småhus Flerfamiljshus (inkl Brf) Bostadsrätter
Mortgage lending, Sweden
SEK 595bn
LTV
Lending
Funding
Average loan-to-value 46 percent. More than 50 percent of the
total loan portfolio has a loan-to-value ratio of less than 30
percent.
LTV
Share of
portfolio
Forest &
Agriculture
6%
Single family homes
60%
Commercial real
estate
0%
Condiminiums
15%
Multi-family homes
2%
Tenant ow ners
associations
14%
Public sector
3%
CP
26%
Covered
Bonds
68%
Equity
6%
Funding
30© Swedbank
Renting of single-
family homes
28%
Renting,
industry
36%
Renting, other
estate
9%
Renting, other
industry
8%
Tenant ow ners
associationsr
19%
Other lending to the public, Sweden
(excl. Swedbank Mortgage), SEK 309bn
Real estate management
SEKbn
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
Public sector
Other corporate lending
Forestry and agriculture
Transportation
Industry
Construction
Hotel and restaurant
Retail and w holesale
Real estate management
Individuals
31© Swedbank
Baltic Banking
32© Swedbank
Asset quality
Net loan losses
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
Q107
Q207
Q307
Q407
Q108
Q208
Q308
Q408
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
EURm
Net loan losses NLL YoY% growth
0.98%
0.58%
1.61%
0.77%
2008
1.91%
0.77%
3.70%
1.32%
Q4 08
0.35%Baltic Banking
0.17%Lithuania
0.51%Latvia
0.33%Estonia
2007
Net loan losses
0.98%
0.29%
0.52%
1.02%
2.16%
1.32%
2008
0.35%
0.34%
0.33%
0.31%
0.57%
0.42%
2007
1.91%
0.73%
0.95%
1.99%
5.81%
2.95%
Q4 08
incl industry
incl real estate
Baltic Banking
incl private home loans
Private
Corporate
Net loan losses
5.7
5.5
15.1
148.7
0.5%
100.7
2007
40.1
8.7
27.0
320.2
2.6%
535.9
2008
4.8
7,2
8.2
102.2
0.3%
41.5
2006
Total provisions, EURm
Overdues >60 days, %
Total repossessed assets, EURm
Recoveries, EURm
Write offs, EURm
Overdues >60 days, EURm
Risk indicators
33© Swedbank
Asset quality by country
Latvia
8 11
16
60
0
20
40
60
Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08
EURm
Estonia
7 11 14
28
0
20
40
60
Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08
EURm
NLL ratio – change in total provisions (both for performing and non-performing loan portfolio) and net write-offs against beginning of the year portfolio
Lithuania
3 4
12 11
0
20
40
60
Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08
EURm
Net loan loss dynamics
• Global recession has had a large negative impact on
the Baltic economies. The impact is seen as a surge in
net loan loss levels in Q4 2008 in Estonia and Latvia.
Lithuania expected to follow with a time lag
• Downturn has particularly sharp impact on residential
market.
Net loan losses
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08
Est Lat Lit Baltic Banking
34© Swedbank
Private portfolio risk profile
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
EURm
Q4 2007 Q4 2008
SME/SSE risk profile
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
A A- B B- C C- D D- E E- F
EURm
Q4 2007 Q4 2008
Large corporate risk profile
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1 1- 2 2- 3 3- 4 4- 5 5- 6 6- 7
EURm
Q4 2007 Q4 2008
* Risk exposure: on-balance + off-balance portfolio
Low risk
Non-
performing
Low risk Non-
performing
Credit quality of the loan book
• Well diversified portfolio dominated by retail exposures
• Macro developments have triggered downgrades in all
segments:
– Real estate sector drives downgrades in large
corporate segment (exposure > EUR 0.8m). Due to
negative sentiment new lending is down, and the
effect of downgrades cannot be balanced any more
– SME/SSE has been the first segment to react to
downturn. Acceptable risk profile retained (45% of
portfolio with PD<1%)
– Private portfolio has low risk profile (72% with
PD<1%)
Low risk Non-
performing
35© Swedbank
Overdue development
Rising overdues over 90 days have the most impact on rising NLL levels
Corporate, EE
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08
31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days
Corporate, LV
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08
31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days
Corporate, LT
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08
31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days
