Global electronic-materials-supply-chain

www.linx-consulting.com
617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
1
Changes Within the Global Electronic Materials
Supply Chain and Challenges for the Future
SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
2
Linx Consulting
1. We create knowledge and develop unique insights at the
intersection of electronic thin film processes and the chemicals
industry
2. We help our clients to succeed through our:
• Experience in global electronics and advanced materials and thin film
processing industries:
• Experience in the global chemicals industry
• Experience at Device Producers
• Experience at OEMs
• Global network and capabilities
• Advanced modeling capabilities
– Semi
– LCD
– Packaging
– PV
– Nano Technology
– Other

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Another Below-trend Year for Global Growth
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
%Change
Forecast
Long-term Trend
World Real GDP Growth
Relative to 2012: slightly weaker in US; mild recession in Eurozone continues;
slightly stronger in Asia, with positive spillovers to other emerging economies

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Q1 2013 Semiconductor Forecast
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
SEMI MSI
Forecast
Shaded areas indicate US recessions
Annual Percent Change
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-17.6 39.7 -3.5 -0.1 5.4 9.6 6.5

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Changing Market Drivers
• Desktop PC market slowed and has matured
• Laptop PC market growing , but at a lower rate
• Chipsets for smartphones and tablets are analogous
• High growth as penetration increases
The Growth of Mobile
Source: Qualcomm, IDC

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Segment Trends

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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The Major Challenges For ICs
3D Packaging
450mm
Gate Architecture
EUV
New Memory

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Long Range Device Mix Forecast
Total 300 and 450mm
wafers
3DPackaging?

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Is Moore’s Law Broken?
• Current process technology
diverges from the historic
cost per bit curve as
multipatterning and process
complexity increase.
• EUV reduces this
divergence by reducing litho
complexity and saving
some patterning cost
• Combining EUV with
450mm allows the cost per
bit to stay on trend.

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Lithography Drivers
• The introduction of Immersion 193nm
scanners was the last major wavelength
improvement
• Off-axis illumination, phase shift masking,
assist features, etc have extended
lithography capability
• Self Aligned Double Patterning, multi-
layer resists, multi-patterning, and source
mask optimization have extended
process capability significantly
• Given current trends EUV may provide a
significant capability increase after 2015
• Indications are that NXE 3300B
shipments will commence in 2013 with
sources enabling 70 wafers per hour at
customers in mid-2014
Difficult
“Easy”

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EUV Wafer Cost Effect
• Cost in $/cm2 for a 300mm
foundry logic process in a
Taiwan foundry.
• First year of implementation
EUV is used for most critical
layers. Beginning year 3 older
EUV systems used in “mix and
match” strategy totally
eliminating all multi-patterning.
• In 2016 added cost of late
implementation could amount
$8.5Bn of 110k w/mo.
Source: Strategic Cost Model - revision 1109

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
300mm Fabs Only
R&D
Other
MPU
Flash
DRAM
ASIC
R&D
Other
MPU
Flash
DRAM
ASIC
Fab Requirement
300mm
R&D = 5k wpm
Other = 25k wpm
Flash = 100k wpm
MPU = 30k wpm
DRAM = 60k wpm
ASIC = 30k wpm
450mm
R&D = 7.5k wpm
Other = 37.5k wpm
Flash = 150k wpm
MPU = 45k wpm
DRAM = 90k wpm
ASIC = 45k wpm
Source: 300 & 450mm Forecast Model 1201
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
300mm and 450mm
R&D
Other
MPU
Flash
DRAM
ASIC
R&D
Other
MPU
Flash
DRAM
ASIC
Series13

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Electronic Materials, 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100%
% total electronic materials
% total category ($Bn)
Semi
Photomasks
CSP
Spec. gases
Bulk gases
Deposition
CMP
PR ancillaries
Photoresist
Wafers
LCD
Other
Liquid crystals
LMF
Chemicals
Metalization
Resists
Gases
Substrates
Packaging
Gases & Chems
Die attach & underfill
Encapsulants
Ceramic package
Plastic Subs.
Frames & Wires
PCB
Substrates
Patterning
Metalization
Chems &
Gases
Solders
Other
Electrolytes
Cathodes/anodes
Solar
Wafers
Metals
Saw wire
Slurry
Pastes
Chemicals
Gases
Encapsulants
Backsheets
Glass substrates
Packaging
Other
Gases
Dep.
Substrates
Total = 122.8
Adv Batt
Separators
Compound/LED

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Electronic Segment Drivers
Device Segment Semi FPD PV HBLED
Driver • Memory
requirements
• BOPS
• Portable
electronics
• Human
interface
• Touch panel
• Viewing angle
• Environmental
• Lower cost / Wp
• Environmental
• Lower cost per lumen
Key technologies • Lithography
• MGuFET
• Novel Materials
• PCRAM /
RRAM / CT
• IPS
• PVA
• MVA
• Materials
• Processes
• Designs
• Cost
• MOCVD for nitride film
growth
• Phosphors
• Encapsulants
• Thermal management
Materials Segment Commodities Specialties
Driver • Large volume
• Consistency
• Cost
• Low volume
• High service requirements
• Proprietary products
• not easily substituted
• Purchased for performance
• Profit margins are higher
Key technologies • High volume manufacturing • Proprietary formulations
• Synthesis
• Applications expertise

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Materials Intensity by Market
$300Bn$Bn Semiconductors has the lowest
materials intensity, but requires
a high R&D input in
comparison to comparable
electronic device segments.
Materials requirements
includes substrates, and
packaging materials.

