The World Bank held consultations in Phase 1 of developing its Education Strategy 2020, meeting with countries representing Africa, South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa. Key themes from consultations in low-income countries and middle-income countries were discussed. The document presented population projections and economic growth projections for 2020 to frame education challenges. It outlined strategic directions for the Bank to increase learning for all by strengthening education systems through diagnostic tools, data, learning assessments, research and results-based financing. The Bank will take a differentiated approach depending on countries' economic development and education system capacity.
World Bank Education Strategy 2020 Consultations Insights
1. World Bank Education Strategy 2020
Phase II Consultations
Education Sector Board
The World Bank
October 2010
1
2. External consultation meetings, Phase 1
Region
Number of Countries
Represented
Africa
16
Number of countries that
hosted a consultation
meeting
4
South Asia
3
2
East Asia and the Pacific
8
4
Latin America and the
Caribbean
Middle East and North Africa
11
4
4
2
Eastern Europe and Central
Asia
Donors
13
2
13
6
TOTAL
69
24
2
6. How will the world look in 2020?
What will be the demands on education
and on education systems?
6
7. Population in Low Income Countries 2020
Demographic futures
shape education
challenges
What does demographics
tell us about demands
on education system?
High dependency ratio in
LICs: adults have to take
care of more children
Tax base is smaller in LICs
than in MICs
Demographic dividends in
MICs
75+
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
100000 80000 60000 40000 20000
0
20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Populations in Thousands
Female
Male
Population Projections in Middle Income Countries 2020
75+
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
250000 200000 150000 100000 50000
0
50000 100000 150000 200000 250000
Populations in Thousands
Female
Male
7
8. The rise of new economic stars
Trillions of 1995
international $
16
Real GDP (PPP): Projections 2004-2015 (Using 1991-2003 Average Growth Rates)
India
Canada
Italy
Russian Federation
14
China
France
Japan
United Kingdom
Brazil
Germany
Mexico
United States
China
United States
12
10
India
France
8
Italy
Brazil
United
Kingdom
Russian
Federation
Mexico
Germany
6
Japan
Canada
4
2
0
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Rodriguez, 2008
2015
8
9. Poverty has declined … but less so in Africa
Percentage of population living with less than PPP$2/day
1990
East Asia & Pacific
China
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America &
Caribbean
Middle East & North
Africa
South Asia
India
Sub-Saharan Africa
2005
2015
2020
79.8
84.6
6.9
38.7
36.3
8.9
19.4
16.0
5.0
14.3
12.0
4.1
19.7
16.6
11.1
9.7
19.7
16.9
8.3
6.6
82.7
82.6
76.2
73.9
75.6
73.0
57.0
58.0
59.6
51.0
51.9
55.4
9
10. Short-term growth projections
World
Developing countries
2009
2010
2011
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP
-2.2
2.7
3.2
1.2
5.2
5.8
Real GDP (PPP)
-1.0
3.5
4.0
1.8
5.5
6.0
• Main drag on global growth comes from high-income
countries, with implications for external aid resources
• Robust prospects in developing countries for recovery in
2010
10
11. What else has changed since 2000?
Shifts in global politics, environment and security concerns
Greater adoption of Information and Communication
Technology
More complex aid architecture and Paris & Accra declarations
11
12. So … what do these changes mean for
education challenges?
How to increase learning opportunities in countries where
the school-age population is growing rapidly?
How to afford post-basic education while still expanding
basic education?
How to improve the quality of education while still
expanding education?
How to ensure that youth enter the workforce with
productive and employable skills?
12
13. So … what do these
changes mean for
education
challenges?
13
14. Every child
has a right to
an education.
A country’s wealth and its prospects for
development depends on the quality of its
people—
And
education
yields huge
benefits for
individuals, fa
milies, comm
unities, and
society.
the skills and creativity of its workers,
One additional year
the capability of its leaders toCountries with high female
govern well and to
of schooling
increases an
manage its resources, and
education coped with
individual’s wage by
extreme weather events
better than5-10%.
countries with
the ability of its adult generation to raise healthy,
same income and weather
educated and happy children – the next
conditions (Blankespoor,
“HalfDasgupta, Wheeler 2010)
the reduction in child
generation.
