Media futurist The WSJ calls Futurist, Author and CEO of The Futures Agency Gerd Leonhard "one of the leading media-futurists in the world". Gerd is considered a thought-leader and global influencer in the media / content, technology, marketing & communications, telecom, and cultural industries, with a client list that includes many leading global companies. He delivers provocative yet inspiring presentations with "great balance of content covering innovations that are already upon us versus those that are still hypothetical" [client quote]. Gerd is also an author, a strategic adviser, and a fellow of the Royal Society for the Arts (London). Since 2011, Gerd's area of expertise also includes important "green" topics. He lives in Basel, Switzerland, and on the airplane. Talk: “The future of business: the next 5 years in technology, commerce, media and humanity - disruptions and opportunities" addressing issues such as: Marketing is going to be completely reset as advertising becomes at least 50% digital, and interruption becomes engagement. What will this mean for your business, and how will you reach more people in better ways at lower cost? What is the future role of social media in this context, and… video? Europe, and Spain, is at an interesting position between the former US power-house and the exploding BRIC / EMEA / CIVET world - how can you take advantage of that? Where is this going? Total digitisation everywhere (social-local-mobile default) will lead to increased efficiency everywhere which in turn leads to increased ‘digital darwinism’ i.e. the pressure to provide better services and products at ever-decreasing prices - incumbents must quickly create added values to prosper (some ideas) Innovation is changing radically as much increased speed forces companies to allow more for internal invocation and the creation of foresights as well as open up to the outside world (crowdsourcing etc) Technology will be advancing in radically exponential ways impacting every market sector in terms of big data, artificial intelligence, ultrasmart software agents, automation and the complete role change in job descriptions and what people do within an organisation Sustainable will become the new profitable - and in every sector of society (discussion of the circular economy and what is called sustainable capitalism) - get ready now It is very likely that any given business will derive up to 50% of their 2025 revenues from new revenue stream that don’t not even exist today -so what does that mean for transformation, and innovation, and leadership?

1. Essentiel Foresights:
Our Digital World by 2020
Please go to pollev.com/futuristgerd
@gleonhard
FuturistGerd.com

6. “Logic proves, intuition discovers” Henri Poincare

7. “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the
turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”
*Peter Drucker

8. “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the
turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”
*Peter Drucker

10. We need both foresight and focus
We are going 300 km/h but are
looking mostly in the rearview-mirror…

13. HellVen

14. Technology’s duality
HellVen is a default fact now
Hyper-efficiency is in overdrive
Culture clash of HOW versus WHY

15. Yes, technology can do almost everything, soon.
But should it?

16. “It will become increasingly hard to define
whether a new technology is an overall good
thing or not; and the question will no longer
be whether technology can do something but
whether it should be done” (Gerd)

17. Technology has not ethics but a human society -
and its businesses and industries - depend on it
Melvin Kranzberg “Technology is neither good nor evil.
The most we can say about it is this: It has come.”

19. Exponentiality

21. 1 2 4 8 16 32 64…
“How does a person go broke?
Gradually, then suddenly”
Ernest Hemingway

23. Increasing
Scarcity
inside
Increasing
Abundance
outside

24. Technology is causing exponential societal changes
‘Wait and see’ really means ‘watch me die’
Foresight & imagination becomes critical
Most innovation will ‘not be invented Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
here’

26. Clip via IBM / Youtube

29. Tesla: the first truly exponential car company?
Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

30. Tesla’s reverse approach to what used to be ‘normal’
Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

31. Digitization and
Automation

32. The automation of everything?

33. The automation of jobs: huge changes are imminent
Live demo of Quartz interactive graphic

34. The automation of jobs: huge changes are imminent
ON YOUTUBE:

35. Google Now is only the very tip of the AI iceberg: automation,
real-time data, inter-connectivity, technology in the background,
NUIs / voice / gesture control, intelligent digital assistants…
Google Now via Youtube

36. Digitization changes everyone/thing -
Business models collapse or reboot
Toxic assumptions must be discarded
Consumer empowerment is dramatic,
contagious, non-negotiable…cruel…?
‘Trying to fax a cat’ is deadly (music!)

37. “You ain’t see nothing yet” - Exponential changes are ahead
http://frankdiana.wordpress.com/2014/04/03/the-smart-home/

38. What happened to media will happen to all
digitally contestable businesses: hyper-efficiency

39. Previously closed, walled or protected businesses
are being cracked open by software innovators

40. Data becomes a key economic driver, globally
Human jobs will focus on human-only capabilities
Huge boom in software, AI, interfaces

41. Big Data
Big Brother
Privacy

42. Data drives our future (literally)
Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

43. Data really is the new Oil:)
Data economy will be regulated just like oil and fossil fuels *
Expect a constant back and forth of public, collective common
values versus private and individual values
Global data standards are sorely needed (and already emergent!)

