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雲端 與 Big Data

Kun-Ta Chuang (莊坤達), Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
National Cheng Kung University
Preliminaries


∗ Before going into the discussion, we see videos
  talking about the future




                           2
What is Cloud Computing?


∗ Okay, we still watch a video before starting the
  discussion about ‘Cloud Computing’




                            3
What is Big Data?


∗ Sure. We also start by watching a video!




                           4
∗ Cloud Computing and Big Data are the definite
  consequence of the internet age!
∗ We start the discussion from ‘Cloud
  Computing’




                       5
Introduction to Cloud Computing


∗ What is Cloud Computing?
∗ We have different perspectives
  from different sides
  ∗ According to wikipedia, "Cloud
    computing is Internet-based
    ("Cloud") development and use
    of computer technology. "
The NIST Cloud Definition Framework
                                      Hybrid Clouds

Deployment        Private             Community
Models                                                               Public Cloud
                  Cloud                 Cloud

Service           Software as a              Platform as a            Infrastructure as a
Models            Service (SaaS)             Service (PaaS)              Service (IaaS)

                                       On Demand Self-Service
Essential             Broad Network Access                      Rapid Elasticity
Characteristics
                        Resource Pooling                      Measured Service


                            Massive Scale                 Resilient Computing

Common                      Homogeneity                 Geographic Distribution
Characteristics             Virtualization                    Service Orientation
                        Low Cost Software                     Advanced Security

                                                                                            7
What is Cloud Computing?
∗ A new business opportunity?
  ∗ Is it far beyond distributed/grid/cluster computing?
  ∗ Or, just a new term?
∗ Is it a new Holy Grail?
                                       I don’t understand what we would do
  ∗ Web 3.0, new web-scale problem?    differently in the light of cloud computing
     ∗ Social, Location, Mobile        other than changing the wording of some of
                                       our ads
                                                            Oracle’s CEO Larry Ellison
New philosophy?
What we do in the past
In the Cloud Era
We don’t need to work here
The Rise of a New Era in IT


                                           Cloud
                                           Platform as a Service
                          Web
                          Application Servers

          PC / Client-Server
          Unix Services

Mainframe
COBOL


        Each new era in computing brings a new application platform:
        for the Cloud era it is “PaaS”
Money?




  13
Where can we get money?




                From Gartner (March, 2009)
It is a new Era, but
          Is it a new business model?
∗ Let’s turn to review the history of the IC
  industry
  ∗ Do you think why Fabless Design Houses
    are so strong in the past 10+ years?
Systems                          Design                            Manufacturing
           Saber
                   SysStudio


                     VMM
HW/SW         Magellan
                       SysVerilog Formality      DC Ultra
                                                               Test
                        VIP                          IC
                               VCS NTB
             Virtual                              Compiler
            Platform                                    Star RCXT
 Connect.
                  DesignWare
    IP
         Analog IP
          (Phys)
                                  CHIP                    Power
                                                                Hercules          CATS
                                                                                           Sigma C
                                                                        Proteus
                                                                                   SiVL
                                                    PrimeTime                                FE TCAD
                               NanoSim
                                                         PrimeYield
                                         HSIM                                               BE TCAD

                                                HSPICE
                                                                           DFM                 Manuf.
                                                                                               TCAD
                                                                                   Yield        Test
                                                            Libraries              Mgmt        Chips
Today: Global IC Market
Systems $1.26T                                                                                                 Front-End Manufacturing
                                                                                         EDA                   $21.9B
Computers
Communications
                                                                                                     Masks*
                                                                                       $4.0 B
Consumer                                                                                             $3.3B
Industrial                                                                                                     Lithography/Mask Making
                                                                                                               CMP equipment
Military…                                                                                                      Ion Implanters
                                                                                                               Deposition
Embedded SW $2.5B                                                                                              Etching and Cleaning
                                                                                                     Silicon   Other
                                                                                                     Wafers
                                                                                                     $11.4B    Back-End Manufacturing
IP $1.4B
                                                                                                               $6.6B
                                                                                                               Assembly Equipment
                                                                                                                 Assembly Inspect.
Semiconductors $269.9B                                                                                           Dicing
                                                                                                                 Bonding
Micros, DSP                                                                                                      Packaging
Memory                                                                                                           Int. Assembly Sys
ASIC, ASSP                                                                                   Chips             Total Test
Analog
Discrete                                                                                                       Foundry Wafers $20.9B

2008 Data (*2006)
Source: VLSI Research, Gartner, IC Insights, SEMI, Information Network, Synopsys Estimates
A mature business
A mature business
Cloud -- Not Just a New Term?


