- Thai economic indicators showed broad-based improvement in January from the impacts of flooding in 2011, but growth remains below pre-flood levels. Private consumption and investments increased.
- Manufacturing production continued rising as supply chain issues ease, though export-dependent sectors saw slower growth. Inflation declined further.
- The document discusses risks from higher oil prices and the ongoing European debt crisis, as well as positive factors like the risky asset rally and additional European funding measures.
1. ECONOMIC
UPDATE Capital Markets Research
2 March 2012
Thai Economic Update
January Economic Data Nalin Chutchotitham
nalin.c@kasikornbank.com
• Thai economy continued to recover from the
flood impacts, supporting Thai baht’s strength
alongside a new risky asset rally
• Farm income index declined as prices fell
• Manufacturing production continued to rise as
supply-chain problems ease
• Private consumption index rose for the second
month, in line with confidence levels while
private investment saw stronger gain
• Business confidence returned to the
‘optimistic’ trend
• Preliminary customs data shows exports rising
by 1.2% yoy and a smaller trade deficit
February Inflation Data
• Headline inflation rate continued to fall to
3.35% yoy as food prices’ decline offsetted
energy price increases but future risks remain
• Core inflation rate decline to 2.72% from 2.75%
• Local interest rates almost unchanged; private
deposits and credit growth still robust
• Bond yields started to pick up as expected as
investors price in bond supply reality and a
slowdown in foreign inflows going forward
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained
from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 1 of 7
2. Economic Update
Monthly Economic Data
Thai economy continued to recover from the February, with total amount of EUR529bn, higher than
flood impacts, supporting Thai baht’s strength EUR489bn provided in December. Due to these
developments, the markets perceived an overall
alongside a new risky asset rally improvement in the debt crisis and are buying into risky
January economic indicators showed a broad-based assets such as Asian currencies and commodities. Note
improvement in the economy. Notable increases were that the EUR/USD pair also rebounded strongly from
recorded for manufacturing production, private end-2011 lows.
consumption, investments, tourist arrivals, and exports.
Yet, recall that these are improvements after the Thai Future risk factors/concerns
economy recorded only 0.1% growth in the year 2011,
according to NESDB. Hence, on the basis of activities’ The pick up in crude oil prices has caused alarm as the
level, we should not be complacent while there are risks global economy remained somewhat weak. Oil price is,
from global economic activities and the debt crisis however, likely to remain elevated due to better
ongoing in Europe. Nevertheless, the low level of GDP economic data from the U.S. and Asia. At the same time,
last year offers a higher growth prospect this year. Iran nuclear issue is likely to provide psychological boost
NESDB foresees 5.5% of growth while the BoT said that to prices as well as oil supply faces uncertainties.
it could be revising growth outlook higher to 6.0% from $/ounce $/barrel
2000 115
4.9%. Kasikorn Research Center had revised forecast up
from 4.8% to 5.0% after the GDP data release. 1900
105
1800
Thailand’s GDP growth %yoy and %qoq
% 1700 95
15.0 12.0 1600
9.2 85
10.0 1500
6.3 5.9 6.6
5.2
5.0 3.1 3.8 3.2 3.7
2.7 1400 75
Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12
0.0
Gold prices (left) WTI oil price (right)
-5.0 -2.8
-4.1
-5.2
-10.0 -7.0 As for the European debt crisis, we continue to follow up
-9.0
GDP % YoY GDP % QoQ SA on Greece as debt restructuring continues and the
-15.0
1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11
market is growing more concerned about Portugal after
IMF issued a report that indicates deep concerns for the
Risky assets rally continued from January into February, country’s fiscal development. A second bailout package
yet, there were volatilities along the way there were has been suggested while Portugal’s bond yields had not
uncertainties with regards to the approval of Greece’s declined as much regional peers, despite of ECB’s
second bailout package worth EUR130bn. In the final LTRO.
