1. How the UK Could Stay in the EU
A Cunning Plan

2. The Referendum Result Must be Seen to be
Respected
• The option of Parliament simply ignoring the referendum result should
be rejected. This would simply make the obvious problem of disconnection
between citizens and Parliament, starkly revealed by the referendum
result, even worse. It is likely that a lot of MPs and Peers who supported
Remain would take this view.
• If the UK is to Remain in spite of the first referendum result, it will have
to be a result of a further vote by the British people. It is therefore
necessary to consider how this scenario could be brought about.
• Parliament (which before the referendum had a majority in both houses
for Remain) should therefore not say “no” to Leave, it should instead say
“yes, if” and then set relevant conditions.

3. The Process for Leaving
The formal process for leaving the EU involves Article 50 of the Treaty for the
Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). This says that:
a) “Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with
its own constitutional requirements” [my emphasis]
b) A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of
its decision
c) The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the entry into
force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the
notification referred to in paragraph 2.
So the first key question is: what are the relevant constitutional requirements for
the UK? It seems obvious that they would have to involve the consent of
Parliament.

4. Other Member States Pressing UK
• Over the weekend of 25/26 June, it was widely reported in the media
other Member States consider that the Prime Minister’s reporting the
referendum result to the Council would constitute formal notification.
• On the other hand, Cameron has said that it will be for his successor
to make this notification, after he or she takes office, most likely early
in September.
• There appears to be no justification in Article 50 for the Member
States to claim that a simple report of the referendum result to the
European Council constitutes formal notification.

5. Parliament Must Assert its Sovereignty
The first essential step is for Parliament to assert its sovereign right to make the
decision on notification.
This would presumably need to take the form of a Bill. Bills can be amended, in this case with the
aim of giving negotiating instructions to the new Prime Minister and Government on Parliament’s
expectations for a withdrawal agreement. These could consist of at least:
• A clear expression Parliament’s intent that the UK should at least remain in the single market (the
“Norway option”)
• A requirement for special arrangements for Northern Ireland.
• An additional option might be some special arrangements for Scotland, but it seems likely that
any plausible arrangements in the context of Leave would not satisfy the majority of Scottish
voters and would therefore be unlikely to help secure a No vote in a second Scottish referendum
on independence.

6. Justification of Conditions
The single market requirement could be justified on the following grounds
• 48% of voters opted for Remain, and their position needs to be considered. The single
market option represents the best synthesis of the Leave and Remain positions, giving
primacy to Leave but ensuring a continuing close relationship with the EU and Member
States
• The Leave campaign was not clear on what arrangements it favoured in the event of
withdrawal, and offered at least three options, including membership of the single
market
• (Farage said that in the event of a close vote for Remain another referendum would be
appropriate, and Johnson floated the idea of two referenda: these are more polemical
points than substantive ones)
Special arrangements for Northern Ireland could be justified in view of the importance of
EU membership (of both the UK the Republic) to the peace settlement, and given the fact
that the Northern Ireland electors voted to remain.

7. Parliament Should Timetable Further
Debate
Parliament should require the Government to report on
progress of negotiations, some fixed period (a year?) before
the entry into force of withdrawal.
If the negotiating objectives set by Parliament are not
achieved, then Parliament should consider what further steps
to take, including the option of calling another referendum.

8. What if the EU Agrees on Single Market?
• If the other Member States agree with single market
membership, then the democratic choice would be to allow
UK withdrawal on that basis (since this would represent a fair
outcome from the first referendum).
• But in fact this is quite unlikely, and Member States might be
encouraged by a Parliamentary decision as set out in
paragraph 8 to be more resistant to single market
membership.

9. What if Notification Doesn’t Need a Bill?
• If a UK notification decision does not require a Bill,
then other means must be found for expressing
Parliament’s intentions (resolutions?).
• An early priority should be to establish through expert
advice (particularly the clerks) exactly how the
notification decision could be taken through
Parliament.

10. Withdrawal of Notification
• The second key question is: could notice of
withdrawal be withdrawn by the UK before any
Article 50 agreement is reached or the two year
period expires, and if so could this be done
unilaterally by the UK or whether it would require
the consent of other Member States?
• Since Article 50 has never been used before, this is far
from clear.

11. Rebellious Scots
•It would be useful to time decisions in this
process to produce a final result in advance
of a second referendum on Scottish
independence, since this is much more likely
to result a No vote if the UK stays in the EU.

12. Do the Preparation NOW!
•Work on the details of how this could be
achieved – particularly in respect of the
Parliamentary process – needs to begin
NOW.
•The dysfunctional state of both major UK
Parties is no excuse for inaction.

13. Text of Article 50 of the TFEU
Text of Article 50: TFEU (Our underlining)
1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines
provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the
arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement
shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be
concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European
Parliament.
3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or,
failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the
Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the
withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions
concerning it.
A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European
Union.
5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in
Article 49.