A presentation prepared by John Ingram for the workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008.

1. Climate change & variability and extreme events adaptation What are the challenges for agriculture research in assisting climate change / food security practice and policy? Presented by John Ingram (ESSP-GECAFS, University of Oxford) at the Workshop on Dealing with Drivers of Rapid Change in Africa: Integration of Lessons from Long-term Research on INRM, ILRI, Nairobi, June 12-13, 2008

2. Helps to consider 2 main aspects Role of agriculture in food systems (multiple functions)

4. Ecosystem services

6. Employment

7. Wealth

8. Social capital

9. Political capital

11. Allocation

12. Preference

13. Nutritional Value

14. Social Value

16. Distribution

17. ExchangeEricksen, P. Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research (GEC: 2007)

18. Helps to consider 2 main aspects Role of agriculture in food systems (multiple functions) Food systems in the context of drivers and feedbacks (multiple stressors and consequences)

19. Food Systems in context of drivers and feedbacks Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs Food System ACTIVITIES Producing Processing & Packaging Distributing & Retailing Consuming GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Food Security, Environmental Security, and other Societal Interests DRIVERS’Interactions Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Food Access Food Utilisation Food Availability Env Social Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion Zurek, M. & Ericksen, P. A Conceptual Framework Describing Food System – GEC Interactions. In prep.

20. Agriculture research faces two major challenges in relation to CC To help develop production systems that both improve food supply in the face of climate change while simultaneously reducing factors responsible for climate forcing [impacts, adaptation & mitigation]

21. CLIMATE CHANGE REDUCED CLIMATE FORCING What will be the IMPACT of climate change on current production systems? NEW PRODUCTION SYSTEMS How can current production systems be ADAPTED to cope with climate change? CURRENT PRODUCTION SYSTEMS How can current production systems be developed to MITIGATE further climate change? IMPROVED FOOD SECURITY

22. Agriculture research faces two major challenges in relation to CC To help develop production systems that both improve food supply in the face of climate change while simultaneously reducing factors responsible for climate forcing To work more effectively with a range of other disciplines to help deliver agronomic outputs better integrated within the overall context of food security better tuned to the needs of food security policy formulation

24. Micronutrients

25. Stand establishment

26. Losses to weed competition

27. Mechanistic coupling of pests and diseases

28. Simulation of quality

29. Linking “sole crop” models

30. Farm-level databases including management variables

31. Inclusion of other crops

32. Using model outputs to analyse system performance

33. Profitability for farmers

34. Food Systems and vulnerability concepts

35. Regional-level scenarios

36. Integrated socioeconomic-biophysical models

37. Feedbacks of management scenarios to socioeconomic and environmental conditions

38. Policies that facilitate adaptation adoptionKey Research Issues (Ingram, Gregory & Izac. AGEE, 2007)

39. Key agriculture science issues Better understand the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on production systems, in context of food system Assess technical and policy options for both reducing the deleterious impacts and enhancing any benefits of climate change on production systems, while minimising further environmental degradation Understand how best to address the information needs of farmers and policy makers, and report and communicate agriculture research results in a manner that will assist the development of food systems adapted to climate change Couple research on impacts and adaptation more effectively to food security and environment policy

40. Two important considerations Spatial and temporal level of agriculture research in the context of climate change Food production in the broader context of food security and other societal goals

42. includes social, political, economic and climate drivers (multiple stresses)

43. communicates interests, attitudes and expectations; builds stakeholder/science team for further work

44. identifies and discusses adaptation options and tradeoffs amongst outcomes

45. helps integrate factors across different scales and levels

47. Workshop Session Possible Research Questions Perceptions of CC and links to (confusion with?) other drivers Historical coping and role of institutions Implications for development policy, strategy and practice Nature of adaptive strategies across diverse livelihood systems Role of research

48. Way forward? How to help identify adaptation pathways based on managing current climate risk? How to help identify adaptation pathways under progressive climate change? How to contribute to integrated scenario analyses? How to use linked long-term agricultural experimental sites as a platform for CGIAR and CCCP development?

50. CCCP Research Framework and Science Themes Climate Variability and Change Current agricultural & food systems Improved Environmental Benefits Improved Livelihoods 1 Diagnosis, context and tradeoff analysis 2 Role of macro-level policies Improved Food Security 3 Researcher/stakeholder interactions Trade-offs ADAPTATION PATHWAYS 4 Managing climate risk 5 Progressive climate change 6 Adaptation through mitigation Adapted agricultural & food systems