Paper 9: How to increase one's ranking efficiently? (Xu)

How to increase one's ranking “e fficiently ” ? - Decision Pathway Sensitivity Analysis Fang Xu Kent Business School, UKC Centre for the Evaluation of Research Performance (CERP) 3 rd Workshop on IWIPM, 1 st July, 2010, UKC

Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

An example of CAS International Institution Ranking Research ,[object Object],Final Results Change Rate Institutes Data Perturbation (+/-) 5% Institute 1 64.86% Institute 2 56.02% Institute 3 19.78% Institute 4 22.41% Institute 5 36.05% Institute 6 10.16% Institute 7 13.54% Institute 8 17.63% …… . …… .

One of the possible remedy… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

On the other hand… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Decision pathway analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],One more Award winner Two more Award winners Two more HICI researchers One more HICI researcher Change in Rank? One more N&S Pubs Two more N&S Pubs

Criteria and weights of ARWU ranking ,[object Object],Criteria Indicator Code Weight Quality of Education Alumni of an institution winning Nobel Prizes and Fields Medals Alumni 10% Quality of Faculty Staff of an institution winning Nobel Prizes and Fields Medals Award 20% Highly cited researchers in 21 broad subject categories HiCi 20% Research Output Papers published in Nature and Science N&S 20% Papers indexed in Science Citation Index-expanded and Social Science Citation Index PUB 20% Per Capita Performance Per capita academic performance of an institution PCP 10% Total 100% For institutions specialized in humanities and social sciences such as London School of Economics, N&S is not considered, and the weight of N&S is relocated to other indicators.

Data sensitivity of ARWU ranking --- Single indicator perturbation ,[object Object],Change Rate HICI PUB A University B University A University B University 2.50% 2 2 11 7 5.00% 7 5 16 14 7.50% 14 7 25 22 10.00% 16 8 30 26 12.50% 28 13 36 32

Data sensitivity of ARWU ranking --- multi- indicators perturbation ,[object Object],Change In Final Scores HICI 2.50% 5.00% 7.50% 10.00% 12.50% PUB 2.50% 13 15 18 25 34 5.00% 16 23 25 33 40 7.50% 25 28 34 36 51 10.00% 33 34 38 48 59 12.50% 36 42 48 56 65

Data sensitivity of ARWU ranking --- Chain Influence of multi indicators perturbation Scenarios Decision Pathway Description Change in Rank A University B University Scenario 0 0 Award, 0 HICI winner, 0 N&S Pubs - - Scenario 1 0 Award,1 HICI winner 11 5 Scenario 2 0 Award, 1 HICI winner, 2 N&S Pubs (SSCI) 15 8 Scenario 3 1 Award & HICI winner 70 45 Scenario 4 1 Award & HICI winner, 2 N&S Pubs (SSCI) 72 60 Scenario 5 1 Award & HICI winner, 6 N&S Pubs (SSCI) 83 82 Scenario 6 2 Award & HICI winners 118 82 Scenario 7 2 Award & HICI winners, 8 N&S Pubs (SSCI) 130 110 Scenario 8 2 Award & HICI winners, 16 N&S (SSCI), 20 other SSCI Pubs 144 127

Criteria of World Famous University (WFU) Description Indicators Weights Research productivity Total publications 0.3 Total citations 0.2 Research impact Highly cited papers 0.2 Number of subjects in the rank 0.05 Research innovation patents 0.05 Hot papers 0.1 Research development Percentage of highly cited papers 0.1

Data sensitivity of WFU ranking --- Chain Influence of multi indicators perturbation Scenarios Decision Pathway Description Change in Rank of C University Scenario 1 1 more Highly Cited paper 11 Scenario 2 1 more Highly Cited paper, 1 more Hot paper 48 Scenario 3 1 more Highly Cited paper, 1 more Hot paper & 1 more patents 48 Scenario 4 2 more Highly Cited papers 66 Scenario 5 2 more Highly Cited papers, 2 more Hot papers 97 Scenario 6 2 more Highly Cited papers, 2 more Hot papers & 2 more patents 98

Conclusions & Limitations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Paper 9: How to increase one's ranking efficiently? (Xu)

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Paper 9: How to increase one's ranking efficiently? (Xu)