Master's students use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) forthcoming book (Origins of New Industries) to analyze the technical and economic feasibility of 3D Holography. Improvements in lasers and holographic media are gradually making this more feasible. See my other slides for details on concepts, methodology, and other new industries..

1. HOLOGRAPHY
Chew Guang Wei HT093271W
Ho Seow Yan HT093116E
Lim Su Ru HT093278B
Ong Lip Sin HT093131U
Wee Chong Liang Justin HT093290B
MT5009

2. Content
2
• Introduction
• Evolution of Displays
• Value Proposition
• Holographic System Setup
• Technology & Cost of Holographic System
• Limitations of Holographic System
• Components of Holographic System
• F t
Future Opportunities
O t iti
• Entrepreneurial Opportunities

3. Holography
g p y
3

4. Timeline of Holography
g p y
4
1960:Pulsed ruby laser
y
was developed
1962:White light reflection
hologram
2010: Development of
moving 3D holograms
2009: Interactive holographic
g p
displays developed
1983:Mastercard first credit
g
card to use holograms
1947: Dennis Gabor developed the
theory of holography

5. Evolution of Displays
p y
5
1940 1964 1972 1980 1997 2004 2010
Plasma Display 3D movies LCD enters
invented enter market market
Next generation: 3D
Holographic Display
Cathode Ray Liquid Crystal Plasma enters 3D TV enters
Tube (CRT) Display (LCD) market market
enters market invented
Type Advantages Disadvantages
High Definition High resolution 2D images
com/
3D Display High resolution Narrow viewing angles
dmarkettrends.c
Stereoscopic Require viewing glasses
Not true 3D imagery
3D Holographic “Life-like” images
Life like Require large amount of
http://www.3d
Display Volumetric 3D display processing
Interactivity Constraint by size of holographic
material

6. Value Proposition
p
6
1.
. High Definition:
g e o :
Images projected are full coloured, high resolution
and life-like
2. Ease of customization:
E f t i ti
Ability to project hologram anywhere
3.
3 Ease of delivery and transmission:
Real time transmission to multiple locations
4.
4 Volumetric View:
360 degree view with different perspectives
5. Interactivity:
Ability to interact directly with image

7. Holographic System Setup
g p y p
7
Satellite
Object 3D
Hologram
Light
Transmission Source
Medium
Holographic
Camera Media
System
Computer System Computer System

8. Technology for Holographic System
gy g p y
8
Keyy Prototype
yp Technology expected by
gy p y
Sub-System 2016
Light Source 200mW 500mW
Diode-Pumped
Diode Pumped Solid Diode-Pumped
Diode Pumped Solid
State (DPSS) Pulsed Laser State (DPSS) Pulsed Laser
Holographic 17” At least 42”
Media Photorefractive Polymer Advanced Photorefractive Polymer
2-second refresh rate 6 to 24 fps refresh rate
Transmission 100Mbps Up to 40Gbps
Media Fiber Optics
Computer System 4-core 16-core and beyond

9. Projected Cost of Holographic System
j g p y
9
42" Holographic System
S stem
200,000 Estimated Cost Breakdown
Computer
System
150,000 Holographic
Media
$)
Cost ($
Light Source
Light Source
100,000
Transmission
50,000
0
2011 2016 2021 2030
Year

10. Limitations of Holographic System
g p y
10
 Laser System
 Performance trade off with cost and safety
 Microprocessor
 Large amount of processing required
g p g q
 Multiple complex algorithms and calculations
 Photorefractive Polymer
 Size of hologram dependent on size of material
 Refresh rate

11. Photorefractive
Polymer
11
Fiber Optics

12. Light Source: Evolution
g
12
Mercury Solid-state Semiconductor
arc lamp laser
l laser di d
l diodes
(1948) (1960s) (1980s)
Dr. Theodore [1]
Maiman
studies a ruby
crystal in the
shape of a
cube in a laser.
[1] http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/269607/holography/92904/Pulsed-laser-holography