Private, EE
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08
31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days
Private, LV
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08
31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days
Private, LT
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08
31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days
* Overdues / current portfolio
36© Swedbank
Overdue loans – Swedbank Estonia and
Swedbank Latvia vs market
Estonia - overdues over 60 days / current
portfolio
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
dec-05
mar-06
jun-06
sep-06
dec-06
mar-07
jun-07
sep-07
dec-07
mar-08
apr-08
maj-08
jun-08
sep-08
dec-08
Rest of the market Swedbank Estonia (bank)
Estonia - overdues over 30 days / current
portfolio
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
dec-05
mar-06
jun-06
sep-06
dec-06
mar-07
jun-07
sep-07
dec-07
mar-08
apr-08
maj-08
jun-08
sep-08
dec-08
Rest of the market Swedbank Estonia (bank)
Latvia - overdues over 30 days / current
portfolio
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
dec-04
mar-05
jun-05
sep-05
dec-05
mar-06
jun-06
sep-06
dec-06
mar-07
jun-07
sep-07
dec-07
mar-08
jun-08
sep-08
dec-08
Rest of the market Swedbank Latvia (bank)
Latvia - overdues over 90 days / current
portfolio
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
dec-04
mar-05
jun-05
sep-05
dec-05
mar-06
jun-06
sep-06
dec-06
mar-07
jun-07
sep-07
dec-07
mar-08
jun-08
sep-08
dec-08
Rest of the market Swedbank Latvia (bank)
Source: Bank of Estonia, FKTK of Latvia, Hansabank Group data
37© Swedbank
Baltic lending by sectors
536
1 018
1 678
1 721
3 092
3 241
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000
Other*
Construction
Transport
Industry
Retail &
Wholesale
Real-estate
mgmt
Individuals
EURm
-62
-18
-102
-127
-10
-68
-71
-150 -100 -50 0
Portfolio (EURm), December 2008 Portfolio growth (EURm), Q4 08
xx% - share of portfolio
* Other portfolio includes Other business services, Energy, Agriculture, State & Municipality and Other loans
3%
5%
8%
9%
15%
16%
44%Mortgage Other
38© Swedbank
Estonian lending by sectors
174
282
454
633
1 161
3 854
1 450
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
Other
Construction
Transport
Industry
Retail &
Wholesale
Real-estate
mgmt
Individuals
-28
-7
-52
-77
0
-49
-25
-100 -50 0 50 100 150
Portfolio (EURm), December 2008 Portfolio growth (EURm), Q4 08
48%
2%
4%
6%
8%
15%
18%
xx% - share of portfolio
* Other portfolio includes Other business services, Energy, Agriculture, State & Municipality and Other loans
39© Swedbank
Latvian lending by sectors
252
298
622
511
1 078
2 805
915
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
Other
Construction
Transport
Industry
Retail &
Wholesale
Real-estate
mgmt
Individuals
-6
3
-43
-13
4
-20
-58
-100 -50 0 50 100 150
Portfolio (EURm), December 2008 Portfolio growth (EURm), Q4 08
43%
4%
5%
10%
8%
17%
14%
xx% - share of portfolio
* Other portfolio includes Other business services, Energy, Agriculture, State & Municipality and Other loans
40© Swedbank
Lithuanian lending by sectors
438
603
578
853
2 282
110
877
0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000
Other
Construction
Transport
Industry
Retail &
Wholesale
Real-estate
mgmt
Individuals
-28
-15
-7
-37
-14
0
-2
-50 0 50 100 150
Portfolio (EURm), December 2008 Portfolio growth (EURm), Q4 08
40%
2%
8%
10%
10%
15%
15%
xx% - share of portfolio
* Other portfolio includes Other business services, Energy, Agriculture, State & Municipality and Other loans
41© Swedbank
Mortgage portfolio
LT Mortgage overdues > 30 days
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0m 3m 6m 9m 12m 15m 18m 21m 24m 27m 30m 33m 36m
Overdues/Balance,%
2005 2006 2007 2008
EE Mortgage overdues > 30 days
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0m 3m 6m 9m 12m 15m 18m 21m 24m 27m 30m 33m 36m
Overdues/Balance,%
2005 2006 2007 2008
LV Mortgage overdues > 30 days
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0m 3m 6m 9m 12m 15m 18m 21m 24m 27m 30m 33m 36m
Overdues/Balance,%
2005 2006 2007 2008
• Due to the effects of crisis all vintages are
converging to the same level of overdues.
