A refreshingly pragmatic view on the challenge of confronting Climate change by Mark Trexler, Director, Climate Markets and Strategies at Det Norske Veritas. After reviewing it, be sure to take share your thoughts by completing the survey he developed at http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/KWG7JXB.

1. In my LinkedIn profile I define “climatography”
as the science of mapping how to get from
“here to there” in successfully tackling climate
change. Unfortunately, I don’t think any of us
know how to get there. This presentation
argues that we stand a better chance of
success by accepting this fact, and deploying
new strategies and tools in the fight.
The Climatographer’s Dilemma:
Not Knowing How to Get From Here to There
Dr. Mark C. Trexler (mark.trexler@dnv.com)
Director, Climate Markets and Strategies
25 February 2010

2. A Problem Well Stated is
a Problem Half-Solved
Charles Kettering
February 25, 2010
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3. Appropriately framing the climate change
problem is certainly crucial, and I don’t think
we’re there today.
A Problem Well Stated is
a Problem Half-Solved
Charles Kettering
February 25, 2010
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4. The Climate Policy End Game
February 25, 2010
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5. The Climate Policy End Game
I think it’s safe to say that any response to
climate change will be defined by: 1) a carbon
price that changes behaviors, 2) radical
technology innovation that changes costs,
and/or 3) adaptation that picks up the pieces.
#1 and/or #2 have to be the end game of
climate policy. #3 is inevitable.
February 25, 2010
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6. Today’s Climate Change Toolbox
February 25, 2010
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7. Today’s climate change toolbox is relatively simple, and is dominated by efforts to
Today’s Climate Change Toolbox
implement legislation at several levels, and incentives in key areas like energy
efficiency and renewables
February 25, 2010
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8. But Climate Change is Different
February 25, 2010
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9. I would argue that the challenges listed below make climate change
But Climate Change is Different
dramatically unlike any other environmental problem we have faced. It is
almost impossible to imagine a problem our economic and political systems
are less suited to addressing. Well understood problems with risk and
scientific literacy at the level of individuals (voters) compound the problem.
February 25, 2010
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10. Which Creates a Problem
There’s a great (copyrighted) Sidney Harris cartoon showing a complicated
mathematical formula on a blackboard, with “insert miracle here” as step two.
And one of the professors is saying “I think you need to focus on step two!”
I don’t think its an overstatement to say that successfully overcoming the
climate change problem as characterized in the prior slide would be a miracle
by almost any definition. The notion of a miracle also helps illustrate my
argument that we don’t know how to get from here to there when it comes to
climate change.
February 25, 2010
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11. Charting the Miracle
February 25, 2010
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12. Charting the Miracle The magnitude of the
miracle that’s required can
be graphically illustrated,
although any such graph
doesn’t do justice to the
challenges associated
with actually changing
global GHG emissions
trajectories to the required
degree (pun intended).
February 25, 2010
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13. Miracle Solving 101
Source: istockphoto.com
February 25, 2010
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14. Miracle Solving 101
Going back to the idea of “climatography,” and
combining it with the challenges discussed in
slide 5, what we need to do to get “from here to
there” is to wend our way through a particularly
complicated economic, political, and behavioral
maze. As with any complicated maze, you
don’t know before hand how exactly you’re
going to get to the finish line, or if you’ll
succeed at all.
Source: istockphoto.com
February 25, 2010
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15. Climate Change as a Technology Challenge
Source: Socolow’s Wedges
February 25, 2010
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16. It is very easy to characterize climate change as a technology challenge, and
Climate Change as a Technology Challenge
technology will be key if climate change is successfully addressed. But if problem-
solving were as simple as pointing to technologies that “could” solve the problem,
the world would face far fewer problems than it does today.
Source: Socolow’s Wedges
February 25, 2010
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17. Climate Change as a Very Large Puzzle
Source: istockphoto.com
February 25, 2010
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18. Climate Change as a Very Large Puzzle
Complementing the
notion of a
complicated maze, I
think an effective way
to think about climate
change mitigation is
as a complicated
jigsaw puzzle.
Without scientific
literacy we are
unlikely to see the
needed policy?
Without a carbon
price, can we get the
needed technology
innovation? There
are lots of pieces in
the climate change Source: istockphoto.com
jigsaw puzzle.
February 25, 2010
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19. We Need a Bigger Climate Toolbox
February 25, 2010
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20. We Need a Bigger Climate Toolbox
Befitting the complexity of the climate change
problem, and the absence of any silver bullet
solutions, the expanded toolbox illustrated here
suggests that we have a lot more options at our
disposal than an exclusive emphasis on
national and international legislation (as
important as they might be, and they’re still in
this toolbox). Deploying a wider variety of tools
might result in outcomes and synergies that we
simply can’t anticipate today. Aggressively
deploying this diversity of tools might show us
the way to successfully addressing climate
change. It might even be easier than we have
any right to expect (if we can incentivize radical
technology innovation for example).
February 25, 2010
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21. With the Right Tools, What Might Happen?
Source: istockphoto.com
February 25, 2010
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22. With the Right Tools, What Might Happen?
Many of the tools shown in the prior slide may
strike observers as indirect, or as likely taking
too long to have an effect. “We don’t have time
for this” is a common response to the point I’m
trying to make about reframing the climate
change problem. But even though the tools in
today’s climate change toolbox (slide 4) seem a
lot more direct and faster-acting, are they
really? Kyoto was 13 years ago. Where are
we today?
Source: istockphoto.com
February 25, 2010
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23. The Real Path to Climate Change Mitigation?
© Rube Goldberg Inc.
February 25, 2010
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24. The Real Path to Climate Change Mitigation?
Another way to re-frame the climate change
problem is to get away from the focus on
“straight line” solutions that dominate today’s
climate change toolbox. Any successful climate
change effort is likely to look much more like a
Rube Goldberg machine than a straight line. If
we can accept this fact, it can free us up to be
much more innovative in our approaches to
tackling climate change. Specifically, let’s start
looking for ways to deploy the many tools in the
expanded climate change toolbox, and see how
quickly synergies start to emerge.
© Rube Goldberg Inc.
February 25, 2010
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25. Again and again, the impossible
problem is solved when we see
that the problem is only a tough
decision waiting to be made.
Robert Shuller
February 25, 2010
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26. I think this is a great metaphor for climate change. But don’t we already
understand that addressing climate change requires tough decisions to be made?
The problem is that we appear fundamentally unwilling to make those decisions,
and that’s why climate change may be the impossible problem. But since we
can’t give up, let’s at least increase the odds of success by thinking outside the
box.
Again and again, the impossible
problem is solved when we see
that the problem is only a tough
decision waiting to be made.
Robert Shuller
February 25, 2010
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27. Key Presentation Issues
The Nature of the Today’s Climate
Climate Policy End Game Change Toolbox
Climate Change as a The Expanded Climate
Different Problem Change Toolbox
Climate Change Policy A Climate Solution as a
As a Jigsaw Puzzle Rube Goldberg Machine
February 25, 2010
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28. These boxes reflect key points that underpin the case I’m trying to make in this
Key Presentation Issues
presentation. Your feedback on these points, and on the presentation itself, would
be very welcome. You can reach me through LinkedIn or at mark.trexler@dnv.com
The Nature of the Today’s Climate
Climate Policy End Game Change Toolbox
Climate Change as a The Expanded Climate
Different Problem Change Toolbox
Climate Change Policy A Climate Solution as a
As a Jigsaw Puzzle Rube Goldberg Machine
February 25, 2010
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29. Safeguarding life, property
and the environment
www.dnv.com
February 25, 2010
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