mortality over the past 40 years can
be attributed to the better
education of women.” (Lancet
9/2010) One additional year in
average education of women
reduces child deaths by 9.5%. 14
15. Strategic directions for 2020
Bank’s mission in
education
Strategic directions
to achieve results
Implementation
levers
Overall purpose of
in education atIncrease
the
country level
learning for all
16. rates in primary education
100
90
70 % 80
60
Increase in net enrollment
50
Greater pressure on
post-primary education
Primary net enrollment rates by income group
2000
2001
… and primary completion
2004
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
Lower middle income
High income
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010
50
60
%
70
80
90
100
Primary completion rates by income group
40
secondary and tertiary
education
2003
Low income
Upper middle income
World
rates
Growing demand for
2002
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
2005
Low income
Upper middle income
World
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics in EdStats, Sep 2010
2006
2007
2008
Lower middle income
High income
16
17. … but large disparities remain within countries
% of youth ages 15-19 who completed a given grade: Latest available data
1
1
1
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Poorest quintile
Quintile 3
Richest quintile
Nigeria 2008
7
8
Quintile 2
Quintile 4
9
1
2
3
4
5
6
Poorest quintile
Quintile 3
Richest quintile
Egypt 2008
7
Quintile 2
Quintile 4
8
9
1
2
3
4
Poorest quintile
Quintile 3
Richest quintile
5
6
7
8
9
Quintile 2
Quintile 4
Indonesia 2007
17
18. Within-country inequalities are as big as —
if not bigger — than between-country inequalities
1
Grade 6 completion of 15-19 year olds in the richest and poorest quintiles.
0.8
Proportion
0.6
0.4
0.2
Burundi
Rwanda
Niger
Burkina Faso
Guinea-Bissau
Chad
Angola
Mozambique
Burkina Faso
Senegal
Ethiopia
Mali
Guinea
Comoros
C.A.R.
Liberia
Madagascar
Cote d'Ivoire
Mauritania
Mauritania
Togo
Benin
Sierra Leone
DR Congo
Uganda
Gambia
Malawi
Cameroon
Lesotho
Tanzania
Congo Rep.
Gabon
Nigeria
Zambia
Ghana
Swaziland
Kenya
Namibia
South Africa
Zimbabwe
0
Richest quintile
Poorest quintile
Average grade 6 completion
Source: Filmer, Deon. 2010. “Education Attainment and Enrollment around the World: An International Database.” http://econ.worldbank.org/projects/edattain.
19. Learning takes place throughout life
ECD
Formal schooling
Training
100
Primary level
90
Secondary level Tertiary level
80
Out-of-school youth
70
Nutrition, hea
lth
care, parental
training, ECE
60
50
Second chance
education and skills
training
Age-enrollment profile
Children & youth in school
40
30
20
% learning goals achieved
10
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Age in years
14
16
18
20
22
24
19
20. Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning
Inequalities in SACMEQ 2000, Reading test scores
650
600
550
500
450
400
Richest quintile of students
Source: Filmer, based on analysis of SACMEQ 2000 database
Poorest quintile of students
Average score
Seychelles
Kenya
Tanzania
Mauritius
Swaziland
Botswana
Mozambique
South Africa
Uganda
Lesotho
Namibia
Zambia
Malawi
350
21. Richest quintile of students
Source: Filmer, based on analysis of TIMSS 2007 database
Poorest quintile of students
Average score
Korea, Rep. Of
Russian Fed.
United States
Lithuania
Armenia
Serbia
Malaysia
Bulgaria
Ukraine
Romania
Bosnia And Herz.
Lebanon
Thailand
Turkey
Mongolia
Jordan
Tunisia
Georgia
Iran
Indonesia
Syrian Arab Rep.
Egypt
Algeria
Morocco
Colombia
Botswana
El Salvador
Ghana
Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning
TIMSS 2007, Grade 8 Mathematics test scores
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
22. Strategic directions for 2020
Bank’s mission in
education
Strategic directions
to achieve results
Implementation
levers
Overall purpose of
in education atIncrease
the
country level
learning for all
Improve policy &
investment effectiveness in
countries by
Strengthening countries’
education systems
Improve global debate by
Building a high-quality
knowledge base of data &
analyses
23. What is an
education
system?
