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U.S. office sector posts highest
quarterly absorption of the recovery
United States Office Review Q2 2014
Rents are running away from tenants in
urbanized quality cores with level of increase
expected to escalate due to capital demand
(investment sales) having just as big of an
impact on rent growth over the next 24 months
as leasing demand due to increasingly bullish
underwriting projections from sales /
refinancings.
Fundamentals are tightening across markets, particularly
absorption and development
2
Source: JLL Research
Leasing activity
• Q2 posted 61.9 million square feet of leasing activity.
• Leasing levels up 6.2 percent from Q1 2014.
• Compared to Q2 2013, leasing volume is up 0.2 percent.
Absorption
• Absorption levels increase, resulting in the 17th consecutive quarter of occupancy growth.
• The 13.9 million square feet of net absorption during Q2 represents the highest quarterly occupancy growth
during this cycle so far.
• This quarter’s biggest contributors to absorption were New York, Boston, Houston, Chicago, Philadelphia
Seattle, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Vacancy
• Vacancy dropped by 30 basis points to a recovery low of 16.3 percent. This comes after two quarters at 16.6
percent.
• Both CBDs and suburbs played a role in this decline, falling to 13.7 percent and 18.0 percent, respectively.
Rents
• Despite improved market conditions, asking rents declined by 0.7 percent to $30.00 per square foot. This was
mostly the result of blocks of quality Class A space being taken off the market in many markets, compounded
with falling rents and elevated vacancy in Washington, DC.
• In supply-constrained CBDs, this was more pronounced, as rents fell by 1.0 percent. In the suburbs, asking
rents increased slightly to $24.23 per square foot.
Construction
• YTD construction starts have totaled almost 21.0 million square feet. This is nearly equal to all starts posted in
2013.
• Although Houston remains the leader in construction, 18 markets registered more than 1.0 million square feet
as volumes have jumped by 38.4 percent to 65.4 million square feet nationally.
Nearly half of all markets (49.0 percent) reported an increase in
leasing activity in Q2 compared to Q1
3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Up Neutral Down
Source: JLL Research
In turn, leasing volumes rose by 6.2 percent to 61.9 million
square feet after two consecutive quarters of declines
4
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Leasingactivity(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
While 0.2 percent higher than Q2 2013 leasing activity, this was
slightly below the Q2 average since 2007
5
62,856,296
62,499,312
54,446,297
66,724,307
67,948,333
63,411,335
61,762,387
61,906,383
0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000
Q2 2007
Q2 2008
Q2 2009
Q2 2010
Q2 2011
Q2 2012
Q2 2013
Q2 2014
Leasing activity (s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Outside of top markets, leasing activity relatively even across
geographies, similar to previous quarters
6
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
NewYork
Chicago
Washington,DC
LosAngeles
Boston
Philadelphia
Dallas
SanFrancisco
OrangeCounty
NewJersey
Denver
SanDiego
Seattle
Phoenix
SiliconValley
Houston
Minneapolis
Portland
St.Louis
FairfieldCounty
Austin
Charlotte
Detroit
Baltimore
Oakland-EastBay
Indianapolis
Miami
Pittsburgh
SanFranciscoPeninsula
Atlanta
Sacramento
KansasCity
Tampa
Cincinnati
HamptonRoads
Cleveland
Columbus
Raleigh-Durham
Orlando
WestchesterCounty
Jacksonville
FortLauderdale
WestPalmBeach
Milwaukee
LongIsland
SaltLakeCity
SanAntonio
Richmond
Leasingactivity(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
38.9% 20.6% 40.5%
Q2 represents highest quarterly absorption throughout the
recovery so far (13.9 million square feet)
7
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterlynetabsorption(as%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
15-year trailing annual average
As a result, YTD absorption represents roughly 56.4 percent of
last year’s occupancy gains
8
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
YTDnetabsorption(as%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
15-year trailing
annual average
Class A space, both in CBDs and suburbs, continues to lead the
way in take-up of space
9
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterlynetabsorption(s.f.)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
Although tech and energy continue to make strong gains in
absolute terms, their share of absorption is decreasing as the
recovery gains momentum elsewhere
10
Source: JLL Research
NYC and DC (*excludes Midtown South)
Tech markets (*includes Midtown South)
Energy markets
Sunbelt
All other markets
70.0%
29.7%
6.4%
2010
5.1%
33.5%
19.0%
18.4%
23.9%
2011
5.1%
33.5%
19.0%
18.4%
23.9%
2012
11.1%
21.6%
22.3%
18.6%
26.4%
2013
7.5%
25.2%
16.7%
24.6%
26.0%
2014
Only nine markets have experienced a net loss of occupancy
YTD, of which less than half are more than -200,000 square feet
11
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
NewYork
Houston
Atlanta
Boston
SiliconValley
LosAngeles
Phoenix
Denver
Chicago
Seattle-Bellevue
Baltimore
Dallas
OrangeCounty
SanFrancisco
Charlotte
Portland
Detroit
Miami
Philadelphia
St.Louis
SaltLakeCity
Milwaukee
Raleigh-Durham
WestPalmBeach
Cincinnati
FortLauderdale
FairfieldCounty
SanFranciscoPeninsula
LongIsland
KansasCity
Minneapolis
Austin
Sacramento
Columbus
Indianapolis
Cleveland
SanDiego
HamptonRoads
Oakland-EastBay
Jacksonville
SanAntonio
TampaBay
WestchesterCounty
Pittsburgh
Richmond
Orlando
NewJersey
Washington,DC
YTDnetabsorption(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Energy, tech and Sunbelt markets all posting above-average
absorption; Sunbelt surpassing energy in some cases
12
0.5%
1.0%
1.4%
1.0%
0.9%
1.0%
0.9%
2.1%
1.3%
1.4%
1.3%
0.7%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
YTDnetabsorption(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Energy Tech Sunbelt
U.S. average
Gains in NYC, Boston and much of the Sunbelt push up East
Coast to top share of absorption during Q2
13
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Shareofquarterlynetabsorption
East Coast Central West Coast
Source: JLL Research
Even though Atlanta and South Florida are nearing 2013
absorption levels already, rest of the East Coast is catching up
14
Source: JLL Research
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Netabsorption(s.f.)