13. Laser System: Performance
y
13
1) The lower the laser power the longer the exposure time
power,
 A second to few minutes for CW lasers vs. “nanoseconds” for Pulsed lasers
2) Laser power requirement
i) Increases with Size of holograms
 Typical
T i l power l l H N l
levels: HeNe lasers: 1 20 W Di d lasers: 5-50mW,
1-20mW, Diode l 5 50 W
DPSS lasers: 20-200mW, Ar lasers with etalon: 100-500mW
 For large holograms, on the order of 10-sq m, laser powers on the order
of 1 W i preferred if cost i not an issue [1]  solid-state or A i gas
f 1-W is f d t is t i lid t t Ar ion
lasers as candidates
ii) Increases with Distance of hologram set-up
 Min. power output for laser light shows: ~400mW
[1] http://www.loreti.it/chaptersPDF/Ch11_Non-Laser_Illum.pdf
[3] h // i ll i /P d /D /CVIMG H l h Whi df

14. Laser System: Performance vs. Cost
y
14
3) Higher laser power systems translate to higher costs
(several thousand to tens of thousand dollars) [1]
Laser System Costing
35000 CW
Pulsed
30000
25000
20000
Cost ($)
15000
10000
5000
0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Power (mW) * Modulator & optic system costs not included [1]
[1] Diode pumped SSL Costs: http://www.amazing1.com, 2011

15. Laser System: Cost Projection
y j
15
Projected Laser Cost Trend
j
 Generally 80,000.00
decreasing trend 70,000.00
200 mW
500 mW
for the past five 1000 mW
W
60,000.00
years (~15%) 1500 mW
50,000.00
 Laser prices
Cost ($)
projected to 40,000.00
continue 30,000.00
dropping in
pp g 20,000.00
20 000 00
similar fashion
10,000.00
in the next 5
years 0.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Source: OptoIQ, 2008

16. Holographic Media
g p
16
Comparison in Key Performance Metrics in Holographic Recording
Materials [1,2]
M t i l [1 2]
120% 30,000
 Recording medium
100% 25,000 should have
High diffraction
Diffraction Efficiency (%)
)
1)
Resolution Limi (um)
80% 20,000
efficiency
60% 15,000 2) Wide resolution
range
g
it
40% 10,000
Max. Resolution limit [um]
Max. Resolution limit [mm−1]
20% 5,000 Min. Resolution limit [um]
Min. Resolution limit [mm−1]
Max. efficiency Effi i
Max. Diff
M Diffraction Efficiency
i
0% 0
Dichromated gelatin
Photopolymers
Elastomers
Photographic emulsions
Photographic emulsions
Photothermoplastics
Photochromics
otorefractives
Photoresists
(Phase bleached)
mplitude)
P
Pho
e,
P
(Am
[1] Lecture Holography and optical phase conjugation held at ETH Zürich by Prof. G. Montemezzani in 2002
[2] Ablation of nanoparticles for holographic recordings in elastomers: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/la102693m

17. Holographic Media
g p
17
1) Silver Halide Emulsion
 High exposure sensitivity over a wide range of spectral regions
 High resolving power
 Suitable for transmission/reflection holograms (amplitude and phase type)
/ g ( p p yp )
2)
5) Dichromated Gelatin Material
Photorefractive polymer [1]

 Record multicolour reflection holograms the 3D telepresence
Used for 3D dynamic holograms, enables

 Suitable f veryi highl efficiency and low noise holograms
No d for
N need for special glasses
l
3) Photorefractive Crystals seconds; quasi real-time
Refreshes images every 2
 Good for large-area and holography
Material use for real-time dynamically updatable holographic recording media
 Recyclable! Photothermoplastics can also b recycled several h d d times and are
l bl h h l l be l d l hundred d
most suitable for holographic interferometry
4) Photoresist Material
 Suitable for producing surface relief holograms
 Most sensitive to ultraviolet/blue light only.
[1] P.-A. Blanche et al, Holographic three-dimensional telepresence using large-area photorefractive polymer, Nature Volume:
468, Pages: 80–83, 04 November 2010, DOI 10.1038/nature09521

18. Photorefractive Polymer: Performance
y
18
1) Refresh Rate
 University of Arizona (UA) took 2 s to write & erase a full-colour dynamic holographic
image in 2010 vs. 4 mins in 2008 [1,2]
 marked improvement of ~100x in 2 years!
 Quoting UA lead author of the study Blanche,
“In two years we improved the speed by a factor of 100. If we can improve the speed by
the same factor, we will be over video rate. It will be done.” [2]
 Next step: 6 fps (~0.2s); to progress towards a refresh rate of 24-30 fps
2)
) Display Size
p y
 17” (current largest)
 Have to scale up the display size to 85” for outdoor billboard advertising & 6–8 ft
(
(life-size) for telepresencing to be truly p
) p g y possible
[1] http://news.inventhelp.com/Articles/Electronics/Inventions/three-dimensional-dynamic-holography-12521.aspx
[2] http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/11/holographic-video/

