1. Gas Development Master Plan
Structure of the Demand and Supply Scenarios (DASS) Component
Capacity Building Workshop
Bali, 1-2 July 2013

2. 2
Presentation Outline
• Outline of the Demand and Supply Scenario (DASS)
• Descriptions of each part of DASS:
– Input sheets
– Control panel
– Calculations sheets
– Outputs and results

3. 3
Outline of DASS
INPUT DATA
Supply input sheet
Demand input
sheet
Global parameter
sheet
CALCULATION
CONTROL
PANEL
Demand
calculation sheet
Supply calculation
sheet
OUTPUTS
Demand by region
and by sector
Annual
production by
region
TIM
Supply-demand
graph (initial)
SCENARIOS
Input from TIM
Adjustments
sheet
Revenue
calculation sheet
Supply-demand
graph (adjusted)
Government
revenue
Price input sheet
Price calculation
sheet
Export input sheet

4. 4
Input Sheets in DASS – Overview
INPUT DATA
Supply input
sheet
Demand
input sheet
Global
parameter
sheet
Price input
sheet
Export input
sheet
Key issues: selecting data to be used as parameters in the
model, and processing the raw data to match inputs
required in the model
Hard coded data sheets, some allows for different scenarios,
for example:
– Industrial demand has base case, low and high cases based on
MIGAS estimates of contracted, committed and potential
demand figures
– Base case, low and high cases for production profiles for each
region
– Different price scenarios based on IEA crude oil or based on
natural gas imports
– Different estimates for GDP growths and elasticity

5. 5
Input Sheets in DASS – Demand assumptions
INPUT DATA
Supply input
sheet
Demand
input sheet
Global
parameter
sheet
Price input
sheet
Export input
sheet
Power sector:
– Used PLN RUPTL gas demand
estimates up to 2020
– Projected to 2070 using
income elasticities
Other demand sectors:
– Used MIGAS gas balance for
demand estimates up to
2025
– Projected to 2070 using
income and price elasticites
and domestic gas price
growth

6. 6
Input Sheets in DASS – Export assumptions
INPUT DATA
Supply input
sheet
Demand
input sheet
Global
parameter
sheet
Price input
sheet
Export input
sheet
• Use MIGAS gas balance data on “contracted” export
volumes for each regions for up to 2025
• Projected to 2070 using assumed export growth rates,
differentiated between pipeline export and LNG
• These figures will be adjusted based on unmet demand
and excess supply from TIM

7. 7
Input Sheets in DASS – Supply assumptions
INPUT DATA
Supply input
sheet
Demand
input sheet
Global
parameter
sheet
Price input
sheet
Export input
sheet
• Using estimated production figures for each region for:
– Existing gas productions
– Gas production in development
– Potential gas development
• Estimates of low and high cases using assumed
percentages to reduce (for low case) or increase (for
high case) production

8. 8
Input Sheets in DASS – Price assumptions
INPUT DATA
Supply input
sheet
Demand
input sheet
Global
parameter
sheet
Price input
sheet
Export input
sheet
• Using data from:
– IEA world energy outlook as base data to calculate growth rate
– Use current domestic wholesale gas price
– Different growth rates scenarios can be chosen

9. 9
Input Sheets in DASS – Global parameters
INPUT DATA
Supply input
sheet
Demand
input sheet
Global
parameter
sheet
Price input
sheet
Export input
sheet
Hard coded inputs for parameters such as:
– Income elasticities
– GDP growth rates
– Price elasticities
Provides for three levels of scenarios: base case, low case
and high case

10. 10
Control Panel – Scenario Selection
CONTROL
PANEL
SCENARIOS A separate sheet where users can select demand,
production, price and policy scenarios
Dropdown menu to
select production
scenarios: base/low/high
Dropdown menu to select
demand scenarios:
base/low/high
Individual demand scenarios for
different demand sectors
Dropdown menu to
select price scenarios
Dropdown menu to
select policy scenario,
domestic or export
priority

11. 11
Calculations Sheets in DASS – Overview
CALCULATION
Demand
calculation
sheet
Supply
calculation
sheet
Adjustments
sheet
Revenue
calculation
sheet
Price
calculation
sheet
Key issues: some calculations need to be done in several
steps to avoid long complicated formulas
Different calculations sheets to calculate:
– Demand projection
– Export projection
– Production/supply projection
– Government revenues
Results are recorded in a separate sheet for either:
– Transfer to TIM, or
– Graphs representations

12. 12
Calculations Sheets in DASS
CALCULATION
Demand
calculation
sheet
Supply
calculation
sheet
Adjustments
sheet
Revenue
calculation
sheet
Price
calculation
sheet
Demand:
• Demand growth = income elasticity x GDP growth +
price elasticity x domestic price growth
Supply:
• Takes into account production and remaining reserves in
each regions
Government revenue =
Government revenue from exports –
Cost of unmet domestic demand +
Economic value of gas consumed

13. 13
Outputs of DASS – Initial Demand and Supply
OUTPUTS
Demand by
region and by
sector
Annual
production by
region
Supply-
demand graph
(initial)
Supply-
demand graph
(adjusted)
Government
revenue

14. 14
Outputs of DASS – Gas Balance before and
after
OUTPUTS
Demand by
region and by
sector
Annual
production by
region
Supply-
demand graph
(initial)
Supply-
demand graph
(adjusted)
Government
revenue
Grey area shows
excess supply
from this region After running TIM, excess
supply is now transferred
(purple bars) to other region(s)
TIM only runs
to 2040
If transfers exceed
production, could mean that
this region imports gas and
then transfer to other
region(s)
Example from Central and South Sumatera

15. 15
Outputs of DASS – Government Revenues
OUTPUTS
Demand by
region and by
sector
Annual
production by
region
Supply-
demand graph
(initial)
Supply-
demand graph
(adjusted)
Government
revenue
Discounted costs,
to 2050
Undiscounted costs, to
2070 – very large unmet
demand (depends on
scenario)