∗ Is ‘Cloud Computing’ far beyond distributed/grid/cluster
  computing?
∗ Is it also mature?
∗ 鑑古知今
Do we have TSMC and Synopsys in
     the Cloud IT industry?
∗ Amazon AWS Marketplace




                       21
Look back


∗ We have TSMC and Synopsys, but we still need ASML,
  National Instruments
∗ VMWARE




           23
Cloud Hierarchy


∗ IaaS
  ∗ Infrastrature
∗ PaaS
  ∗ Platform
∗ SaaS
  ∗ Software
Technology Hierarchy
User Level                          應用
                     Social Computing, Enterprise, ISV,…

 User-Level                     程式語言
 Middleware
                    Web 2.0 介面, Mashups, Workflows, …


                                    控制
                     Qos Neqotiation, Ddmission Control,
 Core Middleware    Pricing, SLA Management, Metering…


                                 虛擬化
                    VM, VM management and Deployment



System Level
                            25
Deployment models

                                           Public cloud
                                       Community cloud
                                          Hybrid cloud
                                          Private cloud




We talk about: Public
Cloud - A cloud is
available in pay-as-
you-go to the general
public



                           26
Utility Computing -- Pay as you go


∗ Hours purchased via cloud    ∗ Cloud computing offers
  computing can be               economic benefits of
  distributed non-uniformly      elasticity and
  in time                        transference of risk


      Utility Computing – the service being sold in
      public cloud

      Cloud Services = SaaS + Utility Computing
The spirit of ‘Pay as you go’

∗ No longer require the Large Capital
∗ Don’t concerned about Over-Provisioning or Under-
  Provisioning for prediction
  ∗ 選課系統
  ∗ Startup companies
∗ Companies with large batch-oriented tasks can be finish quickly
∗ More elasticity of resources
Example(Provision for peak load)
最高峰 :500servers
最低峰 :100servers
雲端需要24*300=7200(小時*伺服器)
傳統模式下需要500*24=12000(小時*伺服器)雲
端可以節省約1.7倍的cost!!!
Example(Under-provision)
Active user – People use the site regularly
Defector – People abandon the sites

Suppose 10% of active user become defector who
receive poor service due to under-provision
Cloud can help
∗ The appearance of infinite computing resource is available
  to overcome load surges
∗ The elimination of an up-front commitment by cloud users
∗ The ability to pay for use of computing resources on a short
  term
∗ Remember: 要喝牛奶,你不必買頭牛




                              31
Famous new Companies
∗   30,000,000 users
∗   Based on Amazon AWS
∗   Django web framework
∗   PostgreSQL database
∗   Memory cache by Redis
∗   Merged by Facebook




        Quoted from
        http://instagram-engineering.tumblr.com/post/13649370142/what-
        powers-instagram-hundreds-of-instances-dozens-of
Famous new Companies
∗ Also based on Amazon AWS
Cloud Cost
∗ 在矽谷每個月租server x元, 頻寬x元
  在台灣每個月租server 0.5~1x元,頻寬30~40x元!!
                         --- 翟本喬

∗ 在美國租伺服器,每台每月169~229美元,可是流量超
  出我的預期…最後我的信用卡額度每個月3萬美金(約
  90萬台幣)才夠用       --- 陳士駿

∗ 在台灣會更慘,每個月90萬美金(2700萬台幣)


                   34
Price


∗ Is Cloud-Service really cheaper??
  ∗ Depend on your age/finance situations, you rent or buy
    houses
General Obstacles and Opportunities in
               Clouds
Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities
      for Cloud Computing
Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for
         Cloud Computing


 ∗ 1.Availability/Business Continuity

 ∗ Q: User/Organization worry about whether utility
   computing services will have adequate availability or
   company may even go out of business

 ∗ A:Multiple and different cloud computing providers
Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for
         Cloud Computing


