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Virtual Reality Continuum

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Virtual Reality Continuum

  1. 1. AMP New Ventures / Technology Innovation Virtual Reality (VR) Continuum December 2016
  2. 2. 1 Perspective If the Internet is the sharing of information, then Virtual Reality (VR) is the sharing of experiences; and if most customer experiences are digital, then Virtual Reality (VR) must be important, for it is the next frontier in digital. VR immerses users in indistinguishably real simulated environments, while Augmented Reality (AR) blends the digital into our physical environments. In the past month, PlayStation VR was released along with Google VR, to join a global ecosystem of VR content, infrastructure and platforms startups, projected to be worth $160bn by 2020. Given It will transform experiences across industries, including Financial Services, and the expert consensus is that mainstream adoption is ~5 years away, we recommend Financial Services companies start exploring VR/AR possibilities now.
  3. 3. Contents Perspective Ecosystem Virtual Reality (VR) Augmented Reality (AR) Applications • Financial Services • The new social media • vCommerce • Workplace transformation Why now Market size 26 Startup examples 30 2 3 5 12 1 19 20 17 22 21 18
  4. 4. 3 Virtual Reality User in completely digital world Augmented Reality (AR) Digital assets overlaid onto the real world Augmented Virtuality (AV) Real world objects or avatars in virtual world Reality experiences sit on a continuum from reality to fully immersive Source: Trekk
  5. 5. 4 Source: TheVRfund VR ecosystem consists of infrastructure, platform and content startups
  6. 6. 7 There are two kinds of people: Those who think VR will change the world. And those who haven’t tried VR. 5
  7. 7. 6 Virtual Reality An immersive simulation of a 3D environment, created using interactive software and hardware, and experienced or controlled by the user through the body. AR Applications Why nowVR Investment Startup Examples
  8. 8. VR has evolved from simple pictures to powerful immersive experiences over the past 60 years 7 Selected Milestones 1960:Sensorama prototype by Morton Heilig 1968: First HMD system: The sword of Damocles 1985:Data Glove for commercial use by VPL 1987:Virtual Reality coined by VPL’s Lanier 1993:Sega announces VR prototype 1999:’The Matrix’ released 2007: Google introduces Street View 2014: Facebook buys Oculus for US $2bn 2014:Google invests US$500m in Magic Leap 1994:Nintento releases Virtual Boy 1983: First Nintendo released Present Feb 2016: Alibaba invests ~$800m in Magic Leap Sep 2016: PlayStation VR Released Oct 2016: Facebook demos VR Social Media 2014: Google Cardboard released
  9. 9. 8 Video is sent from the smartphone, console or computer to the headset via a HDMI cable on to a HD display The picture sits behind a lens and ranges up to 360 degree field of view but is typically 100 or 110. The wearer sees an expansive 3D panorama Interchangeable lenses for different sizes and sight conditions Accelerometer that detects head movements Gyroscope that helps the video rotate in 3 different axis (X,Y,Z) Infrared sensors for eye tracking Source: MIT technology review Oculus Rift Headset teardown
  10. 10. 9 Today’s range in headsets It is likely that AR and VR headsets will converge into one that does both Price (USD) $3000 $800 $800 $400 $100 $80 $5 Release date March 2016 May 2016 March 2016 October 2016 December 2015 November 2016 June 2015 Units shipped ~10k ~500k ~500k 2.6m ~2.3m 500k 10m+ Platform In-built PC PC PC PlayStation 4 Samsung Flagship phone PC Mobile Mobility Yes No No No Yes Yes Yes Controller Camera and depth sensor Laser towers Handheld remote (Oculus touch) Dualshock 4 and PS Move Trackpad Handheld remote Single button HTC Vive Samsung Gear VR Microsoft Hololens (AR) PlayStation VR Google Daydream Google Cardboard Oculus Rift Stand-alone device Tethered to another device (PC, Console etc.) Cradle that holds a mobile phone High-end Cheap
  11. 11. 10 Capture: Use a Multi-camera rig to capture video or objects across a 180* by 360* area simultaneously. VR film techniques (audio, framing, lighting etc.) are much more complicated that normal video shooting. Edit: Extract content from each camera via SD cards, sync in video software such as Autopano and stitch together 360 spherical panorama shot. Effects such as sound, interactivity and colour can be added in. Watch: Use a VR headset, Cardboard VR Viewer or Mobile phone to view videos Nokia VR Camera Autopano software Oculus Rift Google Cardboard Virtual Reality How content is created Create: Objects can be built in virtual worlds through CGI (Computer generated imagery) or transferred into the virtual world through volumetric scans 1 2 3 OR
  12. 12. 11 Virtual Reality Applications span across industries Healthcare Surgeons operate in VR to practice difficult procedures ahead of time Entertainment Fully immersive cinematic experiences (Virtual stadiums, Concerts, Theatre) Manufacturing VR Headsets used to experience, build and inspect prototyping designs Education Virtual classes to observe historic, natural and architectural sites to drive deeper subject engagement Charity Charities are allowing people to experience first hand hardships such as war, poverty and natural disaster for a deeper impact Sporting Coaches using player point of view simulations to train teams, devise plays and re- visit past games Military Virtual combat simulations are used to train soldiers before they are deployed in real life Travel Travel agencies let customers experience destinations in VR before they book, from views such as helicopter or submarine
