Energy Environment Economics

By Dr. Faisal Tajir
When and Where do you
think lies the milestone when
the ever more affordable
alternative energy sources
will be more affordable than
the ever more expensive fossil
fuels.
Wake up to be advised that
such a day was folded into
history while you were
seeking profit elsewhere.
Spending
Energy is
Fun.
Spend it!
Allah does not punish you for a crime you have not
committed.
Stop torturing yourself in the dark.
Stop burning your money.
1

Energysources and economics
By Dr. Faisal Tajir 4

Seminar Objectives
• Appreciate current state of the energy market
in Pakistan.
• Pointing to more cost effective sources of
energy in the market.
• Identify upcoming technologies and
opportunities.
• Discuss various energy sources separately.
• Identifying responsibilities of the consumer.

Prevalent Pattern
• 86.2% from Fossil Fuels that are only to get more
and more expensive
• Electric supply (grid) offering an ever decreasing
uptime
• $6.7billion of foreign exchange being lost in
importing oil – each year
• Strategic dependency on imported fuel and
shipping lanes
• The psychological impact of knowing one is
damaging the environment for his/her children

0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
Consequences
• Decreasing Demand Growth Rate!!!

Reaction

Can Things Really Be This Bad?
Have We Checked Everything?

International
Cost
Cents/kWh
Our Quote
Paisa/kWh
Water
Required?
Water
Offered?
Local Effect Global Effect
Grid
Dependency
PV 10 No No - Heating No
Lens 5 93 Yes Desalination - Heating No
Tower 2 160 No No - Heating Little
Kite 0.4 No No - Heating Yes
Ocean
Current
? - No - Cooling Yes
Ocean
Thermal
11 - Yes Cooling Heating Yes
Geo
Thermal
3 Yes Desalination Heating Cooling Yes
Bio Mass 5 Yes Desalination Heating ? No
Mist 32 Yes No Cooling Heating Little
RBP 138 Yes No Cooling Heating No
Nuclear 5.5 Optional Desalination Heating Heating Yes

850
425
170
34
933
255
425
468
1,900
1,100
600
1,300
93
160
32
138
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Paisa/kWh
Our Best Competitors
Our Quote

Worried about
the Environment?

Global Effect Heat Cool
Warm Areas:
Local effect = cooling
1. Mist
2. RBP
3. OTEC
1. Artificial Rain
2. Brackish Groundwater:
Permanganate Cycle
No local effect
1. Wind
2. Wave
3. Hydro
4. Solar
1. Ocean Current
Cool Areas:
Local effect = heating
1. Artificial Rain
2. Water Cooled Thermal /
Nuclear power stations
3. Exothermic Release of
other greenhouse gases
1. Geothermal
43By Dr. Faisal Tajir

SHOPPING!
It is ALL a matter of

Appreciating your requirement
• 1W=8.766kWh/yr.
• Your electricity bill lets you know how much
money you pay for how many kWhs.
• Your demand fluctuates, you can calculate
your maximum possible demand by summing
the power rating on all appliances.
• Before arranging for your electricity, you want
to eliminate pointless wastages such as loose
connections and magnet attracting wiring.

Typical Diurnal Variation in a Household’s Consumption

In the cooler localities...

Annual Variation

SOLAR OPTIONS

Geographical
Availability

Assembly Types
• Solar Panels
– Electricity generation anywhere under the sun
• Sunlight Intensification
– Detour the cost of the panels, if there is room for
the heliostat
– Most cost effective means of heating
• Hybrid Installations – typically harnessing
wind AND solar energy

Solar 101
• At the smallest level, you would rather buy solar
cells rather than panels. This substantially
reduces cost and gives you options such as
making flexible panels: upon your clothes.
• Instead of crying about there being no sunlight at
night, consider how comfortable life would be if
your mobile phone recharged automatically.
Appreciate limitations, yet search for
applications.

Solar 102
• Solar water heaters are already quite
economically available in Pakistan and elsewhere.
Don’t try to compete with the economies of scale
of mass production – just buy the complete
product!
• If your choice of electricity for your premises is
solar.
– Double and triple check the geographical distribution
of solar energy.
– Hire an engineer for the acrylic Fresnel lens and
heliostat rather than bringing in truck loads of panels.

Liquid water / solution
(at pressure)
Steam / with any dust –
driving any turbine
DC electricity
Steam at pressure
pretty good at
cooking!
If this lens has to
get large, it also
has to be an un-
oriented wind
turbine!

