8. Jamaica Climate Change Projections Source: UNDP (2008)

9. IMPACTS OF HURRICANES AND DROUGHTS Office of Disaster Preparedness (disaster week), 1989

11. IMPACTS OF HURRICANES AND DROUGHTS HOW RESILIENT ARE LOCAL FARMING SYSTEMS TO THESE EVENTS? WHAT ARE FARMERS DOING TO COPE WITH THESE EVENTS?

14. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

16. COMMODIFICATION OF GUINEA GRASS Supplier: 30 x 1000 (10sq = 1acre) = $30 000 Cutter: $30 000 Transporters (< 1 miles): $1000 x 3 = $3000 Loaders: $1500 x 3 (at least 3 workers need) = $4500 Laborers: $1000 x 3 = $3000 Grand Total: $75 000 (US$800) Average farm size: 3 acres

17. Hand-wetting

18. Drip irrigation

19. Water harvesting

22. Methodology … Participant Observation

30. (A) Mean monthly rainfall (mm) for Southfield, St. Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica. (B) Frequency of farmers’ perceptions of dry and rainy months (C) Frequency of farmers’ perceptions of the most severe dry month in terms of crop damage

33. MAJOR COMPONENTS SUB-COMPONENTS EXPLANATION OF VARIABLE SOURCE Social networks Percentage of farmers who operate independently Computed by extracting farmers who indicated that they do not work with other farmers (operate independently) Author’s research Percentage of households lacking access to assistance from outside community Created by selecting and filtering households that do not receive assistance from outside the community Author’s research Percentage of households without any member in any community group or organization Computed by selecting and filtering household in which no member is a part of any community group or organization Author’s research Livelihood strategies Percentage of households in which no member has off-farm employment Computed by selecting and filtering farmers who indicated that no off-farm activity exist in their household Author’s research Average Agricultural Livelihood Diversification Index (range: 0.20–1) The inverse of (the number of agricultural livelihood activities +1) reported by a household. Diversification Index = 1/(n + 1) Hahn et al (2009) Percent of households dependent solely on agriculture as a source of income Created by filtering farmers who indicated that agriculture was their only source of income Hahn et al (2009) Income diversification index (range: 0–1) The inverse of number of alternative income generating activities (alternative income activities +1). Income diversification index = 1/(n + 1). Similar method used by Hahn et al(2009) to compute the Average Agricultural Livelihood Diversification Index Author’s research Socio-demographic Percentage of farmers above the mean age (52 years) Derived from the variable ‘Age’ and recoded to exclude farmers under the age of 52 years Author’s research Percentage female-headed household Variable was computed by filtering females who declared that they were heads of their households Hahn et al (2009) Percentage of household heads with no schooling Variable was computed by selecting heads of households who did not receive any formal education Hahn et al (2009) Percentage of households with > 4 children Created by extracting all the households with more than 4 children Author’s research Percent of households with more than 5 members Created by extracting all the households with more than 5 members Author’s research Water security Percentage households reporting water problem Derived from the number of farmers indicating that they face problems obtaining water for farm and household Author’s research Percentage of households that do not practice water harvesting Derived from the number of farmers indicating that they do not practice water harvesting Author’s research Percentage of households that buy water Derived from the number of farmers who are dependent on purchased water Author’s research Percentage of farmers primarily dependent on rainfall Derived from the total number of farmers who depend on the rainfall to cultivate crops Author’s research Food Percentage of households dependent on farm for food Computed from the number of farmers who indicated that they rely of their farm for food Author’s research Percentage of farmers having problems obtaining planting material Created from the number of farmers who have problems obtaining planting material Author’s research Average Crop Diversity Index (range: 0–1) Computed by inversing the number of crops grown by each farmer +1. Diversity Index = 1/(n + 1). Similar method used by Hahn (2009) to compute the Average Agricultural Livelihood Diversification Index Author’s research Natural disasters and climate variability Percentage of farmers with more than 4 production failures in the last 10 years Computed by averaging the number of ‘major’ crop failures experienced by farmers in the last 10 years (which is 4) and then filtering the number of farmers who fall above this threshold Author’s research Percentage of farmers reporting that they do not practice disaster mitigation Created by combining the number of farmers reporting that they do not do anything to mitigate the impacts of droughts and hurricanes Author’s research Percentage of farmers taking more than 6 months to restore production levels Computed by recoding the variable ‘recovery time’ to filter all farmers reporting that they take more than one year to restore production levels after crop failure to to a hurricane or a drought event Author’s research Percentage of farmers not receiving early warning information Derived from the number of farmers reporting a lack of disaster related information (warnings and updates) Author’s research Percentage of farmers who do not receive assistance from RADA Derived from the number of farmers who stated that they have never received assistance from RADA Author’s research Food imports Average number of crops not grown because of food imports Computed by averaging the number of crops not grown by farmers because of food imports (weighted according to the main cash crop in each community) Author’s research Percentage of farmers negatively affected by food imports Derived from the number of farmers in each community who indicated that they are negatively affected by food imports Author’s research Percentage of farmers who have lost market to food imports Derived from the number of farmers who indicated that food imports as the reason for them not having a market for their produce Author’s research Natural and physical assets Percentage of farmers not owning farmland Computed by recoding the variable ‘land tenure’ to filter all the farmers who indicated that they do not own their farmland Author’s research Number of farm plots (inverse) Created by inversing the number of plots owned by a farmer +1. Farm plot index = 1/(n + 1). Similar method used by Hahn et al (2009) to compute the Average Agricultural Livelihood Diversification Index Author’s research Percentage of farmers not having access to enough farmland Derived from the number of farmers reporting insufficient amount of farmland Author’s research Farm technology usage (inverse) Computed by summing (out of a total of 4) the number of farm technology items (hybrid seeds, synthetic fertilizer, agro-chemicals and drip irrigation) used by farmers Author’s research