  13. 13. 12 Augmented Reality Digital information is overlayed onto the physical world AR Applications Why nowVR Investment Startup Examples
  14. 14. Augmented Reality (AR) supplements reality whereas Virtual Reality (VR) replaces reality 13 Augmented Reality (AR) is a hybrid reality technology, overlaying the real world with digitally rendered media. It is the overlap between the virtual and the real. AR is typically available through smartphones or devices such as Microsoft Hololens, which obtain geo locational information, and overlays it with with tags, Images, videos etc. Pokémon Go became the most viral app ever within 10 days of its release in 2016 Snapchat’s AR Lenses have attracted 100m+ daily active users Microsoft Hololens is a headset controlled by gestures, gaze and voice
  15. 15. How Augmented Reality (AR) works 14 Digital information is projected onto the object, usually computer generated videos/3D models. The software updates its projection multiple times per second in response to the environmental changes Camera identifies object 1 of 3 ways: • Markerless tracking: Computer vision is used to recognise objects • Marker tracking: A data code (e.g. QR) is printed on or near the object that the device scans and reacts to. • GPS tracking: Geolocation data is used to identify places (i.e. restaurants, landmarks etc.) Orientation is measured such as depth and movement using accelerometers, orientation and barometric sensors How content is created: Content developers use software such as Sketchup or Revit to design 3D models and implement animations. The more complex the character or object, the longer this will take. 3D content libraries such as Sketchfab are emerging where designers and developers publish open source content. 1 2 3
  16. 16. Optics System Light engine beams photos through holographic lens (waveguides) into the users eyes to project holographic images Microsoft Hololens Headset teardown 15 Companies such as Google and Samsung have submitted patents for ‘Smart contact lenses’ built for AR. Depth Camera To sense how far away things are with a 120 x 120 degree span of vision In-built Computer which contains CPU, GPU and HPU receiving terabytes of data every second from sensors Mixed reality video camera 2 megapixel camera that records what you see including holographic elements Microphone for voice commands
  17. 17. 16 Augmented Reality Applications span across industries Healthcare Handheld scanners that project over skin to show up veins, as well as AR glasses to help operate in the surgery room Entertainment A wave of AR gaming apps such as Pokémon Go and Ingress have gained mass popularity, along with social media applications such as Snapchat Retail Items can be scanned with AR tech to surface specs such as price, stock and make. For example, Ikea is allowing consumers to visualise pieces of furniture in their homes using 3D models Education 3D models to help visualise sites or objects to deepen make learning more engaging Military Equipment such as the ARC4 allows commanders to transmit data such as maps and targets directly to the soldiers helmet Advertising Absolut Vodka launched an AR app that takes consumers on a 3D tour of Åhus, the Swedish village where the vodka is produced once scanned Industrial Manuals can show up on next to complicated manufacturing or industrial equipment once pointed at Tourism Overlaid geo-locational tagging and data, virtual hotel room selection and booking, automatic translations, GPS navigation
  18. 18. 17 Applications VR Continuum AR Applications Why nowVR Investment Startup Examples
  19. 19. 18 Financial Services If you want engagement, entertain Experiencing goals and retirement planning in VR Individuals could visualise their personal journeys toward retirement and relate to it in a meaningful way, beyond just numerical balance forecasts as seen in most financial plans today. In being more engaging, people would in turn better prioritise their decisions. A Stanford study has also proved that Millennials more actively engage with retirement planning after seeing an age-morphed version of themselves, now dubbed as the Proteus effect. Step into your future property Today, if you were to purchase a property off the plan, you are likely to be given a brochure and at best, a display suite. VR experiences will allow the buyer to walk inside a Virtual property, instantly testing and selecting features such as materials, colours, lighting etc. As home purchasing is an emotional decision, experiencing the actual space will lead to higher sales conversions. Start Smart VR – CBA Children don’t want to engage with lessons on money management because they feel it’s irrelevant to them, however CBA is making a bet on immersive entertainment to trigger engagement and improve financial literacy. In October 2016, CommBank (CBA) launched its Start Smart Virtual Reality pilot in 24 schools across Australia, where children experience the story book ‘Sammy the Space Koala’ with the aid of a VR headset, to reinforce money lessons learnt in class and distinguishing between a ‘Need’ and ‘Want’. Second lifestyle in Aged Care Is it possible that aged care residents in the future might choose to spend a large portion of the rest of their lives in Virtual worlds? Aged Care Residents at Mercy Health are being teleported around the world via a VR headset as part of a pilot designed specifically for aged care and dementia patients. As a result, some residents have significantly improved in sociability and memory.
