(Best) ENJOY Call Girls in Faridabad Ex | 8377087607
Â
Nandan exim research report
1. 1
Nandan Exim Limited (Nandan) is one of the largest denim manufacturers in
India, with a capacity of approximately 70.0 mn metres per annum (p.a.). The
company has clocked a strong sales growth of 21.2% CAGR over FY2007-13.
We expect this CAGR to increase even further, to 24.9% over FY2013-15, on the
back of higher capacity and strong domestic and export orders. At current levels,
the stock is trading at 0.6x its FY2014E and 0.5x its FY2015E Book Values. We
recommend a Buy on the stock with a Target Price of Rs 55, valuing the business
at 1.0x its FY2015E BV.
Industry poised for tremendous opportunities at a global level: The denim
industry in India is well poised to exploit the opportunities offered by the global
developments. China has witnessed a cut in the national capacity from around 3
bn metres to 2.5 bn metres last year, due to a number of headwinds, marking
the beginning of a big opportunity for Indian players. Nandan Exim stands to be
foremost at reaping this opportunity, having a long experience in the denim
exports market, backed by a focused and dedicated management. The company
has a number of global brands, like Ralph Lauren, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger
and GAP amongst its clients, indicating the high global standards that it meets.
High capacity expansion to back growth: The company has planned out a capital
expenditure of Rs 260 cr, which is 50% of the entire gross block at the end of
FY2013. Post this expansion, the denim manufacturing capacity would increase
to 111.0 mn metres p.a., a CAGR of 25.9% over FY2013-15. The increase in the
capacity is targeted at reaping the benefits of the unique opportunity.
Extension of state and central funding schemes to reduce finance cost: The
company will get the benefits of the Technology Upgradation Funds Scheme and
the Gujarat Textile Policy of 2012. The total interest subsidy that the company
would earn would be 12% for spinning machinery and 10% for the other
machinery.
Outlook and valuation: We are very positive on the outlook of Nandan Exim Ltd,
primarily owing to the strong sales growth that is expected due to opportunities in
the global denim industry and its own capacity expansion. Coupled with the
assistance of various government schemes, strong demand in domestic and
global markets augur well for Nandan.
Key financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
Net sales 574 703 897 1,097
% chg 13.1 22.5 27.6 22.3
Net profit 19 31 38 50
% chg 8.3 65.2 23.4 30.5
EPS (Rs) 4.1 6.8 8.4 11.0
EBITDA margin (%) 14.7 15.2 15.0 15.0
P/E (x) 6.7 4.1 3.3 2.5
P/BV (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
RoE (%) 11.8 16.8 17.8 19.7
Source: Company Reports, Research
BUY
CMP Rs 28.95
Target Price Rs 55.00
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Nifty
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 58.0
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 0.0
FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.2
Indian Public / Others 37.8
Face Value (Rs)
BSE Sensex
Textiles
Traded Value (Rs lacs)
Market Cap (Rs cr)
52 Week High / Low
10
19,177
5,808
131
33/20
18
Analyst: Krunal Dayma
Tel: +91-9687589993
krunal@firststepcapital.com
Nandan Exim
Capitalising on growth
November 30,
June 14, 2013
2. June 14, 2013 2
Investment Arguments
Industry poised for tremendous opportunities at a global level
The denim industry in India is well poised to exploit the opportunities offered by the
global developments. Historically, even though India has been one of the largest
manufacturers of denim, the industry has been dominated by the Chinese players.
The denim manufacturing capacity in China is around 3-4 times that of India.
However, recently, the Chinese denim industry has been facing a number of
headwinds. First, the input costs, China’s long term advantage over the rest of the
world, have risen significantly in the country. Coupled with an impending rise in
the value of the renminbi, this is a huge negative for the denim exporters.
Moreover, the Chinese policy suggests that they now intend to move into higher
value-add areas from the traditional low-skill, low-value areas like denim
manufacturing. Accordingly, China has witnessed a cut in the national denim
capacity from around 3.0 bn metres to 2.5bn metres last year. The
aforementioned factors seem to suggest that this might be an indicator of the
general trend, rather than an aberration.
Last year, the US also reduced its production capacity. In fact, that has been the
general tendency observed in that country for quite some time now. All these
developments augur well for the Indian denim manufacturers, who are gearing up
to make the most of the situation. However, India is not expected to be the sole
beneficiary of the cut in denim production capacities in China and US. The
production from these countries would be shifted to a number of countries like
Pakistan, Bangladesh and some of the South East Asian nations. However, even a
small slice of this capacity would constitute a big opportunity for Indian players.
India has added roughly 100 mn metres of capacity in the same time period
during which China and US reduced their capacities. A depreciated rupee will also
favour the Indian denim players. The Indian manufacturers’ order books are
reported to have risen by around 10-15% in the past one year, as per the industry
estimates.