19. Photorefractive Polymer: Cost Projection
y j
19
Sony's Display Cost based o j eDisplay C o s& o f P h o t o rSony's t i v e P o l y mper Inch based on
P r on c t e d Size t e f r a c Display Cost e r
[1-3] [1-3]
Technology (as of Dec 2010) b a s e d o n S260r e e n S iTechnology (as of Dec 2010)
c Display z e
5000 D y n a m ic p h o t o r e f r a c t i v e p o l y m e r ( P r o je c t e d )
XEL-1 OLED TV 0 0
350 D y n a m ic p h o t o p o l y m e r ( E x t r a p o 240 f r o m Z e b r a I m a g in g )
la te
XEL-1 OLED TV
Bravia XBR10 Series LED 3D TV S t a t ic p h o t o p o ly m e r ( Z e b r a I m a g i n g ) Bravia XBR10 Series LED 3D TV
4500 Bravia XBR9 Series LCD TV 220 Bravia XBR9 Series LCD TV
30000
200
4000
nch)
25000 180
Cost/inch ($/in
3500 160
Cost ($)
20000
Cost ($)
140
3000
120
15000
2500 100
10000 80
2000
60
1500 5000
40
10 20 030 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Display Size (inches) Display Size (inches)
S c r e e n S iz e ( in c h e s )
 Photorefractive polymer is projected to cost ~4x more than
4x
static photopolymer
 $1500 for 12”x18” & $3500 & 2 ft by 3 ft static 3D holograms by Zebra
Imaging [4]
I i
[1] Sony XEL-1 OLED TV pricing: http://reviews.cnet.com/oled/sony-xel-1-oled/4505-13948_7-32815284.html
[2] Sony Bravia XBR10 Series LED 3D TV pricing: http://www.best-led-tv.net/46%E2%80%B3-sony-bravia-xbr10.html
[3] Sony Bravia XBR9 Series LCD TV pricing: http://www.practical-home-theater-guide.com/sony-lcd-tv-1.html
[4] Zebra Imaging Print Cost: http://www.3d-display-info.com/zebra-imaging-prints-large-3d-holograms

20. Transmission Media
20
Transmission rate projected to increase by
about tenfold over a decade
 Has the potential to go up to 40 or even 160
Gbps
 Current transmission capacity of fibre
 Capable of supporting a very large is in the region of ~ 2.5 to10 Gbps
size hologram (~500”)
 Capable of supporting a
http://www.telebyteusa.com/foprimer/foch1.htm prototype hologram (17”)
http://www.rp-photonics.com/optical_fiber_communications.html
http://www.belden.com/pdfs/Techpprs/10_Gbps_LAN_Segment_WP.pdf

21. Transmission Media: Cost Projection
21
Relative cost trends comparing 10
Gbps vs 4Gbps
vs.
 Transmission cost projected to drop by ~75% in a decade
 By 2016, 10Gbps is expected to cost ~$225
$225
www.corning.com/docs/opticalfiber/CM00000004.pdf

22. Microprocessor
p
 Currently, a processor is capable of supporting up to 42” hologram
42
 Estimated that 23 processors (16-core) in 2016 will be able to support a large
billboard size hologram
Intel’s E7 Xeon
10-core

23. Microprocessor: Cost Projection
p j
23
Average transistor price expected
to be 10-10 i 2016
b 10 in
 Estimated cost trend for microprocessor
 Currently, 6-core processor with 109 transistors costs ~$300
 In 2016, 16-core processor with ~ 5*1010 transistors is expected to cost ~$300
http://www.singularity.com/charts/page62.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count

24. FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES

25. Future Opportunities
pp
25
 Advertising
 Gaming
 Education
 Training Richard Branson Hologram – Virgin Digital Launch
 Communication
 Medical
 Forensic Science

26. Entrepreneurial Opportunities
p pp
26
 Lasers or alternative light sources
 Optics
(e.g. diffusers, filters, diffraction gratings)
 Software developer p
(e.g. algorithms)
 Photorefractive materials
 Silicon photonics

27. Conclusion
27
 With a trend of moving towards 3D and virtual
reality, Holographic System will dominate the
display, advertising and entertainment industries
p y, g
 This is largely attributed to:
 Lowering of cost of key components
 Advancement in holographic technology
 Advancement in technologies of key components

28. THANK YOU
(Q&A)