Atlanta South Florida Rest of the East Coast
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Netabsorption(s.f.)
Atlanta Chicago Los Angeles Miami Philadelphia Phoenix
Diversified markets hit another recovery high with 3.1 million
square feet of occupancy gains, this quarter led by Chicago
15
Source: JLL Research
Atlanta and Phoenix have
absorbed a combined 13.0
million square feet since
2010, or 65.1 percent of
cumulative total.
Quarterly Class B absorption over the past four quarters is taking
place 3.4x faster than from 2010 to Q2 2013…
16
Source: JLL Research
10,975,302
10,604,042
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2010-Q2 2013 Past four quarters
ClassBnetabsorption(s.f.)
783,950 s.f. per quarter 2,651,011 s.f. per quarter
…although 5.8x as much Trophy and Class A space has been
absorbed than B and C during the same time period
17
Source: JLL Research
Trophy and Class A
net absorption
118.4
m.s.f.2010-2014
Class B and C net
absorption
20.5
m.s.f.2011-2014
Class A space saw its highest share of quarterly absorption this
quarter since Q2 2012
18
133.5%
93.9%
74.5% 76.3%
295.2%
98.5%
82.0% 78.3%
45.2%
73.4%
63.5%
80.9%
57.3%
82.3%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
250.0%
300.0%
350.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption
Source: JLL Research
At the same time, all total net absorption took place in Class A
space during Q2
19
166.2%
90.4% 88.8%
80.8%
100.0%
106.1%
74.8%
0.0%
88.1% 86.5%
49.6%
92.0%
48.8%
100.9%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption
Source: JLL Research
Although higher than in Q1 2014, suburbs display the opposite,
trend, with only two-thirds of absorption in Class A space in Q2
20
116.9%
97.9%
62.3%
75.1%
167.8%
102.5%
84.3% 85.3%
43.2%
73.4% 72.8% 70.3%
61.1%
67.6%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption
Source: JLL Research
Limited Class A options, particularly for larger tenants, have
boosted YTD Class B absorption in certain CBDs
21
2.7%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Milwaukee Oakland CBD Greenwich CBD Atlanta Phoenix Silicon Valley CBD
YTDCBDClassBnetabsorption(%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
U.S. average
Still, Class A continues to trump Class B according to most
indicators
22
Source: JLL Research
of absorbed space in 2014
has been Class A
per square foot difference
between Class A and B space…
rate at which Class A rates are growing
compared to Class B year-on-year
difference between Class A and
Class B total vacancy
Due to high levels of take-up, total vacancy fell by 579,661
square feet over the quarter to 16.3 percent, or 30 basis points
23
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Totalvacancy(%)
Source: JLL Research
Still, vacancy levels remain closer to historical highs than lows
24
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Totalvacancy(%)
Source: JLL Research
Total vacancy is stable or declining in all segments of the market;
CBD Class A experiences largest drop (-50 basis points)
25
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Totalvacancy(%)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD)
Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
Industry Real estate footprint Most affected markets
State government Contracting California, Illinois, New Jersey
Federal government Contracting Washington, DC
Media/print Contracting LA, NYC
Finance/banking Contracting NYC, Charlotte, Chicago, Palm Beach, Pittsburgh
Law firms Contracting (rightsizing) Washington, DC, NYC, SF, Atlanta, LA
Consulting Contracting (rightsizing) NYC, Chicago, Washington, DC
Accounting Contracting (rightsizing) Chicago, NYC, LA
Telecom Stable NJ, Dallas, Atlanta
Retail/consumer goods Stable NYC, Atlanta, Los Angeles
Education Growing Everywhere
Media (digital and TV) Growing Atlanta, NYC, LA, Philadelphia, Washington, DC
Green energy/clean technology Growing Pittsburgh, Silicon Valley, Denver
Real estate (residential) Growing Southern CA, Nevada, AZ, FL, GA, Carolinas
Technology Growing Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Austin, Seattle, Portland,
Midtown South NYC, Cambridge, MA
Shared office space providers / co-working
spaces Growing All markets particularly coastal markets and Chicago
Natural gas/oil/energy Growing Denver, Houston, Dallas, Pittsburgh
Biotech/pharmaceutical Growing San Francisco, San Diego, NJ/Phil, Boston, RDU
Office growth being driven by atypical tenant industries
26
Source: JLL Research
Demographics and technology are driving productivity and
utilization and the next evolution of office space use
27
Source: JLL Research
15%
space reduction by
U.S. law firms and
financial services
relocating
72%
of global CREs plan
to aggressively
increase density in
next 3 years
150
Square-foot-per-
employee average
target density, down
from 225 in 2009
50%
of the U.S.