week of February, it became clearer that Greece would % Sovereign 10-year bond yields
likely receive its additional financial aid to avoid 19.0
Spain Ireland
defaulting on its March 20th payment of some EUR14bn 17.0
Portugal Italy
of debts due. By March 2nd, Greece’s parliament had 15.0
passed legislations concerning fiscal budget and 13.0
economic reforms (e.g. wage and pension regulation and 11.0
healthcare system), readying itself for bond swap with 9.0
private bondholders. Should nothing goes wrong, the 7.0
eurozone countries could retify the second bailout 5.0
th
package for Greece on march 9 . 3.0
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
THB 1.2%
MYR Change against USD, 1 month, 0.6%
as of end 2nd Mar 2012
KRW 0.2%
TWD 0.2% Farm income index declined as prices fell
CNY 0.1%
PHP -0.1% Farm income index extended its fall in January, recording
SGD -0.2% a -11.2% yoy growth compared to December’s -1.0%
INR -0.4% decline. This was primarily due to a large change of
IDR -1.8% 12.0% yoy in agricultural price index but production
JPY -6.4% continued to climb by 0.9% yoy.
-7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0%
Key crops continued to see supply increase, such as
rubber, oil palm, sugarcane, and cassava; rice crops
Furthermore, eurozone governments seem to be heading
remained low due to the floods in Q4. As for prices, there
into a more positive direction by agreeing to speed up the
had been a continuation of decreases from Q4’s levels,
process of transferring funds into the new, permanent
but mainly because of base-effects since global prices
EUR500bn European Stability Mechanism. This could
were exceptionally high last year due to supply
increase international confidence and G20 nations may
constraints of several crops, including rubber.
agree to provide more financial assistance through the
IMF. In addition, the ECB had further provided cheap
funding for European financial institutions (LTRO) in
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was obtained
from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 2 of 7
3. Economic Update
500 260 Private consumption index rose for the
450
240 second month, in line with confidence levels
220
400
200 Private consumption continued to rise towards pre-flood
350 180 levels as the economy gradually recovers. The
160 consumption index (PCI) rose for the second month in
300
140 January, seeing a 0.4% mom growth after adding
250 4.8% mom increase in December. Going forward, the
120
200 100 improvement in manufacturing production should cause
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 factory workers to return to work and also help to improve
Reuters/Jefferies Comdty index (LHS) UN FAO Food price index (RHS) earning prospects, thus providing a boost to consumption
(PCI number is preliminary as data remained
incomplete).
Manufacturing production continued to rise as
supply-chain problems ease % mom Index
6 144
142
4
The manufacturing production index showed an increase 140
of second month of improvement with 19.1% mom 2 138
growth but remained about 15% below the previous 136
0
year’s level. Meanwhile, capacity utilization rate rose 134
from 52.5% in December to 60.2% in January. -2
132
Production and exports from key industries, namely hard -4 130
disk drives, vehicles, and electronics (I/C and semi- Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12
conductors), continued to move nearer to pre-flood levels
PCI sa MoM (left axis) Private consumption index sa (right axis)
as problem of supply-chain disruption dissipates.
% yoy %
Domestic trading indicators showed a significant
40 70
30
slowdown in November but regain its growth momentum
65 in December (data disbursement has 2-month lag) as
20
10 60 flooding problems subsided. Retail trade index dropped
0 by a lesser amount of 1.7% yoy compared to November’s
55
-10
-20 50
decline of 18.8% yoy in November. This was led by
-30 improvement in sales of vehicles and fuel usage.
45
-40 Meanwhile, wholesale trade index increased by 16.0%
-50 40 yoy in December, led by gains in the construction sector
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
and household appliances.
