1. Are We Safe Yet? Homeland Security and Regulatory Analysis Jamie Belcore and Jerry Ellig

7. 13 economically significant regulations $61-190 million 2007 Passenger Manifests $1.36 billion 2007 Chemical Facilities $1.1 billion 2007 Immigration Benefit Application $250 million 2007 Transportation Worker ID Credential $206 million 2006 Travel Documents $206 million 2006 Air Cargo $100 million 2005 Automated Passenger Info. System $125 million 2005 H1-B Visa Allocation Unclear 2005 Community Disaster Loans Unclear 2004 Biometric Data $540 million 2003 Maritime Facility Security $137 million 2003 Vessel Security $47.7 million 2003 Area Maritime Security Annual Cost Year Final Regulation

8. How they scored … 3 2005 Community Disaster Loans 4 2005 H1-B Visa Allocation 5 2006 Air Cargo 5 2003 Area Maritime Security 6 2007 Transportation Worker ID Credential 6 2003 Maritime Facility 6 2003 Vessel Security 8 2007 Immigration Benefit Application 8 2004 Biometric Data 9 2005 Automated Passenger Info. System 10 2007 Chemical Facilities 12 2007 Passenger Manifests 15 2006 Travel Documents Total Score Year Final Regulation

9. Uneven improvement over time

10. Do some agencies do better analysis? 3 FEMA 2005 Community Disaster Loans 4 Citizenship/Immigration 2005 H1-B Visa Allocation 5 TSA 2006 Air Cargo 5 Coast Guard 2003 Area Maritime Security 6 Coast Guard 2007 Transportation Worker ID Credential 6 Coast Guard 2003 Maritime Facility 6 Coast Guard 2003 Vessel Security 8 Citizenship/Immigration 2007 Immigration Benefit Application 8 Border/Transp. Security 2004 Biometric Data 9 Customs & Border Prot. 2005 Automated Passenger Info. System 10 DHS 2007 Chemical Facilities 12 Customs & Border Prot. 2007 Passenger Manifests 15 Customs & Border Prot., State 2006 Travel Documents Total Score Agency Year Final Regulation

11. Average scores by element 6 0.54 Unique Federal Role 7 0.77 Identify Systemic Problem 5 1.15 Analyze Alternatives 1 1.38 Compare Costs & Outcomes 0 1.46 Identify/Measure Outcome 0 2.15 Analyze Costs # of 0’s Avg. Score

12. 5 Cost Analysis: Travel Documents (2006) $104 million maximum Examined forgone opportunities $601-717 million highly likely Included analysis of uncertainty $147-733 million first year cost Included sensitivity analysis 652,000 forego travel Estimated behavioral changes $149 monetary and time cost of obtaining passport Estimated effects on prices $206 million annually Identified most major monetary costs

13. 3 Outcomes: Passenger Manifests Reasons for assumption of 90% effectiveness not explained Acknowledges rule won’t be 100% effective Arbitrary assumption for airlines not using automated query system Coherent theory: automated query prevents issue of boarding pass Safety outcome not measured Avoided costs measured ($10 million annually) Intermediate outcomes; risk reduction not measured 2 outcomes: Keep risky people off planes, and avoid costs of flight delay/diversion Weaknesses Strengths

14. 3 Systemic Problem: Immigration Benefit Application (2007) Takes current costs of activities as given and unchangeable Activity-based costing demonstrates costs of specific services exceed fees Could have presented actual numerical evidence Cites historical experience that increased funding (appropriations) reduces backlogs Does not assess how much of backlog stems from $ shortfall Theorizes insufficient funding causes backlogs Narrow definition of problem presumes rest of policy and operations are optimal Identifies systemic problem: costs exceed fees, leading to processing backlogs Weaknesses Strengths

17. A note on analytical capabilities… 15,900:1 10 159,000 DHS 15:1 70 1,074 FTC 32:1 60 1,926 FCC 44:1 9 400 CPSC 468:1 220 103,000 USDA 500:1 20 10,000 FDA 90:1 200 18,000 EPA Ratio Economists Employees

18. Haste makes waste? 9.17 3.50 Final Rules 6.00 2.86 Interim Final Rules Reg. Analysis Score Transparency Score