 ∗ 2.Data Lock-In

 ∗ Q:The Storage API for cloud computing are still
   essentially proprietary, cannot easily extract by
   customers

 ∗ A: Standardize APIs ;Compatible SW to enable Surge of
   Hybird of Cloud Computing
Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for
         Cloud Computing

 ∗ 3.Data Confidentiality/Auditability

 ∗ Q: Cloud user face security threats both from outsides and insides
   the cloud
    Outside : any third-party , cloud vender
    Inside : cloud user

 ∗ A: cloud user : virtualization
 ∗    cloud vender : user-level encryption
 ∗    any third-party : firewall
Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for
         Cloud Computing


 ∗ 4.Data Transfer Bottlenecks

 ∗ Q : The cost of data transfer is high and transfer rate
 ∗ is slow because data is in surprising size

 ∗ A: ship disks
Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for
         Cloud Computing


 ∗ 7.Bugs in large scale distributed systems

 ∗ Q:Bugs can’t appear in smaller configuration ,but appear
   in production data center

 ∗ A:Use distributed VMs
Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for
         Cloud Computing


 ∗ 10.Software Licensing

 ∗ Q : Cloud provisions pay more money

 ∗ A : Open source or pay-for-use license
   ∗ Why open source?? Cost issues in startup teams
Question?
Talking about ‘Big Data’




           45
New Data Source
∗ The number of smart phone will exceed 1 billion in 2014, as
  expected
∗ The number of app download
     is more than 10 billion




Quoted from
http://android-
developers.blogspot.com/search/label/Android%20Market
Web-Scale Problems
  It is BIG DATA!

         ∗ Characteristics:
           ∗ Definitely data-intensive
           ∗ May also be processing
             intensive
         ∗ Examples:
           ∗ Crawling, indexing,
             searching, mining the Web
           ∗ Social Network
           ∗ Web 3.0 applications
∗   In 2007 the average was 5,000 tweets per day
∗   In 2008 that had grown to 300,000
∗   In 2009 tweets per day averaged 2.5 million
∗   In 2010 that number was 35 million tweets per day
∗   In the month of March 2011 alone, 140 million tweets are
    being sent on average per day.
                    http://www.marketinggum.com/twitter-statistics-2011-updated-stats/

                                        49
∗ Twitter is the top 8 website




Quoted from http://www.alexa.com/topsites   50
Web-Scale Problems
              It is BIG DATA!
                                http://archive.org/index.php
∗   Wayback Machine has 2 PB + 20 TB/month (2006)
∗   Google processes 20 PB a day (2008)
∗   “all words ever spoken by human beings” ~ 5 EB
∗   NOAA has ~1 PB climate data (2007)
∗   CERN’s LHC will generate 15 PB a year (2008)

                                      640K ought to be
                                      enough for anybody.




                           51
Quoted from “Nosql big data Hadoop with microsoft”   52
What is the scale of BigData?


∗ We can capture the
  scale of 300GB,
  since we have a
  hard disk more than
  the size nowaday




                        53
What is the scale of BigData?




Quoted from “Nosql big data Hadoop with microsoft”   54
What is the scale of BigData?




              55
Quoted from “big data the next frontier for   56
innovation competition and productivity”
Quoted from “big data the next frontier for   57
innovation competition and productivity”
For Big Data Analytics


∗ They cannot be solved by a set of machines
  ∗ Many machines?
  ∗ Distributed/grid/cluster computing?
∗ We need huge machines!
  ∗ Less-communication between computers
  ∗ Less-synchronization systems
Big Data Initiative in US




            60
Big Data is the trend
  Open Its Power!




          61
Databases in
the cloud era
Relational Database Performance
64
65
Third-party Cloud Services


∗ Play as a web-services to provide Relation Database
  functionalities
∗ Solve (2) Data Lock-In Issues
Snapshot of database.com
Snapshot of database.com
Traditional Database model is no
        longer workable!




