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Shifting Demographics and Housing Choice

Residential Movement in the Greater
       Washington DC Area

          Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD
           George Mason University
            School of Public Policy
          Center for Regional Analysis


                 May 18, 2012
Movement Into and Out of the
                     Washington DC Metro Area
 120,000

  110,000

 100,000

   90,000
                                                                                                                                                             In
                                                                                                                                                             Out
   80,000

   70,000

   60,000
                                                    1996
                 1991
                        1992
                               1993
                                      1994
                                             1995


                                                           1997
                                                                  1998
                                                                         1999
                                                                                2000
                                                                                       2001
                                                                                              2002
                                                                                                     2003
                                                                                                            2004
                                                                                                                   2005
                                                                                                                          2006
                                                                                                                                 2007
                                                                                                                                        2008
                                                                                                                                               2009
                                                                                                                                                      2010
Source: IRS County-to-County Migration Files
Age Distribution of Movers into the
                  Washington DC Metro Area
                                    Age of Household Head
          45
          40                    38.437.7
                                                                                            1995-2000
          35
                                                                                            2008-2010
          30                                     27.4
Percent




          25
                                                      21.3
          20
                     15.5
          15                                                      13.8 14.2
                11.6
          10                                                                              7.2
                                                                                   4.9            3.9 4.2
          5
          0
                 18-24            25-34           35-44            45-54           55-64        65 or older
      Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
Age Distribution of Movers into the
                  Washington DC Metro Area
                                    Age of Household Head
          45
          40                    38.437.7
                                                                                            1995-2000
          35
                                                                                            2008-2010
          30                                     27.4
Percent




          25
                                                      21.3
          20
                     15.5
          15                                                      13.8 14.2
                11.6
          10                                                                              7.2
                                                                                   4.9            3.9 4.2
          5
          0
                 18-24            25-34           35-44            45-54           55-64        65 or older
      Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
Housing Tenure of Movers into the
                  Washington DC Metro Area
          90
                                                                                          80.6
          80
                                   1995-2000
          70                                                                 63.9
                                   2008-2010
          60
Percent




          50
          40                36.1

          30
                                          19.5
          20
          10
          0
                                 Owner                                              Renter
      Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
Housing Tenure of Movers into the
                     Washington DC Metro Area
                         25-to-34 year olds
          100
                                                                                              88.2
           90
                                       1995-2000
           80                                                                    73.1
                                       2008-2010
           70
           60
Percent




           50
           40
           30                   26.9

           20
                                              11.8
           10
             0
                                     Owner                                              Renter
          Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
Location of Movers into the Washington
                      DC Metro Area
          40
                                                                     37.0 37.6            37.0
          35
                                                                                                 31.9
                                   1995-2000
          30
                                   2008-2010
          25
Percent




          20
                          15.8
                                                   14.7
          15       13.6                    12.5

          10

          5

          0
                        DC             Arlington/Alexandria     Fairfax/Montgomery          Other


      Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
Location of Movers into the Washington
                      DC Metro Area
                                    25-to-34 year olds
          40                                                                37.9
                                                                     35.0
          35                                                                              33.1
                                   1995-2000
          30
                                   2008-2010                                                     26.0
          25
Percent




          20              18.7
                   16.4                            17.4
                                           15.5
          15

          10

          5

          0
                        DC             Arlington/Alexandria     Fairfax/Montgomery          Other


      Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
Housing Type of Movers into the
                   Washington DC Metro Area
          70
                                                                                                 59.4
          60
                                    1995-2000                                             51.0
          50
                                    2008-2010
Percent




          40
                      30.3
          30
                                23.6
          20                                           17.7      16.5

          10

          0
                           SFD                                SFA                         Multi-Family


      Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
Housing Type of Movers into the
                   Washington DC Metro Area
                                    25-to-34 year olds
          80

          70                                                                                     67.3

                                   1995-2000                                              60.7
          60
                                   2008-2010
          50
Percent




          40

          30
                      20.3                             18.2
          20                    15.7                             16.5

          10

          0
                           SFD                                SFA                         Multi-Family


      Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
Housing Demand in the Washington DC
            Metro Area

• Increasing demand among newcomers for:
  – Homes close to existing and growing job
    centers
  – Urban living
  – Smaller houses
  – Multi-family and rental units
George Mason University
Center for Regional Analysis

       cra.gmu.edu

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Residential Movement in the Greater Washington DC Area

  • 1. Shifting Demographics and Housing Choice Residential Movement in the Greater Washington DC Area Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD George Mason University School of Public Policy Center for Regional Analysis May 18, 2012
  • 2. Movement Into and Out of the Washington DC Metro Area 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 In Out 80,000 70,000 60,000 1996 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: IRS County-to-County Migration Files
  • 3. Age Distribution of Movers into the Washington DC Metro Area Age of Household Head 45 40 38.437.7 1995-2000 35 2008-2010 30 27.4 Percent 25 21.3 20 15.5 15 13.8 14.2 11.6 10 7.2 4.9 3.9 4.2 5 0 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 or older Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
  • 4. Age Distribution of Movers into the Washington DC Metro Area Age of Household Head 45 40 38.437.7 1995-2000 35 2008-2010 30 27.4 Percent 25 21.3 20 15.5 15 13.8 14.2 11.6 10 7.2 4.9 3.9 4.2 5 0 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 or older Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
  • 5. Housing Tenure of Movers into the Washington DC Metro Area 90 80.6 80 1995-2000 70 63.9 2008-2010 60 Percent 50 40 36.1 30 19.5 20 10 0 Owner Renter Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
  • 6. Housing Tenure of Movers into the Washington DC Metro Area 25-to-34 year olds 100 88.2 90 1995-2000 80 73.1 2008-2010 70 60 Percent 50 40 30 26.9 20 11.8 10 0 Owner Renter Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
  • 7. Location of Movers into the Washington DC Metro Area 40 37.0 37.6 37.0 35 31.9 1995-2000 30 2008-2010 25 Percent 20 15.8 14.7 15 13.6 12.5 10 5 0 DC Arlington/Alexandria Fairfax/Montgomery Other Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
  • 8. Location of Movers into the Washington DC Metro Area 25-to-34 year olds 40 37.9 35.0 35 33.1 1995-2000 30 2008-2010 26.0 25 Percent 20 18.7 16.4 17.4 15.5 15 10 5 0 DC Arlington/Alexandria Fairfax/Montgomery Other Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
  • 9. Housing Type of Movers into the Washington DC Metro Area 70 59.4 60 1995-2000 51.0 50 2008-2010 Percent 40 30.3 30 23.6 20 17.7 16.5 10 0 SFD SFA Multi-Family Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
  • 10. Housing Type of Movers into the Washington DC Metro Area 25-to-34 year olds 80 70 67.3 1995-2000 60.7 60 2008-2010 50 Percent 40 30 20.3 18.2 20 15.7 16.5 10 0 SFD SFA Multi-Family Source: 2000 Census PUMS file; 2008-10 American Community Survey 3-Year PUMS file
  • 11. Housing Demand in the Washington DC Metro Area • Increasing demand among newcomers for: – Homes close to existing and growing job centers – Urban living – Smaller houses – Multi-family and rental units
  • 12. George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu