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IBM Global Business Services
White Paper




                               An appetite for change
                               How an interconnected approach to food supply management can help food
                               growers, producers, sellers and consumers — and planet Earth




                               Guy Blissett, IBM Institute for Business Value, Consumer Products Lead
Executive summary
         In many ways today’s food supply chain is a marvel—a highly fragmented and com-
         plex, and ever-evolving ecosystem that delivers an astounding volume and quality of
         product—sufficient food in all its various forms to feed roughly 6 billion of the Earth’s
         6.8 billion inhabitants. However, in this same value chain where fresh produce is
         shipped around the globe hours after being picked, globally linked financial mar-
         kets dynamically set prices for agricultural commodities, and crops are increasingly
         re-engineered at the genetic level, major stresses are appearing. At a planetary level
         concerns are rising about food security and sustainability; How can we feed the ad-
         ditional 2 billion people that will inhabit the planet by 2050, while at a participant level
         concerns linger and grow about recalls contaminations, waste, spoilage and distribu-
         tion inefficiencies that create shortages and embed incremental costs?


         Planetary concerns center on the increased demands that 2 billion new inhabitants
         will place on the food supply, and changes in consumption that accompany increas-
         es in income. Based on existing trends we will likely need to increase the food supply
         70-100 percent by 2050. Exacerbating these concerns are newer issues such as
         climate change and drought; high and volatile energy prices; plateauing crop yields;
         arable land limitations; and diversion of crops for biofuels. As a consequence, we are
         seeing significant price volatility, shortages, government interventions and a growing
         realization that the current model is not sustainable. Indeed, agriculture is already the
         largest human use of water, comprising an estimated 69 percent of total.


         At a participant level many of the issues are not new, just persistent. Consumers
         continue to crave additional information about product source and contents, while
         harboring lingering safety concerns. Retailers continue to wrestle with stubborn lev-
         els of out of stocks and razor-thin low margins. Consumer products (CP) companies
         continue to struggle with accurately sensing end demand, and synchronizing their
         plans and forecasts with retailers. Farmers and growers struggle with increasingly
         pernicious weather, rising input costs, uncertain demand and volatile market prices.




Page 2
Other persistent problems—such as                    In this whitepaper, we will summarize                           Structure of the current food
food spoilage and waste, product                     the current structure of the food value                         value chain
contaminations and recalls; and often                chain, assess its current state, and                            The food value chain — comprising liter-
convoluted farm subsidies and trade                  identify the capabilities and attributes                        ally tens of thousands of participants of
policies—further complicate an already               necessary for a smarter food value chain.                       varying size and sophistication spread
challenging landscape.                                                                                               across the globe — is a daunting enter-
                                                                                                                     prise to summarize. For our purposes, we
Clearly, a smarter approach to manag-                                                                                have grouped and summarized partici-
ing our food value chain is needed. And                                                                              pants into the following value chain (see
while technology alone cannot solve the                                                                              Figure A). While this figure represents a
crisis, its application to create a value                                                                            gross simplification of the web of partici-
chain that is increasingly instrumented,                                                                             pants and their interactions it does enable
interconnected and intelligent is essential.                                                                         a structured assessment of the existing
                                                                                                                     and emerging stresses, and provides a
                                                                                                                     framework for considering solutions.




                                               Figure A. The Food Value Chain...a highly simplified representation




                                                                                                                                                           Page 3
In addition to its complexity, the food              It is notable that some organizations act                      Commodity and specialty products provid-
value chain can also be viewed as a                  as highly focused specialists developing                       ers / primary producers

study in contrasts. At each step the                 unique capabilities and expertise in a                         This complex and fragmented group

participants and their activities vary               specific competency (e.g., raising broiler                     and can be clustered around the follow-

across the spectrum in terms of dimen-               chickens in their thousands), while                            ing competencies:

sions such as scale, breadth, scope,                 others operate across multiple com-
                                                                                                                    • Agriculture: Growers of legumes,
sophistication and integration (see                  petencies reaping benefits of vertical
                                                                                                                       pulses, wheat, rice, fruits, vegetables,
figure B).                                           integration (e.g., global beverage and
                                                                                                                       corn, and other crops. They range
                                                     snack company integrated all the way
                                                                                                                       in size from the small family farms to
                                                     upstream to potato farmers and sup-
                                                                                                                       titans such as Archer Daniels Midland
                                                     pliers of sugar alternatives). Assorted
                                                                                                                       (ADM), Bunge, and Cargill.
                                                     cooperatives, trade associations, and
                                                     market organizations also play a role
                                                                                                                    • Beef, chicken and pork farmers: in-
                                                     aggregating product, collecting informa-
                                                                                                                       cluding cow/calf operations, stocker
                                                     tion, representing industry interests and
                                                                                                                       and backgrounding operations,
                                                     sharing knowledge.
                                                                                                                       feedlots, ranchers, and Concentrated
                                                                                                                       Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO).




                                         Figure B. Food Value Chain particpants and their activities...a study in contrasts




Page 4
• Dairy farms and cooperatives: pro-       Brokers, distributors, exporters,            Food and Foodservice Wholesale distributors
  ducing cheese, milk and milk protein     importers, traders                           These entities bridge the gap between
  and other derivative products.           This portion of the supply chain en-         CP companies and retailers, enabling
                                           compasses a massively diverse group          CP companies to efficiently sell and
• Fisherman and fish farms: that catch     of large and small players that typically    distribute products to diverse and
  and/or farm fish, shrimp and shellfish   add little to no value to the physical       numerous retail outlets, and delivering
                                           product itself, in fact in many cases they   incremental services to the customers .
Component converters, processors, abat-
                                           never even “touch” the physical prod-        In many markets multiple tiers of whole-
toirs, packers and repackers
                                           uct. Their role is to facilitate movement,   saler and distributor may exist between
While operations at this step are
                                           aggregation and trade. In Japan, mega-       the primary manufacturer (i.e., the CP
sometimes highly automated and tightly
                                           players such as Itochu, Mitsubishi and       companies) and the retailer or restaurant.
integrated with those of the farmers
                                           Mitsui are active in each of these areas.
and growers, they are just as likely to
                                                                                        Food retailers and restaurants
be performed manually and dispersed        Consumer products companies                  Food retailers used to consist almost
across a web of small players.             Ranging from global players that own         exclusively of traditional grocery stores,
                                           and manage portfolios of familiar prod-      kiosks, and restaurants but now food
a) Converters of raw / bulk crops,
                                           ucts and brands (e.g., Danone, Unilever,     is sold through every type of outlet
   livestock and other foods into com-
                                           Nestlé, Arla, Heinz, and Kraft), to local    imaginable, including online. Examples
   ponents —slaughtering, deboning,
                                           and regional players focused on a single     range from global powerhouses such
   peeling, cleaning, sorting, slicing,
                                           brand or category (e.g., Kikkoman,           as Carrefour, Trust-Mart, Tesco, Panta-
   freezing, and otherwise storing,
                                           Weetabix, Utz, and Bush Brothers) to         loon and Walmart to individually owned,
                                           the increasingly important private label     single store locations. Restaurants also
b) Processors that change the com-
                                           manufacturers who make products              range from global fast food chains such
   position of the product through
                                           for retailers under their own labels. As     as McDonalds, Jollibee, Taco Bell and
   cooking, mixing, grinding, and/
                                           competition increases, critical inputs       KFC to single unit, individually owned
   or other chemical, mechanical,
                                           become scarce and/or expensive, and          restaurants. These organizations run
   thermal operations
                                           the geographic scope of operations           the gamut in sales volume and degree
Secondary and tertiary suppliers           expands, CP companies are playing an         of technological sophistication.
Chemical, pharmaceutical, industrial       increasingly active role upstream assist-
and specialty companies that manu-         ing and integrating with suppliers and
facture and market the antibiotics, pes-   connecting with end consumers to un-
ticides, fertilizers, seeds, and genetic   derstand their needs and preferences.
material increasingly a component of to-
day’s food value chain. Examples include
Monsanto, BASF, DSM, Potash Corp.