Solar 103
• Larger installations should be hybrid – harnessing
Solar AND Wind/Mist.
• Automate tasks such as filling your rooftop water
tank to happen when the sun is at work.
• The high temperatures that you can achieve at
the focus of the lens mean that you can set up a
cottage industry – for example extracting oxidized
aluminum from soil.
• This is a global revolution. Even if you can’t save
yourself, someone else will!

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Average Sunlight in Karachi: hours per day: source BBC weather

Solar 104
• Let’s assume you consume 2000kWhs (ie
units) of electricity a month, and you install a
2400W solar electricity supply on your roof.
• In Karachi you will save an average of 596
kWhs (units) on your electricity bill.
• Your solar electricity supply cost you
Rs.48,000/- (plus human resource)

Solar 105
• You saved Rs. 7748/ a month in your
electricity bill: 16.14%/month.
• Ask your bank what it would have given you
on Rs. 48,000/-
• Should all consumers reduce their demand by
29.8% ‐ the country will have excess electricity
and no load shedding.
• Excess supply will force prices down

WIND OPTIONS

Geographical
Availability

Recent Improvements
• More wind at higher altitudes, modern wind
turbines are kites rather than towers.
• An Aziz Hussein in Township Lahore developed
turbine blades optimized for all wind speeds.
• A funnel type structure around the turbine can
adjust the wind speed across the blades to give a
consistent generation.
• NEPRA has taken over the “risk factor” of the
wind energy industry.

Wind Speed Control
Ability to increase and decrease the
radius of the funnel kind structure
means ability to increase / decrease
wind speed across the turbine!

From Aziz Hussein
Township Lahore

Kites
• KiteGen has begun selling around 20MW onto
the Italian grid.
• Dozens of other teams elsewhere reaching for
the energy from the sky.
• Electricity has become more affordable.
• Electricity has become relatively more affordable.
• This is the essence of this address: advise all
sleeping beauties of this stud that is yawning in
their vicinity.

The American attempt

Pakistani kites are exclusively being developed as
missile silos and for other military applications
As we have better energy sourcesBy Dr. Faisal Tajir 135

OCEAN CURRENT

Geographical Distribution
• Kites, only heavier, tapping continuous or tidal
currents.
• Even more affordable than wind energy.

OCEAN THERMAL

Interesting Aspects
• Carnot cycle between ocean surface and
ocean bed.
• Cycles secondary product – distilled water,
cooling / air conditioning.
• Most aggressive air conditioning technology
known. Cool largest coastal city, while
generating both electricity AND fresh water.

Temperature Difference between
surface and Ocean bed

GEO THERMAL

Aspects
• Requires water (fresh, dirty, brackish, or sea)
as raw material.
• Carnot cycle between earth’s surface and
underlying hot crust.
• By-product steam/hot water/distilled water.
• Very cost effective and environment friendly
source of energy and fresh water.
• The default climate control tool when you
want to warm up a locality.

Introduction
• Achieve temperature difference by spraying
mist in air.
• Run a Carnot cycle between this temperature
difference.
• Hybridize with wind energy.
• Use directly to cool / pre-cool.

Mist
Low Pressure RegionTurbines Fans
Dynamo
Mist Energy Schematic

Suggested Prototype (for Karachi)
• 5gpm / 150 psi mist / average net 14.475kW
• Carnot efficiency and Karachi average weather
conditions (from BBC weather) used for
calculations.
• Minimum generation 3.89kW at midnight to 0600
hrs in August.
• Maximum generation 30.4kW at 1200 hrs to 1800
hrs in December.
• Cooling: a consistent 712kW, or a 203 ton AC.
• Consumes water: 316g/s.

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
kW
Power Output
0 to 6
6 to 12
12 to 18
18 to 24

Remaining Specifications
• Radius 4.76m. Length 15m.
• Estimated cost, Rs. 300,000/- (~Rs. 20/W or
Rs.0.32/kWh) plus human resource
• Doesn’t get better than this…
• Energy Consuming Air Conditioners (203 ton) cost
way more.
• Compare with our grid’s distribution cost of Rs
0.50/kWh
• Taps Mist AND Wind Energy.

/ WIND HYBRID
MIST / SOLAR

Minimizing storage in a grid free small
enterprise
• Mist Turbine peak production comes with an
approximately π/2 phase lag as compared to
Solar.
• Distributing your investment in Solar/Wind
and Mist/Wind you should need only 6 hours
of storage.

