1. April 2015 Consumer Confidence – Conference Board
Conclusion
April 2015 consumerconfidence,asmeasuredbythe Conference Board,declined fromthe previousmonth but
remainabove levelsseenayearago. At a highlevel,consumerconfidence generally, remainsbelow the peaklevels
seenimmediatelypriortothe 2008-2009 recession.
Most interestingtothiswriteristhatconsumerconfidenceintheirfuture hasnotmovedhigherinalmostaye ar. It
appearsthat lowergaspriceshad nomaterial impacton future expectationsand,insteadimpactedonlypresent
conditions.
As readersof thisnote know,we focusour analysisonconfidence measuredbylevel of income. Froman income
perspective, consumerconfidence isanalmostperfectreflectionof the economicdatawe are seeingoverall. Those
earningat the highendare veryconfidentandout-performingthe marketoverall while those atincome levelsbelow
the highestendare underperformingthe populationoverall bythe largestmarginever(incontrastto pre-recession
timeswhenthose atthe highestlevelsof income aswell asall otherlevelsof income tendedtoperform inline with
everyone else).
Analysis
April 2015 consumerconfidence,asmeasuredbythe Conference Board,was95.2 versus101.4 in March 2015 and
81.7 in April 2014. The currentlevel placesusbackat levelsseenin2005 as the housingbubble washeadingtowards
itsclimax.

2. Takinga stepback, most the recentimprovementshave come fromconsumer’sassessmentof theirpresentsituation
as their assessmentoftheir future situation has remainedmostlyconstant since March 2014. Perhapsconsumers
viewdecliningenergypricesas“temporary”:
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2/1/1967
11/1/1968
8/1/1970
5/1/1972
2/1/1974
11/1/1975
8/1/1977
5/1/1979
2/1/1981
11/1/1982
8/1/1984
5/1/1986
2/1/1988
11/1/1989
8/1/1991
5/1/1993
2/1/1995
11/1/1996
8/1/1998
5/1/2000
2/1/2002
11/1/2003
8/1/2005
5/1/2007
2/1/2009
11/1/2010
8/1/2012
5/1/2014
Consumer Confidence, Conference Board, Total
Consumer Confidence, Conference Board, Total

3. Lookingbeneaththe headline,consumerconfidence isconsistentwithmostof the othereconomic datawe continue
to receive:strongatthe highend,middlingatthe middle andlow atthe low end. This issomewhatsurprisinggiven
the declinesinenergypricesshouldhave translatedmoststronglytothose atthe middle andbottomof the income
levels.
The highestincome earners(lightblue line)have fullyrecoveredfromthe recessionwhile thosebelowthe highest
earnershave notseena full returnintheirconfidence:
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1/1/2007
4/1/2007
7/1/2007
10/1/2007
1/1/2008
4/1/2008
7/1/2008
10/1/2008
1/1/2009
4/1/2009
7/1/2009
10/1/2009
1/1/2010
4/1/2010
7/1/2010
10/1/2010
1/1/2011
4/1/2011
7/1/2011
10/1/2011
1/1/2012
4/1/2012
7/1/2012
10/1/2012
1/1/2013
4/1/2013
7/1/2013
10/1/2013
1/1/2014
4/1/2014
7/1/2014
10/1/2014
1/1/2015
4/1/2015
Consumer Confidence (2007-Present): Present Conditions
versus Future Expectations
Present Situation Future Expectations

4. The highestwage earnerscontinue tooutperformthe populationoverall andthis differential isaccelerating:
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1/1/1989
11/1/1989
9/1/1990
7/1/1991
5/1/1992
3/1/1993
1/1/1994
11/1/1994
9/1/1995
7/1/1996
5/1/1997
3/1/1998
1/1/1999
11/1/1999
9/1/2000
7/1/2001
5/1/2002
3/1/2003
1/1/2004
11/1/2004
9/1/2005
7/1/2006
5/1/2007
3/1/2008
1/1/2009
11/1/2009
9/1/2010
7/1/2011
5/1/2012
3/1/2013
1/1/2014
11/1/2014
Consumer Confidence, Conference Board, By Income
<$15k $15-25k $25-35k $35-50k >$50k

