Level 3 autonomous trucks will reach around 3,500 units in 2025, enabled by converged advanced safety technologies. Level 4 autonomous trucks will enter the market after 2035. New partners like IT and cybersecurity companies will join the industry as autonomous driving technologies are adopted. Tier 1 suppliers and new entrants will develop autonomous retrofit solutions with software companies and connectivity suppliers. In 2035, an estimated 179,473 level 3 autonomous trucks will be commercially sold globally, up significantly from 8,310 units in 2025.

1. KEY COMPETITORS
Urbanization Regulatory
Environment
Volatile
Fuel Prices
Driver
Shortage
HEALTH,
WELLNES AND
WELLBEING
CONNECTIVITY
AND
CONVERGENCE
Expansion
of Mega
Corridors
Customization
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THE LAST WORD
Level 3 autonomous trucks will reach ~3,500 units in 2025, enabled by the
convergence of advanced safety technologies and sub-systems while Level
4 autonomous trucks will enter the market after 2035.
The advent of autonomous driving technologies and vehicles will usher new
value chain partners such as IT companies, cybersecurity companies and
algorithm-based developers in the trucking industry.
Tier I suppliers/new autonomous entrants (Otto) will enter the retrofit market
for autonomous driving technologies to develop solutions with IT software
companies, safety and connectivity system suppliers.
AUTOMATED MOBILITY SIGNIFIES THE NEXT
FRONTIER OF COMPETITION
KEY QUESTIONS THIS WILLANSWER
What trends (e.g., regulatory, economic, and operational) are affecting the market?
What technologies will be key to developing a fully autonomous truck (level 3 and above)?
What are the strategic approaches of OEMs and Tier I suppliers to the potential application of
autonomous driving technologies in the trucking industry?
AUTONOMOUS TRUCK FOUNDATION
TECHNOLOGIES USHERING NEW ERA
IN COMMERCIAL TRUCKING
None
Electric-hydraulic
power steering
(EHPS)
Electric braking
system (EBS)
Electronic throttle
control
Adaptive cruise
control (ACC)
Advanced driver
assistance
system (ADAS)
Vehicle to
everything (V2X)
Dedicated
short-range
communication
(DSRC)
Integrated safety
systems (ISS)
Cameras
Sensors
Intersection
assist
Redundancy
backup for
connectivity
Self-driving
capability until
driver takes over
control
Multiple
redundancies
(hardware)
AI (software)
~2025-2028~2019-2022~2015-2020Today ~2035+
LEVEL 3
TRUCK
PLATOONINGLEVEL 2LEVEL 1 LEVEL 4
$0
$5,000-
$10,000 $5,000-
$10,000
$20,000-
$25,000 $30,000
DEGREEOF
AUTOMATION
KEY MEGA TRENDS
NORTH AMERICA
REST OF THE WORLD
EUROPE
RUSSIA
CHINA
JAPAN
AUSTRALIA
In 2035, an estimated 179,473 level 3 autonomous-enabled trucks will be commercially sold for
on-road applications globally, up from 8,310 units in 2025.
GLOBAL AUTOMATED TRUCK ADOPTION
3
7
2 5 6
4
1
TOTAL MARKET,
2035
Automated Truck Adoption, Global, 2035
# Ranking by government
support of autonomous
commercial vehicle technology
LEVEL 2
LEVEL 4
LEVEL 3
Source: Frost & Sullivan