1. Themes emerging from BIG’s
Foresight programme
Report 1 Highlights
Prepared for Big Lottery Fund
March 2014

2. Needs associated with an ageing society are well understood, but
local areas have very different levels of exposure to ageing…
Highest proportion of older people % 65+ Lowest Proportion of older people % 65+
Christchurch 29.7% Tower Hamlets 6.1%
West Somerset 29.1% Newham 6.7%
North Norfolk 28.8% Hackney 7.1%
Rother 28.4% Lambeth 7.7%
East Devon 28.2% Southwark 7.7%
UK Census 2011
Although each constituent UK Nation is ageing at similar paces there are sharp
disparities at local and regional level.
Some areas of the UK are ageing at a faster rate than others – typically those based in
the South West of around the South East coast, which are popular retirement areas
The concentration of older people within rural communities increases the
risk of both geographical and digital isolation. Although older people are
likely to have higher levels of subjective wellbeing, isolation can negatively
affect this

3. Source: ONS population projections
Less well reported are the needs associated
with the recent uplift in birth rate in the UK…
4,600,000
4,800,000
5,000,000
5,200,000
5,400,000
5,600,000
5,800,000 Number of children in the UK
5-11 year olds 12-18 year olds
• The number of schools in the UK is
declining – in England, there are
nearly 3,000 fewer than in 1990
• However, the high birth rate over
the past 15 years is causing rising
numbers of children - meaning that
for many areas the supply of
places may not meet demand
• Other demographic trends are also
causing challenges for schools –
immigration in recent years has led
to more than a million school pupils
having English as an Additional
language
School provision will be a central issue over the next few years as the rising number
of children challenges existing capacity. Within education, new challenges are
emerging – particularly for those with additional needs, such as language barriers

4. Source: ONS, Household final consumption expenditure
Rising housing costs put increased pressure on
household budgets…
9% 9% 9%
20% 24% 26%
14%
14% 14%
12%
11% 11%
10%
10% 10%
14% 12% 10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2009 2012
Food and drink
Alcohol and tobacco
Clothing and footwear
Housing
Household goods/services
Health
Transport
Communication
Recreation and culture
Education
Restaurants and hotels
Miscellaneous
• Increases in the cost of living are
primarily being driven by rises in
housing costs.
• As a proportion of total spending,
other major areas (including leisure,
food and drink and transport) have
all remained stable.
• Individual spending priorities vary
widely across the country, marking
the need for targeted action rather
than a blanket approach.
• Housing costs in London, for
example, are £30 a week higher than
the UK average – and twice as high
as the lowest spending area (North
East).
Increases in the cost of living of the past few years have been caused primarily by rising
housing costs, with consumers cutting back in other areas. These trends also vary across
the country, with different priorities and costs associated with different regions

5. Mental ill health is an increasing driver of social
need with apparently different incidence rates…
4.7%
8.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Men Women
7.6% 7.5%
6.7%
4.3%
3.5%
2.7% 2.5%
2.2% 2.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Incidence of clinical depression varies widely by both gender and ethnicity – with
men half as likely as women to be diagnosed. Some ethnic groups, such as
Bangladeshi, Chinese and Indian far less likely than the national average to be
diagnosed
Source: Understanding Society, 2010-11. Base: 47,605

6. However, it seems that the real issue is a
diagnosis gap for BME groups…
However, while certain ethnicities are far less likely to be diagnosed, they are not any
less likely to feel ‘downhearted or depressed’ all or most of the time. As the chart below
shows, there is a major gap between feeling depressed and being diagnosed (women
only)
13.2%
11.5%
10.6%
8.6%
8.2% 8.2% 8.1%
3.9%
4.9%
9.8%
2.4%
3.8%
2.9% 2.9%
9.3%
2.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Pakistani Mixed Bangladeshi Other Indian Black White Chinese
Feeling downhearted and depressed all or most of the time
Diagnosed with clinical depression
Source: Understanding Society, 2010-11. Base: 26,630

7. National data suggest that community cohesion is
in decline, though local data is more positive…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Do you think there is generally more
or less racial prejudice in Britain now
than there was 5 years ago
More now Less now
• The last decade has seen a substantial and
sustained rise in the proportion of people in
the UK who believe there is more racial
prejudice in the UK than previously.
• Although in recent years this has declined
to 39%, it is still almost twice as high as the
record low (20% in 1998)
• However, one positive note is that amongst
local communities, racial cohesion is much
more positive – with 91% of Asian people
and 87% of black people agreeing that
people from different backgrounds get on
well together in their local area
Source: British Social
Attitudes 2012
Although people generally have a positive opinion of their local communities,
there is an increasing perception that racial prejudice is increasing elsewhere in
the UK

8. For the full report please visit…
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