Global status of maize production Status of global maize trade Dynamics of maize production in India Favorable environment for maize Challenges to the maize sector Solutions to address the challenges

1. India Maize Summit 2015
Session Theme: Outlook and riding the demand wave
1
P K Joshi
International Food Policy Research Institute
9-10 April 2015

2. Outline
1. Global status of maize production
2. Status of global maize trade
3. Dynamics of maize production in India
4. Favorable environment for maize
5. Challenges to the maize sector
6. Solutions to address the challenges
2

3. Current Status
• Maize sector has transformed rapidly
– Production and yield levels increased significantly
• Production from 615 mt in 2001 to 1018 mt in 2013
• Yield levels from 4.5 t/ha to 5.5 t/ha
– Significant outscaling of innovations
• Single cross hybrid, quality protein maize, GM maize,
conservation agriculture, farm mechanization, transplanted
maize winter & spring maize, baby corn, sweet corn, etc
• Unlike rice and wheat innovation was led by private sector
– Diversified use of maize
• Food to feed, biofuel, edible oil, breakfast food
3

4. Global production of maize (m tons)
Americas
(2.4%)
Asia (3.7%)
East Asia
(3.5%)
Europe (1.2%)
CAGR
Source: FAOSTAT 2015
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
World Americas Asia East-Asia South & South-East Asia Europe
World (2.6%)
Americas (2.4%)
Asia (3.7%)
East Asia (3.5%)
Europe (1.2%)
South & South-East Asia (4.0%)
CAGR

5. Spatial distribution of maize production
• More than half of
world’s maize is
produced in USA (35%)
and China (22%)
– Other top 5 maize
producing countries:
Brazil (8%), Argentina
(3.2%), Ukraine (3%), India
(2.3%) and Mexico (2.2%)
• Maize yields have
significantly increased in
all the countries
5
USA
35%
China
22%
Brazil
8%
Argentina
3%
Ukraine
3%
India
2%
Mexico
2%
Others
25%

6. Yields of the major maize producing countries (t/ha)
7.4
4.5
1.9
3.5
2.5
1.5
2.0
2.4
3.7
8.6
4.6
2.7
5.4
3.0
1.8
2.5
2.8
4.3
10.0
6.0
5.3
6.6 6.4
2.5
3.2
3.6
5.5
USA CHINA BRAZIL ARGENTINA UKRAINE INDIA MEXICO OTHERS WORLD
1990 2000 2013
Source: FAOSTAT 2015

7. Major exporters and importers and their share in
production (%)
• Global maize trade
increased from 82 mt in
2000 to 125 mt in 2013
• Significant spatial shifts in
exports
> 80% export in 2000
– USA (58%), Argentina (13%) and
France (10%)
> 80% export in 2013
– Brazil (27%), USA (24%), Argentina
(20%), Ukraine (17%) and France
(6%)
• Imports
>40% of imports by Egypt (16%),
Japan (14%), S Korea (9%),
Mexico (7%), and Spain (6%)
Country 2000 2013
Argentina 65 63
Ukraine 4 54
France 50 42
Brazil 0 33
USA 19 7
7

8. Significance for the industry:
Global changing pattern of maize utilization
8
Food
14%
Food
processin
g
5%
Feed
55%
Seed
1%
Waste
4%
Other Uses
21%
WORLD 2011
Food
15%
Food
processing
6%
Feed
67%
Seed
1%
Waste
4%
Other Uses
7%
WORLD 2001

9. Significance for the industry:
Changing utilization pattern of maize in USA
Food
1%
Food
processing
8%
Feed
42%
Seed
0%
Waste
0%
Other Uses
49%
USA 2011
Food
2% Food
processing
11%
Feed
74%
Seed
0%
Waste
0%
Other Uses
13%
USA 2001

10. Significance for the Indian maize industry
Utilization of maize during 2014
Food
16%
Poultry Feed
52%
Livestock Feed
11%
Starch/ethanol
19%
Seed
1%
Food processing
1%

11. Dynamics production of maize in India
• Traditional maize growing states
– Subsistence, low hybrids adoption, low yields (< 2 t/ha)
• Non-traditional maize growing states
– Commercial, 100% hybrids, high yields (3.5-4.5 t/ha)
• Bihar demonstrated revolution in maize production
– Yields went up from 1.5 t/ha in 1990-91 to 3.6 t/ha in
2012-13
– Shift from monsoon season to winter and spring
– Adoption of hybrids is more in spring and winter
• Favorable environment
– Seed sector, MSP, Poultry industry, alternative uses
11

12. Impact of hybrid on yield of maize (TE 1952-53 to TE 2012-13)
12

13. MSP of maize and other commodities (Rs/Q)
Commodity MSP growth
rate (%)
(2005-15)
Maize 143
Paddy 139
Wheat 115
Barley 100
540 540
620
840 840
880
980
1175
1310 1310
MSP of Maize (Rs/Qtl)

14. Global maize prices (US$/million ton) at constant US$ 2010 prices Vs
WPI
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Global maize prices (US$/million ton)
WPI(2004=100)100)
GlobalMaizePrices(US$/Million
Ton)

15. Significance of maize for poultry industry in India
Maize and egg production
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
EGGPRODUCTION(BILLIONNUMBER)
MAIZEPRODUCTION(MILLIONTONS)
Maize production (million tons)
Egg production
Maize production

16. Challenges faced by the industry
• Risk of climate change threat
– 15% expected loss in production by 2080
– High risk during rainy season (largely rainfed)
• Smallholder agriculture
– Quality, scale and aggregation
– Long value chain
• Inefficient and aflatoxin contamination
• Low competitiveness in the global market
• Poor extension (source of information)
16

17. Threat to maize sector:
Price competitiveness of Indian maize (USD/t)
Year Argentina USA India
2010-11 285 - 290 290 - 295 235 - 140
2011-12 270 - 275 295 - 300 NA
2012-13 240 - 245 260 - 265 230 - 235
2013-14 195 - 200 190 - 195 225 - 230
2014-15 NA 170 - 175 215 - 220
17

18. Solutions to address challenges
• Growing global demand for multiple purposes
– R&D investment to focus research to improve
efficiency
– Identify niche products and niche markets for
export
• Improve competitiveness by growing hybrids
– GMOs may also reduce costs
• Strengthen backend support system
• Improve value chain and financing value chains
• Insurance products to face risks and adoption
of hybrids and improved technologies
18

19. Thank You
19
Photo source: anithamexportsandimports.in;
washington.edu