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Global Trends and their Implications for
 Dairy Development South East Asia
      Competitive Dairy Value Chains in South East Asia
            Dairy Expert Round Table Meeting
        Muak Lek, Thailand, December 8 & 9, 2010


             Mr. Bram Wouters
      Wageningen UR Livestock Research
Content of the presentation

 Introduction

 Some characteristics dairy production in SE Asia

 World wide drivers and trends and their
 implications for South East Asia

 Conclusions
Content of the presentation

 Introduction

 Some characteristics dairy production in SE Asia

 World wide drivers and trends and their
 implications for South East Asia

 Conclusions
General characteristics in SE Asia

  No long tradition in milk production and dairy
  consumption
  Milk mainly produced by small holders
  Industrialized milk processing based for a large
  part on import
  Formal and informal marketing channels
  Level of market protection and support of
  government varies
Small scale dairy farm Indonesia
Medium scale dairy farm in Thailand
Large scale dairy farm Malaysia
Milk collection from small scale producers
Some figures (IFCN, 2010)
              Milk       Cons.       Milk price    Farmers
              Product.   L per       Farmers       share of
              * 1000 t   capita/year US $/ litre   cons. price

Thailand        830          20          0.47           44

Indonesia       670          10          0.37            --

Malaysia         60          34          0.58           30

Vietnam          27          11          0.43           41

Philippines      14          14          0.54           38
Milk prices in 2008 in US $ (source: IFCN)
Content of the presentation

 Introduction

 Some characteristics dairy production in SE Asia

 World wide drivers & trends and their implications
 for South East Asia

 Conclusions
World wide drivers for dairy development

   Increased demand for dairy products
     Population growth
     Income growth & urbanization      changing food patterns and
     supermarkets
   National interests
     Food security
     Import substitution or export (foreign exchange position)
     Diversification agriculture
   Rural development
     Food security and improved nutrition
     Income generation & extra employment opportunities
     Regular income source for daily needs
Dairy trends – Policy related trends
Less market protection (WTO, FTA’s)
 >>more fluctuating world market prices:

 World market price
       2009:        26 US$/ 100 kg
 April 2010:        43 US$/ 100 kg


More emphasis on self-sufficiency in food

Emphasis on sustainability (climate change, energy)

Less government support- privatization of services
Dairy trends – Policy related trends


Less market protection (WTO, FTA’s)

More emphasis on self-sufficiency in food

Emphasis on sustainability (climate change, energy)

Less government support- privatization of services
Rate of self sufficiency in dairy products,2008 (IFCN)
Dairy trends – Policy related trends


Less market protection (WTO, FTA’s)

More emphasis on self-sufficiency in food

Emphasis on sustainability (climate change, energy)

Less government support- privatization of services
Sustainability of dairy value chains

People, Planet and Profit (3P):

  Social sustainability: People

  Environmental (ecological)sustainability: Planet

  Economic sustainability: Profit
Dairy trends – Policy related trends


Less market protection (WTO, FTA’s)

More emphasis on self-sufficiency in food

Emphasis on sustainability (climate change, energy)

Less government support- privatization of services
What are the implications for South East Asia?
Less market protection- Issues & options

Issue:
  Level of market protection decreases due to FTA’s

Options:
 Create a more competitive local chain
    Lower cost price (feeding costs)
    Increasing scale of production (requires more land)
    Higher chain efficiency (transaction costs, quality)
    More value out of local milk: branding of “fresh” milk
Less government - Issues & options

Issues:
  Privatization of services
  Transition of government role from actor to
  facilitator, regulator and supervisor
Options:
  Capacity building private sector to take over
  services
  Define responsibilities and roles of government/
  private sector
  Development of government instruments to
  facilitate
Improving Sustainability- Issues and options
 Social issues:
    Inclusion of small holders into modern dairy chains
    Animal welfare: heat stress, housing
 Options
    Development of value chains, producers organisations
    Improvement of farm management and farm designs
 Ecological issues:
    Nutrient flows and recycling (waste management)
    Higher productivity and better use of resources (feed, soil)
 Options:
    Improvement of farm management
 Economic issues: competiveness/ profitability
 Options:
    Lower cost price and higher efficiency at farm level and in chain
Manure handling needs improvement
Dairy Trends- Market


 Increase in scale of production and processing


 Value Chain Development
   More value out of milk,
   Vertical integration: from farm to supermarket


 Emphasis on food safety and standards
Increase scale of production in Netherlands
 Year                    Netherlands    Netherlands
                                1970           2007
 Farms with dairy cows       116,000         21,000

