Presentation delivered at the CIALCA international conference 'Challenges and Opportunities to the agricultural intensification of the humid highland systems of sub-Saharan Africa'. Kigali, Rwanda, October 24-27 2011.

1. Brian Keating, Peter Carberry and John Dixon Presentation to CIALCA Conference Kigali, Rwanda - October 2011 Sustainable intensification and the food security challenge Looking east, Machakos Hills, Kenya, 1986

3. Issue 1 . Agricultural production and intensification in a wider food security context

4. Picture: AFP

6. The emerging 2010/11 food price peaks …

7. Global Hunger Index IFPRI et al (2011)

8. Global Hunger Index (trend 1990-2011)

9. Key Message1 . Food security is a global challenge that plays out at local scales. Agricultural production growth is a necessary but not sufficient global response. .

10. Issue 2. What does the future global food demand trajectory look like?

11. The food demand challenge – in perspective From Keating and Carberry (2010) Sustainable production, food security and supply chain implications. Aspects of Applied Biology , 102, 7-20.

12. Food demand scenarios 1960 to 2050

13. Lower relative production increase .... 71% 129%

14. 17 14 14 petacal/day increase (in 2010 above 1970) 17 petacal/day increase (in 2050 above 2010) But higher absolute production increases ....

15. ... and all this in the face of climate change

16. Key Message 2 . The global food production challenge in the 21 st Century is at least as great as that faced in the second half of the 20 th Century.

17. Issue 3. What pathways are available to fill anticipated food demand?

18. A “mega-wedge” of food demand ? 127 x 10 18 calories

19. Other “mega-wedges” of food demand ? Filling the Production Demand Avoiding losses of productive capacity

20. Other “mega-wedges” of food demand ? Filling the Production Demand Avoiding losses of productive capacity Reducing the Demand

25. Issue 4. What does looking back to the 20 th Century tell us about increasing production?

26. Between 1961 and 2008, food calories produced increased by 179% while population grew 117% Meat, Oilseeds, Fruit and Vegetables all increased relative to cereals. Tubers decreased Food production and population – looking back

27. Global agricultural production – looking back Net land under cultivation increased by 15% Yields increased 2-3 fold

29. The “Green Revolution” has not yet reached Africa Yield and area drivers of expanded cereal production contrasted for Asia and Africa over the 1961 to 2004 period. (World Bank, 2008) Asia Africa

30. Key Message 4 . Agricultural intensification has provided the primary pathway to global food security to date – except for sub-Saharan Africa.

31. Issue 5. Can agricultural intensification be sustainable?

33. A carbon constrained world ... GHGs loads on the atmosphere need to be reduced by 50-85% to limit global warming to under 2 o C in 2050 This implies a 3 to 6 fold reduction in GHG intensity for global agriculture in 2050, assuming agricultural output goes up 50% Land Clearing and Forestry 17% Agriculture 14%

36. Key Message 5. Intensification to date has not always been sustainable – with complex agriculture-environment interactions across scales. Future growth in agricultural output has to be achieved with enhanced “eco-efficiency”.

37. Issue 6 . The case for sustainable intensification in sub Saharan Africa (SSA)

38. Agricultural output in Africa is growing – but at half the pace of Asia and South America Changes in net agricultural production (1961–2007) Pretty et al (2010) Africa Asia Sth America Food Production (1961=100)

39. Per capita agricultural production has not increased in Africa since 1960 Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures Synthesis Report C9: Sustainable intensification in African agriculture – analysis of cases and common lessons Africa World South America Asia Africa Per Capita Food Production (1961=100)

40. Agricultural output is growing in Africa, but .... Africa: changes in net agricultural production (1961–2007) Pretty et al 2010 North and West Africa East Africa Sth. and Cent. Africa Food Production (1961=100)

41. 20-40% declines in per capita food production in east, central and southern Africa Changes in per capita net agricultural production (1961–2007) Pretty et al (2010) East, Sth. and Central Africa Per Capita Food Production (1961=100)

42. Population is projected to double in sub Saharan Africa by 2050 UN Population Division. 2006 Revision. World Population Prospects . Sub Saharan Africa

43. (FAOSTAT and NARO, 2006/07) Yield Gap expressed as fraction of potential yield not being achieved Large yield gaps exist in SSA Crop Yield (t/ha) Yield (t/ha) Yield gap (%) Maize 1.5 7 79 Millet 1.8 5 64 Beans 0.5 3 83 Sweet potato 4.5 30 85 Cassava 12.7 50 75 Bananas 4.6 35 87

44. Maize yield gaps generally in the 60-80% range in SSA Based on national yields compared to farm demonstration plots Based on national yields compared to modelled potential yields

45. Significant potential for agricultural expansion in Africa Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal ) FAOSTAT, FAO Terrastat http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/current_and_potential_arable_ land_use_in_africa

46. Key Message 6 . Sub-Saharan Africa has both land expansion and intensification options. To achieve food security in 2050, some regions will need to double yields, others likely to also engage in land expansion.

47. Issue 7. What technical constraints are limiting crop productivity in sub Saharan Africa’s small farms ?

48. Sub Saharan Africa is home to a diverse range of farming systems

50. Yield Reducing Factors Yield Reduction (kg/ha) Yield Reducing Factors: Mixed Maize Systems Africa Low Soil Fertility Low Soil Nitrogen Based on expert elicitation process, Dixon et al (pers comm.)

52. On-farm performance of seeds and fertilisers (micro-dosing) (Twomlow and Rohrbach 2006). 5% 50% 20% 80% Farmer practice

53. Key Message 7 . Improved soil fertility and nutrient supply are fundamental to any effort to intensify agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa

54. Issue 8 . Farming systems are complex and variable in space and time. Do we have the necessary tools and approaches?

55. A crowded history of research for development approaches 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 1960’s 1970’s On Station Research Extension based technology transfer NIE FSR OFR RRA PRA PAR PTD FTR FFS PPB AKIS PI&D IRD BB’s MBTs SRLs FARMSCAPE INRM IGNRM IAR4D IS IP ERI CASE PLAR RDs CCNR AR ARD FS

57. Different lenses through which intensification can be viewed Global and regional food supply Rural development and food security Livelihood opportunities, poverty reduction A farmer’s view of the farming system

59. The integration challenge ..... No one research activity area is likely to be able to make much progress on its own in the light of the 21 st Century drivers and needs.

60. Key Message 8 . A systematic approach to diagnosis and prescription of productivity performance and constraints is needed. Continued need for enhanced tools, approaches and capabilities for farming systems and value chain analysis across scales.

61. Issue 9 . Why has the intensification of sub-Saharan African agriculture lagged so far behind the rest of the world ?

62. Key Message 9 . Likely that the technical constraints cannot be solved without broad-based institutional innovation . How to stimulate such institutional development is the key challenge. The people in this room have an important role to play.

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