By Dr. Faisal Tajir0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 to 6 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24
kW
Daily Variation
Rs. 300,000 Mist/Wind Turbine
Rs. 300,000 Solar Electric Supply
Sum
161

By Dr. Faisal Tajir0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
kW
Annual Variation
Mist
Solar
Total
162

ARTIFICIAL RAIN

Recent Developments
• A certain industrial process produces reduced
silica: as a waste product, with a grain
structure that leaves it as good as a flare: only
that this burned silicon then flies up to bring
down clouds!
• Rain can be started but not stopped: threat of
floods, use will remain limited to hilly areas
where there is no drainage issue.

Artificial Rain
• Technology not economically advisable in the
absence of over head clouds or in the
presence of strong winds.
• Considered the strongest climate control
technology: drop the clouds every sunset and
you will cool down your locality, drop them
only at dawn and you will heat up your
vicinity. The more cloud cover you have, the
more you control your climate.

Reduced Boiling Point
As a means of tapping evaporation

Concept
• Reduce the pressure above water, it will boil at
a much lower temperature.
• The water vapor introduced by the boiling can
leave the system via a filter: that only allows
monatomic molecules to pass through.

Valve to fill
water and
remove air
Monatomic tensile
membranes to let out
the vapor. Argon in
air (10mbar) leaks in
from here.
The pressure above
this water is greatly
reduced. It boils at a
much reduced
temperature: often
lower than the
ambient
temperature
Instead of utilizing the low
temperature of the water,
we can have the vapor
passing across turbines,
giving mechanical energy.

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Average Vapor Pressure in Karachi (mbar)
0 to 6
6 to 12
12 to 18
18 to 24

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Reduced Boiling Point Karachi Celsius
0 to 6
6 to 12
12 to 18
18 to 24

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ambient Temperature Karachi Celsius
Average
Min
Max

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Maintainable Room Temperature in Karachi by RBP: Celsius

5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
oC
Min
Average
Max
RBP

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ambient Temperature minus RBP: Celsius
0 to 6
6 to 12
12 to 18
18 to 24

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Pressure difference available: if temperature drop is compromised (mbar)
0 to 6
6 to 12
12 to 18
18 to 24

Best Solution (Electricity / Air
Conditioning) for the Apartment.
• For the entire year, can provide electricity to an
apartment that may not harness solar or wind
energy: nor has the space for a Mist Turbine. 18
hrs of storage will however be required.
• Does not eliminate but does reduce air
conditioning requirements: 34C down to 27C.
• Unlike Mist Energy, does not inflict any too low
temperatures in the winters. This superiority
could prove decisive.

AIR CONDITIONING

Air Conditioning as an Energy Source!
• Ambient Temperature changes diurnally.
• Insulation means that our buildings tend to
maintain the average inside them.
• This means that every day we may run a
Carnot cycle between the air in the room and
outside: while improving conditions in the
room!

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
oC
Monthly Average Temperatures for Karachi as per BBC weather
Average
Min
Max

• In the winter, we can run such a cycle in the
day, generating a small amount of electricity,
and heating up our cold dwelling.
• In the summer, we can run such a cycle every
night, generating a small amount of electricity,
and beating the heat in our rooms.

• The amount of energy from such an
installation is going to be small, yet
hybridization with other energy sources
always results in the most cost effective air
conditioning AND lower cost for one’s
electricity.

BREEDER REACTORS

When the Sun is Not Enough
• Enormous growth potential of this family of
technologies needs to be appreciated.
• It maintains a monopoly at submarines.
• We cannot afford to suffice on fission based
detonation.
• We cannot afford to trust the government that
failed in Thar with such a task.
• The private technocrat will have to come forward,
develop: and then deploy the design and
technology.

International
Cost
Cents/kWh
Our Quote
Paisa/kWh
Water
Required?
Water
Offered?
Local Effect Global Effect
Grid
Dependency
PV 10 No No - Heating No
Lens 5 93 Yes Desalination - Heating No
Tower 2 160 No No - Heating Little
Kite 0.4 No No - Heating Yes
Ocean
Current
? - No - Cooling Yes
Ocean
Thermal
11 - Yes Cooling Heating Yes
Geo
Thermal
3 Yes Desalination Heating Cooling Yes
Bio Mass 5 Yes Desalination Heating ? No
Mist 32 Yes No Cooling Heating Little
RBP 138 Yes No Cooling Heating No
Nuclear 5.5 Optional Desalination Heating Heating Yes

850
425
170
34
933
255
425
468
1,900
1,100
600
1,300
93
160
32
138
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Paisa/kWh
Our Best Competitors
Our Quote

Climate
Change and Control

Climate Chronology
• The well established ice ages and interglacials
offer a horrific tale of our planets climate.