For its part, Nandan Exim stands to be foremost at reaping this opportunity,
having a long experience in the denim exports market, backed by a focused and
dedicated management. The company receives around 10% of its revenues from
exports. However, on the back of favourable global scenario, the company aims to
increase its export revenues from 10% to more than 20% by FY2015. The
company’s ambitious plans are backed by its solid track record and marquee
client list. The clients of the company include some global leaders like Ralph
Lauren, Tommy Hilfiger, Calvin Klein, GAP, Armani Exchange and Walmart,
indicating the high standards that the company’s products meet.
High capacity expansion to back growth
Nandan Exim has grown at a rapid pace in the past, backed by a visionary and
aggressive management, which has responded proactively to increasing
opportunities in the denim industry, both, in India and globally, by rapid capacity
expansion. The denim manufacturing capacity has been raised from 30.4 mn
metres per annum (p.a.) to 70.0 mn metres p.a. over the period FY2006-13. This
is a significant increase in capacity, especially considering that during the time,
3. June 14, 2013 3
there was the global economic crisis of an unprecedented dimension. The entire
capacity of the company is fully automated, with minimal human intervention.
Going ahead, the management plans to add capacity even more aggressively.
The company has planned out a capital expenditure of Rs 260 cr, which is 50% of
the entire gross block at the end of FY13. Post this expansion, the denim
manufacturing capacity would increase to 111.0 mn metres p.a., a CAGR of
25.9% over FY2013-15. This new capacity is expected to be commissioned in
FY14.
Exhibit 1: Denim capacity set to increase sharply
Source: Company Reports, Research
The increased capacity will make the company one of the biggest not only in India,
but also the world. As an indicator, Arvind Ltd, India’s largest manufacturer of
denim, had a capacity of 110.0 mn metres p.a. at the end of FY2012. The
increase in the capacity is targeted at reaping the benefits of the unique
opportunity that presents itself to Indian denim manufacturers, with the reduction in
Chinese capacity and hopes of the financial crisis abating. The company already
has a sizable presence in exports to Latin American, Middle East, Asia and African
countries and expects the revenues from exports to increase to 20% from 10%
currently, despite a healthy growth in the domestic market. The company will be
able to capitalize on its strengths in the industry to gain from this scenario. The
company has an advantage over most of its peers in terms of cost, which will make
it well poised to utilize its expanded capacity effectively. Besides, the company’s
marketing channels are in place, so as to support the growth that the company
aims to achieve.
Extension of state and central funding schemes to reduce
finance cost
The capacity expansion that the company has planned would be funded by
internal accruals and debt. As for debt, the company will get the benefits of the
Technology Upgradation Funds Scheme that was extended in June 2012 after a
brief period of suspense over whether it would be persisted with anymore. The
company will get an interest reimbursement of 5% on any debt taken for its new
capacity expansion under this scheme. Moreover, the company would also benefit
from the Gujarat Textile Policy of 2012, which is similar to the central TUF scheme
30
36
42 42 42
50 51
70
100 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
(mnmetresp.a.)
Denim Capacity
4. June 14, 2013 4
in its impact on the company. The company would get an additional 5% interest
subvention under this state policy. In case of spinning machinery, the interest
subvention would be 7% under this scheme. As such, the total interest subsidy that
the company would earn would be 12% for spinning machinery and 10% for the
other machinery. The interest rate charged by the banks for these loans is ~ 13%.
Consequently, the cost of debt to the company would turn out to be only 1% for
spinning machines and 3% for the remaining ones, making its capacity expansion
a very cheap one. We expect the interest rate to fall from 9.2% in FY2013 to 8.0%
in FY2015, despite the fact that financial leverage is expected to increase in this
period. The interest rate has already fallen from 10.2% in FY2012 to 9.2% in
FY2013. Besides these interest cost based advantages, these schemes also provide
for other benefits. The Gujarat state policy provides for a power tariff subsidy of Rs
1 per unit for a period of 5 years on new capacity of cotton spinning and cotton
weaving units. Moreover, it also provides for a VAT refund on purchases of raw
materials and intermediate goods for a period of 8 years. These added benefits
also add to the attractiveness of the company’s expansion plans.
Exhibit 2: Cost of debt to go down on government subsidy schemes
Source: Company Reports,
Credit-worthiness to hold in good stead
The company also enjoys a good credit-worthiness. The company’s gearing ratio is
around 1.8x, which is well within the industry’s accepted standards of 2.0x.
Recently, the ratings agency, Fitch Ratings, assigned the company a long-term
rating of BBB-(ind) with a stable outlook. Going ahead, with the large capital
expenditure planned, the total gearing ratio is bound to increase. However, we
believe that this ratio would not reach unmanageable proportions and will, in fact,
return to 1.8x in FY2015, after the operations from the expanded capacity
stabilize.
