China initiated the largest forest conservation programs in the world. Chinese forest policies also contributed to increasing forest/tree cover in Yunnan province, Southwest China. We mapped forest cover in Yunnan, Mekong region using satellite imagery. We reconstructed the forest transition curve through narratives since the Great Leap Forward that started in 1958, as well as data from socioeconomic census since 1990s. Our results suggest that the increase in tree cover at the end of the last century was initiated by government policies that encompass regulative approaches as well as incentive payments for tree planting on sloping land, as well as market-driven plantation economy. Local trajectories of forest cover change hence resulted from a combination of exogenous policy-induced incentive payments and endogenous adaptation of land use strategies to changing market conditions. While policies facilitated the increase of tree cover in Yunnan, the degradation of natural forests often continued unabated. Local differences in factor endowments and the uneven geographic distribution of policy support contributed to considerable variation in the pathways to the forest transition, the shape of the forest transition curve, and the environmental and economic outcomes among villages. A better understanding of these processes is paramount to design incentive schemes that stimulate sustainable land use transitions.

1. Forest Transition in Mekong River Basin:
State-led or Smallholder-driven?
Jianchu XU, Principle Ecologist
World Agroforestry Centre

2. Forest in Mekong Region
(1990-2010)
8 million ha Net forest loss
12.7 million ha Natural forest lost
4.7 million ha Plantation (tree crops)
Source: FAO 2010

3. Existing land cover products for the Mekong River Basin
Global map
products
No regional
specific classes
Less appropriate
for local/basin
scale land cover
analyses
GlobCover 2009 MODIS land cover 2011
Slide 3

4. Definition of physiographic homogenous subregions
Precipitation Land Cover Elevation
WorldClim MODIS Land Cover SRTM DEM
Segmentation
+ +
6 Physiographic
Slide 4
Homogenous Subregions

5. Biophysical Profile

6. I. Tibetan Plateau

7. Tibetan Plateau Ecosystem Changes
2011-2075
• Alpine grasslands 23%---9.5% (decreasing)
• Shrublands 11%---29% (increasing)
Zhao et al. 2011. Reg Environ Change 11(4): 905-915

8. II. Greater-Rivers: Lancang in Yunnan

9. III. Xishuangbanna and Mekong Highland

10. IV. Mekong Lowland

11. V. Intensive Cultivation

12. Tonle Sap Lake
VI. Tonle Sap/Mekong Delta Mekong Delta

13. Mangrove in Mekong Delta
Vo et al., 2013. Remote Sens 5:183-201

15. What drives forest transition?

16. What does global change mean for forest ecosystem?
 Land use/cover change 25~30%
 Climate Change
＋emission
—sequestration
water
temperature
Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

17. What are roles of states?

18. Time Triggers Scenarios
2020 Peri-Urbanization
Urbanization
2010 Climate change mitigation
Secured Forest Rights
2006 Collective Forest Tenure Reform in 2006
2000 Grain for green in 1999 State payment for env.
service
Logging ban in 1998
“Wasteland auction” in 1994 Economic booming,
1990s
env. Degradation &
Forestland Three Fixing in 1982
Emerging forest rights
1980s
Establishing Natural Reserves in 1981
De-collectivization in 1978 Township/village
1970s enterprise
Food Self-Sufficiency
1960s Collective period:
“Great Leap Forward” Food First
1950s
Chinese Policy Narratives

19. Does market drive forest transition?

20. Kunming-Bangkok Highway

21. Transboundary resource flows
• Water
• Fish & wildlife
• Timber
• Energy
• Can be natural, disrupted
or ‘assisted’
– Disruption of fish
migration by hydropower
dams
– Illegal trade in wildlife or
timber
21

22. Forest cover change in China
Great Household
Leap Responsibility Yangtze Goal: Goal:
Forward System Flood 2009 23% 26%
25
20
Turning point in 1981:
12% forest cover Goal reached:
15 20% by 2010
10
1958 1981 1998 2009 2020 2050
Sources: Zhang (1949); Forestry Surveys (1976-2009); Forestry Ministry (2020, 2050)

23. Greater Rivers in NW Yunnan: alpine forest

25. Policy and climate
interplay

26. Priced mushroom as
agent for forest
transition:
Vegetation/fungal
succession

28. Xishuangbanna, Upper Mekong

29. From shifting cultivator from smallholder rubber farmers
87,000 ha 153,000 ha 424,000 ha (18.3%)
Nature Reserve: 242,000 ha, 12.6%
Xu et al. 2013 Ecological Indicators http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.08.023

30. Respondent reported main livelihood activity

31. Sharing/Sparing
More
More protected
agroforestry? areas?

32. Forest transition pathways in Yunnan
→ State-initiated forest programs
o Regulative, top-down reforestation (NFPP)
o Incentive-based afforestation (SLCP)
→ More recently, voluntary planting of cash trees
o Increasing market-orientation of small farmers
o Little government support, in part driven by companies

33. Key Lessons
1. The forest transition in Yunnan was set off by
government policies.
2. Plantation forests or tree crops contribute largest
share to forest increase.
3. Increasing tree cover might have little
contribution to environmental services
particularly watershed function and biodiversity
4. Endogenous socioeconomic dynamics become
increasingly pertinent for land use transitions.

34. CIFOR-ICRAF Mekong
Sentinel Landscape
Pay attention to forest
transition in Yunnan
(Greater Rivers) and
Mekong highlands!

35. Thanks
Xu Jianchu, email: j.c.xu@cgiar.org