Global Warming
• Scientists the world over are advising that it is
already too late to bring down carbon
emissions etc and that the planet is going to
go on warming up for the next 500 years even
if carbon emissions immediately drop to zero.
• Receding glaciers are now accepted as part of
everyday life.

The threat of another Ice Age
• An increasing number of scientists believe that
this planet is not capable of housing the kind
of temperatures that are being extrapolated
and that this excess heat will be released in a
big storm sending the planet into its next Ice
Age.
• This theory is a bit new, and hence requires
some degree of discussion.

The Role of Water
• Global warming will indeed result in more water
(vapor) in the atmosphere.
• H2O is our planets primary greenhouse gas.
• The diffusivity (ability to mix / dissolve) of H2O
falls exponentially with temperature.
• The uneven heat capacity and absorption
spectrum of the atmosphere translates to active
weather.
• Stronger winds will mean more dust eroding and
being blown up into the atmosphere.

The Role of Wind
• More dust in the atmosphere will reduce the
amount of sunlight reaching the surface.
• Recall that this variation (water’s diffusivity vs
temperature) is exponential.
• The dust in the atmosphere suddenly takes
over, the temperature of the atmosphere falls
for a global rain storm to start.
• With the vapor out of the atmosphere before
the dust, an ice age starts.

What we know
• We know that shorter wavelengths are getting
through, as the ozone layer recedes.
• We know that sunlight in general is decreasing
because of more dust in the atmosphere.
• We know that the planet is heating up, yet the
higher the temperature the more unstable it
is.
• The temperature that is stable is what we call
an ice age.

Summary
• Temperature Increase
– Vapor Pressure Increase
• Temperature Increase
– Diffusivity Decrease
• Weather / Wind Activity Increase
• Dust Increase
• Temperature Reduction
• Precipitation
• Vapor Pressure Collapse (Before Dust Decrease)
• Temperature Collapse (Very Stable Climate)

WE TAKE CHARGE OF THE CLIMATE
So what do we do?

Climate Control
• We know very well already that a list of
energy sources will alter the climate in one
way or another.
• By air conditioning our cities and our
plantations, we prepare for any major climatic
disaster as well.

Global Effect Heat Cool
Warm Areas:
Local effect = cooling
1. Mist
2. RBP
3. OTEC
1. Artificial Rain
2. Brackish Groundwater:
Permanganate Cycle
No local effect
1. Wind
2. Wave
3. Hydro
4. Solar
1. Ocean Current
Cool Areas:
Local effect = heating
1. Artificial Rain
2. Water Cooled Thermal /
Nuclear power stations
3. Exothermic Release of
other greenhouse gases
1. Geothermal

Conclusion
• Mist for energy and Permanganate for water
are indispensible. Both of these will cool the
locality.
• Of the alternatives, solar (lens) and artificial
rain are the cost effective and grid free
options.
• Once artificial rain is deployed (in conjunction
with Mist), the only remaining environmental
issue is the ozone layer.

GOVERNMENT

Government Level Recommendations
• Ocean bed water to air condition coastal
cities: fresh water and electricity as by
products.
• Geo Thermal Power Stations in permafrost
areas: melt the glaciers and permafrost.
• Mist and Rain also as climate control tools:
electricity as by product.

Government Level Recommendations
• Hydroelectric dams controlling the floods and
cashing in on the increased rains.
• Kites for military, law enforcement, and
communication.
• Waste to Energy plants.
• Breeder Reactors in cooler areas.
• When and if even more energy is required:
raise more kites.

BUSINESS

To the Investor
• Intensified sunlight is a distinct form of energy,
like heat and electricity, that is often best used
directly. Do NOT miss out on…
• Pakistan can best generate around 1.5-2TW of
Mist/Wind Energy. Solar will determine the price
of electricity in our foreseeable future: 160TW
capacity.
• Do not miss out on the cooling from OTEC and
Mist or the heating from Solar and GeoThermal.

CITIZEN

To the Citizen
• Ambient heat and dirty / saline water are not
things to complain about.
• No one not consuming solar energy is in any
position to complain about load shedding or
the economy.
• China is consuming ~360GW and the USA
~30TW: you are consuming around 20GW:
have to consume >160TW, you have a lot of
work to do: stop checking out the girls!

Know thy Enemy

Know thy Enemy
• Pakistan maintains the ability to sterilize India
while taking sustainable damage. Please advise if
you have problems with this claim.
• Pakistan also maintains the ability to sterilize the
United States, while being sterilized in response.
Please advise if you have problems with this
claim.
• The ease with which a government employee
may be tipped in Pakistan remains the enemies
weapon of choice: ask NADRA about CNIC#
17201-1557832-9.