An education
system is a
network of power
& accountability
relationships for
delivering
learning results
Central & local
governments
State & nonstate providers
of learning
Relationships of
accountability
Communities, p
rivate
sector, CSOs, h
ouseholds
23
24. The new strategy differs from previous Bank
strategies with respect to its system perspective
2000
Quality
Education for All
Priorities:
Basic education
(poor, girls)
Early interventions
(ECD, school health)
Innovative delivery
Systemic reform
Update 2005
Education for All
for the knowledge
economy
for cohesive societies
Priorities:
Education in a
countrywide perspective
Sector-wide approach
Results orientation
24
25. Strategic directions for 2020
Bank’s mission in
education
Strategic directions
to achieve results
Overall purpose of
in education atIncrease
the
country level
Improve policy &
investment effectiveness in
countries by
Strengthening countries’
education systems
Knowledge
Implementation
levers
learning for all
--System diagnostic &
benchmarking tools
& data
--Learning
assessments
-- Research & Impact
evaluations
Improve global debate by
Building a high-quality
knowledge base of data &
analyses
26. What is an
education
system?
An education
system is a
network of power
& accountability
relationships for
delivering
learning results
Central & local
governments
State & nonstate providers
of learning
Relationships of
accountability
Communities, p
rivate
sector, CSOs, h
ouseholds
Foundation of evidence: reliable data at all levels of the
system; know-how about what works, what doesn’t, and why
26
27. Diagnostic tools for education system
System diagnostic tools to:
Analyze alignment of core functions with
allocation of resources and authority
Measure outputs and outcomes, not only inputs
Measure learning outcomes and skills, not only
school enrollment
Monitor not only public providers but also nonstate providers
Benchmark system performance
Use to benchmark system
27
28. Strategic directions for 2020
Bank’s mission in
education
Strategic directions
to achieve results
Overall purpose of
in education atIncrease
the
country level
learning for all
Improve policy &
investment effectiveness in
countries by
Strengthening countries’
education systems
Improve global debate by
Building a high-quality
knowledge base of data &
analyses
Knowledge
Implementation
levers
--System diagnostic &
benchmarking tools
& data
--Learning
assessments
-- Research & Impact
evaluations
Bank products
--System-oriented
technical support
--Results-based
financing
29. Results-based financing
From financing inputs to financing outputs and results
Disbursement against pre-specified implementation
progress and performance targets
Disbursements could be linked to:
Products
Changes in institutions
Changes in incentive structures
Changes in policies
29
30. Strategic directions for 2020
Bank’s mission in
education
Strategic directions
to achieve results
Overall purpose of
in education atIncrease
the
country level
learning for all
Improve policy &
investment effectiveness in
countries by
Strengthening countries’
education systems
Improve global debate by
Building a high-quality
knowledge base of data &
analyses
Knowledge
Implementation
levers
--System diagnostic &
benchmarking tools
& data
--Learning
assessments
-- Research & Impact
evaluations
Bank organization
Bank products
--System-oriented
technical support
--Results-based
financing
--Practice groups
--Multisectoral
approach
--Staff learning
--Strategic
partnerships
32. Net enrollment rate (%), secondary
100
By income
Azerbaijan
Seychelles
Lithuania
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Portugal
Bulgaria
Malta
Chile
Jordan
80
Tajikistan
Mongolia
Kyrgyz Republic
Moldova
Fiji
60
Samoa
Cape Verde
Paraguay
Hong Kong, China
Lebanon
Maldives Turkey Mexico
Malaysia
Belize
El Salvador
Kenya
Gambia,Bangladesh
The
Lao PDR
Cambodia
Timor-Leste
Guinea
Lesotho
Sierra Leone
Madagascar
Togo
40
Marshall Islands
Djibouti
Niger
Per Capita Income, 2000 dollars (*)
Fragile States
Lower middle income
High income
(*) Income shown in log scale
Low income
Upper middle income
32
60000
40000
20000
0
20
Enrollment rate
Differentiated
approach by
countries’
economic
development &
capacity of the
education
system
33. Differentiated
approach by
countries’
economic
development &
capacity of the
education
system
Are teacher
Compensatory
Is funding
Learning
policies linked
assessment
programs
linked to
to learning
capacity
results?
results?
C
Mature
B
C
Established
D
B
A
D
Emerging
A
Latent
Poorest LICs
Richest MICs
GDP per capita
33
34. Performance indicators 2020
Knowledge
Bank
Organization
Bank Products
1. Availability of diagnostic tools for education subsystems
2. Number of research & impact evaluations on
policies and interventions that use a systems
approach
3. Development of skills measurement tool beyond
measures of basic competencies
4. Development & implementation of capacity
development program around the systems
approach
5. Development of system-oriented staff practice
groups
6. Number of loans/credits that have used resultsbased financing
7. Number of loans/credits that supported countries
to carry out learning assessments and/or
participate in regional or international assessments
8. Number of countries furthest from the Millennium
Development Goals in 2010 that have received
financial and technical assistance from the Bank
34
35. Impact indicators 2020
1.