Complicated to separate the effects of
origination quality from the downturn impact
* Part of loans issued backed by guarantee of the State insurance company
12%
30%
67%
EE
13%
33%
70%
LT*
12%LTV>100% (share of portfolio)
38%LTV>80% (share of portfolio)
71%LTV, total portfolio
LV
© Swedbank
Corporate client portfolio
• From 2005 to 2008, new lending changed
– New lending in 2006 and 2007 mainly went to
companies rated 4 or 5 (scale of 7)
– In 2008, the downturn caused downgrades,
rating 5 real estate portfolio most affected
– New lending in 2008 focused to high quality
borrowers, mainly ratings 1 to 3-. Volumes
decreasing due to negative market sentiment
Large corporate risk profile
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1 1- 2 2- 3 3- 4 4- 5 5- 6 6- 7
mEUR
2007
2008
BB Rating 6 & 7 exposures
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200
2008
2007
EURm
Commercial real estate
Production
Retailing
Transportation
Other
BB Total provisions, YTD
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
2008
2007
mEUR
Commercial real estate
Production
Retailing
Transportation
Other
43© Swedbank
Real estate portfolio
• Real estate and in particular residential
development is the most sensitive
sector in Baltic Banking portfolio
• Around 58% from total Real Estate
portfolio are cash flow generating
properties with good tenant mix. Baltic Banking
has always strictly restrained from financing
speculative type of properties
• Downturn has caused drop in residential
market transaction volumes. As a result residential
development portfolio (31% of total real estate portfolio) is demonstrating increase in overdue and default
figures. Portfolio vulnerabilities are well understood and monitored, action plans set on a case by case
basis
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
Dec.04 Jūn.05 Dec.05 Jūn.06 Dec.06 Jūn.07 Dec.07 Jūn.08 Dec.08
Nooftransactions
Tallinn Riga Vilnius
Apartment transaction volume development
44© Swedbank
Baltic lending by sectors – real estate
Portfolio, December 2008
Estonia
24%
6%
23%
29%
15%
3%
3%
18%
43%
5% 8%
8%
15%
Construction Other
Individuals Transport
Production Retail & Wholesale
Real-estate mgmt
Latvia
15%
12%
22%
11%
2%
38%
Lithuania
13%
5%
31%
40%
6%
5%
Office
Production&Warehouse
Residential
Retail
Land plots
Other
45© Swedbank
Collateral breakdown
100%
2%
4%
5%
18%
2%
38%
36%
2%
%
20,167
279
706
985
3,621
668
7,960
6,660
273
Dec
2007
1%370State
20,569
328
776
1,104
3,742
317
7,715
7,321
Dec
2008
100%
1%
4%
5%
18%
3%
39%
33%
%
Other collateral*
Unsecured
Unsecured corporate
Unsecured private
Corporate real-estate
Private real-estate
Guarantees
Total**
• Baltic Banking loan portfolio is adequately
secured.
• Private mortgage portfolio is fully covered with
family houses and apartments (as a rule owner
occupied).
• Commercial real estate collaterals are revaluated
at least once per year. Valuation is performed by
independent experts.
• Full asset pledge, including tangible assets and
current assets, is most common case for
Corporate portfolio. Collateral position
enhancement with owner guarantees and
additional collateral is used for more risky
customers and SME segments.
• The share of unsecured loans is insignificant:
5.4% (used for top ratings in corporate segment
and consumer products in private).
Baltic Collateral (EURm)
*Other collateral is deposits, customer payments, vehicles, etc
** Total loans including repos

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CEO presentation of Q4 2008 results

  • 1. Interim report Q4 2008 12 February 2009 Jan Lidén President and CEO
  • 2. 2© Swedbank Content • Fourth quarter 2008 – Group – Business areas • Comments on issues in focus – Credit quality – Liquidity and funding – Capitalization – Dividend • Summary and conclusions
  • 4. 4© Swedbank Fourth quarter 2008 – Group • Profit for the period increased by 34% to SEK 3 318m (2 468 Q3), excl. impairment of goodwill • Net interest income increased by +6% to SEK 5 742m (5 424) • Net commission income decreased by 11% due to downturn in the stock market • Increased provisions for loan losses, SEK 1 633m (812), of which Baltic Banking amounted to SEK 977m • Impairment of goodwill in Ukraine amounted to SEK 1 403m • The proposed dividend amounts to SEK 2.40 per preference share and SEK 4.50 per ordinary share. Profit for the period, SEKm * Excl. impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m