                                                                                                                             Page 5
Food consumers                               Given the complexity of the food value       The global trade in food, myriad regula-
At the end of 2008 there were ap-            chain effective collaboration on issues      tions and inspection standards, and
proximately 6.8 billion food consumers       and stresses is essential. Progress has      the complexity of the processed food
on the planet, and by 2050, two billion      been made toward developing and              we eat are all complicating efforts to
more will join them. Although consum-        adopting standards that facilitate collab-   improve food safety. In the U.S. for
ers the world over crave safe, healthy,      oration, however significant challenges      example imports account for nearly 60
abundant food choices at relatively          remain especially in the upstream end        percent of the fruits and vegetables
low cost, they are extremely difficult       of the chain. Globalization, specializa-     consumed, and 75 percent of the
to please and characterize. They want        tion and fragmentation of the food value     seafood. However, only one percent of
more information about the source and        chain are exacerbating longstanding          those foods are inspected before they
contents of products and are connect-        issues as products get handled by more       enter the country.
ed, concerned and empowered to get           entities spread across a wider geography.
that information and share it.                                                            Food safety issues present problems for
                                             A sample of cross chain and individual       more than just consumers. Food grow-
Stresses on the current system               participant level stresses follows:          ers and consumer product manufac-
The current food value chain does many                                                    turers are facing a crisis of confidence
things very well, from producing pro-        Contaminations and recalls                   from their customers while they struggle
digious volumes of food at a relatively      This issue took center stage in 2008         to institute appropriate safety measures
low direct-end price to the consumer, to     and 2009 with a series of highly             in the face of rising costs. Government
innovating around processes, products,       publicized recalls around the globe of       agencies that regulate food safety are
pricing and packaging. However numer-        products as diverse as spinach, milk,        also increasingly under fire as they
ous factors are stressing the chain at       peanuts, ground beef, and jalapenos          try to answer the public’s demand
both the participant and planetary level.    sickened thousands. Awareness of             for greater accountability with limited
                                             the food safety issue and its cross          staff and resources.
Participant Stresses                         channel impact has been growing and
Participant stresses — typically business    consumers the world over are increas-        Agricultural entities
related — impact or occur at the partici-    ingly concerned about the safety of the      Agricultural entities face an onslaught
pant level, rather than a planetary level.   food they eat and farmers feeling the        of unique stresses. Competing in the
Some business stresses — such as             financial impact of recalls. A sample of     increasingly competitive global market,
contaminations and recalls — cut across      contaminations and recalls since 2005        these organizations must often con-
the entire chain and even overlap with       is shown in figure C.                        tend with extreme price volatility, due in
planetary concerns. Others — such                                                         part to biofuel production fluctuations;
as high failure rates for new product                                                     widespread tariffs and import quotas;
introductions — are more localized in                                                     and sometimes perverse production
their impact.                                                                             incentives such as those currently in
                                                                                          place for European milk and sugar, and
                                                                                          U.S. corn.




Page 6
Figure C. Product contaminations and recalls...a major stress on the Value Chain


Additionally, costs are on the rise in             The future will likely bring more, not                      Many CP companies are already
many areas of the industry. High energy            fewer pressures for these organizations,                    responding to these changes but rec-
costs are forcing production costs                 including:                                                  ognize they have yet to find workable,
up because oil, natural gas and their                                                                          comprehensive solutions. Connec-
                                                   • Rising demand for sustainable practices
derivatives are essential components                                                                           tions with consumers are tenuous and
to modern agriculture, both to fuel                • Growing concern about water usage,                        distrust of companies, products and
machinery and as ingredients in fertil-               waste and runoff                                         brands remains high. At the same time
izers and pesticides. Additionally, many           • Increased need for agility due to                         acceptance of private label products is
agricultural entities are under increas-              climate changes                                          growing.
ing pressure to pay a premium for the
water they use to grow crops or raise              Consumer Products companies                                 Additionally, pressure is mounting for
livestock. Europe already has such                 The primary business of CP companies                        CP companies to reliably measure the
a water pricing system in place and                is to delight customers and consumers.                      impact of their operations and those
other agricultural producers are bracing           Today they struggle with an increas-                        of their suppliers. Walmart recently
themselves for this potentially devastat-          ingly concentrated and demanding                            announced creation of a sustainability
ing cost increase.                                 customer base who are just as likely to                     index that may soon set a benchmark
                                                   be competitors. Another stress comes                        for the industry. Walmart leaders say
                                                   in the form of a rapidly growing number                     they are creating the index due to the
                                                   of increasingly affluent consumers, who                     planet’s increasing global population,
                                                   are themselves concerned, connected                         decreasing natural resources and in
                                                   and empowered to gather and share in-                       response to consumer demand.
                                                   formation. IBM calls this dynamic group
                                                   Omni Consumers.




                                                                                                                                                  Page 7
Lastly, CP companies are caught be-         in India, who hand deliver 170,000       Planetary concerns
tween a financial rock and a hard place     homemade meals to office workers         At the heart of planetary concerns are
with consumers unwilling to pay more        each day. As previously mentioned,       the additional two billion people ex-
for their food and rising input costs.      retailers are under increased pressure   pected to inhabit the planet by 2050,
Indeed cocoa, tea and other commodi-        to be more responsive to notoriously     up from 6.8 Billion at the end of 2008.
ties have hit record highs within the       fickle customer demands. In a dif-       These consumers are increasingly
past 12-18 months.                          ficult economy and an oversaturated      likely to live in a city, and as their in-
                                            marketplace, attempting to increase      come rises their consumption of meat
Wholesalers/distributors                    customer responsiveness and remain       and dairy products will also likely rise.
Wholesalers and distributors are under      profitable in the face of intense com-   These factors will place tremendous
pressure from both upstream and             petition can be a daunting task.         pressures on a food value chain al-
downstream value chain partners to                                                   ready straining to feed the world.
evolve their role and offer enhanced ser-   Consumers
vices. As grocers and restaurant chains     A recent, steady, stream of food         The global food value chain is a study
handle more of their own distribution       recalls and safety warnings have         in contradictions. Large segments
and turn to increasingly capable mega-      left many consumers fearful of the       of the population are subjected to
distributors and third-party logistics      food they consume and distrustful        hunger and scarcity alongside popu-
providers, food distributors are under      of companies, products and brands.       lations enjoying enormous excess.
attack like never before. They’re also      Consumers are increasingly vocal         Tragically, at the same time, vast
being squeezed by unprecedented cost        in their demands for safer food and      amounts of food is spoiled or wasted
pressures, product proliferation and dis-   increased transparency about the         at every stage of the production
tribution complexity. In many emerging      origin and contents of food. Con-        process; some experts estimate up to
markets the multiple tiers of distributor   sumer demands are also growing for       50 percent may be lost between farm
further complicate the coordination         functional foods that deliver added      and dinner table. At the same time
and collaboration so necessary for          health and/or nutritional benefits.      geographic regions are increasingly
efficient operations.                       To that end, many consumer prod-         subjected to alternating periods of
                                            ucts manufacturers are focusing on       excessive rainfall, and then drought.
Retailers and restaurants                   successfully launching new items to      While the local food movement is
As the number of channels through           satisfy the increased preference of      gaining increased traction, the major-
which food is sold has proliferated so      consumers for health and wellness.       ity of food is produced far from where
have the challenges. Retailers now          In the last five years, there has been   it is ultimately consumed, being
prepare foods, own brands and sell          38 percent increase in marketing food    shipped thousands of miles before ar-
meals. Prepared food is sold through        and beverages as “better for you.”       riving in your local store or restaurant.
gas stations, hardware stores, coffee       Satisfying this concerned, connected
shops and kiosks. The proliferation         and empowered consumer is an ever
of quick service restaurants (QSR)          evolving stress on the value chain.
globally has exploded requirements
for food service and food is delivered
to your home, office or other location.
At the same time traditional channels
remain, such as the Dabbawallas




Page 8
Although for many consumers it may            In the next few paragraphs we will focus    Consumption
still be hard to appreciate the planetary     in on a couple of the major planetary       Exacerbating the impacts of population
implications of the food they eat. In-        stressors on the global food value chain:   growth are changing consumption pat-
creasingly the impact of the global food                                                  terns. In 2008 for the first time humans
                                              Population
value chain is being measured, com-                                                       ate more farmed fish than wild fish, from
                                              Although many experts believe that we
municated and appreciated. From the                                                       tilapia, to salmon, to cod. Other pat-
                                              currently produce enough food to feed
land and water required to raise cattle                                                   terns are also changing. It is well docu-
                                              the planet’s inhabitants, the world’s
or grow grain to the energy required to                                                   mented that as incomes rise, so does
                                              population is growing. At the end of
create, transport and distribute food                                                     consumption of meat, fish and dairy.
                                              2008, the world’s population reached
products and the amount of food that                                                      Between 1990 and 2005 China’s popu-
                                              6.8 billion. By 2020, that number is ex-
is wasted or spoiled along the way vis-                                                   lation increased by approximately 161
                                              pected to rise to nearly 8 billion and by
ibility to these costs is increasing.                                                     million (14 percent) and over the same
                                              2050 the world’s population may well
                                                                                          time period per capita pork consump-
From a planetary perspective, the prob-       exceed 9 billion. This unprecedented
                                                                                          tion nearly doubled, going from 19.7
lems are many and serious. How can            population growth will likely drive deep
                                                                                          Kg to 37.9 Kg. The resulting increase
food growers and producers continue           changes for every member of the global
                                                                                          in Chinese annual pork consumption of
to meet consumers’ demands efficiently        food value chain who will be forced to
                                                                                          27.1 M tonnes represents roughly 360
amidst price volatility, shortages, climate   do continually more with less.
                                                                                          million additional pigs, which require
changes and government interventions?                                                     155,000 km2 of farmland, an area
                                              Estimates are that the incremental
How can consumers ensure the food                                                         roughly the size of England and Wales.
                                              population, coupled with changing
they eat is safe, ethically produced,
                                              consumption (see next section) will
healthy and affordable? And how can                                                       With global demand for meat and
                                              require a 70 percent increase in global
the players in the historically-siloed food                                               poultry expected to rise 25 percent by
                                              food production. The acreage needed
value chain integrate their thinking and                                                  2015, many difficult questions loom.
                                              for such an increase in production is
their processes with each other to cre-                                                   How can food producers meet the ris-
                                              estimated at approximately 300 million
ate a smart, sustainable system that will                                                 ing demand? Are existing methods for
                                              acres, an area roughly three times the
benefit the Earth and its inhabitants for                                                 fattening livestock sustainable, safe and
                                              size of California.
many generations to come?                                                                 ethical? How can consumers balance
                                                                                          their need for affordable food against
                                              For a growing number of countries the
                                                                                          their desire for responsible products?
                                              issue of food security is taking on a
                                                                                          Where will we find the necessary land?
                                              whole new level of relevance and driv-
                                                                                          Finding answers for these and related
                                              ing some major shifts in ownership of
                                                                                          questions is crucial for developing food
                                              agricultural resources.
                                                                                          production processes that are optimal
                                                                                          for all members of the global food value
                                                                                          chain, and for planet Earth. Especially
                                                                                          since these foods require large land
                                                                                          areas, massive quantities of water,




                                                                                                                              Page 9
prodigious amounts of energy and               Water-related issues will likely increase               Kilocalorie / BTU
generate significant volumes of waste.         in number and complexity as popula-                     Energy – and more specifically oil and
An additional concern is that overcon-         tions rise, urban areas expand, and                     natural gas – is perhaps the second
sumption of these foods and changes            climate change, drought and farming                     most important input to today’s food
in lifestyle are a contributor to the global   practices affect crop yields and avail-                 value chain. Sixty years ago, food
obesity and health crisis.                     able arable land. In 1950 there was                     producers could create a calorie of food
                                               1.2 acres of arable land per person, by                 with less than half a calorie of fossil
H20
                                               2010 it is forecast to be just 0.52 acres.              fuel. Today, a single calorie of modern
Until quite recently water — arguably the
                                               One manifestation is a burgeoning                       supermarket food may require up to 10
single most important input to the food
                                               global trade in virtual water, as countries             calories of fossil fuel to produce. One
value chain — was a frequently under-
                                               with limited water acquire overseas                     study conducted in 2000 estimated that
addressed issue in many food chain
                                               farmland to bolster domestic food                       ten percent of the energy used annu-
discussions, its continued availability
                                               security (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi                 ally in the U.S. was consumed by the
at little to no cost considered a given.
                                               and Qatar acquiring farmland in Sudan,                  food industry.
However there is a growing apprecia-
                                               Egypt, Ukraine, and Pakistan).
tion that agriculture is the single largest
human use of water and that current            Governments will likely play an increas-
policies and practices are very likely         ingly active role in finding a balance
unsustainable. The underlying issues           across industrial, agricultural, environ-
are myriad but include degradation of          mental and municipal water uses.
aquifers, rivers and lakes to support
crop irrigation, risk of runoff from the
lagoons of animal waste created by
concentrated animal feeding operations
(CAFO), continued high levels of food
waste and spoilage in the supply chain,
deforestation that degrades water
retention as developing world farmers
seek new, productive acreage, and
consumer thirst for bottled water, soft
drinks and beer.




                                                              Figure D. Water...an essential component in food production and distribution




Page 10
Increased demand for biofuels such          Let’s build a smarter food supply            is rarely consumed where it is grown or
as ethanol has generated a unique           While technology alone cannot deliver a      raised, frequently exported to low cost
set of problems with the world’s food       solution to the myriad stresses impact-      markets for processing or packaging,
supply. Biofuels gained popularity as a     ing the food value chain, its application    then re-exported as a finished product
way to potentially wean countries from      to create a smarter food value chain—        for consumption. For example, cod
their reliance on oil and combat rising     one that is increasingly instrumented, in-   caught off the coasts of Norway may
fuel costs. But today, an estimated 25      terconnected and intelligent—is essential.   be shipped to China for processing
percent of U.S. corn is now converted                                                    into filets, only to be shipped back to
to ethanol and goes to fuel vehicles        Why will a smarter food value chain be       Norway as a finished product for sale to
rather than people or animals. In the       instrumented? Because it will use sens-      consumers. This inflates logistics costs
meantime, high oil prices contribute to     ing and tracing technologies, such as        and increases waste due to spoilage,
higher food prices by raising the cost of   satellites, radio frequency identification   damage or contamination.
food-production-related items such as       (RFID) and barcodes, heat and moisture
fertilizer and transportation.              monitors, and global positioning sys-        Finally, a smarter food value chain will
                                            tems (GPS) to enhance overall supply         be intelligent—capturing, leveraging and
CO2 / °Fahrenheit / °Celsius                chain visibility as meat, fish, dairy and    sharing standardized data and inte-
A growing chorus of reasoned and            produce moves from the farm or field to      grated information to generate insights
informed voices are raising the alarm       the fork, lowering waste and spoilage        on optimizing the value chain. Smart
about the global impacts of climate         and reducing costs. Sensors can also         technology can improve the complex
change on agriculture. At a time when       enable more efficient production meth-       process that is the production, distri-
the energy conversion ratio for many of     ods by reducing irrigation, pesticide        bution, storage, selling, consumption
our foods continues to trend towards        and fertilizer requirements, boosting        and disposal of food. Elements include
inefficiency and the environmental im-      yields and monitoring moisture, tem-         improved planning and coordination,
pact of the food value chain is increas-    perature and airflow during storage to       efficient storage and dynamic routing,
ingly documented and understood,            reduce spoilage.                             optimization for cost, carbon and other
climate change represents perhaps the                                                    attributes and improved traceability. The
most important stress on the global         A smarter global food value chain will       result can be more, safer, higher quality
food value chain. However the impact        also be interconnected—with the dispa-       food delivered when and where it is
of climate change likely extends beyond     rate ranches, farms, packers, feedlots,      needed, and with reduced waste and
the immediate and visible. A recent         storage bins, manufacturing and pro-         an extended shelf life.
report from the United Nations Food         cessing plants, warehouses, distribution
and Agriculture Organization anticipates    centers, and retail stores sharing infor-
climate change will also increase food      mation and insights. This connectivity
safety risks (increasing incidence of       is increasingly important as food today
contamination by Salmonella, Campylo-
bacter, E. coli and Salmonella).




                                                                                                                            Page 11
Elements of a smarter food supply can       • Sensors technology and actuators           • Integrated communication systems
be found and imagined for application         can be used to identify and respond          enable those at the top of the food
at every step in the global value food        to threats across the supply chain           value chain to seamlessly share in-
chain:                                        (e.g., excessive humidity or heat,           formation about anticipated growth
                                              or contamination). Companies like            and demand with downstream, cre-
Commodity and specialty products provid-
                                              Total Grain Management offer such            ating a stronger link between supply
ers / primary producers
                                              technologies that monitor conditions         and demand
Given the fragmentation and historic
                                              in grain silos and adjust humidity and
lack of technological sophistication
                                              heat to reduce spoilage and forma-         • Application of genetic manipulation
among many participants in this area
                                              tion of potentially harmful mycotoxins.      and nano-technology to animals
of the supply chain there are many
                                                                                           and crops to deliver drought and
opportunities for greater instrumenta-
                                            • Sensors can automatically adjust             pest resistance, nutrition and other
tion, intelligence and interconnectivity,
                                              water usage based on local and re-           functional benefits. Already 64% of
including:
                                              gional dynamics (e.g., fluctuations in       the world’ soybeans and 24% of corn
                                              seasonal/daily industrial or residential     is genetically modified
• Farmers can use GPS and ad-
                                              water requirements
  vanced sensor technology to monitor                                                    Consumer products companies
  weather patterns, assess soil and                                                      Smart CP companies can
                                            • Systems and tools can be used to
  crop conditions, and adjust their
                                              drive standardization of food related
  water, fertilizer and pesticide usage                                                  • Leverage the widespread adoption
                                              processes to mitigate risk and reduce
  for optimal efficiency.                                                                  of data standards such as GS1, the
                                              both spoilage and waste. A powerful
                                                                                           power middleware and other com-
                                              example of this dynamic can be seen
• Farmers, growers and even fishermen                                                      munications platforms to continu-
                                              in the increasing adoption of pro-
  in less developed regions are using                                                      ously coordinate inventories, produc-
                                              grams such as the Consumer Goods
  mobile phones to access market,                                                          tion plans and sales forecasts with
                                              Forum’s Global Food Safety Initiative.
  scientific, and environmental data and                                                   customers and suppliers to create a
  knowledge through services such as                                                       consistent, seamless, link between
                                            • Serialization and tagging technol-
  Farmers Friend in Uganda, 12582.                                                         groups.
                                              ogy, coupled with the application
  com in China, mKrishi in India. In this
                                              of standardized nomenclature for
  way they can boost yields as well as                                                   • Embrace and enable the concepts
                                              participants, locations and products,
  their own returns by boosting price                                                      and principles of Open Innovation
                                              enables true end to end traceability
  realized and reducing production costs.                                                  by connecting with a diverse set of
                                              across the supply chain.
                                                                                           internal and external stakeholders
                                                                                           and other interested parties to ac-
                                                                                           cess ideas, technologies, ingredients,
                                                                                           and other assets. In the process
                                                                                           accelerating the new product creation
                                                                                           process, lowering costs and boosting
                                                                                           success rates.




Page 12
• Reduce water usage in production,           Wholesalers and distributors              Retailers and restaurants
  packaging and products themselves           Smart wholesales and distributions        In this frequently oversaturated mar-
  by marketing concentrated versions          are deploying RFID, 2D barcodes, and      ketplace, many retailers and restau-
  of liquid based products (e.g., laundry     other identification technologies to      rateurs are finding they must take a
  and dish detergent), reusing water in       track products as they move through       multi-pronged approach to retaining
  production processes,                       the chain. Such technologies enable       customers and attracting new ones.
                                              companies to continuously coordinate      Strategies include:
• Deploy advanced monitoring tools to         inventories, production plans and
  listen and understand the concerns          sales forecasts with retail or restau-    • Maintaining a seamless connection
  of customers and consumers about            rant customers and CP company               with consumers that transcends their
  products, brands and companies              suppliers for uninterrupted planning        location, allowing them to dynami-
  in areas such as traceability, social       and communication.                          cally and continuously search, review,
  responsibility, sustainability, and apply                                               purchase and take acceptance of
  advanced analytics to convert those         Additionally, smart wholesalers and         products and services leveraging
  observations into actionable insights       distributors can optimize supply chain      devices such as mobile phones, in
  such as new products, promotions            software to minimize distribution costs     store kiosks, and hand held devices,
  and distribution strategies.                (e.g., storage, transportation) for         identification and preference informa-
                                              multiple positive outcomes, includ-         tion garnered from web searches,
• Deploy sensors (e.g., RFID tags,            ing increased profit and a decreased        loyalty cards and purchase history,
  thermometers and psychrometers) to          carbon footprint.                           supporting technologies such as
  track location and monitor heat and                                                     video surveillance, GPS and web
  humidity throughout their production,                                                   monitoring, and advanced text, data
  packaging and storage operations                                                        and video analytics.
  and connected intelligent actuators
  to automatically effect changes to                                                    • Improving the in-store experience.
  processes, conditions and operations                                                    This can be accomplished by provid-
  to boost efficiency, service and safety.                                                ing more value added services to
                                                                                          consumers through in-store offerings
• Dynamically optimize their supply                                                       such kiosks, shopping cart PCs, or
  chain operations against both tradi-                                                    self checkout features as well as out-
  tional metrics (e.g., $ cost, customer                                                  of-store offerings such as Website
  service, asset utilization) and new                                                     interactions or services.
  metrics (e.g., fuel, H20, and C02).




                                                                                                                         Page 13
• Adjusting forecasts, orders and          Consumers
                                                                                        Sequencing the cocoa genome
  inventories based on weather, sea-       Usually, considered the end of the
                                                                                        IBM Research, the U.S. Department of Agri-
  sonal, calendar, competitive, price,     global food value chain, consum-
                                                                                        culture and Mars, Incorporated are teaming
  availability and other conditions        ers are still driving many changes
                                                                                        up and through their collaboration, they
                                           upstream. “Smart” consumers use
• Ensuring in-stock positions to                                                        hope to sequence the genome that makes
                                           technology in myriad ways to become
  reduce lost sales, experimenting                                                      cocoa, the key ingredient of chocolate.
                                           even smarter, including:
  with new formats and channels (See
                                                                                        Researchers plan to use IBM’s computa-
  the IBM report on multi-channel)         • Using online and mobile coupons
                                                                                        tional biology technology and expertise to
  http://www-935.ibm.com/ser-
                                           • Selectively shopping online based on       develop a detailed genetic map, identifying
  vices/us/index.wss/ibvstudy/imc/
                                             availability, price and convenience        the specific genetic traits that produce
  a1016279?cntxt=a1000063
                                                                                        higher cocoa plant yields and resist

• Continued challenges coordinat-          • Researching products and compa-            drought or pests.

  ing promotions, new product                nies online — both through structured
                                             and controlled content such as com-        But like any sweet treat, the results of
  introductions and day-to-day
                                             pany Websites and through unstruc-         this research will be better when shared.
  business with CP suppliers - See
                                             tured and uncontrolled content such        Mars will make the genome information
  the press release on data sharing:
                                             as social networking sites, online         available for free through the Public Intel-
  http://www-935.ibm.com/ser-
                                             communities and blogs                      lectual Property Resource for Agriculture
  vices/us/index.wss/summary/imc/
                                                                                        (PIPRA), which supports agricultural
  a1031441?cntxt=a1000063
                                           • Sharing information, insights and          innovation for both humanitarian and

• Developing the capabilities needed to      opinions in real time with other con-      small-scale commercial purposes.

  support rapidly growing private label      sumers and directly with manufacturers

  business (e.g., retailers increasingly     and other stakeholders such as NGO

  need brand management, shopper
                                           • Investigating products and their impacts
  insights, marketing capabilities)




Page 14
Conclusion                                     For further information
The stresses on the food value chain are       Getting Real About the High Price of
pervasive, profound and persistent and         Cheap Food (Time Magazine, August 21,
while solutions are not easy, technology is    2009) http://www.time.com/time/health/
no longer the barrier it once was. A smart-    article/0,8599,1917458-1,00.html
er food value chain is not just possible,
but imperative. By leveraging the collective   Cargill’s Inside View Helps It Buck Down-

and synergistic power of intelligence,         turn (The Wall Street Journal, January

instrumentation and interconnectivity we       14, 2009) http://online.wsj.com/article/

can make that imperative a reality.            SB123189501407679581.html


Why IBM?                                       Health Ills Abound as Farm Runoff
Technology is shaping how food grows,          Fouls Wells (The New York Times,
how it tastes and how it gets to your          September 17, 2009) http://www.
plate. A smarter global food system would      nytimes.com/2009/09/18/us/18dairy.
help eliminate waste, improve quality and      html?scp=2&sq=runoff&st=cse
ensure safety. IBM has the technology
solutions and expertise to make it happen.


To find out how we can help your organi-
zation build a smarter food supply chain,
contact your IBM representative or visit:
http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/
us/smartplanet/topics/food/20081208/
index.shtml




                                                                                           Page 15
®




©	 Copyright	IBM	Corporation	2009


	   IBM	Global	Business	Services


	   Route	100	
    Somers,	NY	10589	
    U.S.A.


	   Produced	in	the	United	States	of	America


	   December	2009


	   All	Rights	Reserved


	   IBM,	the	IBM	logo	and	ibm.com	are	trademarks	
    or	registered	trademarks	of	International	Busi-
    ness	Machines	Corporation	in	the	United	States,	
    other	countries,	or	both.	If	these	and	other	IBM	
    trademarked	terms	are	marked	on	their	first	
    occurrence	in	this	information	with	a	trademark	
    symbol	(®	or	™),	these	symbols	indicate	U.S.	
    registered	or	common	law	trademarks	owned	by	
    IBM	at	the	time	this	information	was	published.	
    Such	trademarks	may	also	be	registered	or	com-
    mon	law	trademarks	in	other	countries.	A	current	
    list	of	IBM	trademarks	is	available	on	the	Web	at	
    “Copyright	and	trademark	information”	at	ibm.
    com/legal/copytrade.shtml


	   Other	company,	product	and	service	names	may	
    be	trademarks	or	service	marks	of	others.	


	   References	in	this	publication	to	IBM	products	and	
    services	do	not	imply	that	IBM	intends	to	make	them	
    available	in	all	countries	in	which	IBM	operates.




    CPW0-3002-USEN-00

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IBM Retail White Paper | Technology & Smarter Food Supply Management

  • 1. IBM Global Business Services White Paper An appetite for change How an interconnected approach to food supply management can help food growers, producers, sellers and consumers — and planet Earth Guy Blissett, IBM Institute for Business Value, Consumer Products Lead
  • 2. Executive summary In many ways today’s food supply chain is a marvel—a highly fragmented and com- plex, and ever-evolving ecosystem that delivers an astounding volume and quality of product—sufficient food in all its various forms to feed roughly 6 billion of the Earth’s 6.8 billion inhabitants. However, in this same value chain where fresh produce is shipped around the globe hours after being picked, globally linked financial mar- kets dynamically set prices for agricultural commodities, and crops are increasingly re-engineered at the genetic level, major stresses are appearing. At a planetary level concerns are rising about food security and sustainability; How can we feed the ad- ditional 2 billion people that will inhabit the planet by 2050, while at a participant level concerns linger and grow about recalls contaminations, waste, spoilage and distribu- tion inefficiencies that create shortages and embed incremental costs? Planetary concerns center on the increased demands that 2 billion new inhabitants will place on the food supply, and changes in consumption that accompany increas- es in income. Based on existing trends we will likely need to increase the food supply 70-100 percent by 2050. Exacerbating these concerns are newer issues such as climate change and drought; high and volatile energy prices; plateauing crop yields; arable land limitations; and diversion of crops for biofuels. As a consequence, we are seeing significant price volatility, shortages, government interventions and a growing realization that the current model is not sustainable. Indeed, agriculture is already the largest human use of water, comprising an estimated 69 percent of total. At a participant level many of the issues are not new, just persistent. Consumers continue to crave additional information about product source and contents, while harboring lingering safety concerns. Retailers continue to wrestle with stubborn lev- els of out of stocks and razor-thin low margins. Consumer products (CP) companies continue to struggle with accurately sensing end demand, and synchronizing their plans and forecasts with retailers. Farmers and growers struggle with increasingly pernicious weather, rising input costs, uncertain demand and volatile market prices. Page 2
  • 3. Other persistent problems—such as In this whitepaper, we will summarize Structure of the current food food spoilage and waste, product the current structure of the food value value chain contaminations and recalls; and often chain, assess its current state, and The food value chain — comprising liter- convoluted farm subsidies and trade identify the capabilities and attributes ally tens of thousands of participants of policies—further complicate an already necessary for a smarter food value chain. varying size and sophistication spread challenging landscape. across the globe — is a daunting enter- prise to summarize. For our purposes, we Clearly, a smarter approach to manag- have grouped and summarized partici- ing our food value chain is needed. And pants into the following value chain (see while technology alone cannot solve the Figure A). While this figure represents a crisis, its application to create a value gross simplification of the web of partici- chain that is increasingly instrumented, pants and their interactions it does enable interconnected and intelligent is essential. a structured assessment of the existing and emerging stresses, and provides a framework for considering solutions. Figure A. The Food Value Chain...a highly simplified representation Page 3
  • 4. In addition to its complexity, the food It is notable that some organizations act Commodity and specialty products provid- value chain can also be viewed as a as highly focused specialists developing ers / primary producers study in contrasts. At each step the unique capabilities and expertise in a This complex and fragmented group participants and their activities vary specific competency (e.g., raising broiler and can be clustered around the follow- across the spectrum in terms of dimen- chickens in their thousands), while ing competencies: sions such as scale, breadth, scope, others operate across multiple com- • Agriculture: Growers of legumes, sophistication and integration (see petencies reaping benefits of vertical pulses, wheat, rice, fruits, vegetables, figure B). integration (e.g., global beverage and corn, and other crops. They range snack company integrated all the way in size from the small family farms to upstream to potato farmers and sup- titans such as Archer Daniels Midland pliers of sugar alternatives). Assorted (ADM), Bunge, and Cargill. cooperatives, trade associations, and market organizations also play a role • Beef, chicken and pork farmers: in- aggregating product, collecting informa- cluding cow/calf operations, stocker tion, representing industry interests and and backgrounding operations, sharing knowledge. feedlots, ranchers, and Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO). Figure B. Food Value Chain particpants and their activities...a study in contrasts Page 4
  • 5. • Dairy farms and cooperatives: pro- Brokers, distributors, exporters, Food and Foodservice Wholesale distributors ducing cheese, milk and milk protein importers, traders These entities bridge the gap between and other derivative products. This portion of the supply chain en- CP companies and retailers, enabling compasses a massively diverse group CP companies to efficiently sell and • Fisherman and fish farms: that catch of large and small players that typically distribute products to diverse and and/or farm fish, shrimp and shellfish add little to no value to the physical numerous retail outlets, and delivering product itself, in fact in many cases they incremental services to the customers . Component converters, processors, abat- never even “touch” the physical prod- In many markets multiple tiers of whole- toirs, packers and repackers uct. Their role is to facilitate movement, saler and distributor may exist between While operations at this step are aggregation and trade. In Japan, mega- the primary manufacturer (i.e., the CP sometimes highly automated and tightly players such as Itochu, Mitsubishi and companies) and the retailer or restaurant. integrated with those of the farmers Mitsui are active in each of these areas. and growers, they are just as likely to Food retailers and restaurants be performed manually and dispersed Consumer products companies Food retailers used to consist almost across a web of small players. Ranging from global players that own exclusively of traditional grocery stores, and manage portfolios of familiar prod- kiosks, and restaurants but now food a) Converters of raw / bulk crops, ucts and brands (e.g., Danone, Unilever, is sold through every type of outlet livestock and other foods into com- Nestlé, Arla, Heinz, and Kraft), to local imaginable, including online. Examples ponents —slaughtering, deboning, and regional players focused on a single range from global powerhouses such peeling, cleaning, sorting, slicing, brand or category (e.g., Kikkoman, as Carrefour, Trust-Mart, Tesco, Panta- freezing, and otherwise storing, Weetabix, Utz, and Bush Brothers) to loon and Walmart to individually owned, the increasingly important private label single store locations. Restaurants also b) Processors that change the com- manufacturers who make products range from global fast food chains such position of the product through for retailers under their own labels. As as McDonalds, Jollibee, Taco Bell and cooking, mixing, grinding, and/ competition increases, critical inputs KFC to single unit, individually owned or other chemical, mechanical, become scarce and/or expensive, and restaurants. These organizations run thermal operations the geographic scope of operations the gamut in sales volume and degree Secondary and tertiary suppliers expands, CP companies are playing an of technological sophistication. Chemical, pharmaceutical, industrial increasingly active role upstream assist- and specialty companies that manu- ing and integrating with suppliers and facture and market the antibiotics, pes- connecting with end consumers to un- ticides, fertilizers, seeds, and genetic derstand their needs and preferences. material increasingly a component of to- day’s food value chain. Examples include Monsanto, BASF, DSM, Potash Corp. Page 5
  • 6. Food consumers Given the complexity of the food value The global trade in food, myriad regula- At the end of 2008 there were ap- chain effective collaboration on issues tions and inspection standards, and proximately 6.8 billion food consumers and stresses is essential. Progress has the complexity of the processed food on the planet, and by 2050, two billion been made toward developing and we eat are all complicating efforts to more will join them. Although consum- adopting standards that facilitate collab- improve food safety. In the U.S. for ers the world over crave safe, healthy, oration, however significant challenges example imports account for nearly 60 abundant food choices at relatively remain especially in the upstream end percent of the fruits and vegetables low cost, they are extremely difficult of the chain. Globalization, specializa- consumed, and 75 percent of the to please and characterize. They want tion and fragmentation of the food value seafood. However, only one percent of more information about the source and chain are exacerbating longstanding those foods are inspected before they contents of products and are connect- issues as products get handled by more enter the country. ed, concerned and empowered to get entities spread across a wider geography. that information and share it. Food safety issues present problems for A sample of cross chain and individual more than just consumers. Food grow- Stresses on the current system participant level stresses follows: ers and consumer product manufac- The current food value chain does many turers are facing a crisis of confidence things very well, from producing pro- Contaminations and recalls from their customers while they struggle digious volumes of food at a relatively This issue took center stage in 2008 to institute appropriate safety measures low direct-end price to the consumer, to and 2009 with a series of highly in the face of rising costs. Government innovating around processes, products, publicized recalls around the globe of agencies that regulate food safety are pricing and packaging. However numer- products as diverse as spinach, milk, also increasingly under fire as they ous factors are stressing the chain at peanuts, ground beef, and jalapenos try to answer the public’s demand both the participant and planetary level. sickened thousands. Awareness of for greater accountability with limited the food safety issue and its cross staff and resources. Participant Stresses channel impact has been growing and Participant stresses — typically business consumers the world over are increas- Agricultural entities related — impact or occur at the partici- ingly concerned about the safety of the Agricultural entities face an onslaught pant level, rather than a planetary level. food they eat and farmers feeling the of unique stresses. Competing in the Some business stresses — such as financial impact of recalls. A sample of increasingly competitive global market, contaminations and recalls — cut across contaminations and recalls since 2005 these organizations must often con- the entire chain and even overlap with is shown in figure C. tend with extreme price volatility, due in planetary concerns. Others — such part to biofuel production fluctuations; as high failure rates for new product widespread tariffs and import quotas; introductions — are more localized in and sometimes perverse production their impact. incentives such as those currently in place for European milk and sugar, and U.S. corn. Page 6