Manufacturing production index ISIC (% yoy, left) Capacity Utilization (% , right)
30 86
25 84
When we split production into the degrees of export- 20
intensiveness, it seems that the more export-dependent 82
15
sectors had observed a slower pace of improvement. 10 80
5 78
Industries exporting more than 60% of total output
0 76
continue to see large negative growth of 29.4% yoy while -5
74
those exporting less than 30% of output saw positive -10
-15 72
growth rate of 4.1%, led by increases in the petroleum,
-20 70
beer production, and construction sectors. Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
% mom Index
40 220 Retail sales % yoy (left) Consumer confidence index (right)
30
200
20 Increase in sales had also been in line with the rise in
10 180 consumer confidence index (CCI) in December.
0 160 Meanwhile, the CCI rose for the second month in
-10 140 January to 74.2 from 73.1 in December.
-20
-30
120
Private investment index sees stronger gain
-40 100
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Private investment index growth (PII) remained in the
MPI sa % mom (left) Manufacturing production index ISIC (3m ma, right) negative zone compared to a year ago (-0.4% yoy) but
activities had gained pace, given the 8.0% mom change.
Increase in investment jives well with the timing of
Two sectors that continued to shrink over the years are manufacturing production recovery as well as exports.
the textiles and garment industries and this is likely due
to both competition from abroad and less robust demand Areas permitted for construction (12m moving average
globally. Growth in the year 2011 for textiles had been - count) continued to rose by 12.7% in January after a gain
17.7% while in January, production continued to fall by of 10.2% in Q4 and 16.1% in December. This points to
39% yoy. Garment output fell 18.0% in 2011 and a somewhat favorable condition for construction overall
further 21.2% yoy in January. despite that we have observed some slowdown in the
residential building due to the floods’ impacts earlier.
Meanwhile, domestic cement sales growth accelerated
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 3 of 7
4. Economic Update
from December’s pace of 4.7% yoy to 7.2% yoy in Preliminary customs data shows exports
January. rising by 1.2% yoy and a smaller trade deficit
% mom Private Investment Index Index
International trade and balance of payments data had
10 220
been delayed due to changes in the Customs
5 210 Department’s data collection changes.
200
0 Earlier on, the Finance Ministry showed preliminary trade
190 data, reporting a slight deficit in the trade balance of
-5
180 USD626.2mn (Customs cleared data), with exports
-10 170 growth at 1.2% yoy and imports growth at -0.2% yoy.
-15 160 BoT’s trade balance (IMF’s BOP basis) may show a
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 small surplus as freight insurance costs is subtracted
PII % mom PII (left axis) from imports. Also, BoT’s data showed a surplus in the
services, income, and transfers category of USD235mn,
Going forward, we continue to foresee a healthy trend in reflecting some support for Thai baht but part of this is
construction and capital expenditure as rehabilitation still affected by insurance payments from abroad. Hence,
efforts from both private and public sectors continue we expect to see a surplus in the current account
while businesses would also start to invest as the balance in January.
economy recovers. (PII numbers are preliminary as data
remained incomplete) However, the capital accounts recorded a deficit of
USD944mn in January, led by outward bound investment
Business confidence returned to the (USD2.77bn) by local investors and an increase in trade
‘optimistic’ trend credits that followed the recovery in Thai exports. These
outflows had overshadowed the capital inflows observed
50 = neutral Thai Business Sentiment Indices
in the stock and bond markets in January (led by global
60 risk-on sentiment).
55
Tourist arrivals and hotel occupancy ratio also indicated
50 an improvement over the previous quarter’s readings.
45
Still, we are concerned that news regarding terrorism
(following a warning issued by the U.S. Embassy in
40
January that terrorists are targeting Bangkok and the
35 later bomb blasts in Sukhumvit Soi 71) in Thailand could
Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 lead to tourists’ avoidance of the country in the future.