Knowledge
2.
Bank
Organization
3.
4.
Bank Products
5.
Number of countries that have applied system
diagnostic tool, collected and used system
data
Number of countries that have applied skills
measurement tool, collected and used skills
data
Number of loans/credits with satisfactory
outcomes
Number of loans/credits that have used a
multisectoral approach
Number of assisted countries that have
progressed significantly towards MDGs
35
36. MDG
2000
0
0
20
1000
40
Million US$
3000
60
4000
EFA
5000
MDG
80
EFA
100
Commitments to education from IDA, IBRD and total
(constant 2005 million US$)
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
IDA
Total education lending
10
EFA
IBRD
MDG
Education as % of total World Bank lending
15
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
5
%
Trends in the World Bank’s
lending for education, FY1963FY2010
0
Projects
Total number of projects with education component
1960 1965 1970
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
2010
36
38. Focus of current WB education portfolio
• About half supports poorest countries
through IDA funds
• 49% supports basic education
• 51% supports post-basic education
• 75% includes teacher development
• 50% includes learning assessments
• More than100 knowledge products on
education
38
39. Discussion questions
1. Do the strategic priorities reflect the challenges &
goals of partner countries?
2. How do we strengthen education systems to
improve results?
3. How do we improve the global knowledge base on
education systems and learning?
Thank you
39
40. World Bank’s lending for education
(in constant 2005 US$)
5,000
4,500
Total
(IDA+IBRD)
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
IDA
1,500
IBRD
1,000
500
0
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
40
41. .8
.6
.2
.4
About 50% of
Kenyan youth
who completed
grade 6 cannot
read a simple
sentence
0
Proportion
of 15-19
year olds
who can
read a
simple
sentence,
by highest
grade
completed
1
Beyond enrollment, a focus on learning
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Grade
Dominican Rep. 2007
Mali 2006
Kenya 2008-09
Nepal 2006
7
90% of Malian
youth who
completed grade
4 cannot read a
simple sentence
41
Hinweis der Redaktion
Multiple issues. Access, governance, funding, ICT are main concerns in LICsThe Bank’s role in developing partnerships and coordination, as well as in knowledge generation-dissemination (sharing best practices) was mentioned by all groups of countries. It was also mentioned the importance of considering local context particular needs.Quality, learning, equity, relevance, teachers and governance are main concerns.
MICs’ main concerns regard equity, quality, relevance (links-education and labor markets), management and teachers. Role of the Bank: Knowledge generation and dissemination (sharing best-practices, data collection)
Although global growth is expected to return to positive territory in 2010, the pace of the recovery will be slow and subject to uncertainty. Global output is forecast to contract by 2.2 percent in 2009, but to register positive growth of 2.7 and 3.2 percent in 2010 and 2011 respectively. The main drag on global growth is coming from high-income countries, whose economies are expected to have contracted by 3.2 percent in 2009. Prospects for developing countries are for a relatively robust recovery in 2010, with growth of 5.1 percent in aggregate. Output should strengthen further in 2011 but only modestly rising to 5.1 percent for the developing aggregate as a whole and 4.2 percent for developing countries excluding China, India and Europe and Central Asia.
A quarter of states eligible for assistance from the International Development Association (IDA) are experiencing conflict, and poverty rates in these countries are far worse than in IDA countries as a whole. Many other IDA countries are considered fragile, and thereby at risk of violent conflict. Nor is conflict confined to poor countries: a number of middle- and high-income nations are affected by severe sub-national and crime-related violence. The MDG Monitor reports that no fragile state tracked by the monitor has achieved a single MDG. Consistently, these countries lag behind non-fragile states on progress towards these goals. For MDGs 1, 5, 6 and 7 (reduce poverty, improve maternal health, combat HIV/AIDS and other diseases and ensure environmental sustainability) only three percent to 17 percent of fragile states are on track to achieve these goals, versus 27percent to 48 percent for non-fragile states. (WDR 2010)Nascent efforts are underway to explore various aspects of the emerging phenomenon of the use of mobile phones in education, but no institution has stepped forward to help catalyze global collaboration and cooperation around research directions and agenda setting in this area. 28% of Africans now have a mobile phone subscription, according to data released by the ITU earlier this year, part of a larger trend that sees two out of every three mobile subscribers around the world living in a developing country.