  • 7. Figure C. Product contaminations and recalls...a major stress on the Value Chain Additionally, costs are on the rise in The future will likely bring more, not Many CP companies are already many areas of the industry. High energy fewer pressures for these organizations, responding to these changes but rec- costs are forcing production costs including: ognize they have yet to find workable, up because oil, natural gas and their comprehensive solutions. Connec- • Rising demand for sustainable practices derivatives are essential components tions with consumers are tenuous and to modern agriculture, both to fuel • Growing concern about water usage, distrust of companies, products and machinery and as ingredients in fertil- waste and runoff brands remains high. At the same time izers and pesticides. Additionally, many • Increased need for agility due to acceptance of private label products is agricultural entities are under increas- climate changes growing. ing pressure to pay a premium for the water they use to grow crops or raise Consumer Products companies Additionally, pressure is mounting for livestock. Europe already has such The primary business of CP companies CP companies to reliably measure the a water pricing system in place and is to delight customers and consumers. impact of their operations and those other agricultural producers are bracing Today they struggle with an increas- of their suppliers. Walmart recently themselves for this potentially devastat- ingly concentrated and demanding announced creation of a sustainability ing cost increase. customer base who are just as likely to index that may soon set a benchmark be competitors. Another stress comes for the industry. Walmart leaders say in the form of a rapidly growing number they are creating the index due to the of increasingly affluent consumers, who planet’s increasing global population, are themselves concerned, connected decreasing natural resources and in and empowered to gather and share in- response to consumer demand. formation. IBM calls this dynamic group Omni Consumers. Page 7
  • 8. Lastly, CP companies are caught be- in India, who hand deliver 170,000 Planetary concerns tween a financial rock and a hard place homemade meals to office workers At the heart of planetary concerns are with consumers unwilling to pay more each day. As previously mentioned, the additional two billion people ex- for their food and rising input costs. retailers are under increased pressure pected to inhabit the planet by 2050, Indeed cocoa, tea and other commodi- to be more responsive to notoriously up from 6.8 Billion at the end of 2008. ties have hit record highs within the fickle customer demands. In a dif- These consumers are increasingly past 12-18 months. ficult economy and an oversaturated likely to live in a city, and as their in- marketplace, attempting to increase come rises their consumption of meat Wholesalers/distributors customer responsiveness and remain and dairy products will also likely rise. Wholesalers and distributors are under profitable in the face of intense com- These factors will place tremendous pressure from both upstream and petition can be a daunting task. pressures on a food value chain al- downstream value chain partners to ready straining to feed the world. evolve their role and offer enhanced ser- Consumers vices. As grocers and restaurant chains A recent, steady, stream of food The global food value chain is a study handle more of their own distribution recalls and safety warnings have in contradictions. Large segments and turn to increasingly capable mega- left many consumers fearful of the of the population are subjected to distributors and third-party logistics food they consume and distrustful hunger and scarcity alongside popu- providers, food distributors are under of companies, products and brands. lations enjoying enormous excess. attack like never before. They’re also Consumers are increasingly vocal Tragically, at the same time, vast being squeezed by unprecedented cost in their demands for safer food and amounts of food is spoiled or wasted pressures, product proliferation and dis- increased transparency about the at every stage of the production tribution complexity. In many emerging origin and contents of food. Con- process; some experts estimate up to markets the multiple tiers of distributor sumer demands are also growing for 50 percent may be lost between farm further complicate the coordination functional foods that deliver added and dinner table. At the same time and collaboration so necessary for health and/or nutritional benefits. geographic regions are increasingly efficient operations. To that end, many consumer prod- subjected to alternating periods of ucts manufacturers are focusing on excessive rainfall, and then drought. Retailers and restaurants successfully launching new items to While the local food movement is As the number of channels through satisfy the increased preference of gaining increased traction, the major- which food is sold has proliferated so consumers for health and wellness. ity of food is produced far from where have the challenges. Retailers now In the last five years, there has been it is ultimately consumed, being prepare foods, own brands and sell 38 percent increase in marketing food shipped thousands of miles before ar- meals. Prepared food is sold through and beverages as “better for you.” riving in your local store or restaurant. gas stations, hardware stores, coffee Satisfying this concerned, connected shops and kiosks. The proliferation and empowered consumer is an ever of quick service restaurants (QSR) evolving stress on the value chain. globally has exploded requirements for food service and food is delivered to your home, office or other location. At the same time traditional channels remain, such as the Dabbawallas Page 8
  • 9. Although for many consumers it may In the next few paragraphs we will focus Consumption still be hard to appreciate the planetary in on a couple of the major planetary Exacerbating the impacts of population implications of the food they eat. In- stressors on the global food value chain: growth are changing consumption pat- creasingly the impact of the global food terns. In 2008 for the first time humans Population value chain is being measured, com- ate more farmed fish than wild fish, from Although many experts believe that we municated and appreciated. From the tilapia, to salmon, to cod. Other pat- currently produce enough food to feed land and water required to raise cattle terns are also changing. It is well docu- the planet’s inhabitants, the world’s or grow grain to the energy required to mented that as incomes rise, so does population is growing. At the end of create, transport and distribute food consumption of meat, fish and dairy. 2008, the world’s population reached products and the amount of food that Between 1990 and 2005 China’s popu- 6.8 billion. By 2020, that number is ex- is wasted or spoiled along the way vis- lation increased by approximately 161 pected to rise to nearly 8 billion and by ibility to these costs is increasing. million (14 percent) and over the same 2050 the world’s population may well time period per capita pork consump- From a planetary perspective, the prob- exceed 9 billion. This unprecedented tion nearly doubled, going from 19.7 lems are many and serious. How can population growth will likely drive deep Kg to 37.9 Kg. The resulting increase food growers and producers continue changes for every member of the global in Chinese annual pork consumption of to meet consumers’ demands efficiently food value chain who will be forced to 27.1 M tonnes represents roughly 360 amidst price volatility, shortages, climate do continually more with less. million additional pigs, which require changes and government interventions? 155,000 km2 of farmland, an area Estimates are that the incremental How can consumers ensure the food roughly the size of England and Wales. population, coupled with changing they eat is safe, ethically produced, consumption (see next section) will healthy and affordable? And how can With global demand for meat and require a 70 percent increase in global the players in the historically-siloed food poultry expected to rise 25 percent by food production. The acreage needed value chain integrate their thinking and 2015, many difficult questions loom. for such an increase in production is their processes with each other to cre- How can food producers meet the ris- estimated at approximately 300 million ate a smart, sustainable system that will ing demand? Are existing methods for acres, an area roughly three times the benefit the Earth and its inhabitants for fattening livestock sustainable, safe and size of California. many generations to come? ethical? How can consumers balance their need for affordable food against For a growing number of countries the their desire for responsible products? issue of food security is taking on a Where will we find the necessary land? whole new level of relevance and driv- Finding answers for these and related ing some major shifts in ownership of questions is crucial for developing food agricultural resources. production processes that are optimal for all members of the global food value chain, and for planet Earth. Especially since these foods require large land areas, massive quantities of water, Page 9
  • 10. prodigious amounts of energy and Water-related issues will likely increase Kilocalorie / BTU generate significant volumes of waste. in number and complexity as popula- Energy – and more specifically oil and An additional concern is that overcon- tions rise, urban areas expand, and natural gas – is perhaps the second sumption of these foods and changes climate change, drought and farming most important input to today’s food in lifestyle are a contributor to the global practices affect crop yields and avail- value chain. Sixty years ago, food obesity and health crisis. able arable land. In 1950 there was producers could create a calorie of food 1.2 acres of arable land per person, by with less than half a calorie of fossil H20 2010 it is forecast to be just 0.52 acres. fuel. Today, a single calorie of modern Until quite recently water — arguably the One manifestation is a burgeoning supermarket food may require up to 10 single most important input to the food global trade in virtual water, as countries calories of fossil fuel to produce. One value chain — was a frequently under- with limited water acquire overseas study conducted in 2000 estimated that addressed issue in many food chain farmland to bolster domestic food ten percent of the energy used annu- discussions, its continued availability security (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi ally in the U.S. was consumed by the at little to no cost considered a given. and Qatar acquiring farmland in Sudan, food industry. However there is a growing apprecia- Egypt, Ukraine, and Pakistan). tion that agriculture is the single largest human use of water and that current Governments will likely play an increas- policies and practices are very likely ingly active role in finding a balance unsustainable. The underlying issues across industrial, agricultural, environ- are myriad but include degradation of mental and municipal water uses. aquifers, rivers and lakes to support crop irrigation, risk of runoff from the lagoons of animal waste created by concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFO), continued high levels of food waste and spoilage in the supply chain, deforestation that degrades water retention as developing world farmers seek new, productive acreage, and consumer thirst for bottled water, soft drinks and beer. Figure D. Water...an essential component in food production and distribution Page 10