  • 5. 5© Swedbank ** Including total subscribed capital Fourth quarter 2008 – Group, cont. • Successful share issue of SEK 12.4bn increases the tier 1 capital ratio to 10.7% • Stronger liquidity due to larger funding volumes (with and without state guarantee) • Prepared for tougher times Tier 1 capital ratio, %
  • 6. 6© Swedbank Business areas Swedish Banking • Continued lending growth, corporate lending decreased due to cooperation with Kommuninvest • Net interest income increased by 6% • Continued focus on cost control and credit quality Baltic Banking • Significant macroeconomic challenges • Continued strong profit before loan losses • Increased provisions for loan losses • Focus on credit quality Swedbank Markets • Growing customer trading and good risk management entailed continued solid earnings • Swedbank remains a leading player in the Swedish corporate bond market • Market share in equities trading on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm increased International Banking • Increased operating profit • 18 new branches in Ukraine and two more in Russia during the period – focus on attracting deposits • Good business development in the Nordic branches • Impairment of goodwill
  • 8. 8© Swedbank Credit quality – impaired loans are increasing Share of impaired loansDistribution of lending Sw edbank Mortgage 49% Latvia 6% Estonia 7% Sweden 75% Other 7%Lithuania 5% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Swedbank Mortgage Swedish Banking Baltic Banking Group %
  • 10. 10© Swedbank Selected exposures – limited risk • The secured exposure to Lehman is unchanged – USD 1 350m – 69 loans with 55 properties as underlying collateral – The collateral value is well above the exposure amount – Updated analysis shows that there is no further need of provisions • Exposure to hedge funds – SEK 1.4bn – All exposure is secured • Exposure to Conduits and SIVs – SEK 94m • Exposure to CDOs – SEK 183m • Exposure to Private Equity – SEK 15.1bn – Nordic acquisition finance – 99% constitutes senior debt – Largest sector is health care, 45 % – Average loan amount is about SEK 650m
  • 11. 11© Swedbank Low risk in interest-bearing securities (SEK 134bn) As of 31 December, around 19 percent of the Group’s interest- bearing securities were valued using valuation models against around 81 percent as of 30 September and around 5 percent as of 31 December 2007 Holding distributed per sector Mortgage bonds, covered 37% Public sector 21% Banks 15% Other corporations 11% Other financial corporations 9% Mortgage bonds, not covered 7% Holding distributed per currency SEK 73% EUR 16% USD 4% NOK 5% LVL 1% LTL 1% EEK 0% GBP 0% Geographic distribution of issuers Sweden 73% UK 7% Norway 5% USA 5% Baltics 2% Others 8% Accounting classification Held for trading* 93% Held-to- maturity investments **Reclass- ified as of 2008-06-30 6% Held-to- maturity investments ** Intitial classification 1% * Recognised at fair value with changes in value through P/L. ** Measured at amortised cost
  • 12. 12© Swedbank Liquidity for more than 1 year Stress test of liquidity as of 31 Dec 2008 0 50 100 150 200 250 1W 2W 3W 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 9M 1Y SEKbn 31/12/2008 05/02/2009 Main assumption: No access to capital markets; no refinancing of lending to credit institutions, issued bonds or subordinated loans.
  • 13. 13© Swedbank Prepared for tougher times • Tier 1 capital ratio, 10.7 % • Solid liquidity • Closer evaluations of exposures deemed at higher risk • Continued focus on systematic work in the Baltics: – Reinforcement of resources – Processes – Legal structures – Scenario planning
  • 15. 15© Swedbank Income statement, Group SEKm Q4 2008 Q3 2008 % Q4 2007 % Net interest income 5 742 5 424 6 5 259 9 Net commission income 2 011 2 265 – 11 2 536 – 21 Net gains/losses on financial items at fair value 1 244 – 109 386 Other income 1 349 658 693 95 Total income 10 346 8 238 26 8 874 17 Staff costs 2 340 2 223 5 2 111 11 Profit-based staff costs 262 235 11 522 – 50 Other expenses* 2 300 1 855 24 1 893 22 Total expenses 4 902 4 313 14 4 526 8 Profit before loan losses 5 444 3 925 39 4 348 25 Loan losses, net 1 633 812 238 Operating profit 3 811 3 113 22 4 110 – 7 Tax 500 640 – 22 950 – 47 Profit for the period 3 311 2 473 34 3 160 5 Attributable to shareholders of Swedbank 3 318 2 468 34 3 108 7 * Excluding impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m, Q4 2008