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Rscr
Interest(LHS) Interestcost (RHS)
5. June 14, 2013 5
Exhibit 3: Financial leverage to remain in manageable proportions
Source: Company Reports,
Financials
Top-line to increase on the back of expanded capacity
We believe that Nandan’s sales would increase from Rs 703 cr in FY2013 to Rs
1,097 cr in FY2015, a strong CAGR of 24.9%. This increase would come mainly
on the back of the higher capacity and the opportunities thrown up by the global
denim industry developments. The capacity would increase from nearly 70.0 mn
metres p.a. to 111.0 mn metres p.a. over FY2013-15, a CAGR of 25.9%.
Volumes, however, would grow at a CAGR of 19.5% over the same period, as
there will be some time required to absorb the output from the new capacity. We
have estimated the realizations to grow at a CAGR of 6.0% over FY2013-15, much
lower than the 11.2% increase experienced over the last 5 years.
Exhibit 4: Volumes to increase on the back of enhanced capacity
Source: Company Reports, Research
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
Rscr
Debt(LHS) DebtEquity Ratio (RHS)
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
Mnmetresp.a.
Capacity Volumes
6. June 14, 2013 6
Operating Margins to be maintained at the current levels
Operating margins in this business are subject to cotton price movements. A
sudden change in cotton prices may have an unfavourable impact on operating
margins. However, the company has historically been able to pass on all or most
of the increases in cotton prices, as indicated by the strong 11.2% CAGR in denim
realizations over FY2008-12. We expect that in the future as well, the company will
be able to defend its gross margins. The management expects employee costs to
increase at around 10-12% every year, owing to the high employee churn rate in
this industry. Overall, we have estimated that the company would be able to
maintain its operating margins slightly below the FY2013 levels of 15.2%, at
around 15.0%. The EBITDA would increase from Rs 106.9 cr to Rs 164.8 cr over
the same time period, owing to the increase in sales.
Exhibit 5: OPM expected to remain stable
Source: Company Reports, Research
Gross Block to increase owing to capacity addition
The company has planned a capital expenditure of Rs 260 cr, required to increase
the denim capacity from 51.1 mn metres p.a. at the end of FY2012 to 111.0 mn
metres p.a. by FY2015. The capacity has already been increased to nearly 70.0
mn metres p.a. by the end of FY2013. We have assumed the capacity addition to
be completed in FY2014. The gross block is expected to increase to Rs 735 cr in
FY2015, compared to Rs 515 cr in FY2013, a total increase of 42.7%.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
%
Rscr
EBITDA (LHS) OPM(RHS)
7. June 14, 2013 7
Exhibit 6: Gross Block expected to increase by 64%
Source: Company Reports, Research
PAT to grow at a high pace of 26.9% CAGR
Over FY2013-15, the PAT growth is estimated to be 26.9% CAGR, higher than the
sales growth of 24.9%. The main reason is that the company’s interest costs are
not expected to rise at the same rate as the PAT, primarily because of the interest
subsidy schemes of the central and the Gujarat governments. The overall interest
rate is expected to fall from 9.2% in FY2013 to 8.0% in FY2015, leading to a mere
10.2% CAGR in interest payments, over the duration in which sales are expected to
rise at a CAGR of 24.9%. Notably, this increase comes despite an assumption of
higher tax rate. We have estimated a tax rate of 20% in FY2014 and FY2015,
compared to an effective tax rate of 13.2% in FY2013.
Return ratios to firm up significantly
Nandan has witnessed a fluctuation in the return ratios in the last 8 years, an
indication of the turbulent times we have witnessed in the global economy.
However, going ahead, with the rapid increase in sales and PAT, we expect the
return ratios to firm up from the 16.8% (RoE) in FY2013 to 19.7% in FY2015. We
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
Rscr
Exhibit 7: PAT growth expected to be 27% CAGR
Source: Company Reports, Research; Note: PAT Margin excludes XO items
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
%
Rscr
PAT(LHS) PATMargin (RHS)
8. June 14, 2013 8
expect this increase to be gradual, as the company’s new capacity gets
commissioned and gets absorbed over time.
Exhibit 8: RoE expected to increase to 19.7% by FY2015
Source: Company Reports, Research
(2.0) 3.0 8.0 13.0 18.0 23.0
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
%
9. June 14, 2013 9
Outlook and valuation
We are very positive on the outlook of Nandan Exim Ltd, primarily owing to the
strong sales growth that is expected due to opportunities in the global denim
industry. Historically, China has dominated this industry. However, with Chinese
policy directed towards presence in higher value-added areas, the time is ripe for
players like Nandan to make a mark globally. The company’s exports still do not
fully tap major destinations like US and Europe. So, there is a tremendous
potential to grow in the international markets. Besides, the Indian domestic market
also has been performing very well, posting a growth of nearly 10% in orders. This
big opportunity, coupled with the assistance of various government schemes
augurs well for Nandan. The capacity expansion to 111.0 mn metres p.a. is
expected to provide the requisite trigger for future growth.