44. Data is the new oil, broadband and software are
the pipelines, mobile devices are the gas-stations
Should ‘big data’ be regulated just like ‘big oil’?
Video via IBM on IoT (Youtube)

45. “Technology is not
really about
hardware and
software any more.
It’s really about the
mining and use of
this enormous data to
make the world a
better place”
!
Eric Schmidt, Google’s executive chairman, told an audience
of MIT students

46. “Big business decisions will be made not be experts or
intuition but by big data and predictive analytics”
Virginia Rometty, CEO and chairwoman of IBM http://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/digital-living/9549067/To-2014-and-Beyond

47. ‘Code
Halos’

48. Inevitable?

49. “All that happens must be known”
Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
- Dave Eggers
http://flic.kr/p/97PVQi!

50. Ignorance is dangerous, but so is
the obsession with omniscience

51. Expect increasing backlash against ‘over-connectivity’
Significant ‘trust pressure’ on US-based ‘big internet’ co’s
Splinternets / Spyinternets could thwart purpose of ‘Net

52. Consumers are finally starting to feel the heat…
Secure, private, safe offerings will do exceedingly well
Hereto trusted ‘internet darlings’ may become the next
(*old) Microsoft i.e. ubiquitous but very much un-liked
‘I’ll do anything to get free & convenient services’ is over

53. Expect more ‘Datawars’
Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

54. Beware: technology works both ways…

55. “Search engines won’t wait for you to ask
for information. They will know you like a
friend, aware of your concerns and
interests at a detailed level” Ray Kurzweil

56. Total digitization, ubiquitous connectivity, machine
intelligence and ‘very very big data’ will require new
norms, rules and markets - and new social contracts

57. 100
75
50
25
0
The coming balancing act
Power of Technology Privacy & Anonymity
B4 Internet 1st digital wave Now Tomorrow?

58. Key challenges: security, standards, ethics,
new social contracts, finding consensus
Photo by 900hp - http://flic.kr/p/9MTJpf

60. Human-Machine
Futures
AI & Robots

61. Our mobile devices: predictive. realtime. contextual. intelligent

62. Increasing outsourcing of ‘thinking’ to
software, apps, devices, platforms
Deep-AI emerges as key dystopian theme
Humanness will matter increasingly… IF….

63. “Machines are for answers, humans are for questions”
(Kevin Kelly)
http://www.flickr.com/photos/bobsfever/
7034556759/in/photostream/
Dramatic shifts in HR, work, jobs
Complete re-set of corporate structures (silos)

64. A whole new industry emerges
Technological unemployment
Huge impact on education

65. The interface / UI revolution has barely started
Voice control will replace typing
Automated language translation
is going mainstream

66. Ambient Information & Predictive Services
where is this going?

67. Yes, technology can do almost everything, soon.
But should it?

69. Machine Thinking
Business is not a machine (neither are
business people)
Buying decisions are not really rational
Most big data is rather dumb when it
comes to actual human relevance

70. Increased magnitude of unintended consequences

71. Just imagine…

72. Jobs and Work

73. The robots are coming, for sure

74. Global changes to work, jobs and employment
Less people needed, across the board
Many new jobs about to be invented
Sooner or later, end of ‘working for a living’
Redefinition of capitalism (a minor challenge)

76. Business Intelligence (BI):
going warp-drive via smart software
10 good people + software and AI will do the
work of 100 people just a few years ago
‘Data hubris’ becomes a major problem
(‘machine thinking’ will prove deadly)
It’s less and less about mere analysis and more
aboit sense-making and data-fueled intuition

78. The future of jobs, work and education:
the return of human-only skills
Subjective reasoning
Imagination
Negotiation
Questioning
Empathising
Storytelling
Connecting
Creativity
Design

79. According to a Sept 2013 Oxford study, occupations that
involve http://www.complex flickr.com/perception photos/and bobsfever/
manipulation tasks,
creative 7034556759/intelligence in/tasks, photostream/
and social intelligence tasks
are unlikely http://to www.be flickr.substituted com/photos/by 7468552@computer N08/capital 4044554793
over the
next decade or two. So the key to defeating robots - in the
movies and in real life - is doing what they can't.
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
http://www.entrepreneur.com/

80. “Currently, education is mostly
about preparing people for life
in a 20th century factory”

81. The Global Brain
or.. Drain?

82. Will social
media, hyper-connectivity,
cheap devices,
big data & AI,
wearables and
the ‘Internet of
Things’ create
a kind of
Global Brain?
Seriously increased velocity
Hyper-collaboration is default
Outliers increasingly use
‘backdoors’ to disrupt incumbents

83. (Almost) anyone from anywhere could
be your next biggest competitor
BRIC / CIVETS etc will take the lead

84. Possible? Desirable?

86. Transformation

87. An era of rapid Digital Transformation

88. How many components of your business are digitally contestable ?

89. “How does a person go broke?
Gradually, then suddenly”
Ernest Hemingway

90. 10x the ‘human Internet’ - are you ready?