BSI BSI 3m forward expectations
'000 %
2,200 75
2,000 70
Business sentiment index increased from 48.5 in 65
1,800
December to 50.80 in January, in line with expectations 60
1,600
and other indicators since manufacturing production is 55
1,400
gradually returning to pre-flood levels while clarity on 50
1,200
45
fiscal spending plans are also starting to surface. The 1,000 40
BoT’s survey showed that businesses saw most 800 35
improvement in the areas of production, order book and 600 30
profit compared to Q4 levels, yet production costs Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
remained a key concern. Tourist arrival ('000 left axis) Hotel occupany rate (right axis)
However, the indicator for business sentiment in the next Tourist arrivals in January increased to 1.94 million
3 months did not see an increase, declining from 56.9 to compared to 1.77 million in December, the highest on
56.5. This may reflect the remaining challenges facing record since 1997. This number constitutes a 8.0% yoy
the business sector, including rising costs of energy, gain from January 2011 and 12.8% change from
wages, and uncertainties in the global economy. December’s level (seasonally adjusted). Meanwhile, hotel
occupancy rate picked up to 65.11% compared to
neutral = 50 Business sentiment indicators 57.14% in December.
70
3Q11 4Q11 Jan-11
60
50 Headline inflation rate continued to fall on
40 food prices’ decline but future risks remain
30 Headline consumer price index (CPI) continued to slow
20
down, recording a 3.35% yoy rise in February compared
to 3.38% yoy increase in January. The main reason why
10
headline CPI had fallen was because the declines in food
Profit Order book Inv estment Employ ment Production cost Production
prices had helped to offset the gains in energy prices.
Meanwhile, the core inflation rate declined to 2.72% from
2.75%.
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 4 of 7
5. Economic Update
5% In the second half of February, bond yields started to pick
4% up as the Finance Ministry announced an additional
3% THB53.5bn of bond issuance for the rest of the quarter,
2%
1%
suggesting a total of more than THb160bn of bond supply
0% during Jan-Mar period. (next two quarters about
-1% THB150bn each quarter) These numbers show relatively
-2% high level of bond supply compared to issuance in the
-3%
-4%
past, despite that some THB200bn is for refinancing of
-5% maturing saving bonds in the last quarter of the fiscal
Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 year.
CPI yoy Core CPI yoy THB bn Bond issuance by quarter (fiscal year Oct 1st - Sep 30th)
175 163 161.5
Going forward, there remain risks of inflationary pressure 150 151.5
150
build-up, especially as costs of energy and construction
materials had started to pick up. Global crude oil price 125 105.5 107.5
96
had risen significantly in recent trade, primarily due to 100
geopolitical risks of Iran’s nuclear issue and improvement 75
in the U.S. economy, lifting expectation of energy 50 32
demand growth. While these factors remain, the crude oil
25
price is likely to remain elevated. Furthermore, the
market is also speculating on higher oil prices, as can be 0
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
observed from the increase of net long-position in crude
oil futures by the non-commercial sector (those not
dealing in physical oil trade). On the other hand, yields were way too low during the
beginning of the month, where 10-year yield was at 3.
'000 contracts NYMEX crude oil futures $/barrel and the 2-10 spread was only 15bp. Although we expect
320 160 periodic inflows from foreign investors throughout the
280
140 year, January and February saw a total of THB 242bn of
240
200 120 net-purchase of Thai bonds (the highest sum of 2 straight
160 100 months of net-buy), indicating high-time for a slowdown.
120
80 80
40 THB bn
60
0 180 163 163
40 160
-40
-80 20 140 127 128.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 120
100 84 79 79
WTI spot, right axis ($ / barrel) Net Long / Short, left axis ('000 contracts) 73 71
80
60 48 45.0
40
40 28 16 19
28 24
Kasikorn Research Center expects that the headline 20 10
-1 1
inflation rate would see an average of 3.9% this year, 0
with forecast range of 3.5-4.5%. Meanwhile, core inflation -20
rate could average at 3.0% this year, suggesting that Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
there could be months where the core inflation rate foreign net-buy in THB bonds (billion baht)
exceeds the upper band of BoT’s policy target. Yet,
should increase in inflation rate be temporary, rising As of March 1st, yields for the 2-, 5- and 10-year bonds
numbers should not trigger the BoT to start raising its had risen by 12bp, 28bp and 35bp, respectively. As a
policy rate so soon. We expect the BoT to keep policy result the yield curve steepened along the 5-10 year
rate unchanged until the year ends as the Thai economy maturities, leading 2-10 spread to rise to 38bp. In any
goes through a recovery phase in the first half and case, we expect mid-curve yields to remain in range
continues to face risks from growth abroad. trade, with volatilities caused by investors’ profit-taking
and re-entries, subject to both global and local market
risk sentiment. Short-term yields are likely to see much
Bond yields started to pick up as expected as less volatility as the current market’s view on policy rate
investors price in bond supply reality and a is that it would remain unchanged for at least 2 quarters.