  20. 20. 19 Vcommerce Immersion leads to conversion Ecommerce to Vcommerce In 2015, Amazon’s market cap surpassed Walmart, while for the first time, more U.S shoppers purchased online (103m) than in stores (102m) for Thanksgiving and Black Friday weekends. While this inflection point for e-commerce is testament to its rise in favour with shoppers, it still faces a longstanding challenge: human nature’s inherent desire to ‘try before you buy.’ 35% of shoppers would be more open to purchasing online if they could experience a product virtually, according to a Walkersands ‘Future of Retail 16’ report. Accordingly, E-commerce giants such EBay and Alibaba are aggressively doubling down on their VR strategies. Global E- commerce is set to hit USD $4t by 2020. Show me possibilities Coca Cola’s use of Cimagine’s AR technology allows businesses to visualise vending machines and fridge placements. Since its adoption, Coca Cola has seen a 20% increase in its sales of coolers, while decreasing its sales visits from 3 to 1. Meanwhile, Ikea’s is building an AR application that will allow customers to see what furniture would look like in their homes. VISA & House of Holland – Augmented Payments In August, Visa Europe experimented with their image recognition technology at the UK fashion brand House of Holland’s menswear launch, where consumers were able to point their mobile camera at models as they came out and purchase runway designs on the spot.
  21. 21. 20 Social media The future of social networking Deeper Social Interaction Undoubtedly, the next frontier in social media will be in a virtual space, where social interaction will be an attempted replication of real in-person interaction. This could solve a problem that today’s social platforms face, where the focus has been on posting media and following celebrities, rather than actual relationship-deepening interaction. Hang out anywhere Social VR will allow people to choose immersive and convincing settings to interact. It could be in the office, on the moon or on hammocks in the Hamptons. While this ‘Virtual Tourism’ could be exciting on its own, the live virtual presence of ‘friends’ is what will make it meaningful and increase time spent. Supernatural In a VR world, physical constraints such as gravity, space and material are non-existent, opening up supernatural possibilities and shared experiences such as flying, engaging in light saber battles, teleportation etc. Social VR (Facebook) Since purchasing Oculus in 2015 for $2bn, Facebook has doubled down on its effort in VR capabilities, growing its team to 400. In October 2016, Zuckerberg wow’d the world with a demonstration of Social VR, a platform Facebook is creating where people could meet in virtual environments as avatars to chat, play games, make calls, switch worlds and more. "We should build software and experiences that follow the way our minds work and process the world," Zuckerberg said. "Virtual reality is the perfect platform to put people first because of presence."
  22. 22. 21 Workspace Transformation Greater flexibility, mobility and cost reductions AR will bring life to data and make it simple Large amounts of data typically stored in spreadsheets, will be viewable and easily manipulated on the go, hands- free, increasing productivity. This could allow for easier off-site customer engagement, where agents could easily explain concepts, show designs and talk through data, without the need for a whiteboard or projector. Virtual conferencing: Unprecedented flexibility and mobility • The ability to collaborate and communicate face to face in a virtual space will allow a new form of flexibility and mobility, which is being increasingly valued by employees, especially motivated, organised and self- starter types. • Attending International conferences or meetings could be done easily from the comfort of a home or office, avoiding traveling time and costs, while still experiencing near-person intimacy. • Lower overhead costs, for suitable business which may no longer require leasing an office space full-time and as a result, reduce utility and technology costs. 3D design thinking will be applied to information so it can be best interpreted or experienced, making it particularly easier for those who are not familiar with numerical or technical formats. 8ninths / Citibank – Floating trade data 8ninths worked with Citibank to develop a Hololens app where financial traders can litter their environment with floating investment data visualisations such as graphs and charts to help them better consume information throughout their trading day.