Overall we expect the company’s sales to grow at a CAGR of 24.9% over FY2013-
15, while PAT is expected to grow at a CAGR of 26.9% over the same period,
despite our estimation of a higher tax rate of 20% in FY2014 and FY2015,
compared to an effective tax rate of 13.2% in FY2013. The relatively higher
Bottom-line growth is expected primarily due to the decrease in the interest costs,
based on the interest subvention schemes of the central and state governments.
On the bourses, the stock has historically traded in the range of 0.6x to 1.9x its
one year forward Book Value and a band of 5x to 11x one-year forward EPS. We
believe that since this is a capital intensive business, P/BV is a more appropriate
method of valuing the stock. The stock is currently trading at 0.6x its FY2015E
Book Value and 2.5x its FY2015E EPS. We have assigned a Target Multiple of 1.0x
to its one-year forward Book Value, which is slightly less than the long term
average valuation of 1.1x its one-year forward BV. We recommend a Buy on the
stock with a target price of Rs 55.
Exhibit 9: One year forward P/BV
Source: BSE, Company Reports, Research
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12
Rs
0.5x
0.8x
1.1x
1.7x
1.4x
10. June 14, 2013 10
About denim Industry
India is one of the largest players in the global denim industry. However, the size
of Indian denim manufacturing capacity dwarfs in comparison with China. The
denim industry in India has 8-10 major players, with a total capacity of around
800 mn metres p.a. In comparison, China has a capacity of 2.5 bn metres p.a.
Other major manufacturers of denim, Pakistan and Turkey have a capacity of 500
mn metres p.a. The Indian industry is almost completely organized in nature, with
little or no presence of unorganized players. The combined capacity is expected to
increase to 1,000 mn metres p.a. in the year 2013. The largest player in the
denim industry in India is Arvind Ltd, with a capacity of nearly 110 mn metres p.a.
The driver of growth for the industry is both, export orders as well as domestic
markets. While the domestic market has been growing at a rate of 10% yoy,
exports are clocking a growth of 10-15%, backed by the vacating of space by the
Chinese players. The domestic market in India is still severely underpenetrated,
with per capita consumption of jeans at 0.3 p.a., compared to nearly 2.0 p.a. for
the US. This under-penetration provides a big opportunity to the denim
manufacturers in the domestic market as well.
About the company
Nandan Exim Limited, established in 1994, has gained prominence among
the Denim Fabrics Manufacturers in India. Nandan Exim Ltd is one of the
largest manufacturers of Denim in the country, with a capacity of about 70.0
mn metres p.a. at the end of FY2013. Based in Ahmedabad, the company has
been engaged in the supply of various textile products, especially denim to
several parts of the world. The business is extended to several countries like
Europe, USA, Morocco, Egypt, Syria, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Latin
America.
The company belongs to the diversified Chiripal group, which has presence in
the fields of Petrochemicals, Spinning, Weaving, Knitting, Fabric Processing,
Chemicals, Infrastructure, Packaging and Educational Initiatives, offering
employment to more than 20,000 people directly or indirectly. Having started
with a few power looms, the group has evolved into multi-activity, multi-
product Textile House that produces fiber to apparel under one roof. The
Chiripal group has various divisions like Wovens Processing, Knits, Polar
Fleece, Flocking, Embroidery and Chemicals with which it is able to cater to
the needs of varied customer groups.
In addition, the group has also integrated facilities to manufacture Partially
Oriented Yarn (POY) and Fully Drawn Yarn, thus ensuring regular supply of
raw materials required for manufacturing various fabrics. The group has
further diversified by setting new projects for manufacturing Bottom Weights,
Denims, Home Furnishings and Cotton Knitted Fabrics. Besides being a major
player in textiles, the group has also developed an Integrated Textile Park near
Ahmedabad. It is a well developed industrial park for small and medium
Enterprises that works on plug n play concept with ready availability of all
facilities required for successful functioning of textile business.
Nandan counts as its customers, players like Calvin Klein, Ralph Lauren,
Tommy Hilfiger, Armani Exchange and GAP, signifying its status as one of the
top players in the global denim manufacturing industry.
14. June 14, 2013 14
Disclaimer
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must
not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each
recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem
necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the
securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits
and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the
merits and risks of such an investment.
First Step Capital, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment
businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly
available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be
true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not
be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only.
First Step Capital or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any
way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any
inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
First Step Capital has not independently verified all the information contained
within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any
representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or
data contained within this document.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its
contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed
on, directly or indirectly.
Neither, First Step Capital, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be
liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the
use of this information.