workforce was
baby boomers in
2010. Gen Y will
be 50% by 2020
Many of these changes show stark pre- and post-recession
contrasts
28
Source: JLL Research
Floor plates
Floor plates are up
from 25,000
square feet before
the recession to
60,000 square
feet.
Personal space
Before the
recession,
employees had
around 300 s.f. per
person; now they
have 200 s.f.
Interaction
Employees have
gone from rarely
running into others
to a nine-in-ten
change of bumping
into a coworker.
Building features
Aesthetic and
building features
such as increased
roof heights and
floor-to-ceiling
windows are “in.”
And, as a result, law firms are shifting
29
Source: JLL Research
15.2%
Giveback by law firm
across the U.S. when
relocating
20.5%
Giveback by law firm
across the top seven U.S.
markets when relocating
24.7%
Giveback by law firm
across DC when
relocating
• Going digital
• Elimination of law libraries
• One-sized fits all office
• Higher administrative ratios
• Migration to glass boxes
• Migration to long and lean
• Migration to smaller floorplates
Consulting and accounting are shifting
30
Source: JLL Research
25.0%
Giveback by consulting
firms across the U.S.
when relocating
225 s.f.
Average space per
consultant in
years past
90 s.f.
Average space per
consultant in the most
efficient firms today
• Benching
• Work flexibly and client officing
• Offices gone, collaboration rooms in
• Increasingly looking at new
construction to meet efficiency
standards
• Industry giving back most space
Technology companies are shifting
31
Source: JLL Research
22.0%
Percent increase in
high-tech service jobs
since 2009
13.6%
Total vacancy in core tech
markets, compared to 16.3
percent nation-wide
2.2%
Growth in
core tech market
rents in 2014
• Benching is standard
• Less personal space, more shared
and amenity space
• “Open hangar” design preferred
• Migration to Class B+ with
character
• Space viewed as core to culture
• Remote work is waning
Banks are shifting
32
Source: JLL Research
10.1%
Give-back by average bank
across the U.S. when
renewing (flat headcount)
86.0%
Percent of banking
transactions that no
longer need a teller
66.0%
Percent of surveyed
banks planning to
reduce CRE footprint
• Regulation and cost pressures
forcing portfolio consolidation
• Offices shrinking
• Business units competing
• Branch reductions common
• Increasing importance of back
office (second- and third-tier
markets)
• Remote working increasing
Even the federal government is shifting
33
Source: JLL Research
170 s.f.
Target utilization rate per
employee for federally
leased space
$1.7 billion
Amount spent annually
by the GSA for properties
deemed underutilized
15.9%
Average give-back by
GSA across Metro DC
in FY 2013
• Telecommuting
• Benching
• Co-locations
• Minimal funds to implement
• Consolidations in low cost
buildings/submarkets
• Migration to off-center locations
• Disposition of underutilized
assets.
As office-using employment increases by 199,000 net new jobs,
vacancy declines to 16.3 percent
34
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
26,000
26,500
27,000
27,500
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500
30,000
2011 2012 2013 2014
Totalvacancy(%)
Office-usingemployment(thousands)
Office-using employment (thousands) Total vacancy (%)
Source: JLL Research
CBD and suburban vacancy both inch downward, this quarter to
13.7 percent and 18.0 percent, respectively
35
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
Totalvacancy(%)
Source: JLL Research
Following declines in total and direct vacancy, sublease space
falls to 53.7 million square feet, or 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter
36
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Subleasespace(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
After 13 consecutive quarters of growth, rents decline slightly
due to Class A space removals and drops in Washington, DC and
Downtown Manhattan
37
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterlyrentgrowth(%)
Source: JLL Research
Year-on-year, rents are still rising faster than before, up 2.7 and
1.7 percent for Class A and B space, respectively
38
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Averageaskingrents($p.s.f.)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD)
Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
U.S. office market continues to move along the clock as fewer
available options exist for tenants, spurring development
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Atlanta, Indianapolis, Jacksonville
Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, Tampa, United States
Miami, Milwaukee, Oakland-East Bay,
Philadelphia, Raleigh-Durham, Richmond, San Diego
Columbus, Long Island, Orlando,
Washington, DC
Dallas, San Francisco Peninsula
Charlotte, Chicago, Cincinnati, Fairfield County, Fort
Lauderdale, San Antonio, St. Louis, Westchester County
Houston, San Francisco, Silicon Valley
West Palm Beach
Cleveland, Minneapolis, Orange County, Phoenix
New Jersey
Baltimore, Detroit, Hampton Roads, Kansas City,
Sacramento
New York, Portland
Austin, Pittsburgh, Seattle-Bellevue
Boston, Denver
Source: JLL Research
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
CBDs remain in the lead, with falling vacancy pushing rents in
cores of San Francisco, Houston and Portland up 4.0 percent
Atlanta, Jacksonville, Philadelphia
Boston, New York (Midtown), Tampa,
United States
Seattle, Miami
Charlotte, Dallas, Fort Lauderdale, Los Angeles,
Milwaukee, Orlando, Westchester County
Austin, Houston
Baltimore, Sacramento,
West Palm Beach
Kansas City, New York (Downtown),
Phoenix, Richmond, San Antonio
Fairfield County, Indianapolis, Minneapolis
Columbus, San Diego,
Washington, DC
Pittsburgh, Portland, San Jose CBD
Chicago, Cleveland,
Oakland CBD, Raleigh-Durham
New York (Midtown South), San Francisco