               69
70
They are the future


∗ We have data and Computing Everywhere!
  ∗ New terms: M2M, Internet of Things
∗ The IT industry is growing but changing

∗ Software and Idea are more valuable than Hardware and
  Labor

∗ Small/Diverse/Open-Source Software is more beneficial

                              71
They are the future

∗ Cross-discipline will be the best way to evolve with the
  trend

∗ Good to touch Data-Driven Sciences
  ∗ Data Mining

∗ Since Software is the king, welcome to join us
  ∗ 9:00~12:00 Thursday
  ∗ 4204@CSIE Building
  ∗ Many Talks about software or big data processing from
    experts in software industries such as Google, Yahoo!,
    Synopsys, Trend Micro

                               72
Q&A


∗ Taiwan Ready?
  ∗ Our Network environment?
  ∗ Our Software environment?
  ∗ Our Creation?

∗ No Matter you like it or not, the surge is coming

∗ Thinking Big for the new Opportunities!
                            73

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雲端與Big data

  • 1. 雲端 與 Big Data Kun-Ta Chuang (莊坤達), Ph.D. Assistant Professor National Cheng Kung University
  • 2. Preliminaries ∗ Before going into the discussion, we see videos talking about the future 2
  • 3. What is Cloud Computing? ∗ Okay, we still watch a video before starting the discussion about ‘Cloud Computing’ 3
  • 4. What is Big Data? ∗ Sure. We also start by watching a video! 4
  • 5. ∗ Cloud Computing and Big Data are the definite consequence of the internet age! ∗ We start the discussion from ‘Cloud Computing’ 5
  • 6. Introduction to Cloud Computing ∗ What is Cloud Computing? ∗ We have different perspectives from different sides ∗ According to wikipedia, "Cloud computing is Internet-based ("Cloud") development and use of computer technology. "
  • 7. The NIST Cloud Definition Framework Hybrid Clouds Deployment Private Community Models Public Cloud Cloud Cloud Service Software as a Platform as a Infrastructure as a Models Service (SaaS) Service (PaaS) Service (IaaS) On Demand Self-Service Essential Broad Network Access Rapid Elasticity Characteristics Resource Pooling Measured Service Massive Scale Resilient Computing Common Homogeneity Geographic Distribution Characteristics Virtualization Service Orientation Low Cost Software Advanced Security 7
  • 8. What is Cloud Computing? ∗ A new business opportunity? ∗ Is it far beyond distributed/grid/cluster computing? ∗ Or, just a new term? ∗ Is it a new Holy Grail? I don’t understand what we would do ∗ Web 3.0, new web-scale problem? differently in the light of cloud computing ∗ Social, Location, Mobile other than changing the wording of some of our ads Oracle’s CEO Larry Ellison
  • 9. New philosophy? What we do in the past
  • 11. We don’t need to work here
  • 12. The Rise of a New Era in IT Cloud Platform as a Service Web Application Servers PC / Client-Server Unix Services Mainframe COBOL Each new era in computing brings a new application platform: for the Cloud era it is “PaaS”
  • 14. Where can we get money? From Gartner (March, 2009)
  • 15. It is a new Era, but Is it a new business model? ∗ Let’s turn to review the history of the IC industry ∗ Do you think why Fabless Design Houses are so strong in the past 10+ years?
  • 16. Systems Design Manufacturing Saber SysStudio VMM HW/SW Magellan SysVerilog Formality DC Ultra Test VIP IC VCS NTB Virtual Compiler Platform Star RCXT Connect. DesignWare IP Analog IP (Phys) CHIP Power Hercules CATS Sigma C Proteus SiVL PrimeTime FE TCAD NanoSim PrimeYield HSIM BE TCAD HSPICE DFM Manuf. TCAD Yield Test Libraries Mgmt Chips
  • 17. Today: Global IC Market Systems $1.26T Front-End Manufacturing EDA $21.9B Computers Communications Masks* $4.0 B Consumer $3.3B Industrial Lithography/Mask Making CMP equipment Military… Ion Implanters Deposition Embedded SW $2.5B Etching and Cleaning Silicon Other Wafers $11.4B Back-End Manufacturing IP $1.4B $6.6B Assembly Equipment Assembly Inspect. Semiconductors $269.9B Dicing Bonding Micros, DSP Packaging Memory Int. Assembly Sys ASIC, ASSP Chips Total Test Analog Discrete Foundry Wafers $20.9B 2008 Data (*2006) Source: VLSI Research, Gartner, IC Insights, SEMI, Information Network, Synopsys Estimates
