Seaports & Port Cities in southern Africa: the economic benefits and landslide challenges of increased port activity

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Railways and Harbours

Presented by: Prof Trevor Jones at the 2009 Railways and Harbours Conference in Cape Town.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS: SOME THOUGHTS ON CONSEQUENCES FOR SEA TRANSPORT MARKETS AND THE SOUTH AFRICAN PORTS SECTOR

Outline & way forward ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Maritime Transport Industry in 2008 A “once in a lifetime” year for the international maritime transport industry (Martin Stopford/Clarksons) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

… .but from Q3, 2008 onwards … the “perfect boom” became a dizzying downward spiral in most major market segments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Rates outlook? No sustained recovery around the corner – the supply “tortoise” outpacing the demand “hare” DEMAND prospects for 2009: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

SUPPLY outlook fairly devastating ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

… and the size of the global order book suggests that a recovery of freight rates is not around the corner Dec 2008 July 2007 Jan 2006 Jan 2003 49.3 39.6 25.0 14.2 Order book as % of global fleet 1171.0 1049.5 944.5 816.4 Total World Fleet 576.9 415.8 235.9 116.2 Total on order 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 Passenger 13.7 16.3 8.9 4.4 General cargo 77.6 68.4 52.5 14.2 Container 293.6 152.4 68.4 30.2 Bulk carriers 191.1 178.0 105.5 67.0 Tankers Order book (million dwt) Vessel type

What prospects for freight rates? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

South African Ports Two major drivers of port activity, and SA a substantial seaborne trading nation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Containerised sea trade activity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

South African containerised sea trade elasticities: 2004-2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],2.32 1.57 2.53 2.90 1.84 Container trade elasticity coefficients 2.2% 5.1% 5.3% 5.0% 4.9% Annual growth real GDP 2 5.1% 8.0% 13.4% 14.5% 9.0% Annual growth TEU volumes 3900319 3712090 3416780 3014236 2632771 Container traffic (TEU) 1 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

S A seaborne trade outlook – wildly speculative ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Possibly better news in the major bulks… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],LONG-HAUL versus SHORT-HAUL TRADES – a hypothetical example of Polish and South African sized coal

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Short-term outlook generally quite bleak, but not blanket gloom

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1. THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS: SOME THOUGHTS ON CONSEQUENCES FOR SEA TRANSPORT MARKETS AND THE SOUTH AFRICAN PORTS SECTOR

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8. … and the size of the global order book suggests that a recovery of freight rates is not around the corner Dec 2008 July 2007 Jan 2006 Jan 2003 49.3 39.6 25.0 14.2 Order book as % of global fleet 1171.0 1049.5 944.5 816.4 Total World Fleet 576.9 415.8 235.9 116.2 Total on order 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 Passenger 13.7 16.3 8.9 4.4 General cargo 77.6 68.4 52.5 14.2 Container 293.6 152.4 68.4 30.2 Bulk carriers 191.1 178.0 105.5 67.0 Tankers Order book (million dwt) Vessel type

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18. Short-term outlook generally quite bleak, but not blanket gloom