Weitere Ă€hnliche Inhalte Ăhnlich wie Cap 24 indices de precios (20) KĂŒrzlich hochgeladen (20) Cap 24 indices de precios1. Measuring the Cost of
Living
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Slides by
Ron Cronovich
2013 UPDATE
N. Gregory Mankiw
Economics
Principles of
Sixth Edition
24
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11
En este capĂtulo,
buscaremos respuesta a estas preguntas:
⹠¿Qué es el Indice de precios al consuidor (IPC)?
¿Cómo se calcula? ¿Para qué se usa?
⹠¿Cuåles son los problemas con el IPC? ¿Qué tan
serios son esos problemas?
âą ÂżCĂłmo difiere el IPC del deflactor del PBI?
âą ÂżCĂłmo podemos utilizar el IPC para comprar sumas
de dinero en COP de diferentes años? ¿Por qué
querrĂamos hacer eso?
âą ÂżCĂłmo podemos corregir por inflaciĂłn las tasas de
interés?
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22
El Ăndice de precios al consumidor (IPC)
ï§ Mide el cĂłsto de vida del consumidor tĂpico
(promedio)
ï§ the basis of cost of living adjustments (COLAs)
in many contracts and in Social Security
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33
CĂłmo se calcula el IPC
1. Se fija la âcanastaâ de consumo
El DANE entrevista a consumidores para
determinar como es la âcanasta de consumo
tĂpicaâ
2. Encontrar los precios.
El DANE busca precios de cada uno de los
bienes en la cesta de consumo.
3. Calcular el costo de la canasta.
Utiliza los precios para computar el costo total
de la canasta.
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44
CĂłmo se calcula el IPC
4. Elegir un año base y computar el Ăndice.
El IPC de cualquier año es
5. Computar el Ăndice de inflaciĂłn.
El cambio porcentual del IPC respecto al año
anterior es
100 x
Costo de la canasta en el año corriente
Costo de la canasta en año base
IPC este año â IPC año anterior
IPC año anterior
Tasa de
InflaciĂłn
x 100%=
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55
EXAMPLE basket: {4 pizzas, 10 lattes}
$12 x 4 + $3 x 10 = $78
$11 x 4 + $2.5 x 10 = $69
$10 x 4 + $2 x 10 = $60
cost of basket
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
price of
latte
$122012
$112011
$102010
price of
pizza
year
Compute CPI in each year
2010: 100 x ($60/$60) = 100
2011: 100 x ($69/$60) = 115
2012: 100 x ($78/$60) = 130
Inflation rate:
15%
115â 100
100
x 100%=
13%
130â 115
115
x 100%=
using 2010 base year:
7. A c t i v i d a d
Calculate the CPI
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CPI basket:
{10 lbs beef,
20 lbs chicken}
The CPI basket cost $120
in 2010, the base year.
A. Compute the CPI in 2011.
B. What was the CPI inflation rate from 2011â2012?
price
of beef
price of
chicken
2010 $4 $4
2011 $5 $5
2012 $9 $6
8. A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
Answers
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A. Compute the CPI in 2011:
Cost of CPI basket in 2011
= ($5 x 10) + ($5 x 20) = $150
CPI in 2011 = 100 x ($150/$120) = 125
CPI basket:
{10 lbs beef,
20 lbs chicken}
The CPI basket cost $120
in 2010, the base year.
price
of beef
price of
chicken
2010 $4 $4
2011 $5 $5
2012 $9 $6
9. A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 1
Answers
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permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
price
of beef
price of
chicken
2010 $4 $4
2011 $5 $5
2012 $9 $6
CPI basket:
{10 lbs beef,
20 lbs chicken}
The CPI basket cost $120
in 2010, the base year.
B. What was the inflation rate from 2011â2012?
Cost of CPI basket in 2012
= ($9 x 10) + ($6 x 20) = $210
CPI in 2012 = 100 x ($210/$120) = 175
CPI inflation rate = (175 â 125)/125 = 40%
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9
Whatâs in the CPIâs Basket?
15.3%
41.0%
3.6%
16.9%
7.1%
6.0%
3.2%
3.6%
3.4%
Food and bev.
Housing
Apparel
Transportation
Medical care
Recreation
Education
Communication
Other goods
and services
11. A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
Substitution bias
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CPI basket:
{10# beef,
20# chicken}
In 2010 and 2011,
households
bought CPI basket.