34. LIVELIHOOD VULNERABILITY INDEX Very Low = 0-0.20 Low = 0.21-0.30 Moderate= 0.40-0.60 High= 0.60-0.80 Very High= 0.81-1

35. LIVELIHOOD VULNERABILITY INDEX Community Total Potsdam Top Hill Southfield Flagaman Vulnerability Very Low 1 4 6 4 15 6.7% 26.7% 40.0% 26.7% 100.0% Low 7 11 7 7 32 21.9% 34.4% 21.9% 21.9% 100.0% Moderate 24 38 21 41 124 19.4% 30.6% 16.9% 33.1% 100.0% High 26 25 20 19 90 28.9% 27.8% 22.2% 21.1% 100.0% Very High 9 2 4 6 21 42.9% 9.5% 19.0% 28.6% 100.0% Total 67 80 58 77 282 23.8% 28.4% 20.6% 27.3% 100.0%

36. Vulnerability patterns

37. The LVI-IPCC framework IPCC framework Major components Exposure Natural disaster and climate variability Food imports* Adaptive capacity Socio-demographic profile Livelihood strategies Social network Natural and physical assets* Sensitivity Water Food

38. The LVI-IPCC framework IPCC components Major components Potsdam Top Hill Southfield Flagaman Exposure Natural disaster and climate variability 0.64 (1) 0.54 (4) 0.61 (2) 0.56 (3) Food imports 0.59 (2) 0.54 (3) 0.60 (1) 0.54 (3) Adaptive capacity Socio-demographics 0.31 (1) 0.35 (4) 0.34 (3) 0.32 (2) Livelihood strategies 0.59 (4) 0.46 (1) 0.56 (3) 0.52 (2) Social network 0.61 (1) 0.78 (3) 0.64 (2) 0.81 (4) Natural and physical assets 0.28 (2) 0.30 (4) 0.29 (3) 0.26 (1) Sensitivity Water 0.60 (1) 0.53 (4) 0.58 (2) 0.55 (3) Food 0.46 (2) 0.45 (3) 0.46 (2) 0.50 (1) LVI Score 0.510 0.494 0.510 0.508 IPCC components Potsdam Top Hill Southfield Flagaman Exposure 0.62 (1) 0.54 (4) 0.61 (2) 0.55 (3) Adaptive capacity 0.46 (2) 0.47 (2) 0.45 (1) 0.48 (3) Sensitivity 0.53 (2) 0.49 (4) 0.52 (3) 0.54 (1) LVI-IPCC framework [(Exposure – Adaptive capacity ) x Sensitivity] 0.09 (1) 0.03 (4) 0.08 (2) 0.04 (3)

39. The LVI-IPCC framework