  • 20. Cloud -- Not Just a New Term? ∗ Is ‘Cloud Computing’ far beyond distributed/grid/cluster computing? ∗ Is it also mature? ∗ 鑑古知今
  • 21. Do we have TSMC and Synopsys in the Cloud IT industry? ∗ Amazon AWS Marketplace 21
  • 22. Look back ∗ We have TSMC and Synopsys, but we still need ASML, National Instruments
  • 24. Cloud Hierarchy ∗ IaaS ∗ Infrastrature ∗ PaaS ∗ Platform ∗ SaaS ∗ Software
  • 25. Technology Hierarchy User Level 應用 Social Computing, Enterprise, ISV,… User-Level 程式語言 Middleware Web 2.0 介面, Mashups, Workflows, … 控制 Qos Neqotiation, Ddmission Control, Core Middleware Pricing, SLA Management, Metering… 虛擬化 VM, VM management and Deployment System Level 25
  • 26. Deployment models Public cloud Community cloud Hybrid cloud Private cloud We talk about: Public Cloud - A cloud is available in pay-as- you-go to the general public 26
  • 27. Utility Computing -- Pay as you go ∗ Hours purchased via cloud ∗ Cloud computing offers computing can be economic benefits of distributed non-uniformly elasticity and in time transference of risk Utility Computing – the service being sold in public cloud Cloud Services = SaaS + Utility Computing
  • 28. The spirit of ‘Pay as you go’ ∗ No longer require the Large Capital ∗ Don’t concerned about Over-Provisioning or Under- Provisioning for prediction ∗ 選課系統 ∗ Startup companies ∗ Companies with large batch-oriented tasks can be finish quickly ∗ More elasticity of resources
  • 29. Example(Provision for peak load) 最高峰 :500servers 最低峰 :100servers 雲端需要24*300=7200(小時*伺服器) 傳統模式下需要500*24=12000(小時*伺服器)雲 端可以節省約1.7倍的cost!!!
  • 30. Example(Under-provision) Active user – People use the site regularly Defector – People abandon the sites Suppose 10% of active user become defector who receive poor service due to under-provision
  • 31. Cloud can help ∗ The appearance of infinite computing resource is available to overcome load surges ∗ The elimination of an up-front commitment by cloud users ∗ The ability to pay for use of computing resources on a short term ∗ Remember: 要喝牛奶,你不必買頭牛 31
  • 32. Famous new Companies ∗ 30,000,000 users ∗ Based on Amazon AWS ∗ Django web framework ∗ PostgreSQL database ∗ Memory cache by Redis ∗ Merged by Facebook Quoted from http://instagram-engineering.tumblr.com/post/13649370142/what- powers-instagram-hundreds-of-instances-dozens-of
  • 33. Famous new Companies ∗ Also based on Amazon AWS
  • 34. Cloud Cost ∗ 在矽谷每個月租server x元, 頻寬x元 在台灣每個月租server 0.5~1x元,頻寬30~40x元!! --- 翟本喬 ∗ 在美國租伺服器,每台每月169~229美元,可是流量超 出我的預期…最後我的信用卡額度每個月3萬美金(約 90萬台幣)才夠用 --- 陳士駿 ∗ 在台灣會更慘,每個月90萬美金(2700萬台幣) 34
  • 35. Price ∗ Is Cloud-Service really cheaper?? ∗ Depend on your age/finance situations, you rent or buy houses
  • 36. General Obstacles and Opportunities in Clouds
  • 37. Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for Cloud Computing
  • 38. Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for Cloud Computing ∗ 1.Availability/Business Continuity ∗ Q: User/Organization worry about whether utility computing services will have adequate availability or company may even go out of business ∗ A:Multiple and different cloud computing providers
  • 39. Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for Cloud Computing ∗ 2.Data Lock-In ∗ Q:The Storage API for cloud computing are still essentially proprietary, cannot easily extract by customers ∗ A: Standardize APIs ;Compatible SW to enable Surge of Hybird of Cloud Computing
  • 40. Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for Cloud Computing ∗ 3.Data Confidentiality/Auditability ∗ Q: Cloud user face security threats both from outsides and insides the cloud Outside : any third-party , cloud vender Inside : cloud user ∗ A: cloud user : virtualization ∗ cloud vender : user-level encryption ∗ any third-party : firewall