 Total number of cows       1,900,000      1,400,000

 Number of cows per
 farm                             16             65

 Area of grassland +
 forage crops per farm            13             39
 (Hectares)
Dairy Trends- Market


 Increase in scale of production and processing


 Value Chain Development
   More value out of milk,
   Vertical integration: from farm to supermarket


 Emphasis on food safety and standards
Value chain development means:

 Taking the market and/or development of the
 market as starting point
 Cooperation and coordination among actors in
 the chain to increase added value and quality
 Taking sustainability as a condition for
 development
 Adopting an integral approach when developing
 the chain
 Taking as starting point the development stage at
 local level
Value chain development – Issues and options (1)

 Issues:
   Distribution of added value in the chain
   Lack of coordination, cooperation in the chain
   Low efficiency-reduction of transaction costs
   Input and service provision to farmers
 Options
   Improve the organisational level of actors
   Develop better linkages among actors in the
   chain
   Improvement of milk collection systems
Dairy Trends- Market


 Increase in scale of production and processing


 Value Chain Development
   More value out of milk,
   Vertical integration: from farm to supermarket


 Emphasis on food safety and consumer
Total Chain Quality Management and Chain approach

                                                 Consumer
 Suppliers
                          Authorities



                                                   Retail
   Farmers



             Collection         Dairy    Distribution
                              industry
Control of quality of raw
milk and dairy products
Food safety – Issues and options (2)

Issues:
  Improvement of raw milk quality and quality
  control at different stages in the chain
Options:
  Quality based payment systems
  Improvement of farm management and
  advise/services to farmers
  Self regulation of quality control with supervision
  of government
Content of the presentation

 Introduction

 Some characteristics dairy production in SE Asia

 World wide drivers and trends and their
 implications for South East Asia

 Conclusions
Which approach to take for development?
Lessons learnt from other countries/ experiences
  indicate:

  Dairy development needs an integrated approach
    For example: a value chain approach

  Possible options for development should take into
  account the local context

  Stepwise development is more sustainable
Conclusion
 Dairy development with a value chain perspective opens
 opportunities to address issues in an integrated way

 Development of a value chain approach will lead to more
 cooperation, quality improvement and added value

 A value chain approach could lead to better inclusion of
 small holders in modern chains

 Dairy production in SE Asia will have a future BUT requires
 more competitive and sustainable milk production and a
 good enabling environment
Thank you for your attention