Denver
Cincinnati, Detroit
Salt Lake City
St. Louis
Source: JLL Research
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
The suburbs are also on the rise, having witnessed quarterly rent
growth of 3.6 percent year-on-year
Cleveland, Jacksonville, Long Island (Nassau),
Milwaukee, Orange County, Portland, St. Louis,
United States
Denver, Indianapolis, Tampa
Chicago, Detroit, Miami,
Northern Delaware
Long Island (Suffolk)
Dallas, Silicon Valley
Atlanta, Baltimore, Bellevue (non-CBD), Boston,
East Bay, Lehigh Valley, Philadelphia, San Diego, Seattle
Houston, San Francisco (non-CBD)
Northern and Central New Jersey,
Northern Virginia, Orlando,
Suburban Maryland, West Palm BeachCincinnati, Fairfield County, Hampton Roads (South), Minneapolis,
Oakland Suburbs, Sacramento, San Antonio, Westchester County
Cambridge, San Francisco Peninsula
Charlotte, Fort Lauderdale, Hampton Roads
(Peninsula), Kansas City, Raleigh-Durham
Phoenix, Richmond, Salt Lake City
Austin, Los Angeles
Pittsburgh
Bellevue CBD
Southern New Jersey
Source: JLL Research
After spiking, CBD rents fall due to removals of quality space;
suburban rents on the up quarterly and are more stable
42
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterlyrentgrowth(%)
CBD rent growth Suburban rent growth
Source: JLL Research
CBD average: 0.9%
Suburban average: 0.2%
As a result of drops in CBDs due to removals and steady
improvement in the suburbs, the gap has narrowed by $0.27 per
square foot
43
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Averageaskingrent($p.s.f)
CBD Suburbs
Source: JLL Research
$11.36
$15.59
A similar trend has emerged regarding the Class A premium vs.
overall rents, which is down $0.05 per square foot to $4.97 per
square foot compared to Q1
44
$3.40
$3.49 $3.49
$3.53
$3.68
$3.81
$3.97 $3.99
$4.21
$4.26
$4.37 $4.38
$4.86
$4.71
$4.82
$4.76
$4.97
$4.92
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ClassApremium($p.s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
After jumping up earlier in the year, concessions have flatlined of
late
45
3.5
4.1
5.1
6.1 6.2
5.7
5.5
5.3 5.3
$23.00
$24.00
$25.00
$26.00
$27.00
$28.00
$29.00
$30.00
$31.00
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TIallowance($p.s.f.)
Freemonthsofrent
Free months of rent TI allowance ($ p.s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
New supply coming to market is slowly increasing, but still well
below historic norms
46
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Completions(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Average annual completions
The vast majority of new completions are Class A, the majority
of which is arriving in suburban markets rather than CBDs
47
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014
YTDcompletions(s.f.)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD)
Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
Construction volumes jumped 38.4 percent compared to YE
2013, led by Houston
48
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Underconstruction(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
The majority of new construction is now in suburbs rather than
CBDs and the share continues to grow thanks to Silicon Valley,
Dallas, Austin and Houston, in particular
49
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Shareofconstruction
CBD Suburbs
Source: JLL Research
35.3 percent of markets reported an increase in construction starts
over the quarter…
50
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Up Neutral Down
Source: JLL Research
…resulting in almost 21.0 million square feet of starts during the
first half of the year, nearly equivalent to all of 2013’s starts
51
11,843,789
18,490,244
17,558,896
22,251,850
20,986,559
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014
Constructionstarts(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Houston once again leads construction starts, with Silicon Valley
and Washington, DC close behind
52
2,545,988
1,982,305
1,579,746
743,205
648,170
358,000 321,000
247,836 242,969 188,968
118,000 100,000 60,000 32,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Constructionstarts(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Strong preleasing activity is helping new developments go ahead,
but is also reducing the ability to ease supply constraints
53
Source: JLL Research
San Francisco: 65.0%
Washington, DC: 44.0%
New York: 54.6%
Chicago: 41.8%
Atlanta: 55.0%
Houston: 55.5%
Seattle: 65.0%
Most landlords and investors of U.S. office
product are optimistic about the recovery
across most markets, but more pessimistic in
terms of placing all of their capital allocations
ahead. Already challenges have developed for
capital allocation in many coastal gateways
and we are seeing the same yield compression
and broader buyer pool develop in more
adjusted risk-adjustment segments too recently.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2014
John Sikaitis
Managing Director – Office and Local Markets Research
+1 202 719 5839
John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Research Analyst, Office and Economy Research
+1 202 719 6295
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
>> Click to access our complete report on the
current state of the U.S. office market

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U.S. office market statistics: Q2 2014

  • 1. U.S. office sector posts highest quarterly absorption of the recovery United States Office Review Q2 2014
  • 2. Rents are running away from tenants in urbanized quality cores with level of increase expected to escalate due to capital demand (investment sales) having just as big of an impact on rent growth over the next 24 months as leasing demand due to increasingly bullish underwriting projections from sales / refinancings.
