1. Infrastructure and Sustainability:
The next big agenda
By
Peter Newman
Professor of Sustainability
Curtin University

2. Infrastructure Australia
• Infrastructure Australia Act, 2008. April
• Independent advice to Federal Government
and to COAG. Advice...
• Policy, regulation and investment options to
improve infrastructure.
• ‘Will consult widely’.

3. Infrastructure Australia
• Board of 12 from across Australia, with Sir Rod
Eddington Chair.
• IA and the Infrastructure Co‐ordinator
(Michael Deegan, ex NSW DGT) will be based
in Sydney with the Major Cities Unit.
• Part of DITRDLG....

4. Infrastructure Australia
• National Infrastructure Audit – by Dec 2008.
• Infrastructure Priority List – by March 2009.
• National PPP Guidelines – by October 2008.
• Building Australia Fund $20 billion.

5. IA and Sustainability
• ‘review...project appraisal, planning and
approvals processes...’ from DITRDLG Website
on IA.
• ‘to provide advice on infrastructure policy
issues arising from climate change.’ from IA
Act.
• ‘Rigour’ in how priorities are set....

6. Political support....
‘Sustainability and climate change will be
important considerations in any IA work.’
Anthony Albanese, Minister for Infrastructure,
in June at launch of IA.

7. What will this mean in practice?

8. Political support for cities and public
transport....
‘Better public transport is part of the answer
to soaring petrol prices’, Prime Minister Kevin
Rudd says. ‘Hasn't the time come for some
decent public transport systems, invested in
by the national government across our major
cities.’
June 6th, 2008, Channel 9.

9. Even Ralph Swan....
‘There is much much more we need to do for
energy efficiency and public transport...’
And Greg Hunt...
‘...fixing up the public transport blackspots
across Australia...’
Lateline July 16th, 2008

11. Arctic sea ice extent 1978‐2007
in millions of km2
(National Snow and Ice Data Center

12. ETS....
• Will add around 10 c/liter to fuel at $40/T, IEA
predict $38 to $110.
• Government will refund – how will they tell
what is due to ETS and what is due to peak
oil?

13. Peak oil?
‘A growing number of oil‐industry chieftains
are endorsing an idea long deemed fringe:
The world is approaching a practical limit to
the number of barrels of crude oil that can
be pumped every day.’
Russell Gold and Ann Davis
Wall Street Journal, November 19th, 2007

14. Production cycle of an oil field

16. The Hubbert Peak
Sci Amer 1971

18. 18

20. Long term oil prices
Recent Movements
Era of Cheap Oil
20

21. 60
Dema
nd
50
Electric
Power
40 Buildin
gs
Industr
30 y
20
1
0
Gasoline
Diesel
} Natural
Gas
Transport
0
Jet Fuel
Heating Oil
Petrochemicals } Oil
1930 1
955 1
980 2005 2030
F 2.3 H ww u o an n ral g &h wth
ig o e se il d atu as o is
m ch g as th p inp d ctio
ay an e ey eak ro u n

22. ABARE's oil price forecasts have proven to be systematically
low
Actual price
120
100
WTI (US$/barrel)
March 2008
80 prediction
60 March 2007
prediction
40
March 2006
20 prediction
0 March 2005
prediction
30 9/2 1
30 9/2 2
30 9/2 3
30 9/2 4
30 9/2 5
30 9/2 6
30 9/2 7
30 9/2 8
30 9/2 9
9/ 0
11
/ 0 00
/ 0 00
/ 0 00
/ 0 00
/ 0 00
/ 0 00
/ 0 00
/ 0 00
/ 0 00
/ 0 01
March 2004
20
30 9/2
prediction
/0
30
March 2003
Economists' forecasts published Nov 2005
Prof Tony Owen, UNSW, now at Curtin $35/barrel in a couple of years
Nobel Economics winner, Vernon Smith (at UNSW) $15/barrel in the near future 22

23. Containers
tripled in price
since 2000
and will
double again
if $200/bl.

25. Have to reduce 50% by 2050...
• Either by reducing demand due to climate
change governance....
• Or by supply reductions that are going to
happen anyway.

26. Gas
vulnerability

27. Sustainability is the next big economic
opportunity...

28. Treasure
Island
Eco‐City

29. Even the ‘Governator’ is demanding
sustainability...

30. Rizhao Solar City, China

31. Power Production as Urban Design
Vastra Hamnen, Malmö

32. Beddington Zero‐Energy Development, London

33. New 6 star building for Macquarie Bank
by Multiplex

34. CH2 the first 6 star building… Melbourne
City Council,
government leadership at its best...
Carbon neutral, mining the sewer for water recycling,
healthy natural lighting, local materials...

35. 140 William St, the trend setter in
Perth…

36. We can do it with commercial
buildings...
But for settlements we need
infrastructure and planning.

37. What do we need to do to be more
sustainable and resilient in our
settlements?
1. Build transit – with PPP’s, TOD, POD and
GOD...
2. Renewables and electric vehicles
partnership.
3. Eco‐villages on the fringe.
4. Greening the Greyfields.
5. CNG, airships, telepresence...
6. Indigenous roads program.

38. 1. Build transit – with PPP’s, TOD, POD
and GOD

39. US car dependent cities dying from
the outside in...
• Wealthy eco‐enclaves surrounded by Mad
Max suburbs…
• Highly probable.