By Dr. Faisal Tajir
Know thy Enemy
• NADRA and our Police serve their objective of
sabotaging our design and development projects.
Each plays a critical role in neutralizing “the
threat” from a Pakistani scientist.
• PEC / HEC serve to misguide you as to who is
literate and who is not. Ask Dr. Fida Younas
Khattak why Dr. Faisal Tajir walked out of GIKI:
after four years: without any accreditation.
• AEDB / KESC / WAPDA try to convince you that
every possible effort is being made. Ask AEDB
when it was first advised about Mist Energy.
213

By Dr. Faisal Tajir
Short Course on Keeping Pakistan
from its Energy
• Identify
habitual
scientists.
• Steal their
CNICs.
• Tip NADRA
into simply not
listening when
they ask for a
copy.
• Tip the police
into going deaf
when they
complain.
• Tip any
lawyers they
hire.
• Send infantry
in civil clothes
to break up
any
prototypes:
and beat up
whomever
tried to make
them.
• You find
anyone guilty
of prototyping,
focus on his
source of
income and his
habitat.
214

By Dr. Faisal Tajir
Short Course on Energizing
Pakistan
• Go to one of
the Jihad
fronts: learn
how to survive
in the face of
hostility.
• Prefer working
on
technologies
that you know
the developed
world will be
little
interested in.
• The enemy will
isolate you:
use it to give
time to your
mission.
• The enemy will
sabotage your
resources:
make your
project even
more
economical.
• Hold on to
your ego,
nothing else.
• Because…
215

It is only
That needs electricity, energy, or Pakistan

Don’t Worry About Me
I am

Nuclear War
The kind of war Man is yet to fight

Aspects
• Overwhelming firepower.
• Delivery and intercepting delivery vehicle: yet
what if the latter fails?
• Built from money and technology.
• Results into a “cold war”: each adversary
sabotaging the other’s technology and
economy.

Pakistan
• Created by civilians.
• For civilians.
• Defended by civilians.
• Ruled by civilians.
• Run by civilians.
• Full of civilians.
• Civilian grows beard, becomes more of the
enemy’s nightmare than our nukes.

Fighting the Nuclear War
• Grow a beard.
• Tell everyone “your most secret secrets”:
– you know how to make a bomb (only won’t tell ‘cause
it’s classified)
– You are on your way to Amrica: for establishing peace.
• Very strictly obey the law: so that the authorities
don’t get a chance to interview / interrogate you.
• Send nonsense messages across the internet to
whomever in Amrica!

Your Contribution
• You now have half a dozen CIA agents, at the
other end of the planet, closely keeping their
eyes on not a “terrorist”.
• You just added (substantially as well) to the
cost of their war!
• You qualified as a mujahid in the eyes of Allah:
by inflicting such a cost upon the enemy.
Jazakallah Kher!

To the Citizen
• Appreciate how many jobs and business
opportunities are to show up: choose your
stride in time.

Permanent Losses of Pakistan
• Some technologies will deliver sufficient benefit
to the developer even if used by an arch enemy.
• Some technologies will only be made available
when and if anyone pays: first.
• Some technologies will only be shared with
friends.
• Some technologies will NOT be shared.
• NADRA and the Police have cost Pakistan the
permanganate cycle. Someone else will have to
develop it now, and until then: we will look upon
brackish water as a problem!!!

Assessing These Proposals
• If you want the opinion of any HEC / PEC
recognized really cool and learned chap on this
document: do not forget to ask him for his
proposals as well. After all, isn’t he the one who
should have written this document in the first
place?
• Consider the amount of money to be invested in
each plan, and the returns that you are confident
of. Is cooling Karachi’s air with 4oC water really
going to be difficult?

Word of Caution!
• These sciences are evolving at high pace, and
too many suppliers are offering obsolete
technology. Make sure you conduct a survey
thorough enough, yet rest assured that what
you employ will be redundant before it starts
serving you!
• Remember to ask how many kWhs are
expected from the investment per year.

Dr. Faisal Tajir
Coming Seminars on:
• Water: sources and
economics.
• Space: how & why.
• Terra-Farming: Earth,
Venus, and Mars.
• Anti Strategic Delivery
Vehicles.
• FTL SETI.
• Highest IQ Level of all
SAARC and all OIC
• Ph.D. Electronic
Engineering
• Ph.D. Mechanical
Engineering
• In excess of 300
inventions
• CNIC# 17201-1557832-9
• +92-313-2088531
• ftajir@gmail.com

Energy Environment Economics

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