  • 16. 16© Swedbank Income statement, Group SEKm Jan-Dec 2008 Jan-Dec 2007 % Net interest income 21 702 19 157 13 Net commission income 8 830 9 880 – 11 Net gains/losses on financial items at fair value 2 351 1 691 39 Other income 3 580 2 196 63 Total income 36 463 32 924 11 Staff costs 9 142 8 134 12 Profit-based staff costs 950 1 658 – 43 Other expenses* 7 993 6 927 15 Total expenses 18 085 16 719 8 Profit before loan losses 18 378 16 205 13 Loan losses , net 3 156 619 Operating profit 15 222 15 586 – 2 Tax 2 880 3 450 – 17 Profit for the period 12 342 12 136 2 Attributable to shareholders of Swedbank 12 290 11 996 2 * Excluding impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m, 2008
  • 17. 17© Swedbank Business areas 2008 vs 2007, SEKm 2008 % 2008 % 2008 % 2008 % 2008 % Net interest income 11 840 1 6 448 14 2 171 89 1 555 32 76 – 8 Net commission income 4 078 – 9 1 925 4 354 16 960 – 28 1 513 – 19 Other income 2 349 59 1 040 – 17 407 530 – 30 209 – 10 Total income 18 267 3 9 413 7 2 932 87 3 045 – 7 1 798 – 18 Staff costs 4 282 – 0 1 801 – 12 846 80 1 094 – 7 414 – 3 Other expenses 4 799 2 1 796 20 769 78 760 11 427 – 8 Total expenses 9 081 1 3 597 1 1 615 79 1 854 – 0 841 – 5 Profit before loan losses 9 186 6 5 816 11 1 317 99 1 191 – 16 957 – 26 Loan losses, net 594 1 800 478 290 0 Operating profit 8 592 0 4 016 – 16 839 70 901 – 36 957 – 26 Tax 2 156 – 11 367 – 19 261 231 – 39 224 – 30 Profit for the period 6 436 4 3 649 – 16 578 54 670 – 35 733 – 25 Attributable to Swedbank's shareholders 6 425 4 3 649 – 16 578 54 629 – 30 733 – 25 Return on allocated equity, % 21.8 24.4 6.5 17.6 33.6 * Excluding impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m, 2008 Ukrainian Banking Operations was consolidated July 2007 Asset Mgmt Int'l. Banking* Swedish Banking Baltic Banking Swedbank Markets
  • 18. 18© Swedbank Net interest income, Swedish Banking SEKm Q4 2008 vs Q3 2008 Q4 2008 vs Q4 2007 Net interest income Q3 2008 2 857 Net interest income Q4 2007 2 927 Changes: Higher lending volumes 15 166 Higher lending margins 247 197 Higher deposit volumes 36 Decreased deposit volumes – 40 Decreased deposit margins – 81 – 103 Other changes 32 – 193 Total change 173 103 Net interest income Q4 2008 3 030 3 030
  • 19. 19© Swedbank Baltic Banking Operations, change in net interest income SEKm Q4 2008 vs Q3 2008 Q4 2008 vs Q4 2007 Net interest income Q3 2008 1 667 Net interest income Q4 2007 1 588 Changes: Higher lending volumes 104 Decreased lending margins -24 -124 Exchange rate effect, lending 67 89 Decreased deposit volumes -61 -14 Higher deposit margins 206 72 Exchange rate effect, deposits 41 59 Other changes -221 -99 Total change 8 87 Net interest income Q4 2008 1 675 1 675
  • 20. 20© Swedbank Net commission income, Group SEKm Q4 2008 Q3 2008 % Q4 2007 % Payments 889 899 – 1 800 11 Lending 129 194 – 34 162 – 20 Brokerage 141 166 – 15 290 – 51 Asset management 727 864 – 16 995 – 27 Insurance 59 69 – 14 80 – 26 Corporate finance 58 22 209 – 72 Other 8 51 – 84 0 Total net commissions 2 011 2 265 – 11 2 536 – 21
  • 21. 21© Swedbank Net gains and losses on financial items at fair value SEKm Q4 2008 Q3 2008 Q2 2008 Q1 2008 Q4 2007 Q3 2007 Swedish Banking 828 -126 179 16 116 1 Swedbank Mortgage open interest rate exposure 763 -172 29 -22 66 -129 MasterCard 101 89 Baltic Banking 12 107 205 78 163 213 International Banking 229 -6 114 22 30 42 Inefficiency in hedge accounting -126 -72 61 Swedbank Markets 304 -210 118 244 137 167 Valuation of credit bonds 0 -217 0 -187 0 -60 Asset Management & Insurance 1 -14 25 -15 -1 1 Shared Service and Group Staff -156 139 512 -270 -31 -228 Derivatives Group funding 0 0 419 -272 21 -89 Eliminations 26 1 -12 0 -28 0 Total net gains and losses 1 244 – 109 1 141 75 386 196
  • 22. 22© Swedbank Expenses SEKm Q4 2008 Q3 2008 % Q4 2007 % Swedish Banking 2 390 2 197 9 2 279 5 Baltic Banking Operations 977 926 6 1 062 – 8 International Banking* 557 315 77 302 84 Swedbank Markets 500 398 26 530 – 6 Asset Management & Insurance 182 200 – 9 230 – 21 Other 296 277 7 123 Total expenses 4 902 4 313 14 4 526 8 of which staff costs in: Swedish Banking 1 120 1 046 7 1 096 2 Baltic Banking 453 483 – 6 587 – 23 International Banking 257 213 21 173 49 Swedbank Markets 261 227 15 333 – 22 Asset Management & Insurance 107 99 8 138 – 22 * Excluding impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m, Q4 2008