  23. 23. 22 Why now VR Continuum AR Applications Why nowVR Investment Startup Examples
  24. 24. 23 Advancement in Graphics (GPUs) When Sony released the Nintendo console in 1983, 3D graphics entered the consumer home for the first time ever. Since then, over the past 20 years, video games have carried the torch for improvement in 3D Graphics. Why it matters For VR experiences to be convincing and comfortable, a minimum framerate of 60 per second is required, which in turn requires a minimum GPU and CPU power. Fortunately, Moore’s Law which states that the processing power of transistors doubles every year, has held and taken care of the commercial affordability of GPU and CPUs required to support immersive VR experiences. Computer cost/performance (1992 – 2012) Madden NFL 2004 vs.. Madden NFL 2015 Why now? Advancement in Video Game graphics
  25. 25. 24 Downward cost pressure via smartphones At the core of every VR headset are the guts of a smartphone (LCD Screen, Camera, Circuit Board). ~6bn billion people have smartphones (over 80% of the world population) and this mass production has driven down the cost of these components over time. For example, the estimated material cost of an Apple Iphone 5 (16g) is $168 with the HD LCD screen costing less than $20 and Camera less than $10. To draw a comparison, a 4k resolution 5.5 inch LCD screen (required for a VR experience) would have cost $8,500 in 2003. Cheaper MEMS (Gyroscopes, Accelerometers) VR headset components also include Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS), such as Gyroscopes and Accelerometers which have also dropped in price significantly, thanks in part to their broad use in smartphone and wearable devices. For example. A 3-axis accelerometer costing $3 in 2007 can now be purchased for $0.65, almost 5x cheaper. A 1-axis gyroscope was priced $15 in 2006 and are now available for under $2. Why now? Affordable Hardware
  26. 26. 25 Cost of content Content is yet to catch up to hardware in VR, due to the high development costs as professionals in this space (VR UX, 3D Modelling, Architects) are still rare. In film, Hollywood is yet to figure out effective cinematic techniques and are hesitant to invest in full length films. However, VR hardware producers are priming a wave of VR content. In June 2015, Oculus committed $10m to fund VR games, while in early 2016 HTC announced its allocation of $100m to the Vive x VR Accelerator. Motion Sickness Latency is still an issue, where there is a tiny but perceptible delay between when you move your head in VR and when the image in front of your eyes changes—creating a mismatch between how we feel and what we see. In VR, latency can be as low as 20 milliseconds, however this can easily increase depending on the application and cause some users to feel sick. Difficulty in tricking all senses VR is currently audio and visually immersive, however it is still hard to trick all senses such as physical limb movements or taste or smell. Haptic technologies are being to solve this, for example the Tactical Haptics Controller or Rift Touch bring ‘your hands into VR’ and AxonVR’s Exoskeleton lets you feel pressure and temperature in virtual worlds. Other challenges include building in impact physics and feeling the weight and gravity of virtual objects. Not yet? Limitations
  27. 27. 26 Investment VR Continuum AR Applications Why nowVR Investment Startup Examples
  28. 28. 27 $1.7b of AR/VR VC investments in the 12 months to Q1 2016 with $1.2b invested in Q1’16 , of which ~$800 m went into Magic Leap 4 AR/VR Unicorns exist today Magic Leap ($4.5bn), Oculus ($2bn), Blippar ($1.5bn), Mindmaze ($1bn) $800m investment in Magic Leap (Series C) $540m investment in Magic Leap (Series B) Source: Digi-Capital
  29. 29. 28 Revenue forecast AR/VR to hit $150bn revenue by 2020 with AR taking lions share Source: Digi-Capital
  30. 30. 29 Revenue Share Games and film will dominate VR, while a-commerce will dominate AR Source: Digi-Capital
  31. 31. 30 Startup examples Virtual Continuum AR Applications Why nowVR Investment Startup Examples