In 2012, households bought {5 lbs beef, 25 lbs chicken}.
beef chicken
cost of CPI
basket
2010 $4 $4 $120
2011 $5 $5 $150
2012 $9 $6 $210
A. Compute cost of the 2012 household basket.
B. Compute % increase in cost of household basket
over 2011â12, compare to CPI inflation rate.
12. A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
Answers
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permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website for classroom use.
A. Compute cost of the 2012 household basket.
($9 x 5) + ($6 x 25) = $195
CPI basket:
{10# beef,
20# chicken}
Household
basket in 2012:
{5# beef,
25# chicken}
beef chicken
cost of CPI
basket
2010 $4 $4 $120
2011 $5 $5 $150
2012 $9 $6 $210
13. A C T I V E L E A R N I N G 2
Answers
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B. Compute % increase in cost of household basket
over 2011â12, compare to CPI inflation rate.
Rate of increase: ($195 â $150)/$150 = 30%
CPI inflation rate from previous problem = 40%
CPI basket:
{10# beef,
20# chicken}
Household
basket in 2012:
{5# beef,
25# chicken}
beef chicken
cost of CPI
basket
2010 $4 $4 $120
2011 $5 $5 $150
2012 $9 $6 $210
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1313
Problemas con el IPC:
Sesgo de sustituciĂłn
ï§ A lo largo del tiempo, algunos precios aumentan mĂĄs
rĂĄpido que otros.
ï§ Los consumidores sustituyen consumo hacia
aquellos bienes que son relativamente mĂĄs baratos,
mitigando el efecto de el aumento en los precios.
ï§ EL IPC ignora esta sustituciĂłndado que usa una
canasta fija de bienes.
ï§ Por lo tanto, el IPC sobreestima el incremento en el
costo de la vida.
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1414
Problemas con el IPC:
IntroducciĂłn de nuevos bienes
ï§ La introducciĂłn de nuevos bienes incrementa la
variedad, y permite a los consumidores
encontrar productos que se ajustan mejor a sus
necesidades.
ï§ Esto reduce el costo de mantener el mismo
nivel de bienestar econĂłmico
ï§ El IPC ignora este efecto porque utiliza una
cesta fija de bienes.
ï§ Por lo tanto, el IPC sobreestima el incremento
en el costo de vida.
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1515
Problemas con el IPC:
Cambios de calidad no medidos
ï§ Mejoras en la calidad de los bienes incluidos en
la canasta aumenta el valor de cada unidad
monetaria (COP).
ï§ Si estos cambios en la calidad no se tienen en
cuenta, el IPC sobreestima los incrementos en el
costo de la vida.
ï§ Idealmente la canasta debe ser de una calidad
constante.
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1616
Problems with the CPI
ï§ Each of these problems causes the CPI to
overstate cost of living increases.
ï§ The BLS has made technical adjustments,
but the CPI probably still overstates inflation
by about 0.5 percent per year.
ï§ This is important because Social Security
payments and many contracts have COLAs tied
to the CPI.
18. -5
0
5
10
15
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
GDP deflator CPI
Two Measures of Inflation, 1960â2012Percentchangeperyear
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1818
Bienes importados consumidos:
ï§ Incluidos en el IPC
ï§ Excluidos del deflactor
La canasta:
ï§ IPC usa canasta fija
ï§ Deflactor usa la canasta de bs y
servicios producidos en cada perĂodo
Esto es importante cuando los precios
cambian en diferentes proporciones.
Bienes de capital:
ï§ Excluidos del IPC
ï§ Incluidos en el deflactor (si se
producen domésticamente)
ComparaciĂłn entre el IPC y el deflactor
del PBI
20. A c t i v i d a d
IPC vs. deflactor del PBI
En cada escenario, determine los efectos sobre el
IPC y el deflactor del PBI.
A. Juan Valdez aumenta el precio de los
capuchinos.
B. Caterpillar aumenta el precio de los tractores
en su empresa de Bucaramanga.
C. Zara aumenta el precio de los Jeans europeos
vendidos en Colombia.
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21. A c t i v i d a d
Respuestas
A. Juan Valdez aumenta el precio de los
capuchinos.
El IPC y el deflactor del PBI aumentan
B. Caterpillar aumenta el precio de los tractores
en su empresa de Bucaramanga.
El deflactor del PBI aumenta, el IPC no.
C. Armani aumenta el precio de los Jeans
italianos vendidos en Colombia.
Aumenta el IPC, el deflactor del PBI no
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2121
Corrigiendo variables por inflaciĂłn:
Comparando montos de dinero en diferentes
momentos del tiempo
ï§ La inflaciĂłn hace dificil comparar montos de dinero
de diferentes momentos del tiempo.
