Presented by Andy Jarvis (CCAFS-CIAT, Theme Leader Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change) at the Seminar on CRP7: Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), ILRI, Nairobi, 12 May 2011. Provides an overview of the CCAFS-CGIAR Research Program with introductions to the themes and horizon for exciting multi-centre science.

2. The Challenge

3. The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability

4. Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050 Crop suitability is changing

6. “ Unchecked climate change will result in a 20% increase in malnourished children by 2050 ,” relative to the full mitigation scenario. -Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS

7. Message 1: In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.

8. Left : Example of a silvo-pastoral system 2006 2007 2008 Ecosystem valuation Spot the livestock! Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)

9. Message 2: With new challenges also come new opportunities.

10. Program Design

11. CCAFS: the partnership

14. Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices The CGIAR Research Centers Lead center - CIAT

15. Place-based field work Indo- Gangetic Plains : There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise; the intensity and probability of extreme events will likely increase. Regional director: Pramod Aggarwal East Africa : Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress. Regional director: James Kinyangi West Africa : Extreme rainfall variability impedes precipitation predictions, but the Sahel will likely experience shorter growing periods. Regional director: Robert Zougmor é

17. Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

19. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture What CCAFS output?

20. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge. Why is it useful? The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge. What CCAFS output?

21. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Farms of the future The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality What CCAFS output? Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials Why is it useful?

22. TPE analysis Future systems Knowledge & intuition Ideotype concept Gene/allelediscovery Intelligent phenotyping designs Marker developmt. Modeling Marker validation, Integration, G x E x M Molecular breeding Intelligent choice of populations Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment CHANGE Con-ventional breeding Application Methodology Search Function, regulation, phénotype Strategic choices Diversity Panels Biparental Pops CCAFS (CRP7) activity 1.2: Breeding strategies & ideotypes for 2030 horizon

23. >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org) 20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites Effect of +1ºC warming on yield Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought Lobell et al. 2011

26. Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods ( Farm level ) Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response ( Food system level ) Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services Managing Climate Risk · 2

29. Managing climate risk · 2 >> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate data Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across Africa Filling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO What CCAFS outputs? Crucial for calculating index insurance, forecasting production for food crisis and trade management etc Why is it useful?

30. Pro-poor Mitigation VISION Short-term : Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes Long-term : Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation

31. Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements Objective Three : Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3

34. Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 >> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural emissions Two workshops, hosted together with FAO and Duke University, will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, especially for farm- and landscape level-impacts. What CCAFS outputs? Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground. Why is it useful?

36. Rural Livelihoods Environment Food Security Integration for Decision Making T2 : Risk Management T3 : Pro-poor Mitigation

37. Objective One: Linking knowledge with action Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis Integration for Decision Making · 4

40. http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/ >> Spotlight on: Integration for Decision Making · 4 A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe What CCAFS outputs? To drive agricultural impact models for climate change studies Why is it useful?

41. Select climate model (6 options or their avg) Select emissions scenario (3 options) Select the centre year of the time slice Select location Select the number of years of data desired Integration for Decision Making · 4 MarkSim ™

43. Cross-cutting principles, activities & outputs

45. Mainstream outputs and outcomes For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results. CLIFF, meteorological services, climate and agricultural research institutes, the Climate Food and Farming PhD student network For policy partners to demand and use data, tools, and results Governments, civil society, development organizations, farmers’ organizations, private sector e.g. User-driven regional scenarios

49. CCAFS is an active partner in the annual ARDD side event at the annual UNFCCC Conference of Parties negotiations. Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD) Global policy impact The Commission will identify what policy changes and actions are needed now to help the world achieve sustainable agriculture that contributes to food security and poverty reduction, and helps respond to climate change adaptation and mitigation goals. The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change

50. Urgent actions in 2011

52. Communications & engagement on multiple fronts , with regional partners and farmers’ voices Hope for agriculture in the UNFCCC? Hague process, Commission, ARDD, Meridian, SACAU & FANRPAN Need to bring African policy-makers on board Communications & policy outreach

54. CCAFS Governance Structure

56. CCAFS Budget Subtotal Executed by Centers 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Theme 1 Adaptation to progressive climate change 16.9 18.0 18.5 19.5 20.4 93.3 Theme 2 Adaptation through managing climate risk 5.3 6.0 7.0 7.4 7.7 33.4 Theme 3 Pro-poor climate change mitigation 7.9 8.6 9.5 10.0 10.5 46.4 Theme 4 Integration for decision making 9.7 10.2 11.2 11.7 12.3 55.1 CRP7, Theme and regional coordination 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 8.1 Subtotal 40.9 44.1 48.0 50.4 53.0 236.4 37% 14% 19% 27% 3% Theme 1: Adaptation to progressive climate change Theme 2: Adaptation through managing climate risk Theme 3: Pro- - poor climate change mitigation Theme 4: Integration for decision making CRP7: Theme and regional coordination

57. CCAFS Budget across centers

58. CCAFS Budget across centers - Unrestricted

59. ILRI Activity Plan part 1 Theme 1, Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 1.1 Adapted Farming systems to changing climate conditions Data assembly (including systems and the analytical framework), analysis and synthesis Documentation of future vulnerability of livestock systems globally to target interventions INRA-led consortium of 27 partners 1.2 Breeding strategies for future climatic conditions 1.3 Species and genetic diversity for climate change Theme 2, Adaptation Pathways for Current Climate Risk Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 2.1 Managing climate risk and building resilient livelihoods Workshops, syntheses, report writing Documentation of how agro-pastoralists are coping with climate risk in West and Southern Africa, and piloting options as to how they may cope with increased climate risk in the future PIK, University of Kassel, IER (Mali), IIAM (Mozambique), IFPRI 2.2 Managing climate risk through food delivery, trade and crisis response 2.3 Prediction of climate impacts, and enhanced climate services

60. ILRI Activity Plan part 2 Theme 3, Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 3.1. Low-carbon agricultural development pathways Consultations, workshop, analysis, syntheses Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock systems by country: updating the IPCC numbers IIASA, FAO 3.2 Institutional arrangements and incentives for mitigation 3.3 On-farm mitigation practices and landscape implications Workshop, syntheses Scoping study on carbon sequestration in livestock systems in developing countries Under development Theme 4, Integration for Decision Making Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 4.1 Linking knowledge with action 4.2 Data and tools for analysis and planning Model development, testing and documentation Documentation for GLOBIOM-Livestock, a global integrated assessment model with explicit treatment of livestock issues 4.3 Refining frameworks for policy analysis Writeshops, syntheses Global review of livestock issues in global change IFPRI, IIASA, PIK, FAO, PBL

61. Director: Bruce Campbell Head of Research : Sonja Vermeulen Head of Program Coordination and Communications: Torben Timmermann Program Manager : Misha Wolsgaard-Iversen Events & Program Support Consultant: Ratih Septivita Communications Consultant : Vanessa Meadu CCAFS Director and Heads Program & Comm. Support The CCAFS Team: Who’s coordinating the effort?

62. T1: Adaptation to Progressive CC Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis & Andy Challinor Science Officer: Osana Bonilla-Findji T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk Theme Leader: Jim Hansen Science Officer: Kevin Coffey T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Theme Leader: Lini Wollenberg Science Officer: Michael Misiko T4: Integration for Decision Making Theme Leaders: Phil Thornton, Gerry Nelson, Patti Kristjanson Science Officers: Wiebke Chaudhury, Christina Sison, Moushumi Chaudhury The CCAFS Team: Who’s leading the effort?

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