5. Those justunderthe highest income levelscontinue tounderperform confidence overall. Theiroverallconfidence
level isnowwhere itwasearlyinthe 2003-2007 recovery:
Those at the medianwage ($28k) continue to underperformthe population. Asagroup,they are now as confident
as theywere backin 2003-2004 before the recoverybegan:
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1/1/1989
11/1/1989
9/1/1990
7/1/1991
5/1/1992
3/1/1993
1/1/1994
11/1/1994
9/1/1995
7/1/1996
5/1/1997
3/1/1998
1/1/1999
11/1/1999
9/1/2000
7/1/2001
5/1/2002
3/1/2003
1/1/2004
11/1/2004
9/1/2005
7/1/2006
5/1/2007
3/1/2008
1/1/2009
11/1/2009
9/1/2010
7/1/2011
5/1/2012
3/1/2013
1/1/2014
11/1/2014
Consumer Confidence, Total versus $50k+ Wage Earners,
Indexed to 1/1989
$50k+ Wage Earners Consumer Confidence Total
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1/1/1989
11/1/1989
9/1/1990
7/1/1991
5/1/1992
3/1/1993
1/1/1994
11/1/1994
9/1/1995
7/1/1996
5/1/1997
3/1/1998
1/1/1999
11/1/1999
9/1/2000
7/1/2001
5/1/2002
3/1/2003
1/1/2004
11/1/2004
9/1/2005
7/1/2006
5/1/2007
3/1/2008
1/1/2009
11/1/2009
9/1/2010
7/1/2011
5/1/2012
3/1/2013
1/1/2014
11/1/2014
Consumer Confidence, Total versus $35-50k Wage Earners,
Indexed to 1/1989
$35-50k Wage Earners Consumer Confidence Total

6. The lowerincome groupshave seenmodestimprovementinconfidence since energypricesdeclined. Measuredin
termsof theirconfidence,thesegroupsof people have recoveredfromthe depthsof the 2008 recessionbutonly
modestlyasmeasuredrelative tothe depthsof the 2001-2004 periodandtheyare significantlyunderperforming
relative toconfidenceoverall. Infact,the gap betweenthe confidence levelof the populationoverallandthese
groupshave neverbeengreater:
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1/1/1989
11/1/1989
9/1/1990
7/1/1991
5/1/1992
3/1/1993
1/1/1994
11/1/1994
9/1/1995
7/1/1996
5/1/1997
3/1/1998
1/1/1999
11/1/1999
9/1/2000
7/1/2001
5/1/2002
3/1/2003
1/1/2004
11/1/2004
9/1/2005
7/1/2006
5/1/2007
3/1/2008
1/1/2009
11/1/2009
9/1/2010
7/1/2011
5/1/2012
3/1/2013
1/1/2014
11/1/2014
Consumer Confidence, Total versus $25-35k Wage Earners,
Indexed to 1/1989
$25-35k Wage Earners Consumer Confidence Total

7. 0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1/1/1989
11/1/1989
9/1/1990
7/1/1991
5/1/1992
3/1/1993
1/1/1994
11/1/1994
9/1/1995
7/1/1996
5/1/1997
3/1/1998
1/1/1999
11/1/1999
9/1/2000
7/1/2001
5/1/2002
3/1/2003
1/1/2004
11/1/2004
9/1/2005
7/1/2006
5/1/2007
3/1/2008
1/1/2009
11/1/2009
9/1/2010
7/1/2011
5/1/2012
3/1/2013
1/1/2014
11/1/2014
Consumer Confidence, Total versus $15-25k Wage Earners,
Indexed to 1/1989
$15-25k Wage Earners Consumer Confidence Total
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1/1/1989
11/1/1989
9/1/1990
7/1/1991
5/1/1992
3/1/1993
1/1/1994
11/1/1994
9/1/1995
7/1/1996
5/1/1997
3/1/1998
1/1/1999
11/1/1999
9/1/2000
7/1/2001
5/1/2002
3/1/2003
1/1/2004
11/1/2004
9/1/2005
7/1/2006
5/1/2007
3/1/2008
1/1/2009
11/1/2009
9/1/2010
7/1/2011
5/1/2012
3/1/2013
1/1/2014
11/1/2014
Consumer Confidence, Total versus <$15k Wage Earners,
Indexed to 1/1989
<$15k Wage Earners Consumer Confidence Total