  • 23. 23© Swedbank Key figures, Group Jan-Dec 2008 Jan-Dec 2007 Return on equity, % * 17.1 18.9 Earnings per share, SEK * 21.95 21.78 Equity per share, SEK 111.54 131.96 C/I ratio * 0.50 0.51 Loan loss ratio, % 0.28 0.07 Share of impaired loans, % 0.52 0.13 Provision ratio for impaired loans, % 60 120 Core tier 1 capital ratio, new rules, % 9.3 7.3 Tier 1 capital ratio, new rules, % 10.7 8.5 Capital adequacy ratio, new rules, % 14.8 12.7 * Excluding impairment of goodwill SEK 1 403m, 2008
  • 24. 24© Swedbank Summary • Strong result • Transparent, diversified balance sheet • Improved capitalization and liquidity • Focus on systematic work to manage the Group through more difficult times
  • 26. 26© Swedbank Shipping exposure • Exposure to shipping companies amounted to SEK 20.4bn as of 31 December – Duration of the portfolio is 4 years – Average age of vessels is six years – Limited exposure to dry cargo (9%) and car transports (2.7%) – Customers generally have long freight contracts Tanker 33% Ro-Ro, Container &Bulk 25% Offshore 42%
  • 27. 27© Swedbank Maturity profile – long-term funding 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014- SEKbn,nom.amount 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014- SEKbn,nom.amount Swedbank (excl. Swedbank Mortgage) Maturity profile Swedbank Mortgage, Maturity profile
  • 28. 28© Swedbank Long-term funding 2008-2009 * As of 9 Feb 2009 SEK bn Swedbank Swedbank Mortgage Debt to mature 2008 55 155 Issued 2008 110 97 -of which guaranteed 61 0 Debt to mature 2009 49 104 Issued 2009* 41 5 -of which guaranteed 40 0 Swedbank Group - Long-term funding
  • 29. 29© Swedbank 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% <30% 30-50% 50-60% 60-75% 75-85% >85% Småhus Flerfamiljshus (inkl Brf) Bostadsrätter Mortgage lending, Sweden SEK 595bn LTV Lending Funding Average loan-to-value 46 percent. More than 50 percent of the total loan portfolio has a loan-to-value ratio of less than 30 percent. LTV Share of portfolio Forest & Agriculture 6% Single family homes 60% Commercial real estate 0% Condiminiums 15% Multi-family homes 2% Tenant ow ners associations 14% Public sector 3% CP 26% Covered Bonds 68% Equity 6% Funding
  • 30. 30© Swedbank Renting of single- family homes 28% Renting, industry 36% Renting, other estate 9% Renting, other industry 8% Tenant ow ners associationsr 19% Other lending to the public, Sweden (excl. Swedbank Mortgage), SEK 309bn Real estate management SEKbn 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 Public sector Other corporate lending Forestry and agriculture Transportation Industry Construction Hotel and restaurant Retail and w holesale Real estate management Individuals
  • 32. 32© Swedbank Asset quality Net loan losses -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 EURm Net loan losses NLL YoY% growth 0.98% 0.58% 1.61% 0.77% 2008 1.91% 0.77% 3.70% 1.32% Q4 08 0.35%Baltic Banking 0.17%Lithuania 0.51%Latvia 0.33%Estonia 2007 Net loan losses 0.98% 0.29% 0.52% 1.02% 2.16% 1.32% 2008 0.35% 0.34% 0.33% 0.31% 0.57% 0.42% 2007 1.91% 0.73% 0.95% 1.99% 5.81% 2.95% Q4 08 incl industry incl real estate Baltic Banking incl private home loans Private Corporate Net loan losses 5.7 5.5 15.1 148.7 0.5% 100.7 2007 40.1 8.7 27.0 320.2 2.6% 535.9 2008 4.8 7,2 8.2 102.2 0.3% 41.5 2006 Total provisions, EURm Overdues >60 days, % Total repossessed assets, EURm Recoveries, EURm Write offs, EURm Overdues >60 days, EURm Risk indicators
  • 33. 33© Swedbank Asset quality by country Latvia 8 11 16 60 0 20 40 60 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 EURm Estonia 7 11 14 28 0 20 40 60 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 EURm NLL ratio – change in total provisions (both for performing and non-performing loan portfolio) and net write-offs against beginning of the year portfolio Lithuania 3 4 12 11 0 20 40 60 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 EURm Net loan loss dynamics • Global recession has had a large negative impact on the Baltic economies. The impact is seen as a surge in net loan loss levels in Q4 2008 in Estonia and Latvia. Lithuania expected to follow with a time lag • Downturn has particularly sharp impact on residential market. Net loan losses 0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Est Lat Lit Baltic Banking