91. “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the
turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”
*Peter Drucker

92. The coming
Sustainability
Default

93. RSRC: Responsible Sustainable Regenerative Circular

94. Stock-market logic will soon re-boot to actually reward
sustainable, renewable, responsible businesses (3BL)
Technology will continue to make giant leaps in efficiency
Renewable energy, food and water will become the biggest
business opportunities ever (‘green business’ revolution)

95. Heading towards a circular economy

96. Communications
Media
Marketing
Advertising

97. “Software is eating the world” (Marc Andreessen)
Inevitable transfer of value from traditional companies to software companies

98. Films, TV, Music, Print: from Unit
Economy to Access Economy

99. First, content & entertainment, then everything else
Broadcast
Cable &
Satellite
Cloud
(+ social
+ mobile)
Cloud computing is the next mobile (irresistible)
Data MYning becomes a key trend (user control)
Cloud-readiness is a major driver of success

100. Social Media-Telecom-eCommerce-
Broadcasters
Facebook is paying more than double its annual revenue for a chat
program that has little revenue. The purchase price is slightly more than
the market value of Sony Corp. "Facebook is the leading global social-sharing
utility. Now, it has a significant opportunity to be the leading
global communications utility," RBC Capital Markets said in a note.

101. Ubiquitous low-cost connectivity will bring…
Even more market fragmentation
Less mass-markets, more hits in niches
Brands can increasingly ‘go direct’
Big Data moves centre-stage
Privacy is major concern #datawars
Digital hyper-efficiency everywhere
Digitally-native disruption abounds

102. Media pre SoLoMo: provide mousetraps for advertisers
Photo by iamos - http://flic.kr/p/5uUFSo

103. Global Paradigm Shift in Marketing | Advertising | Public Relations | Branding

104. Surveillance-based advertising is killing the golden goose
Re-invention of $1 Trillion industry
Era of ‘free at all cost’ is ending

105. Total customer empowerment. Dialog. Conversation.
Increasing transparency (hopefully not a ‘tyranny’)
End of silos in and outside of organisations
Everything is CRM (marketing IS the product)

106. Reason to Buy - not Force to Buy

107. “We give the greatest subjective value
to things that are relatively scarce”
(Ronald Inglehart)

108. Increasing
Scarcity
inside
Increasing
Abundance
outside

109. Offline Luxury

110. Being in the moment…
Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
http://www.slideshare.net/oscaruro/jobs-of-the-future-31332319?qid=0d12d81d-3ed7-421d-8ff2-3356be128bdd&v=default&b=&from_search=8

111. ‘Offline’ will be the new luxury
This is not a yes or no issue, but an ‘it depends’ issue
‘Addictive substances’ will and should be regulated
New social contracts will emerge i.e. ‘digital ethics’

112. FOMO …not sustainable

113. Quantified self or… qualified slave?

114. Is ‘seeing everything’ really desirable?
Most of the value creation passes from us to the platforms that we empower

115. Offline luxury is probably un-desired
in a global Data and AI-driven world
Hyper-convenience is truly addictive

116. Business Models

117. Connectivity, most information and content as well as many
digital goods become like water, electric power or… air
Capitalism will become circular ie ‘renewable’
Value must be build around the core, all the time
‘New Generatives’ as well as new metrics required

118. The ‘sharing economy’ is real but beware
of ‘Jerk-Tech’ and Data-Hubris
http://diamandis.abundancehub.com/

119. “I love Uber, the ridesharing app that connects people who need rides with drivers. Instead of my normal $35
taxi ride to LAX, an UberX car takes me for about $11. Uber is one of a new generation of dematerializing,
demonetizing and democratizing technologies that's disrupting the status quo” Peter Diamantis

120. ‘Beyond the Pills’ (just add your own product type here)
Novartis CEO Jimenez: “I really believe that in the future, companies like Novartis are going to be paid
on patient outcomes as opposed to selling the pills” Pharmas are looking to move to a range of value-added
services under the moniker beyond-the-pill – and most of those new services are digital.
“Beyond-the-pill is a logical and inevitable path forward for all”
Creating value by embedding products into a holistic offering with the aim to improve patient
outcomes and provide tangible competitive advantages.”
Such holistic offerings include telehealth services, wellness programs, and improved chronic
disease management over patients’ lifetimes.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbloomberg/2014/08/15/digital-transformation-moves-pharma-beyond-the-pill/

121. Ethics
in a digital world
Some digital heresy

122. Technology has not ethics but a human society -
and its businesses and industries depend on it
Melvin Kranzberg: “Technology is neither good nor evil.
The most we can say about it is this: It has come.”

123. Businesses must become extremely data-smart & technologically super-intelligent
- and even more extremely human
In a recent lecture at Harvard University neuroscientist Jeff Lichtman, who is attempting to
map the human brain, has calculated that several billion petabytes of data storage would be
needed to index the entire human brain. The Internet is currently estimated to be 5 million
terabytes (TB) of which Google has indexed roughly 200 TB or just .004% of its total size.
http://www.industrytap.com/knowledge-doubling-every-12-months-soon-to-be-every-12-hours/3950

124. Digital Obesity. Group-Think. Filter Bubbles.

125. Soon, it will be a lot less about if technology can do
something, but why, who and when it should be done

126. Algorithm☯‘Humarithm’
Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

127. Unintended consequences explode

128. Thanks for your attention!
FuturistGerd.com to download this PDF, later today
Gerdtube.com (YouTube) to find out more
@gleonhard