%
slowdown in foreign inflows going forward 8.0
% Government bond yields vs. policy rate 7.0
4.25 6.0
4.00 5.0
3.75 4.0
3.0
3.50
2.0
3.25 1.0
3.00 0.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
2.75
US 10-yr Thai 10-yr
Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12
policy rate 2y 5y 10y
The graph above shows that Thai bond yields continue to
give an advantage to foreign investors vs. the U.S.
treasuries. Coupled with low borrowing costs in G3
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 5 of 7
6. Economic Update
economies, we expect carry trade and investment in local
bonds to continue throughout the year. Private sector’s deposit and credit growth remained
robust with double-digit increase from the previous year.
Interest rates almost unchanged; private Deposit growth picked up pace at 11.3% yoy growth in
deposits and credit growth still robust January, higher than that of December’s growth of 9.7%
yoy. This is mainly due to the amassing of deposits by
% %
the commercial banks in preparation for continued high
4.5 7.50
4.0 demand for loans in 2012. Meanwhile, credit growth
7.00
3.5 remained high at 16.0% yoy and is expected to fall only
6.50
3.0 very gradually due to high demand for growth in both the
2.5 6.00
household and business sector for rehabilitation and
2.0 5.50
1.5
reconstruction.
5.00
1.0
0.5 4.50
0.0 4.00
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
Repo rate 12m deposit rate MLR (right axis)
The 4 large banks’ average 1-year fixed deposit rate was
almost unchanged in February at 2.73%. Banks
continued to offer special deposit programs to attract
deposits with the outlook that policy rate would stay at
3.00% and credit demand stayed constantly high. Asset
management companies had also begun issuing short-
term mutual funds (both government debt and foreign
deposits) to compete with banks’ deposits. However, the
average minimum lending rate (MLR) among 4 large
banks declined from 7.22% to 7.13% as of end-January.
% yoy
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Private credit Private deposits
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 6 of 7
7. Economic Update
Bank of Thailand Data Table
Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12
The Real Sector (%yoy , unless specified otherwise)
Manufacturing Production Index, seasonally adjusted (level) 185.2 195.9 188.1 132.6 101.2 139.4 166.0
Manufacturing Production Index, without seasonal adjustment (level) 188.9 196.1 200.8 133.7 100.5 140.7 158.6
Manufacturing Production Index, without seasonal adjustment -0.7 6.8 -0.3 -30.1 -47.2 -25.3 -15.2
Industrial Capacity Utilization (%) 63.1 65.0 65.5 46.4 40.5 51.9 58.5
Private Consumption Indicators (%yoy)
Retail Sales (at 2002 prices) 6.1 13.6 12.4 -18.5 -18.8 -1.7 n.a.
Passenger Car Sales (units) 12.2 26.4 29.4 -38.8 -62.1 -33.8 -9.8
Motorcycle Sales (units) 0.4 26.1 16.4 -14.1 -22.4 -22.3 -7.4
Imports of Consumer Goods (at 2000 prices) 9.5 17.1 15.7 2.7 0.2 14.1 n.a.
Private Investment Indicators
Commercial Car Sales (units) 10.1 15.7 25.7 -41.8 -71.5 -46.9 29.1
Imports of Capital Goods (at 2000 prices) 10.4 17.0 5.5 1.3 -2.3 13.5 n.a.