  • 34. 34© Swedbank Private portfolio risk profile 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 EURm Q4 2007 Q4 2008 SME/SSE risk profile 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% A A- B B- C C- D D- E E- F EURm Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Large corporate risk profile 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1 1- 2 2- 3 3- 4 4- 5 5- 6 6- 7 EURm Q4 2007 Q4 2008 * Risk exposure: on-balance + off-balance portfolio Low risk Non- performing Low risk Non- performing Credit quality of the loan book • Well diversified portfolio dominated by retail exposures • Macro developments have triggered downgrades in all segments: – Real estate sector drives downgrades in large corporate segment (exposure > EUR 0.8m). Due to negative sentiment new lending is down, and the effect of downgrades cannot be balanced any more – SME/SSE has been the first segment to react to downturn. Acceptable risk profile retained (45% of portfolio with PD<1%) – Private portfolio has low risk profile (72% with PD<1%) Low risk Non- performing
  • 35. 35© Swedbank Overdue development Rising overdues over 90 days have the most impact on rising NLL levels Corporate, EE 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days Corporate, LV 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days Corporate, LT 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days Private, EE 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days Private, LV 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days Private, LT 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 31-60 days 61-90 days over 90 days * Overdues / current portfolio
  • 36. 36© Swedbank Overdue loans – Swedbank Estonia and Swedbank Latvia vs market Estonia - overdues over 60 days / current portfolio 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% dec-05 mar-06 jun-06 sep-06 dec-06 mar-07 jun-07 sep-07 dec-07 mar-08 apr-08 maj-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 Rest of the market Swedbank Estonia (bank) Estonia - overdues over 30 days / current portfolio 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% dec-05 mar-06 jun-06 sep-06 dec-06 mar-07 jun-07 sep-07 dec-07 mar-08 apr-08 maj-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 Rest of the market Swedbank Estonia (bank) Latvia - overdues over 30 days / current portfolio 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% dec-04 mar-05 jun-05 sep-05 dec-05 mar-06 jun-06 sep-06 dec-06 mar-07 jun-07 sep-07 dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 Rest of the market Swedbank Latvia (bank) Latvia - overdues over 90 days / current portfolio 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% dec-04 mar-05 jun-05 sep-05 dec-05 mar-06 jun-06 sep-06 dec-06 mar-07 jun-07 sep-07 dec-07 mar-08 jun-08 sep-08 dec-08 Rest of the market Swedbank Latvia (bank) Source: Bank of Estonia, FKTK of Latvia, Hansabank Group data
  • 37. 37© Swedbank Baltic lending by sectors 536 1 018 1 678 1 721 3 092 3 241 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 Other* Construction Transport Industry Retail & Wholesale Real-estate mgmt Individuals EURm -62 -18 -102 -127 -10 -68 -71 -150 -100 -50 0 Portfolio (EURm), December 2008 Portfolio growth (EURm), Q4 08 xx% - share of portfolio * Other portfolio includes Other business services, Energy, Agriculture, State & Municipality and Other loans 3% 5% 8% 9% 15% 16% 44%Mortgage Other
  • 38. 38© Swedbank Estonian lending by sectors 174 282 454 633 1 161 3 854 1 450 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 Other Construction Transport Industry Retail & Wholesale Real-estate mgmt Individuals -28 -7 -52 -77 0 -49 -25 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 Portfolio (EURm), December 2008 Portfolio growth (EURm), Q4 08 48% 2% 4% 6% 8% 15% 18% xx% - share of portfolio * Other portfolio includes Other business services, Energy, Agriculture, State & Municipality and Other loans
  • 39. 39© Swedbank Latvian lending by sectors 252 298 622 511 1 078 2 805 915 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 Other Construction Transport Industry Retail & Wholesale Real-estate mgmt Individuals -6 3 -43 -13 4 -20 -58 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 Portfolio (EURm), December 2008 Portfolio growth (EURm), Q4 08 43% 4% 5% 10% 8% 17% 14% xx% - share of portfolio * Other portfolio includes Other business services, Energy, Agriculture, State & Municipality and Other loans