  • 11. Increased demand for biofuels such Let’s build a smarter food supply is rarely consumed where it is grown or as ethanol has generated a unique While technology alone cannot deliver a raised, frequently exported to low cost set of problems with the world’s food solution to the myriad stresses impact- markets for processing or packaging, supply. Biofuels gained popularity as a ing the food value chain, its application then re-exported as a finished product way to potentially wean countries from to create a smarter food value chain— for consumption. For example, cod their reliance on oil and combat rising one that is increasingly instrumented, in- caught off the coasts of Norway may fuel costs. But today, an estimated 25 terconnected and intelligent—is essential. be shipped to China for processing percent of U.S. corn is now converted into filets, only to be shipped back to to ethanol and goes to fuel vehicles Why will a smarter food value chain be Norway as a finished product for sale to rather than people or animals. In the instrumented? Because it will use sens- consumers. This inflates logistics costs meantime, high oil prices contribute to ing and tracing technologies, such as and increases waste due to spoilage, higher food prices by raising the cost of satellites, radio frequency identification damage or contamination. food-production-related items such as (RFID) and barcodes, heat and moisture fertilizer and transportation. monitors, and global positioning sys- Finally, a smarter food value chain will tems (GPS) to enhance overall supply be intelligent—capturing, leveraging and CO2 / °Fahrenheit / °Celsius chain visibility as meat, fish, dairy and sharing standardized data and inte- A growing chorus of reasoned and produce moves from the farm or field to grated information to generate insights informed voices are raising the alarm the fork, lowering waste and spoilage on optimizing the value chain. Smart about the global impacts of climate and reducing costs. Sensors can also technology can improve the complex change on agriculture. At a time when enable more efficient production meth- process that is the production, distri- the energy conversion ratio for many of ods by reducing irrigation, pesticide bution, storage, selling, consumption our foods continues to trend towards and fertilizer requirements, boosting and disposal of food. Elements include inefficiency and the environmental im- yields and monitoring moisture, tem- improved planning and coordination, pact of the food value chain is increas- perature and airflow during storage to efficient storage and dynamic routing, ingly documented and understood, reduce spoilage. optimization for cost, carbon and other climate change represents perhaps the attributes and improved traceability. The most important stress on the global A smarter global food value chain will result can be more, safer, higher quality food value chain. However the impact also be interconnected—with the dispa- food delivered when and where it is of climate change likely extends beyond rate ranches, farms, packers, feedlots, needed, and with reduced waste and the immediate and visible. A recent storage bins, manufacturing and pro- an extended shelf life. report from the United Nations Food cessing plants, warehouses, distribution and Agriculture Organization anticipates centers, and retail stores sharing infor- climate change will also increase food mation and insights. This connectivity safety risks (increasing incidence of is increasingly important as food today contamination by Salmonella, Campylo- bacter, E. coli and Salmonella). Page 11
  • 12. Elements of a smarter food supply can • Sensors technology and actuators • Integrated communication systems be found and imagined for application can be used to identify and respond enable those at the top of the food at every step in the global value food to threats across the supply chain value chain to seamlessly share in- chain: (e.g., excessive humidity or heat, formation about anticipated growth or contamination). Companies like and demand with downstream, cre- Commodity and specialty products provid- Total Grain Management offer such ating a stronger link between supply ers / primary producers technologies that monitor conditions and demand Given the fragmentation and historic in grain silos and adjust humidity and lack of technological sophistication heat to reduce spoilage and forma- • Application of genetic manipulation among many participants in this area tion of potentially harmful mycotoxins. and nano-technology to animals of the supply chain there are many and crops to deliver drought and opportunities for greater instrumenta- • Sensors can automatically adjust pest resistance, nutrition and other tion, intelligence and interconnectivity, water usage based on local and re- functional benefits. Already 64% of including: gional dynamics (e.g., fluctuations in the world’ soybeans and 24% of corn seasonal/daily industrial or residential is genetically modified • Farmers can use GPS and ad- water requirements vanced sensor technology to monitor Consumer products companies weather patterns, assess soil and Smart CP companies can • Systems and tools can be used to crop conditions, and adjust their drive standardization of food related water, fertilizer and pesticide usage • Leverage the widespread adoption processes to mitigate risk and reduce for optimal efficiency. of data standards such as GS1, the both spoilage and waste. A powerful power middleware and other com- example of this dynamic can be seen • Farmers, growers and even fishermen munications platforms to continu- in the increasing adoption of pro- in less developed regions are using ously coordinate inventories, produc- grams such as the Consumer Goods mobile phones to access market, tion plans and sales forecasts with Forum’s Global Food Safety Initiative. scientific, and environmental data and customers and suppliers to create a knowledge through services such as consistent, seamless, link between • Serialization and tagging technol- Farmers Friend in Uganda, 12582. groups. ogy, coupled with the application com in China, mKrishi in India. In this of standardized nomenclature for way they can boost yields as well as • Embrace and enable the concepts participants, locations and products, their own returns by boosting price and principles of Open Innovation enables true end to end traceability realized and reducing production costs. by connecting with a diverse set of across the supply chain. internal and external stakeholders and other interested parties to ac- cess ideas, technologies, ingredients, and other assets. In the process accelerating the new product creation process, lowering costs and boosting success rates. Page 12
  • 13. • Reduce water usage in production, Wholesalers and distributors Retailers and restaurants packaging and products themselves Smart wholesales and distributions In this frequently oversaturated mar- by marketing concentrated versions are deploying RFID, 2D barcodes, and ketplace, many retailers and restau- of liquid based products (e.g., laundry other identification technologies to rateurs are finding they must take a and dish detergent), reusing water in track products as they move through multi-pronged approach to retaining production processes, the chain. Such technologies enable customers and attracting new ones. companies to continuously coordinate Strategies include: • Deploy advanced monitoring tools to inventories, production plans and listen and understand the concerns sales forecasts with retail or restau- • Maintaining a seamless connection of customers and consumers about rant customers and CP company with consumers that transcends their products, brands and companies suppliers for uninterrupted planning location, allowing them to dynami- in areas such as traceability, social and communication. cally and continuously search, review, responsibility, sustainability, and apply purchase and take acceptance of advanced analytics to convert those Additionally, smart wholesalers and products and services leveraging observations into actionable insights distributors can optimize supply chain devices such as mobile phones, in such as new products, promotions software to minimize distribution costs store kiosks, and hand held devices, and distribution strategies. (e.g., storage, transportation) for identification and preference informa- multiple positive outcomes, includ- tion garnered from web searches, • Deploy sensors (e.g., RFID tags, ing increased profit and a decreased loyalty cards and purchase history, thermometers and psychrometers) to carbon footprint. supporting technologies such as track location and monitor heat and video surveillance, GPS and web humidity throughout their production, monitoring, and advanced text, data packaging and storage operations and video analytics. and connected intelligent actuators to automatically effect changes to • Improving the in-store experience. processes, conditions and operations This can be accomplished by provid- to boost efficiency, service and safety. ing more value added services to consumers through in-store offerings • Dynamically optimize their supply such kiosks, shopping cart PCs, or chain operations against both tradi- self checkout features as well as out- tional metrics (e.g., $ cost, customer of-store offerings such as Website service, asset utilization) and new interactions or services. metrics (e.g., fuel, H20, and C02). Page 13
  • 14. • Adjusting forecasts, orders and Consumers Sequencing the cocoa genome inventories based on weather, sea- Usually, considered the end of the IBM Research, the U.S. Department of Agri- sonal, calendar, competitive, price, global food value chain, consum- culture and Mars, Incorporated are teaming availability and other conditions ers are still driving many changes up and through their collaboration, they upstream. “Smart” consumers use • Ensuring in-stock positions to hope to sequence the genome that makes technology in myriad ways to become reduce lost sales, experimenting cocoa, the key ingredient of chocolate. even smarter, including: with new formats and channels (See Researchers plan to use IBM’s computa- the IBM report on multi-channel) • Using online and mobile coupons tional biology technology and expertise to http://www-935.ibm.com/ser- • Selectively shopping online based on develop a detailed genetic map, identifying vices/us/index.wss/ibvstudy/imc/ availability, price and convenience the specific genetic traits that produce a1016279?cntxt=a1000063 higher cocoa plant yields and resist • Continued challenges coordinat- • Researching products and compa- drought or pests. ing promotions, new product nies online — both through structured and controlled content such as com- But like any sweet treat, the results of introductions and day-to-day pany Websites and through unstruc- this research will be better when shared. business with CP suppliers - See tured and uncontrolled content such Mars will make the genome information the press release on data sharing: as social networking sites, online available for free through the Public Intel- http://www-935.ibm.com/ser- communities and blogs lectual Property Resource for Agriculture vices/us/index.wss/summary/imc/ (PIPRA), which supports agricultural a1031441?cntxt=a1000063 • Sharing information, insights and innovation for both humanitarian and • Developing the capabilities needed to opinions in real time with other con- small-scale commercial purposes. support rapidly growing private label sumers and directly with manufacturers business (e.g., retailers increasingly and other stakeholders such as NGO need brand management, shopper • Investigating products and their impacts insights, marketing capabilities) Page 14
  • 15. Conclusion For further information The stresses on the food value chain are Getting Real About the High Price of pervasive, profound and persistent and Cheap Food (Time Magazine, August 21, while solutions are not easy, technology is 2009) http://www.time.com/time/health/ no longer the barrier it once was. A smart- article/0,8599,1917458-1,00.html er food value chain is not just possible, but imperative. By leveraging the collective Cargill’s Inside View Helps It Buck Down- and synergistic power of intelligence, turn (The Wall Street Journal, January instrumentation and interconnectivity we 14, 2009) http://online.wsj.com/article/ can make that imperative a reality. SB123189501407679581.html Why IBM? Health Ills Abound as Farm Runoff Technology is shaping how food grows, Fouls Wells (The New York Times, how it tastes and how it gets to your September 17, 2009) http://www. plate. A smarter global food system would nytimes.com/2009/09/18/us/18dairy. help eliminate waste, improve quality and html?scp=2&sq=runoff&st=cse ensure safety. IBM has the technology solutions and expertise to make it happen. To find out how we can help your organi- zation build a smarter food supply chain, contact your IBM representative or visit: http://www.ibm.com/ibm/ideasfromibm/ us/smartplanet/topics/food/20081208/ index.shtml Page 15
  • 16. ® © Copyright IBM Corporation 2009 IBM Global Business Services Route 100 Somers, NY 10589 U.S.A. Produced in the United States of America December 2009 All Rights Reserved IBM, the IBM logo and ibm.com are trademarks or registered trademarks of International Busi- ness Machines Corporation in the United States, other countries, or both. If these and other IBM trademarked terms are marked on their first occurrence in this information with a trademark symbol (® or ™), these symbols indicate U.S. registered or common law trademarks owned by IBM at the time this information was published. Such trademarks may also be registered or com- mon law trademarks in other countries. A current list of IBM trademarks is available on the Web at “Copyright and trademark information” at ibm. com/legal/copytrade.shtml Other company, product and service names may be trademarks or service marks of others. References in this publication to IBM products and services do not imply that IBM intends to make them available in all countries in which IBM operates. CPW0-3002-USEN-00