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1 bram wouters

  • 1. Global Trends and their Implications for Dairy Development South East Asia Competitive Dairy Value Chains in South East Asia Dairy Expert Round Table Meeting Muak Lek, Thailand, December 8 & 9, 2010 Mr. Bram Wouters Wageningen UR Livestock Research
  • 2. Content of the presentation Introduction Some characteristics dairy production in SE Asia World wide drivers and trends and their implications for South East Asia Conclusions
  • 3. Content of the presentation Introduction Some characteristics dairy production in SE Asia World wide drivers and trends and their implications for South East Asia Conclusions
  • 4. General characteristics in SE Asia No long tradition in milk production and dairy consumption Milk mainly produced by small holders Industrialized milk processing based for a large part on import Formal and informal marketing channels Level of market protection and support of government varies
  • 5. Small scale dairy farm Indonesia
  • 6. Medium scale dairy farm in Thailand
  • 7. Large scale dairy farm Malaysia
  • 8. Milk collection from small scale producers
  • 9. Some figures (IFCN, 2010) Milk Cons. Milk price Farmers Product. L per Farmers share of * 1000 t capita/year US $/ litre cons. price Thailand 830 20 0.47 44 Indonesia 670 10 0.37 -- Malaysia 60 34 0.58 30 Vietnam 27 11 0.43 41 Philippines 14 14 0.54 38
  • 10. Milk prices in 2008 in US $ (source: IFCN)
  • 11. Content of the presentation Introduction Some characteristics dairy production in SE Asia World wide drivers & trends and their implications for South East Asia Conclusions
  • 12. World wide drivers for dairy development Increased demand for dairy products Population growth Income growth & urbanization changing food patterns and supermarkets National interests Food security Import substitution or export (foreign exchange position) Diversification agriculture Rural development Food security and improved nutrition Income generation & extra employment opportunities Regular income source for daily needs
  • 13. Dairy trends – Policy related trends Less market protection (WTO, FTA’s) >>more fluctuating world market prices: World market price 2009: 26 US$/ 100 kg April 2010: 43 US$/ 100 kg More emphasis on self-sufficiency in food Emphasis on sustainability (climate change, energy) Less government support- privatization of services
  • 14. Dairy trends – Policy related trends Less market protection (WTO, FTA’s) More emphasis on self-sufficiency in food Emphasis on sustainability (climate change, energy) Less government support- privatization of services
  • 15. Rate of self sufficiency in dairy products,2008 (IFCN)
  • 16. Dairy trends – Policy related trends Less market protection (WTO, FTA’s) More emphasis on self-sufficiency in food Emphasis on sustainability (climate change, energy) Less government support- privatization of services
  • 17. Sustainability of dairy value chains People, Planet and Profit (3P): Social sustainability: People Environmental (ecological)sustainability: Planet Economic sustainability: Profit
  • 18. Dairy trends – Policy related trends Less market protection (WTO, FTA’s) More emphasis on self-sufficiency in food Emphasis on sustainability (climate change, energy) Less government support- privatization of services
  • 19. What are the implications for South East Asia?
  • 20. Less market protection- Issues & options Issue: Level of market protection decreases due to FTA’s Options: Create a more competitive local chain Lower cost price (feeding costs) Increasing scale of production (requires more land) Higher chain efficiency (transaction costs, quality) More value out of local milk: branding of “fresh” milk
  • 21. Less government - Issues & options Issues: Privatization of services Transition of government role from actor to facilitator, regulator and supervisor Options: Capacity building private sector to take over services Define responsibilities and roles of government/ private sector Development of government instruments to facilitate
  • 22. Improving Sustainability- Issues and options Social issues: Inclusion of small holders into modern dairy chains Animal welfare: heat stress, housing Options Development of value chains, producers organisations Improvement of farm management and farm designs Ecological issues: Nutrient flows and recycling (waste management) Higher productivity and better use of resources (feed, soil) Options: Improvement of farm management Economic issues: competiveness/ profitability Options: Lower cost price and higher efficiency at farm level and in chain
  • 23. Manure handling needs improvement
  • 24. Dairy Trends- Market Increase in scale of production and processing Value Chain Development More value out of milk, Vertical integration: from farm to supermarket Emphasis on food safety and standards
  • 25. Increase scale of production in Netherlands Year Netherlands Netherlands 1970 2007 Farms with dairy cows 116,000 21,000 Total number of cows 1,900,000 1,400,000 Number of cows per farm 16 65 Area of grassland + forage crops per farm 13 39 (Hectares)
  • 26. Dairy Trends- Market Increase in scale of production and processing Value Chain Development More value out of milk, Vertical integration: from farm to supermarket Emphasis on food safety and standards
  • 27. Value chain development means: Taking the market and/or development of the market as starting point Cooperation and coordination among actors in the chain to increase added value and quality Taking sustainability as a condition for development Adopting an integral approach when developing the chain Taking as starting point the development stage at local level
  • 28. Value chain development – Issues and options (1) Issues: Distribution of added value in the chain Lack of coordination, cooperation in the chain Low efficiency-reduction of transaction costs Input and service provision to farmers Options Improve the organisational level of actors Develop better linkages among actors in the chain Improvement of milk collection systems
  • 29. Dairy Trends- Market Increase in scale of production and processing Value Chain Development More value out of milk, Vertical integration: from farm to supermarket Emphasis on food safety and consumer
  • 30. Total Chain Quality Management and Chain approach Consumer Suppliers Authorities Retail Farmers Collection Dairy Distribution industry
  • 31. Control of quality of raw milk and dairy products
  • 32. Food safety – Issues and options (2) Issues: Improvement of raw milk quality and quality control at different stages in the chain Options: Quality based payment systems Improvement of farm management and advise/services to farmers Self regulation of quality control with supervision of government
  • 33. Content of the presentation Introduction Some characteristics dairy production in SE Asia World wide drivers and trends and their implications for South East Asia Conclusions
  • 34. Which approach to take for development? Lessons learnt from other countries/ experiences indicate: Dairy development needs an integrated approach For example: a value chain approach Possible options for development should take into account the local context Stepwise development is more sustainable
  • 35. Conclusion Dairy development with a value chain perspective opens opportunities to address issues in an integrated way Development of a value chain approach will lead to more cooperation, quality improvement and added value A value chain approach could lead to better inclusion of small holders in modern chains Dairy production in SE Asia will have a future BUT requires more competitive and sustainable milk production and a good enabling environment
  • 36. Thank you for your attention