  32. 32. 31 Magic Leap Bring magic into the world Description Magic Leap is considered the most hyped AR startup today, having raised a ~$800m Series C funding in February 2016 at a valuation of $4.5b post- money, with a commercial product yet to launch. What it does Known for being secretive about its developments, we only know that Rony Abovitz (CEO Magic Leap) is working on an AR headset, which will rival existing headsets such as the Microsoft Hololens. They have also released app teasers such as this robot-fighting game and this holographic desk experience, which have contributed to the hype. Why it matters For many, VR is seen as potentially isolating and an imperfect substitution for real face-to-face conversation. AR offers the opportunity to enhance, rather than replace, the reality we all currently share. As such, its applications could be more readily understood and adopted by the broader community, beyond gaming and film. However, a high quality, scalable wearable AR technology has still not been developed, with Google class coming closest. Hence, Magic Leap’s stated intention of an AR headset is generating significant buzz. Founded 2011, Florida
  33. 33. 32 Description Perhaps the most successful Kickstarter campaign ever launched, Oculus is today’s poster child in consumer VR hardware, specifically for its GearVR and Oculus Rift headsets. Only 2 years after its launch in 2012, Facebook bought Oculus for $2b. What it does Statista forecasts 3.6m Oculus Rift and 5m Samsung GearVR headsets be sold in 2016. Apart from headsets, Oculus also creates gesture control devices such as the Oculus Touch and has an open source development kit in which the tech community can use to build apps. Why it matters Oculus has inspired a new wave of applications, from researchers to film makers to sporting enthusiasts, some of which are available at the Rift store. Its new parent company Facebook, which has 1.7bn active users, is investing heavily in VR according to Mark Zuckerberg who has grown the VR team at FB to 400. In October 2016 at the Oculus conference, Zuckerberg presented a social media VR demo where people could meet in a virtual environment as avatars to chat, play games, switch worlds and more. Oculus Making Virtual Reality a reality Oculus is Latin for ‘eye’. Touch: ‘hands in VR’ Founded 2012, California
  34. 34. 33 Snapchat Augment your selfies Description Snapchat is a popular social media app that allows users to send customisable pictures, videos and messages which self-destruct in seconds. It has 100m daily active users and its popularity is largely attributable to its AR face filters. In October 2016, Snapchat made an announcement to IPO in early 2017 at a valuation range of $30b - $40b. What it does • Lenses: AR face filters that transform your face into a dog, pumpkin, goddess etc. using facial recognition. Snapchat’s facial recognition capabilities owe to its $150m acquisition of Ukrainian startup Looksery. • Geo-filters: Special overlay that decorates the snap with where, when, temperature, speeds and can be created for special events (concerts, political events, sporting matches). • Spectacles: Snapchat has announced its first wearable ‘Spectacles’, which are sunglasses with in-built cameras to take up to 30 second videos and connected to the Snap app. Why it matters • No.1 social media for millennials according to Statista • 100m daily active users • Valuation of ~$40bn in 2016 While Facebook and others have aggressively copied Snapchat features (Instagram Stories, Messenger layout), Snapchat’s defensibility comes from the fact that it is not just a social media company, but also an AR company. Snap’s decision to release hardware ‘Spectacles’ will further solidify its position and popularity with millennials. Snapchat’s first wearable ‘Spectacles’, glasses with an in-built camera (worn by CEO Evan Spiegel) AR Dog ears filterGeolocational filter Founded 2011, California
  35. 35. 34 Jaunt VR Immerse in cinema Description Disney-backed Jaunt is making it easier for creators to produce VR content, focusing on cinematic experiences and aiming to become the ‘Netflix’ for VR. What it does • Jaunt App is a worldwide distribution channel for cinematic VR experiences across platforms and headsets. • Jaunt One Camera simultaneously records 3D stereoscopic video in all directions, capturing the material needed for VR stitching • Jaunt Cloud is a publicly available cloud-based software for cloud- based rendering and stitching Why it matters A primary barrier to mainstream adoption of VR right now is the lack of quality content. With tech such as Jaunt, anyone including musicians, sportsmen, documentary film makers will be able to create unique immersive experiences. Director Christopher Nolan says VR will be its own medium “I never get asked anymore, ‘do you think video games will kill movies?’ 10 years ago I was asked that all the time. They’re two different mediums.” Jaunt films Jaunt camera Founded 2011, California
  36. 36. @AMP_NV new_ventures@amp.com.au