  • 3. Fundamentals are tightening across markets, particularly absorption and development 2 Source: JLL Research Leasing activity • Q2 posted 61.9 million square feet of leasing activity. • Leasing levels up 6.2 percent from Q1 2014. • Compared to Q2 2013, leasing volume is up 0.2 percent. Absorption • Absorption levels increase, resulting in the 17th consecutive quarter of occupancy growth. • The 13.9 million square feet of net absorption during Q2 represents the highest quarterly occupancy growth during this cycle so far. • This quarter’s biggest contributors to absorption were New York, Boston, Houston, Chicago, Philadelphia Seattle, Los Angeles and San Francisco. Vacancy • Vacancy dropped by 30 basis points to a recovery low of 16.3 percent. This comes after two quarters at 16.6 percent. • Both CBDs and suburbs played a role in this decline, falling to 13.7 percent and 18.0 percent, respectively. Rents • Despite improved market conditions, asking rents declined by 0.7 percent to $30.00 per square foot. This was mostly the result of blocks of quality Class A space being taken off the market in many markets, compounded with falling rents and elevated vacancy in Washington, DC. • In supply-constrained CBDs, this was more pronounced, as rents fell by 1.0 percent. In the suburbs, asking rents increased slightly to $24.23 per square foot. Construction • YTD construction starts have totaled almost 21.0 million square feet. This is nearly equal to all starts posted in 2013. • Although Houston remains the leader in construction, 18 markets registered more than 1.0 million square feet as volumes have jumped by 38.4 percent to 65.4 million square feet nationally.
  • 4. Nearly half of all markets (49.0 percent) reported an increase in leasing activity in Q2 compared to Q1 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Up Neutral Down Source: JLL Research
  • 5. In turn, leasing volumes rose by 6.2 percent to 61.9 million square feet after two consecutive quarters of declines 4 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Leasingactivity(s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 6. While 0.2 percent higher than Q2 2013 leasing activity, this was slightly below the Q2 average since 2007 5 62,856,296 62,499,312 54,446,297 66,724,307 67,948,333 63,411,335 61,762,387 61,906,383 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 Q2 2007 Q2 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Leasing activity (s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 7. Outside of top markets, leasing activity relatively even across geographies, similar to previous quarters 6 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000 NewYork Chicago Washington,DC LosAngeles Boston Philadelphia Dallas SanFrancisco OrangeCounty NewJersey Denver SanDiego Seattle Phoenix SiliconValley Houston Minneapolis Portland St.Louis FairfieldCounty Austin Charlotte Detroit Baltimore Oakland-EastBay Indianapolis Miami Pittsburgh SanFranciscoPeninsula Atlanta Sacramento KansasCity Tampa Cincinnati HamptonRoads Cleveland Columbus Raleigh-Durham Orlando WestchesterCounty Jacksonville FortLauderdale WestPalmBeach Milwaukee LongIsland SaltLakeCity SanAntonio Richmond Leasingactivity(s.f.) Source: JLL Research 38.9% 20.6% 40.5%
  • 8. Q2 represents highest quarterly absorption throughout the recovery so far (13.9 million square feet) 7 -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quarterlynetabsorption(as%ofinventory) Source: JLL Research 15-year trailing annual average
  • 9. As a result, YTD absorption represents roughly 56.4 percent of last year’s occupancy gains 8 -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTDnetabsorption(as%ofinventory) Source: JLL Research 15-year trailing annual average
  • 10. Class A space, both in CBDs and suburbs, continues to lead the way in take-up of space 9 -10,000,000 -5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quarterlynetabsorption(s.f.) Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) Source: JLL Research
  • 11. Although tech and energy continue to make strong gains in absolute terms, their share of absorption is decreasing as the recovery gains momentum elsewhere 10 Source: JLL Research NYC and DC (*excludes Midtown South) Tech markets (*includes Midtown South) Energy markets Sunbelt All other markets 70.0% 29.7% 6.4% 2010 5.1% 33.5% 19.0% 18.4% 23.9% 2011 5.1% 33.5% 19.0% 18.4% 23.9% 2012 11.1% 21.6% 22.3% 18.6% 26.4% 2013 7.5% 25.2% 16.7% 24.6% 26.0% 2014
  • 12. Only nine markets have experienced a net loss of occupancy YTD, of which less than half are more than -200,000 square feet 11 -1,000,000 -500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 NewYork Houston Atlanta Boston SiliconValley LosAngeles Phoenix Denver Chicago Seattle-Bellevue Baltimore Dallas OrangeCounty SanFrancisco Charlotte Portland Detroit Miami Philadelphia St.Louis SaltLakeCity Milwaukee Raleigh-Durham WestPalmBeach Cincinnati FortLauderdale FairfieldCounty SanFranciscoPeninsula LongIsland KansasCity Minneapolis Austin Sacramento Columbus Indianapolis Cleveland SanDiego HamptonRoads Oakland-EastBay Jacksonville SanAntonio TampaBay WestchesterCounty Pittsburgh Richmond Orlando NewJersey Washington,DC YTDnetabsorption(s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 13. Energy, tech and Sunbelt markets all posting above-average absorption; Sunbelt surpassing energy in some cases 12 0.5% 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 2.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% YTDnetabsorption(s.f.) Source: JLL Research Energy Tech Sunbelt U.S. average
  • 14. Gains in NYC, Boston and much of the Sunbelt push up East Coast to top share of absorption during Q2 13 -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Shareofquarterlynetabsorption East Coast Central West Coast Source: JLL Research
  • 15. Even though Atlanta and South Florida are nearing 2013 absorption levels already, rest of the East Coast is catching up 14 Source: JLL Research -10,000,000 -5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Netabsorption(s.f.) Atlanta South Florida Rest of the East Coast
  • 16. -3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Netabsorption(s.f.) Atlanta Chicago Los Angeles Miami Philadelphia Phoenix Diversified markets hit another recovery high with 3.1 million square feet of occupancy gains, this quarter led by Chicago 15 Source: JLL Research Atlanta and Phoenix have absorbed a combined 13.0 million square feet since 2010, or 65.1 percent of cumulative total.