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Growing Importance of Process Materials

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Semiconductor Material Demand
• Process complexity is driving higher
growth in materials demand than
the wafer start growth
– The BOM component of
semiconductor sales will
increase over the next 5 years
• Photoresist and Ancillaries will
show segment growth of
15%, higher than other major
segments, and higher than the
wafer start growth.
• Vapor deposition will continue to
displace physical deposition, driving
growth of ALD and CVD materials.

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Industry Structure, 2014
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
>1 1 0.8 0.5 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.13 0.045 0.032
0.09
0.065
DRAM
NAND
NOR
Adv Logic
Logic
Analog
Discrete
Notes:
1. Bottom axis is on a percentage basis
2. Size of box is proportional to # wafer starts
3. Source: Semico and Linx estimates
The new “Silicon Valley”
Business model changes required / desirable?
Materials innovations required
WSPY, K
Broadband
i-line
248nm
193/193i

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Litho Roadmap - NAND

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300mm Production
US Europe S’Pore China Taiwan
Korea Japan
Memory Foundry Logic
Where are the Materials Suppliers?

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Little Consolidation in Chemicals
However, the equipment
producers have begun a recent
round of consolidation with:
• Applied Materials acquiring
Semitool and Varian
• Tokyo Electron acquiring
Nexx Systems and Oerlikon
• Lam Research acquiring
Novellus
Many indications are that this may
be to align each companies’
portfolio for through silicon via
(TSV)
Herfindahl Index example in
CMP slurries. There has
been little consolidation in
the supply of electronic
chemicals.
Consolidation is
happening at the end
user level in semi and
LCD
• Micron will likely
acquire Elpida
• Formation of Japan
Display – Sony,
Toshiba, Hitachi in
FPD
Electronic Chemicals Fab Equipment Device Producers

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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The Quality Journey
• Quality Improvement
– Increasing number of metals and elements in CofA
• 8 to 24
– Increased Sensitivity
• ppm -> ppb -> ppt
• Inorganic chemicals regularly specified at ppt levels
– Function specifications becoming more specific
• Resolution, DOF EL, line collapse, profile, adhesion, footing, toploss, LER, LWR
• Selective etch rates
• Polish rates, defectivity, dishing
• Service Improvement
– Beyond SPC
– Ship to stock qualification
• Sub-Supplier Monitoring
– Materials component supply analysis
– Materials fingerprinting

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Advanced Materials
Learning/Characterization
• Well controlled manufacturing
at the supplier leads to product
qualification
• Changed process at the sub-
supplier changes end product
performance
• Process audit located the
change, and was rectified at
cost of time and product
Sourcing
Reaction
Purification
Packaging
Shipping
Receiving
Reaction
Formulation
Purification
Application Test
QC
Distillation
Shipping
QC
SupplierSub
Supplier
Sub
Supplier
Purification
• Sub-supplier process mapping
during product development
• Beyond CofA material
fingerprinting
• Understand and Control
variation

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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FUTURE TRENDS TO WATCH

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Directed Self Assembly
• DSA represents a possible resolution
extension for ArFi:
– Segregating Block Co-polymers
form reduced pitch alternating
polymer films with selective etch
properties.
– Pattern transfer follows
traditional routes.
• DSA is being pursued by multiple
companies.
• DSA can be implemented with
optical, e-beam, imprint or EUV
exposure.
• Defect levels remain high, but have
been reduced to levels that indicate
production capability.

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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TSV Scenarios – More Than Moore
Category 2010 - 2015 2016 - 2020 2021 - 2025
DRAM
LOGIC
NAND
Source: HMCC
MemoryCube
Stacked
DRAM
HybridCube
Consolidate
address logic
on one
device
SystemCube
Package
system
components
vertically

617.273.8837• 973.698.2331
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Conclusions
• Growth returns in 2013.
• A high upside potential remains in specialty materials for Semiconductors
– This is offset by significant R&D requirements
– HKMG, FinFETs, FDSOI, 3D-NAND and STT-MRAM development programs are
already well advanced, although challenges remain at 22nm and below.
– Now is the time to place bets for the next generation architectures.
• More Moore has significant implications for both equipment and materials suppliers
– 450mm is driven by fab economics, not materials markets. Prepare for
deployment over the next 5 years.
– 450mm will probably slow materials market growth.
• EUV is needed ASAP to mitigate process complexity and keep wafer cost low.
Challenges of source power, and resist performance continue to slow implementation.
• Materials demand grows faster than Semiconductor Unit growth due to process
complexity.
– Patterning, CVD and ALD, and CMP all drive materials demand growth.
• 3D Packaging and TSV processing is a key area for focus over the next 5 years.

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