Presentation about how UK foresight has dealt with the sorts of big issue that are known in Europe as "Grand Challenges".

1. O
Manchester
MIIR
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Grand Challenges and
UK Foresight
Ian Miles
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, MBS, UK
and Research Laboratory for the Economics of Innovation, HSE, Moscow)
September 2012
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

2. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Grand Challenges
Research • Water security and vulnerability
• Energy security and vulnerability
• Health, illness, well being 21 Grand Challenges –
• Sustainability and climate change major problem areas,
• Ageing and demographic issues where interdisciplinary
• Food security and culture research is required- for
• Globalization and localization EU identified in “ERA
• Social cohesion and diversity Toolkit” at
• Technological security, hazard & risk
• Consumption and behavioural http://community.iknowfutures.eu/
change
•
Globally, pervasive
Innovation, knowledge & technology
• problems include: Climate
Work-life balance and mental health
• Science, technology, ethics Change; Demographics/
• Crime, security, justice Ageing/ Health; Security of
• Water/Energy/Food
Governance, democracy, citizenship
Multi- • Coexistence and conflict Supplies.
• Social pathologies and ethics Grand Challenges involve
disciplinary
• Social exclusion, poverty, affluence
Problems not so much Grand
• Economic prosperity and dynamics
•
Solutions, as
Urban and rural dynamics
• Education and skills dynamics Great Multi-
Responses Stakeholder
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012 Responses

3. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
“We don’t do Grand Challenges”
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

4. O
Manchester
MIIR
Institute of
We do do Foresight
3 Cycles, 18 years of the National Foresight Programme
Innovation
Research
Much documentation on website, http://www.foresight.gov.uk
though some older material has been discarded
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

5. O
Manchester
MIIR
Institute of
We do do Foresight
Innovation
Research
Foresight and related activities well beyond Programme
The are also many regional and
Foresight nongovernmental activities
Programme
Strategy
DGRC Unit
projects
Research
Council projects DEFRA Government
RC & TSB “horizon departments
prioritisation scanning”
NHS,HSE
horizon Risk
scanning Agency
More STI oriented
More STI oriented More policy innovation oriented
More policy innovation oriented
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012 (Little social innovation)
(Little social innovation)

6. O
Manchester
First Cycle (1990s) Foresight
MIIR
Institute of
Innovation
Panels: Mix of technology and “demand”
Research
• ANRIE Agriculture, Horticulture & Forestry
S&T •  Natural Resources & Environment
users •
Marine
• Leisure & Learning
• Food & Drink
• Retail & Distribution
• Transport
• Financial Services
• Defence & Aerospace
• Health & Life Sciences
• Manufacturing, Production & Business Processes
• Chemicals
• Construction
S&T • Energy
producers All sectors examined drivers
• Materials
of change, often involving
• IT, Electronics & Communications GCs for which they
Foresight – British Council/Argentinian Visitors February 2012 considered responses

7. O
Manchester <1/4 Steering Group Priorities
MIIR
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Key
Key
priority
priority
areas
areas
Attractiveness
Attractiveness
Inter-
Inter-
mediate
mediate
areas
areas
Emerging
Emerging
areas
areas
Feasibility
Feasibility
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

8. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
The Third Cycle (ongoing)
• Foresight relaunched in 2002.
• The role of UK Foresight Programme now is NOT
setting overall priorities.
• This is largely carried out in the public sphere by (1)
Research Councils [more basic research] and (2) the
Technology Strategy Board [more applied research].
Also (3) many government departments (ministries)
also fund research, especially DEFRA, DoH.
• The Foresight Programme runs projects, horizon-
scanning, plus some wider overviews
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

9. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Third Cycle
• Focused Foresight , which is NOT:
– setting overall priorities.
– (generally) a matter of assessing a wide spectrum of technologies.
– trying to “wire up” the innovation system overall
– run around a set of standing (sector/technology) panels
• At any one time there is a mix of projects (problem-driven
vs. technology-driven; starting vs. concluding)
• Aiming to:
– inform (not instruct) public and private research funders, policy
more generally
– address issues which cross government department boundaries –
“joined up government”
• Embedded; evaluated in 2007 as successful and value for
money.
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

10. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Third Cycle project focus
Research
• Projects range over
many areas of
“technology-push”
and
“demand-pull”.
• They vary in
organisation,
but typically:
– Aim to last 2 years (+)
– Pre-history:
will only launch only if
major stakeholder
can be located
who will engage with
and champion the
project
SEPT.2012
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

11. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Third Cycle - methods
Research
• Begin with initial scoping seminar,
• Literature and horizon scanning, in-house and external
support,
• State of science review
• Use of futures techniques (eg scenarios) deliberately to
avoid relying upon extrapolation or Business as Usual
• Limited roles of panels, strong roles for coordinator(s)
and key experts.
• Delivery target: overview, vision of what success will
look like, recommendations for action,
• Create/ mobilise Networks that are willing and able to
take recommendations forward
• One-year review of success after project official
completion (is this enough?)
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

12. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
3rd Cycle Approach
Research
• Get range of ideas, locate high-level support
• Limited roles for panels, strong roles for
coordinator(s) and key experts
• Begin with initial scoping seminar
• Literature and horizon scanning, in-house and
external support -> State of science review
• Develop scenarios and appraise opportunities
(success) - avoiding simple extrapolation or
Business as Usual
• Delivery target: overview, vision of what success
will look like, recommendations for action,
• Seek implementation through networks willing
and able to take recommendations forward
• One-year review of success after project official
completion (is this enough?)
• Impacts on broad policies, not just “classic” STI
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

13. DIID Roadmap - technology to identify & characterise
O
Manchester
MIIR
Institute of infectious diseases - designing smart swabs, hand-held or
portable devices to analyse fluids.
Innovation
Research
•Click to edit Master text styles
Second level
Third level
Fourth level
Fifth level
Foresight – British Council/Argentinian Visitors February 2012

14. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
DIID Impacts
Defra Biosecurity
R&D funding styles
•Click to edit Master text
Chip 2006-9 announcement
£1.5bn env/agr
2008: £55m over 5 years STI
Second level
International policy impacts – FAO summit
Third level agr
communique 2006, new Crisis Management Centre
Fourth level
- 25 African institutions collaboration in
Fifth level
SACIDS – “major funding from donors” agr/h
UK stakeholders – better awareness of
underlying challenges(s), and scope for
radical innovation Visitors February 2012
Foresight – British Council/Argentinian in future responses agr/h

15. O
Manchester
Other Foresight Programme Activities
MIIR
Institute of
Innovation
Research
• Foresight
Unit also
coordinates
horizon-
scanning
across UK
government
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

16. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Other Activities - 1
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

17. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Horizon Scanning and Other Activities
Research
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

18. O
Manchester Technology and Innovation Futures
MIIR
Institute of
Innovation
2010 (update Expert group:
Research
imminent) •Undertook interviews and workshops with 180
representatives from industry, research,
•international institutions and social enterprises
•Identified 53 technologies which are
•likely to be important to the UK in the 2020s,
(comparative advantages, future needs,
potential market size). “As the UK comes out of
the economic downturn, it seems likely that
future economic prosperity will derive in large
part from seizing opportunities offered by
technologies such as these.”
•53 technologies - 28 clusters – 7 cross-cutting
areas (But 4 main groups for workshops etc.)
1) Materials and Nanotechnologies; 2) Biotech and Pharmaceuticals; 3) Digital and
Networks, 4) Energy and Low Carbon - estimates of size of the potential market
in 2025, the disruptive potential of the technology, UK capability, and barriers and
enablers. Messages about IP.SMEs, skills, and need for roadmaps.
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012 Promoted by minister

19. O
Manchester
A Diverse Environment
MIIR
Institute of
Innovation
Research
• Overall (pure) S&T priority setting across areas is now the function
of an overarching body for Research Councils (RCUK). This selects
key areas to propose to HM Treasury. DGRC work feeds in here -
Foresight as rationale. Some RCs undertake own Foresight work
occasionally (e.g. ESRC Genomics Scenarios), or sponsor
programmes on “the future of...” (e.g. EPSRC “manufacturing”).
• TSB for innovation-oriented R&D - searching for tools?.
• Foresight activities have been underway continually and/or on
occasional basis in many locations, and many other parts of public
sector and government have taken this on board.
• Currently - limited use of Delphi-type methods in UK, though EU
development ongoing.
• The surprise is that so far much Foresight work has survived
severe cuts to public expenditure and social research in the UK.
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

20. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Priorities beyond Foresight
• The main applied
R&D mechanism in
the UK is the
Technology Strategy
Board, funding R&D
programmes and
Knowledge Transfer
Networks
http://www.innovateuk.org/
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

21. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Technology Strategy Board 2
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

22. O
Manchester
MIIR
Institute of
Resilience
Innovation
Research
and Risk
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

23. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
DEFRA
http://horizonscanning.defra.gov.uk/
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012

24. MIIR
O
Manchester
Institute of
Innovation
Research
Foresight and Grand Challenges
• Foresight is a way to bring together multi-
disciplinary” analysis of challenges, and multi-
stakeholder approaches to responses.
• In the UK it is embedded into the policy mix, but is
only part of the STI (and other) policy formation
process – varying across challenges and over time.
• Problems for democracy and technocracy in complex
societies: short-term (and ideological) decision
making, communication across boundaries.
• These are Grand Challenges FOR Foresight
European Foresight Platform Conference - September 2012