Cement Sales (tons) 6.6 11.8 11.4 10.2 -2.2 4.7 7.2
Government Cash Balance (billions of baht) -38.6 -9.8 95.6 -64.9 -28.6 -37.1 -29.7
Consumer Price Index 4.08 4.29 4.03 4.19 4.19 3.53 3.38
Food 7.17 8.43 8.84 9.86 10.21 9.09 7.70
Non-Food 2.21 1.77 1.07 0.75 0.54 0.17 0.73
Core Inflation (excluding raw food and energy) 2.59 2.85 2.92 2.89 2.90 2.66 2.75
External Accounts (Millions of US$, unless specified otherwise)
Exports 21,098 20,940 21,259 17,019 15,287 16,856.0 n.a
( % yoy) 36.4 28.4 18.4 -0.1 -13.1 -2.1 n.a
Imports 16,546 20,235 18,840 16,006 15,068 17,094.0 n.a
( % yoy) 13.2 45.9 42.6 20.6 -1.9 19.6 n.a
Trade Balance 4,552 705 2,419 1,013 218 -238.0 n.a
Current Account Balance 3,438 -697 404 39 -136 1,940.0 n.a
Capital Account 0 -40 34 0 0 0 0
Financial Account -2,496 161 317 -1,459 -1,664 -2,834 -944
- Monetary authority (central bank) 2,316 -1,451 -755 -307 -392 -603 761
- Government 873 922 6 67 80 230 346
- Other depository corporations (banks) -5,708 883 3,866 -4,103 -3,897 -700 719
- Others 23 -193 -2,800 2,884 2,546 -1,761 -2,770
Balance of Payments 541 -556 -1,674 -1,886 -1,506 -1,029 n.a
Official Reserves (billions of US$) 187.6 188.3 180.1 182.0 178.3 175.1 178.6
Monetary Statistics (End of period) (Billions of baht)
Monetary Base 1,206.8 1,219.2 1,229.5 1,310.2 1,259.0 1,365.5 1,331.9
( % yoy) 13.1 16.6 10.0 22.2 13.4 9.8 8.0
Narrow Money (M1) 1,336.3 1,345.1 1,328.0 1,361.9 1,362.7 1,414.3 1,401.3
( % yoy) 13.9 13.9 13.0 13.3 10.3 8.6 5.7
Broad Money (M2) 12,799.4 12,875.3 12,913.9 13,151.1 13,330.5 13,566.0 13,690.2
( % yoy) 17.6 17.4 16.2 16.1 15.9 15.2 15.8
Other Depository Corporations Deposits 11,077.8 11,153.5 11,082.1 11,363.3 11,461.7 11,634.5 11,806.4
( % yoy) 11.1 11.4 9.8 11.3 10.3 9.9 11.3
Other Depository Corporations Private Credits 10,718.9 10,899.7 11,079.9 11,209.6 11,309.8 11,558.9 11,673.5
( % yoy) 16.3 17.2 17.5 17.0 16.0 16.2 16.0
Interest Rates (% p.a.)
Repurchase Rate, 1 day (closing rate daily average) 3.16 3.32 3.50 3.50 3.49 3.25 3.19
Overnight Interbank Rate (mode daily average) 3.06 3.22 3.40 3.41 3.39 3.15 3.09
Fixed Deposit Rate (1 year) 2.45-2.75 2.45-3.00 2.70-3.00 2.70-3.00 2.70-3.00 2.70-3.00 2.87
Prime Rate (MLR) 7.12-7.50 7.12-7.50 7.25-7.625 7.25-7.625 7.25-7.625 7.25-7.625 7.22
Exchange Rate (Baht : US$) 30.07 29.87 30.42 30.86 30.95 31.20 31.55
Source: Bank of Thailand
For private circulation only. The foregoing is for informational purposes only and not to be considered as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Although the information herein was
obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy nor do we assume responsibility for any error or mistake contained herein.
Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained upon request.
Page 7 of 7