  • 17. Quarterly Class B absorption over the past four quarters is taking place 3.4x faster than from 2010 to Q2 2013… 16 Source: JLL Research 10,975,302 10,604,042 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 2010-Q2 2013 Past four quarters ClassBnetabsorption(s.f.) 783,950 s.f. per quarter 2,651,011 s.f. per quarter
  • 18. …although 5.8x as much Trophy and Class A space has been absorbed than B and C during the same time period 17 Source: JLL Research Trophy and Class A net absorption 118.4 m.s.f.2010-2014 Class B and C net absorption 20.5 m.s.f.2011-2014
  • 19. Class A space saw its highest share of quarterly absorption this quarter since Q2 2012 18 133.5% 93.9% 74.5% 76.3% 295.2% 98.5% 82.0% 78.3% 45.2% 73.4% 63.5% 80.9% 57.3% 82.3% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 250.0% 300.0% 350.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption Source: JLL Research
  • 20. At the same time, all total net absorption took place in Class A space during Q2 19 166.2% 90.4% 88.8% 80.8% 100.0% 106.1% 74.8% 0.0% 88.1% 86.5% 49.6% 92.0% 48.8% 100.9% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% 180.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption Source: JLL Research
  • 21. Although higher than in Q1 2014, suburbs display the opposite, trend, with only two-thirds of absorption in Class A space in Q2 20 116.9% 97.9% 62.3% 75.1% 167.8% 102.5% 84.3% 85.3% 43.2% 73.4% 72.8% 70.3% 61.1% 67.6% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% 180.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption Source: JLL Research
  • 22. Limited Class A options, particularly for larger tenants, have boosted YTD Class B absorption in certain CBDs 21 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Milwaukee Oakland CBD Greenwich CBD Atlanta Phoenix Silicon Valley CBD YTDCBDClassBnetabsorption(%ofinventory) Source: JLL Research U.S. average
  • 23. Still, Class A continues to trump Class B according to most indicators 22 Source: JLL Research of absorbed space in 2014 has been Class A per square foot difference between Class A and B space… rate at which Class A rates are growing compared to Class B year-on-year difference between Class A and Class B total vacancy
  • 24. Due to high levels of take-up, total vacancy fell by 579,661 square feet over the quarter to 16.3 percent, or 30 basis points 23 15.0% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5% 17.0% 17.5% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Totalvacancy(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 25. Still, vacancy levels remain closer to historical highs than lows 24 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Totalvacancy(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 26. Total vacancy is stable or declining in all segments of the market; CBD Class A experiences largest drop (-50 basis points) 25 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Totalvacancy(%) Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) Source: JLL Research
  • 27. Industry Real estate footprint Most affected markets State government Contracting California, Illinois, New Jersey Federal government Contracting Washington, DC Media/print Contracting LA, NYC Finance/banking Contracting NYC, Charlotte, Chicago, Palm Beach, Pittsburgh Law firms Contracting (rightsizing) Washington, DC, NYC, SF, Atlanta, LA Consulting Contracting (rightsizing) NYC, Chicago, Washington, DC Accounting Contracting (rightsizing) Chicago, NYC, LA Telecom Stable NJ, Dallas, Atlanta Retail/consumer goods Stable NYC, Atlanta, Los Angeles Education Growing Everywhere Media (digital and TV) Growing Atlanta, NYC, LA, Philadelphia, Washington, DC Green energy/clean technology Growing Pittsburgh, Silicon Valley, Denver Real estate (residential) Growing Southern CA, Nevada, AZ, FL, GA, Carolinas Technology Growing Silicon Valley, San Francisco, Austin, Seattle, Portland, Midtown South NYC, Cambridge, MA Shared office space providers / co-working spaces Growing All markets particularly coastal markets and Chicago Natural gas/oil/energy Growing Denver, Houston, Dallas, Pittsburgh Biotech/pharmaceutical Growing San Francisco, San Diego, NJ/Phil, Boston, RDU Office growth being driven by atypical tenant industries 26 Source: JLL Research
  • 28. Demographics and technology are driving productivity and utilization and the next evolution of office space use 27 Source: JLL Research 15% space reduction by U.S. law firms and financial services relocating 72% of global CREs plan to aggressively increase density in next 3 years 150 Square-foot-per- employee average target density, down from 225 in 2009 50% of the U.S. workforce was baby boomers in 2010. Gen Y will be 50% by 2020
  • 29. Many of these changes show stark pre- and post-recession contrasts 28 Source: JLL Research Floor plates Floor plates are up from 25,000 square feet before the recession to 60,000 square feet. Personal space Before the recession, employees had around 300 s.f. per person; now they have 200 s.f. Interaction Employees have gone from rarely running into others to a nine-in-ten change of bumping into a coworker. Building features Aesthetic and building features such as increased roof heights and floor-to-ceiling windows are “in.”