ï§ Ejemplo: Salario mĂnimo
ï§ $1.15 in Dic 1964
ï§ $7.25 in Dic 2010
ï§ ÂżTiene el mismo poder de compra el salario
mĂnimo de 1964 y el de 2010?
ï§ Para comparar, usamos el IPC para convertir el
dinero de 1964 en âpesos de 2010ââŠ
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2222
ï§ En nuestro ejemplo,
ï§ âaño Tâ es 1964, âhoyâ (base) es 2010
ï§ Salario mĂnimo era $1.15 en año T
ï§ IPC = 31.3 en año T, IPC = 220.3 hoy
Corrigiendo variables por inflaciĂłn:
Comparando montos de dinero en diferentes
momentos del tiempo
Monto en
$ de hoy
Monto en
$ del año
T
Nivel de precios hoy
Nivel de precios en año T
= x
$8.09 $1.15
220.3
31.3
= x
El salario mĂnimo en
1964 era $8.09
en $ de 2010.
24. $0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
DolaresporhoraSalario mĂnimo en dĂłlares corrientes y dĂłlares de
2013 para U.S., 1960â2013
dolares de 2013
Dolares corrientes
25. A c t i v i d a d
Comparando el incremento de
matricula universitaria
MatrĂcula en las universidades
1990 2010
Privada sin fines de lucro 4-años $9,340 $27,293
PĂșblica 4-años $1,908 $7,605
PĂșblic 2-años $906 $2,713
IPC 130.7 218.1
Instrucciones: Exprese la matrĂcula de 1990 en
dĂłlares de 2010, luego compute el incremento
porcentual en cada tipo de institución. ¿Qué
instituciĂłn experimentĂł el mayor incremento?
26. E j e r c i c i o 4
Respuestas
1990 2010 % Cambio
IPC 130.7 218.1 66.9%
Privada sin fines de lucro 4-
años ($ corrientes)
$9,340 $27,293
Privada sin fines de lucro 4-
años (2010 $)
$15,586 $27,293 75.1%
PĂșblica 4-años ($ corrientes) $1,908 $7,605
PĂșblica 4-años (2010 $) $3,184 $7,605 138.9%
PĂșblic 2-años ($ corrientes) $906 $2,713
PĂșblic 2-años (2010 $) $1,512 $2,713 79.4%
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2626
Corrigiendo variables por inflaciĂłn: IndexaciĂłn
Por ejemplo, el aumento del IPC automĂĄticamente
aumenta el alquiler de un apartamento, por
contrato.
La cantidad de dinero estĂĄ indexada por
inflaciĂłn
si automĂĄticamente se corrige por inflaciĂłn
por ley o contrato.
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2727
Corrigiendo variables por inflaciĂłn:
Tasas de interés Reales vs. Nominales
La tasa de interés nominal es:
ï§ La tasa de interĂ©s no corregida por inflaciĂłn
ï§ La tasa de crecimiento de una unidad monetaria
de un depĂłsito o deuda
Tasa de interés real:
ï§ Corregida por inflacĂłn
ï§ Tasa de crecimiento del poder de compra de una
unidad monetaria en un depĂłsito o deuda
Tasa de interés real
= (tasa de interĂ©s nominal) â (tasa de inflaciĂłn)
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2828
Corrigiendo variables por inflaciĂłn:
Tasas de interés Reales vs. Nominales
Ejemplo:
ï§ Deposito de $1,000 por un año.
ï§ Tasa de interĂ©s nominal 9%.
ï§ Durante ese año, la inflaciĂłn es 3.5%.
ï§ Tasa de interĂ©s real
= Tasa de interĂ©s nominal â InflaciĂłn
= 9.0% â 3.5% = 5.5%
ï§ El poder de compra de los $1000 de deposito
ha crecido un 5.5%.
30. -10
-5
0
5
10
15
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
TasadeInteres
(porcentajeporaño)
Nominal Real
Tasa de interés Real y Nominal en U.S.,
1950â2013
31. R e s u m e n
âą El Indice de precios al consumidor mide el costo
de la vida. El IPC refleja el costo de una
canasta bĂĄsica de bienes y servicios.
âą El IPC se utiliza para medir cĂłmo ajusta el costo
de vida y corregir las variables econĂłmicas por
los efectos de la inflaciĂłn.
⹠La tasa de interés real se corrige por inflación y
se computa sustrayendo la inflaciĂłn a la tasa de
interés nominal.
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