40. Code Red for outer areas...Sydney
Annual Vehicle Km per Household, 2004
Outer suburbs
residents,
particularly
those away from
rail lines, drive
much more than
inner suburbs
residents.
2.3 – 7.6
7.6 – 10.1
10.1 – 12.6
12.6 – 15.0
15.0 – 18.4
18.4 – 24.5
24.5 – 39.0
40

41. Opening of new Southern Railway
90% approval ratings and already paid off

42. New Southern Rail....av speed 90 kph;
max speed 130 kph.
Revived rail: j to wk 5% to 10% in 10 yrs;

43. Perth journey to work 2001‐2006
• Cars 13% increase
• Public transport 33% (trains 48%)
• Walking 41%
• Biking 21%
• Pop 9%
Sth Rail to
continue the
growth – 50,000
per day...

44. Next phase for Perth?

46. Chatswood in Sydney built new station as
part of a ‘Value Transfer PPP’...

47. Why cant we generate a PPP for light
rail using value transfer...?

48. TOD, POD and GOD...

49. Vancouver
TODs on
Skytrain

50. Portland led the way in America

51. Orinoco Station – first new city in
the suburbs

52. • People living in TODs have 50% less car use
and save 20% of their household income
due to one less car.
• Value retained in down times and good in
up times.
State Center TOD,
PB Placemaking

53. Australian Cities – all want TODs
All strategic plans based on:
• Sustainability and overcoming car
dependence.
• Centres and corridors.
• Transit over highways.
THIS IS THE INNOVATIVE APPROACH TO CITIES

54. Pedestrian Oriented Development

55. Jan Gehl the walkability
magician...working for
City of Perth and CUSP,
Oct 2008

56. Velib Paris
20,000 bikes at 1450 locations,
370 kms cycle lanes.

57. TRAVEL SMART
- Creating a more resilient
transport culture....
• Developed from German Werner Brog,
applied first in Perth, then UK now
US.....
• Individualised marketing based on
direct intervention with householders
receiving educational materials on
alternatives to the car.
• Bikers and bus drivers become eco-
coaches...

58. Green Oriented Development
Kogarah ‐ Green TOD

59. Water Sensitive Urban Design

60. Perth 20 TODs… eg Esplanade
Station

61. New TOD for
central Perth...
Or is it Dubai.

62. Subiaco TOD – ‘Better Cities’ at its best.

68. Plan for Mandurah City Centre

73. Can we do 50% to 80% by 2050?
Yes if we do new transit technology, and new
land use... At the same time.

74. Eg building transit can lead to
exponential declines in car use...
PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER
KILOMETRES PER CAPITA VERSUS
CAR PASSENGER KILOMETRES PER
CAPITA
Lifestyles and city
30,000
form change with
25,000 y = -4576Ln(x) + 40753
it...
2
20,000 R = 0.4973
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
0.0 2000.0 4000.0 6000.0 8000.0
Annual per capita public transport passenger
kilometres per capita

75. What if Perth could triple its transit?
• Transit going from 640 pass kms per person to
2000 (2‐3%/yr) would reduce car use from
13,500 pass kms per person to 6000.
• 7,500 pass kms lost for gain of 1360 pass kms
on transit (5 to 1)....56% less car use!
• How does this happen? Transit Leverage….
Trip chaining, one less car, move house or
job… land use changes.

76. Key to transit leverage is space saved...

79. Transit (and walking) helps you
reclaim urban space…
Freeways 2,500 per lane/hr
Busways 5‐8,000 per lane
LRT 10‐20,000 per lane
Train 50,000 per lane.

82. 2. Renewables and electric vehicles
partnership

83. CETO
Wave
Power

84. PV Solar growing at 40% per year

86. Roof mounted wind systems eg Windpods

87. How do you store renewables?

88. Link renewables into a Smart Grid
and store in electric vehicles – V2G
(Li‐Ion batteries)

89. Renewables competitive now with peak
power;
Two way flow with electric vehicles provides
the breakthrough for a resilient renewably‐
powered grid.
Google campus demonstration
.... and North Port Quay.

91. Carbon‐free development based
on renewables, Smart Grid and
electric vehicles.

92. 4. Eco‐villages colonising the fringe.

93. Ecovillages can be....
• Built with its own water, power, sewerage
infrastructure,
• Be relatively self sufficient in economy and
transport
• Provide the social support in a village context
many are looking for.
Eco‐villages growing rapidly....

94. 5. Greening the Greyfields
‐ in middle suburbs...
• 1950s and 60s suburbs in decline;
• Retrofitting houses for green technology –energy
efficiency and PV‐electric vehicle;
• Land assembly to enable new houses such as
aged and young apartments around transit;
• Green infrastructure such as underground power,
smart grids, water sensitive urban design...
• Better parks and services...

95. Imagine the Possibilities
Transformation of a city…
Photo Series: UrbanAdvantage

96. 6. CNG, airships, telepresence...

97. Telepresence...live HD

98. Airships use 1/10th the fuel...
Good for remote freight and
ecotourism

99. Natural Gas in Vehicles
• Only option for heavy vehicles; CNG buses
have shown how to do it. Australian technology used to
convert Mumbai and Chenai buses.
• Australia has 77% of its population on natural
gas distribution system.
• Can convert biomass to natural gas.
• Leads into Hydrogen economy.

101. Diesel‐free Pilbara?

103. 6. Indigenous roads program
Remote area sustainability needs good roads

105. Can normalisation mean
Indigenous mgt of roads?

106. Bush buses for improved access..?

107. Indigenous infrastructure for
Indigenous work...

108. What do we need?
• Imagination, creativity, innovation...
• Partnerships...