Presentation delivered at the CIALCA international conference 'Challenges and Opportunities to the agricultural intensification of the humid highland systems of sub-Saharan Africa'. Kigali, Rwanda, October 24-27 2011.
Mosnier - Impacts of improved transportation infrastructure on agricultural sector in the Congo Basin
1. Impacts of improved transportation
infrastructure on agricultural sector in the Congo
Basin
A. Mosnier , P. Havlik, M.
Obersteiner, K. Aoki, E. Schmid
International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
University of Natural Resources and Applied
Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria
International CIALCA Conference, Kigali, Rwanda, October 24-27
2. Introduction
Congo Basin
Cameroon
Congo Republic
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
Central African Republic (CAR)
Gabon
Equatorial Guinea
3. Introduction
• Mainly subsistence agriculture
• 80% of the territory is
• Food production per capita has covered by forests =>
decreased over the last decade agriculture main driver
and net imports have increased of deforestation
4. Introduction
• 1/3 of increase in cereal production worldwide has been attributed to
fertilizer related factors
• Average fertilizer use in SSA ~8 kg/ha vs. 54 kg/ha in Latin America
and 80 kg/ha in South Asia.
• In the Congo Basin, only Cameroon is a significant user of fertilizer
• Problem of poor transportation infrastructures in the Congo Basin
Fertilizer use per arable land in 2008
(kg nutrients/ha)
Cameroon Congo DRC Gabon
Nitrogen 3.37 0.06 0.20 0.07
Phosphate 0.79 0.00 0.04 0.03
Potash 1.30 0.02 0.05 1.35
Total 5.45 0.09 0.29 1.45
Source: State of the forest 2008 and
FAOSTAT
5. Introduction
Literature highlights:
Positive impact of transportation infrastructure on
agriculture
Negative impact of transportation infrastructure on forest
cover
• What will be the effect of transportation infrastructure
development on agricultural sector in the Congo Basin?
10. Productivity change
EPIC Major outputs:
• Crop yields, Input Requirements, Environmental effects (e.g.
soil carbon, )
• For 18 crops (>75% of harvested area)
• And 4 management systems: High input, Low input,
Irrigated, Subsistence
In GLOBIOM, endogenous yield change through:
• Production increase in more (or less) fertile areas
• Change in management practices
11. Internal transportation costs
Compute time from a methodology
developed by Nelson (2006) using
several GIS datasets
Closest market:
for food crops = city above 300 000
inhabitants
for cash crops, timber and fertilizers= port
Transportation cost per simulation unit
(between 10x10 and 50x50km) :
Tc = constant + wage.hours + fuel price.
fuel consumption.distance + other
costs. distance
Parameters from literature review
(Teravaninthorn and Raballand, 2009;
ILO; GTZ)
13. Baseline
• Period 2000-2030, 10 year-steps (recursive dynamics)
• Demand exogenously driven:
– By GDP for processed wood
– By population for fuel wood
– By both for food = minimum calorie intake p.c. differentiated
between vegetable and animal calories (FAO, 2006a)
– Bioenergy use from POLES model (Russ et al., 2007) and
World Energy Outlook estimates (IEA-2006)
• Fixed crop mix per simulation unit
• No exogenous agricultural productivity growth
15. Scenarios
• The reduction of transportation costs affect:
1) Farm output prices
2) Fertilizer cost
• Scenarios to distinguish these different effects:
INFRA1 = channel 1) only
INFRA2 = channels 1) and 2)
DIFHI = increase of the productivity in the high input system
by 5% between 2020-2030)
17. Results
Baseline INFRA1 INFRA2 DIFHI
High Input and Irrigated 12.7% 12.7% 19.9% 57.1%
DRC
Subsistence- Low input 87.3% 87.3% 80.1% 42.9%
High Input and Irrigated 8.7% 9.2% 12.7% 48.3%
Congo Basin
Subsistence- Low input 91.3% 90.8% 87.3% 51.7%
18. Results
Relative land use change compared to the baseline level by 2030
INFRA1 INFRA2 DIFHI
Cropland 12.9% 17.4% 15.1%
DRC
Forests -4.2% -4.4% -3.9%
Congo Cropland 3.2% 4.7% 2.2%
Basin Forests -0.4% -0.4% 0.0%
Average annual C02 emissions from deforestation over 2020-2030 (in
MtCO2)
Baseline INFRA1 INFRA2 DIFHI
DRC 36 50 51 47
Congo
Basin 68 76 76 68
19. Conclusion
Transportation infrastructure improvement provides incentives:
to increase agricultural production
to switch to more intensive systems even if it remains
limited to 13% of the cropped area in the Congo Basin and
20% in the DRC by 2030
=> support to further increase efficiency of fertilizer use could
lead to significant intensification in the region
• However, it is most probably than intensification will not
impede deforestation increase, especially in dense forests
area of DRC
=> land tenure definition and implementation with delineation
of protected area/permanent forests area
20. Concluding remarks
• Transportation infrastructure could not necessarily lead to
transportation cost reduction
• Need for continuous efforts to maintain infrastructures in
good shape
• There are other non-cost factors that play an important role
for new technology adoption
• Other problems related to increase fertilizer use: higher
costs in the future, environmental sustainability,…
21. Thank you !
For more information :
www.globiom.org
Contact: mosnier@iiasa.ac.at
Hinweis der Redaktion
The difference between potential yield and observed yield is particularly high in the Congo Basin. This is particularly striking when comparing the yield of agricultural products in the Congo Basin with those in other tropical regions. In the Congo Basin, the last two decades were characterized by drastic cuts in governments’ budgets following the fall in commodity price at the end of the 80s and the debt crisis. From independence to the beginning of the 90s, the marketing of cash crops was subject to heavy state involvement through control of producer prices, distribution of free or largely subsidized fertilizers and fungicides, and exports of the products. The government discontinued the service with the liberalization of the marketing sector and many farmers abandoned their farms or replaced the trees by food crop (Duguma et al., 2008; MagnagnaNguema, 2005). The devaluation of the CFA currency in 1994 improved the competitiveness of exported products but at the same time increased the costs of imported inputs as seeds and fertilizers.
The ultimate decision depends on whether farmers believe they will make more money with the fertilizer than with alternative uses of the available cash. Alternatives: fattening an animal, nonfarm activities or land clearing for land expansion. Relative profitability is important. Commercial agriculture is a sine qua non for fertilizers. The few insights we have into what works in SSA come mainly from the cotton sector: vertically coordinated schemes where input, output and credit markets are linked. As concerns for environment increase, more attention to fertilizer’s environmental benefits and potential inconveniences once high levels of use are attained (soil acidification, water pollution) will be needed.