  • 30. And, as a result, law firms are shifting 29 Source: JLL Research 15.2% Giveback by law firm across the U.S. when relocating 20.5% Giveback by law firm across the top seven U.S. markets when relocating 24.7% Giveback by law firm across DC when relocating • Going digital • Elimination of law libraries • One-sized fits all office • Higher administrative ratios • Migration to glass boxes • Migration to long and lean • Migration to smaller floorplates
  • 31. Consulting and accounting are shifting 30 Source: JLL Research 25.0% Giveback by consulting firms across the U.S. when relocating 225 s.f. Average space per consultant in years past 90 s.f. Average space per consultant in the most efficient firms today • Benching • Work flexibly and client officing • Offices gone, collaboration rooms in • Increasingly looking at new construction to meet efficiency standards • Industry giving back most space
  • 32. Technology companies are shifting 31 Source: JLL Research 22.0% Percent increase in high-tech service jobs since 2009 13.6% Total vacancy in core tech markets, compared to 16.3 percent nation-wide 2.2% Growth in core tech market rents in 2014 • Benching is standard • Less personal space, more shared and amenity space • “Open hangar” design preferred • Migration to Class B+ with character • Space viewed as core to culture • Remote work is waning
  • 33. Banks are shifting 32 Source: JLL Research 10.1% Give-back by average bank across the U.S. when renewing (flat headcount) 86.0% Percent of banking transactions that no longer need a teller 66.0% Percent of surveyed banks planning to reduce CRE footprint • Regulation and cost pressures forcing portfolio consolidation • Offices shrinking • Business units competing • Branch reductions common • Increasing importance of back office (second- and third-tier markets) • Remote working increasing
  • 34. Even the federal government is shifting 33 Source: JLL Research 170 s.f. Target utilization rate per employee for federally leased space $1.7 billion Amount spent annually by the GSA for properties deemed underutilized 15.9% Average give-back by GSA across Metro DC in FY 2013 • Telecommuting • Benching • Co-locations • Minimal funds to implement • Consolidations in low cost buildings/submarkets • Migration to off-center locations • Disposition of underutilized assets.
  • 35. As office-using employment increases by 199,000 net new jobs, vacancy declines to 16.3 percent 34 15.0% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5% 17.0% 17.5% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0% 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500 30,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 Totalvacancy(%) Office-usingemployment(thousands) Office-using employment (thousands) Total vacancy (%) Source: JLL Research
  • 36. CBD and suburban vacancy both inch downward, this quarter to 13.7 percent and 18.0 percent, respectively 35 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% 23.0% Totalvacancy(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 37. Following declines in total and direct vacancy, sublease space falls to 53.7 million square feet, or 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter 36 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 100,000,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Subleasespace(s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 38. After 13 consecutive quarters of growth, rents decline slightly due to Class A space removals and drops in Washington, DC and Downtown Manhattan 37 -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quarterlyrentgrowth(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 39. Year-on-year, rents are still rising faster than before, up 2.7 and 1.7 percent for Class A and B space, respectively 38 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Averageaskingrents($p.s.f.) Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) Source: JLL Research
  • 40. U.S. office market continues to move along the clock as fewer available options exist for tenants, spurring development Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Atlanta, Indianapolis, Jacksonville Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, Tampa, United States Miami, Milwaukee, Oakland-East Bay, Philadelphia, Raleigh-Durham, Richmond, San Diego Columbus, Long Island, Orlando, Washington, DC Dallas, San Francisco Peninsula Charlotte, Chicago, Cincinnati, Fairfield County, Fort Lauderdale, San Antonio, St. Louis, Westchester County Houston, San Francisco, Silicon Valley West Palm Beach Cleveland, Minneapolis, Orange County, Phoenix New Jersey Baltimore, Detroit, Hampton Roads, Kansas City, Sacramento New York, Portland Austin, Pittsburgh, Seattle-Bellevue Boston, Denver Source: JLL Research
  • 41. Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase CBDs remain in the lead, with falling vacancy pushing rents in cores of San Francisco, Houston and Portland up 4.0 percent Atlanta, Jacksonville, Philadelphia Boston, New York (Midtown), Tampa, United States Seattle, Miami Charlotte, Dallas, Fort Lauderdale, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Orlando, Westchester County Austin, Houston Baltimore, Sacramento, West Palm Beach Kansas City, New York (Downtown), Phoenix, Richmond, San Antonio Fairfield County, Indianapolis, Minneapolis Columbus, San Diego, Washington, DC Pittsburgh, Portland, San Jose CBD Chicago, Cleveland, Oakland CBD, Raleigh-Durham New York (Midtown South), San Francisco Denver Cincinnati, Detroit Salt Lake City St. Louis Source: JLL Research