  • 41. Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for Cloud Computing ∗ 4.Data Transfer Bottlenecks ∗ Q : The cost of data transfer is high and transfer rate ∗ is slow because data is in surprising size ∗ A: ship disks
  • 42. Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for Cloud Computing ∗ 7.Bugs in large scale distributed systems ∗ Q:Bugs can’t appear in smaller configuration ,but appear in production data center ∗ A:Use distributed VMs
  • 43. Top 10 Obstacles and Opportunities for Cloud Computing ∗ 10.Software Licensing ∗ Q : Cloud provisions pay more money ∗ A : Open source or pay-for-use license ∗ Why open source?? Cost issues in startup teams
  • 45. Talking about ‘Big Data’ 45
  • 46. New Data Source ∗ The number of smart phone will exceed 1 billion in 2014, as expected
  • 47. ∗ The number of app download is more than 10 billion Quoted from http://android- developers.blogspot.com/search/label/Android%20Market
  • 48. Web-Scale Problems It is BIG DATA! ∗ Characteristics: ∗ Definitely data-intensive ∗ May also be processing intensive ∗ Examples: ∗ Crawling, indexing, searching, mining the Web ∗ Social Network ∗ Web 3.0 applications
  • 49. In 2007 the average was 5,000 tweets per day ∗ In 2008 that had grown to 300,000 ∗ In 2009 tweets per day averaged 2.5 million ∗ In 2010 that number was 35 million tweets per day ∗ In the month of March 2011 alone, 140 million tweets are being sent on average per day. http://www.marketinggum.com/twitter-statistics-2011-updated-stats/ 49
  • 50. ∗ Twitter is the top 8 website Quoted from http://www.alexa.com/topsites 50
  • 51. Web-Scale Problems It is BIG DATA! http://archive.org/index.php ∗ Wayback Machine has 2 PB + 20 TB/month (2006) ∗ Google processes 20 PB a day (2008) ∗ “all words ever spoken by human beings” ~ 5 EB ∗ NOAA has ~1 PB climate data (2007) ∗ CERN’s LHC will generate 15 PB a year (2008) 640K ought to be enough for anybody. 51
  • 52. Quoted from “Nosql big data Hadoop with microsoft” 52
  • 53. What is the scale of BigData? ∗ We can capture the scale of 300GB, since we have a hard disk more than the size nowaday 53
  • 54. What is the scale of BigData? Quoted from “Nosql big data Hadoop with microsoft” 54
  • 55. What is the scale of BigData? 55
  • 56. Quoted from “big data the next frontier for 56 innovation competition and productivity”
  • 57. Quoted from “big data the next frontier for 57 innovation competition and productivity”
  • 58. For Big Data Analytics ∗ They cannot be solved by a set of machines ∗ Many machines? ∗ Distributed/grid/cluster computing? ∗ We need huge machines! ∗ Less-communication between computers ∗ Less-synchronization systems
  • 59.
  • 61. Big Data is the trend Open Its Power! 61
  • 64. 64
  • 65. 65
  • 66. Third-party Cloud Services ∗ Play as a web-services to provide Relation Database functionalities ∗ Solve (2) Data Lock-In Issues
  • 69. Traditional Database model is no longer workable! 69
  • 70. 70
  • 71. They are the future ∗ We have data and Computing Everywhere! ∗ New terms: M2M, Internet of Things ∗ The IT industry is growing but changing ∗ Software and Idea are more valuable than Hardware and Labor ∗ Small/Diverse/Open-Source Software is more beneficial 71
  • 72. They are the future ∗ Cross-discipline will be the best way to evolve with the trend ∗ Good to touch Data-Driven Sciences ∗ Data Mining ∗ Since Software is the king, welcome to join us ∗ 9:00~12:00 Thursday ∗ 4204@CSIE Building ∗ Many Talks about software or big data processing from experts in software industries such as Google, Yahoo!, Synopsys, Trend Micro 72
  • 73. Q&A ∗ Taiwan Ready? ∗ Our Network environment? ∗ Our Software environment? ∗ Our Creation? ∗ No Matter you like it or not, the surge is coming ∗ Thinking Big for the new Opportunities! 73