This is the textbook presentation slides made by students from the course Management of Technology taught in fall 2011 at the Department of Business Administration, National Taiwan University. The textbook used is Strategic Management of Technological Innovation 3rd Edition by Melissa A. Schilling, New York University.

1. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
Chapter 07
選擇創新專案
Presented by Group 06
B97701211 廖文凱
B97701215 黃冠隆
B97701231 何 欣
B97701248 葉仁智
Course Lecturer: Prof. J. T. Chiang
Teaching Assistant: Hsuan-Yi Wu (Jen)
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 1

2. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
AGENDA
• 概要
• 研發預算
• 選擇專案的量化方法
• 選擇專案的質化方法
• 結合量化與質化資訊
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 2

3. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
概要
• 開發專案昂貴費時，且大多具有風險，公司必須
審慎的選擇出值得投資的專案。
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 3

4. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
研發預算
• 在資本限額下，公司必須在多個有價值的專案中
作出選擇。在不同產業中，公司投入研發的資源
也有所差異。
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 4

5. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
選擇專案的量化方法
• 折現現金流量法
– 評估已知風險下，未來預期的收益是否可支持支出
– 最常用的兩個方法
• 淨現值法 (Net Present Value)
• 內部報酬率 (Internal Return Rate)
• 實質選擇權 (Real Options)
– 以股票選擇權的財務模型來評估專案價值
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 5

6. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
淨現值法(NPV)
• 淨現值 = 目前的現金流入價值 – 目前的現金流出價值
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 6

7. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
內部報酬率(IRR)
• 內部報酬率是使投資淨現值為零的折線率
• 將IRR與所需的報酬率做比較便可做為決定是否投
資的衡量準則
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 7

8. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
實質選擇權
• 股票買權(Call Option)：投資者擁有在未來以特
定價格購買股票的權利。
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 8

9. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
實質選擇權
• 開發專案的成本可視為買權價格
• 未來投資於開發專案的成本可視為履約價格
• 研發投資的報酬類似買權的股票價格
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 9

10. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
選擇專案的質化方法
• 過濾問題
• 整合性專案規劃架構
• Q分類
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 10

11. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
過濾問題
• 討論專案的潛在成本與利益
• 消費者的角色
– 市場、使用、相容性和易於使用性、銷售與定價
• 能力角色
– 既有能力、競爭者的能力、未來能力
• 專案的時機與成本
– 時機、成本因素
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 11

12. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
整合性專案規劃架構
• 許多公司發現，根據風險程度、資源投入與現金
流量時機等因素來分析歸納研發投資組合是有價
值的
• 使用專案地圖可將開發專案分成四種類型
– 先進研發型專案、突破型專案、平台型專案、衍生型
專案
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 12

13. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
專案地圖
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 13

14. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
專案地圖
• 先進研發型專案
– 是商業化開發專案的前導，為開發領先的策略性科技之必要
因素
• 突破型專案
– 是涉及革命性新產品和製程技術的產品開發專案
• 平台型專案
– 提供比前一世代科技在成本、品質和效能上較基本的改善
• 衍生型專案
– 為產品或流程的漸進改良
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 14

15. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
Q分類
• Q分類是一種針對不同構面的對象或概念進行排
序的簡單方法
• 群體根據個人對專案的看法進行多次的討論，可
以對最佳專案達成共識
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 15

16. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
結合量化與質化資訊
• 聯合分析
• 資料包絡分析法
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 16

17. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
聯合分析
• 最常用來評估不同產品屬性對消費者的相對重要
性，將這些價質運用於開發和定價決策上
• 聯合分析將權重以統計方式推演出來，使複雜且
具決定性之主觀評估分解成不同指標下相對重要
的量化分數
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 17

18. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
聯合分析
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 18

19. Department of Business Administration Strategic Management of Technological Innovation
College of Management Melissa A. Schilling, New York University
資料包絡分析法
• 評估潛在專案的方法，是一種根據多元決策指標，
並將這些指標與假設的效率前緣線進行比較之專
案排序方法
2011/11/1 Fall 2011 BAA Management of Technology 19