  • 42. Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase The suburbs are also on the rise, having witnessed quarterly rent growth of 3.6 percent year-on-year Cleveland, Jacksonville, Long Island (Nassau), Milwaukee, Orange County, Portland, St. Louis, United States Denver, Indianapolis, Tampa Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Northern Delaware Long Island (Suffolk) Dallas, Silicon Valley Atlanta, Baltimore, Bellevue (non-CBD), Boston, East Bay, Lehigh Valley, Philadelphia, San Diego, Seattle Houston, San Francisco (non-CBD) Northern and Central New Jersey, Northern Virginia, Orlando, Suburban Maryland, West Palm BeachCincinnati, Fairfield County, Hampton Roads (South), Minneapolis, Oakland Suburbs, Sacramento, San Antonio, Westchester County Cambridge, San Francisco Peninsula Charlotte, Fort Lauderdale, Hampton Roads (Peninsula), Kansas City, Raleigh-Durham Phoenix, Richmond, Salt Lake City Austin, Los Angeles Pittsburgh Bellevue CBD Southern New Jersey Source: JLL Research
  • 43. After spiking, CBD rents fall due to removals of quality space; suburban rents on the up quarterly and are more stable 42 -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quarterlyrentgrowth(%) CBD rent growth Suburban rent growth Source: JLL Research CBD average: 0.9% Suburban average: 0.2%
  • 44. As a result of drops in CBDs due to removals and steady improvement in the suburbs, the gap has narrowed by $0.27 per square foot 43 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Averageaskingrent($p.s.f) CBD Suburbs Source: JLL Research $11.36 $15.59
  • 45. A similar trend has emerged regarding the Class A premium vs. overall rents, which is down $0.05 per square foot to $4.97 per square foot compared to Q1 44 $3.40 $3.49 $3.49 $3.53 $3.68 $3.81 $3.97 $3.99 $4.21 $4.26 $4.37 $4.38 $4.86 $4.71 $4.82 $4.76 $4.97 $4.92 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ClassApremium($p.s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 46. After jumping up earlier in the year, concessions have flatlined of late 45 3.5 4.1 5.1 6.1 6.2 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.3 $23.00 $24.00 $25.00 $26.00 $27.00 $28.00 $29.00 $30.00 $31.00 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TIallowance($p.s.f.) Freemonthsofrent Free months of rent TI allowance ($ p.s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 47. New supply coming to market is slowly increasing, but still well below historic norms 46 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Completions(s.f.) Source: JLL Research Average annual completions
  • 48. The vast majority of new completions are Class A, the majority of which is arriving in suburban markets rather than CBDs 47 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014 YTDcompletions(s.f.) Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) Source: JLL Research
  • 49. Construction volumes jumped 38.4 percent compared to YE 2013, led by Houston 48 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Underconstruction(s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 50. The majority of new construction is now in suburbs rather than CBDs and the share continues to grow thanks to Silicon Valley, Dallas, Austin and Houston, in particular 49 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Shareofconstruction CBD Suburbs Source: JLL Research
  • 51. 35.3 percent of markets reported an increase in construction starts over the quarter… 50 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Up Neutral Down Source: JLL Research
  • 52. …resulting in almost 21.0 million square feet of starts during the first half of the year, nearly equivalent to all of 2013’s starts 51 11,843,789 18,490,244 17,558,896 22,251,850 20,986,559 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014 Constructionstarts(s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 53. Houston once again leads construction starts, with Silicon Valley and Washington, DC close behind 52 2,545,988 1,982,305 1,579,746 743,205 648,170 358,000 321,000 247,836 242,969 188,968 118,000 100,000 60,000 32,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 Constructionstarts(s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 54. Strong preleasing activity is helping new developments go ahead, but is also reducing the ability to ease supply constraints 53 Source: JLL Research San Francisco: 65.0% Washington, DC: 44.0% New York: 54.6% Chicago: 41.8% Atlanta: 55.0% Houston: 55.5% Seattle: 65.0%
  • 55. Most landlords and investors of U.S. office product are optimistic about the recovery across most markets, but more pessimistic in terms of placing all of their capital allocations ahead. Already challenges have developed for capital allocation in many coastal gateways and we are seeing the same yield compression and broader buyer pool develop in more adjusted risk-adjustment segments too recently.
  • 56. COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2014 John Sikaitis Managing Director – Office and Local Markets Research +1 202 719 5839 John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst, Office and Economy Research +1 202 719 6295 Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com >> Click to access our complete report on the current state of the U.S. office market