  • 40. 40© Swedbank Lithuanian lending by sectors 438 603 578 853 2 282 110 877 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 Other Construction Transport Industry Retail & Wholesale Real-estate mgmt Individuals -28 -15 -7 -37 -14 0 -2 -50 0 50 100 150 Portfolio (EURm), December 2008 Portfolio growth (EURm), Q4 08 40% 2% 8% 10% 10% 15% 15% xx% - share of portfolio * Other portfolio includes Other business services, Energy, Agriculture, State & Municipality and Other loans
  • 41. 41© Swedbank Mortgage portfolio LT Mortgage overdues > 30 days 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 0m 3m 6m 9m 12m 15m 18m 21m 24m 27m 30m 33m 36m Overdues/Balance,% 2005 2006 2007 2008 EE Mortgage overdues > 30 days 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 0m 3m 6m 9m 12m 15m 18m 21m 24m 27m 30m 33m 36m Overdues/Balance,% 2005 2006 2007 2008 LV Mortgage overdues > 30 days 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 0m 3m 6m 9m 12m 15m 18m 21m 24m 27m 30m 33m 36m Overdues/Balance,% 2005 2006 2007 2008 • Due to the effects of crisis all vintages are converging to the same level of overdues. Complicated to separate the effects of origination quality from the downturn impact * Part of loans issued backed by guarantee of the State insurance company 12% 30% 67% EE 13% 33% 70% LT* 12%LTV>100% (share of portfolio) 38%LTV>80% (share of portfolio) 71%LTV, total portfolio LV
  • 42. © Swedbank Corporate client portfolio • From 2005 to 2008, new lending changed – New lending in 2006 and 2007 mainly went to companies rated 4 or 5 (scale of 7) – In 2008, the downturn caused downgrades, rating 5 real estate portfolio most affected – New lending in 2008 focused to high quality borrowers, mainly ratings 1 to 3-. Volumes decreasing due to negative market sentiment Large corporate risk profile 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1 1- 2 2- 3 3- 4 4- 5 5- 6 6- 7 mEUR 2007 2008 BB Rating 6 & 7 exposures 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 2008 2007 EURm Commercial real estate Production Retailing Transportation Other BB Total provisions, YTD 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2008 2007 mEUR Commercial real estate Production Retailing Transportation Other
  • 43. 43© Swedbank Real estate portfolio • Real estate and in particular residential development is the most sensitive sector in Baltic Banking portfolio • Around 58% from total Real Estate portfolio are cash flow generating properties with good tenant mix. Baltic Banking has always strictly restrained from financing speculative type of properties • Downturn has caused drop in residential market transaction volumes. As a result residential development portfolio (31% of total real estate portfolio) is demonstrating increase in overdue and default figures. Portfolio vulnerabilities are well understood and monitored, action plans set on a case by case basis 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 Dec.04 Jūn.05 Dec.05 Jūn.06 Dec.06 Jūn.07 Dec.07 Jūn.08 Dec.08 Nooftransactions Tallinn Riga Vilnius Apartment transaction volume development
  • 44. 44© Swedbank Baltic lending by sectors – real estate Portfolio, December 2008 Estonia 24% 6% 23% 29% 15% 3% 3% 18% 43% 5% 8% 8% 15% Construction Other Individuals Transport Production Retail & Wholesale Real-estate mgmt Latvia 15% 12% 22% 11% 2% 38% Lithuania 13% 5% 31% 40% 6% 5% Office Production&Warehouse Residential Retail Land plots Other
  • 45. 45© Swedbank Collateral breakdown 100% 2% 4% 5% 18% 2% 38% 36% 2% % 20,167 279 706 985 3,621 668 7,960 6,660 273 Dec 2007 1%370State 20,569 328 776 1,104 3,742 317 7,715 7,321 Dec 2008 100% 1% 4% 5% 18% 3% 39% 33% % Other collateral* Unsecured Unsecured corporate Unsecured private Corporate real-estate Private real-estate Guarantees Total** • Baltic Banking loan portfolio is adequately secured. • Private mortgage portfolio is fully covered with family houses and apartments (as a rule owner occupied). • Commercial real estate collaterals are revaluated at least once per year. Valuation is performed by independent experts. • Full asset pledge, including tangible assets and current assets, is most common case for Corporate portfolio. Collateral position enhancement with owner guarantees and additional collateral is used for more risky customers and SME segments. • The share of unsecured loans is insignificant: 5.4% (used for top ratings in corporate segment and consumer products in private). Baltic Collateral (EURm) *Other collateral is deposits, customer payments, vehicles, etc ** Total loans including repos