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Actuarial Task
Fundamentals of Actuarial Practice: Interim AssessmentQuestionsInterim Assessment
Questions OverviewAssessment StructureThis assessment comprises 16 questions you are
to answer. All questions are listed in thisdocument. Questions are grouped into the
following sections:• Questions 1-6 relate to a group term life insurance scenario.•
Questions 7-11 relate to an individual disability insurance scenario.• Questions 12-14
relate to an ERM scenario.• Questions 15-16 are independent of each other and are not
linked to a shared scenario.Your answers to the questions are to be contained in one
Microsoft Word document that you willsubmit when completed with the Interim
Assessment. You must use the template documentIA_template.doc that you downloaded
when obtaining this document and the spreadsheets. Youwill also submit spreadsheets
containing the work you complete for the first scenario. (Furtherinformation about the
process for completing the Interim Assessment can be found by clicking theInterim
Assessment FAQ or Interim Assessment Instructions links on the Download
Page.)Important NotesAll information you want to convey to graders must be in your
Microsoft Word document. Youranswers should be presented with an 11-point (minimum)
font and single-spaced (with doublespacing between paragraphs).You should not assume
that graders will examine the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet you upload.While graders will
have access to your Excel file, they will only review your spreadsheet if theywould like to
check your work.Considerations in Preparing Your Answers For the most part, your
answers are not expected to be in memo form and do not need to be instructured
paragraphs. It is acceptable to use outlines and lists where you believe it isappropriate.
However, if the question calls for you to write a memo or document that is intendedfor an
audience other than the grader, then the communication should be appropriate for
thataudience.Your goal should be to answer each question completely and appropriately.
You shouldeffectively and efficiently convey the information that answers each question.
Your answersshould average approximately one page (single-spaced).Your name should not
appear anywhere in your submission or in any way identify you as theauthor. If you believe
you should refer to yourself in the context of an answer, use FAPCandidate instead of your
actual name.Questions 1– 6ScenarioYou work for Sensible Insurance Company, a mid-sized
insurance company whose core productis group term life. Sensible aims to grow and is
trying to gain Mammoth Mart as a client.Mammoth Mart is a large employer in the U.S., and
its addition will almost double the number ofinsured lives Sensible covers.Sensible operates
in all states in the U.S., but focuses on small to medium sized businessesTHIS MATERIAL IS
STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013
Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 1 of 10concentrated in the
Eastern U.S. Its current book of business has an average occupation mix of20% blue-
collar/80% white-collar. The average case size is 81 lives with no single groupcomprising
more than 2% of the insured lives.The CFO of Sensible is concerned that it may be growing
too fast and has asked you to analyzethe effect of adding Mammoth Mart as a client. Your
student actuary has sent you the followinginformation about Mammoth Mart:1. It has
offices nationwide with over 500,000 employees.2. Approximately 60% of the employees
are blue-collar, with the remainder being white-collar.3. As of today, all of its locations are
in the U.S., but it is considering opening some Canadianlocations in the next year or two.4. It
is using a broker to negotiate prices and benefits with insurers.Mammoth Mart wants a
simple plan for its employees– all of them will be covered, and the faceamount will equal the
employee’s annual salary. However, instead of a typical one-year rateguarantee contract
with premiums paid monthly, Mammoth Mart would like a three-year rateguarantee on the
premium. It will pay the entire three years’ premium up-front based on its
currentworkforce and salaries, with monthly adjustments based on increases or decreases
to thecovered salary amount.Ideally, for such a large group we would want to use Mammoth
Mart’s own experience to developa rate, but this is the first time it has sought life insurance
coverage. Therefore Sensible’s ratemanual needs to be used.A spreadsheet, which can be
downloaded by clicking the Excel File Group Term link on theDownload Page, has been
prepared to assist you with the questions. Further description of thespreadsheet will be
provided in the questions.Question 1(A) Using the existing ratemaking information
provided in ,determine the monthly premium per $1000 of covered salary for Mammoth
Mart. Show your workin your answer.(B) Due to Mammoth Mart’s request for an unusual
payment arrangement you decide a monthlycash flow model should be built to better
understand the financial implications. Your studentactuary provides a model that you agree
is sufficient for your immediate needs, located in .You notice that using the assumed
premium from (1A), the profit is greater than 3% of the claims.Briefly explain why this is
and recommend a premium that matches the profit goal.Premiums for both (A) and (B)
(monthly cost / $1000 covered payroll) should be rounded to thenearest tenth of a cent.For
Questions 2-5, if a premium is needed in your calculations use the premium from
1(B).Question 2What are the key external factors that Sensible should consider when
determining whether or notto pursue the Mammoth Mart account? How do these factors
apply to this specific situation?Question 3 Up until this point management has wanted you
to use a 3.0% investment income rate. However,because investment income plays an
important role in the case of Mammoth Mart you want toexplore it in more depth. Using the
historic data for different asset classes located in recommend an investment strategy and
investment income rateassumption.Question 4THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY
CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of
Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 2 of 10Mammoth Mart has been
considering purchasing one of its rivals, Pacific Pro Shopper, andcompany officials are
estimating the purchase would be effective at the start of month 30 in thecurrent contract.
This purchase would result in an additional $5B of monthly payroll covered foreach of the
remaining 7 months. Assume that the premium rate cannot be renegotiated for
theadditional payroll.Using the monthly cash flow model located in , briefly describe
theimpact the purchase would have on the premium that is collected by Sensible and the
endingcash position compared to the original assumptions. As a baseline scenario, assume
that theaverage claims rate remains level throughout the contract period.Question 5Before
you give your final recommendation to the CFO regarding the Mammoth Mart contract,you
decide it would be best to perform some sensitivity testing. Discuss the assumptions that
youshould consider when performing a sensitivity analysis. Explain why each of these
assumptions isimportant to analyze. Do not perform the sensitivity analysis.Question
6Three years have passed and you have been asked to evaluate the Mammoth Mart
deal.Mammoth Mart has expressed interest in a renewal quote.Mammoth Mart’s experience
has been summarized by your actuarial student in . Note that the Canadian expansion has
not yet occurred and talks with PacificPro Shopper have been delayed past the 30-month
mark initially anticipated. Actual expenses forSensible have been equal to those in the
original assumptions.(A) Evaluate Mammoth Mart’s results and profitability for Sensible.
Are there any concerns aboutthe results? Briefly discuss how well the rate guarantee
worked for Sensible.(B) In a memo written to an actuarial student who will be working with
this contract going forwardsummarize your approach to the renewal using the control cycle
as a framework. Include all fivecomponents of the control cycle as they relate specifically to
this situation (Professionalism,External Forces, Define the Problem, Design the Solution,
and Monitor the Results) as well as keyrenewal rating considerations, recommendations, or
concerns you have.Note: Be sure to save your spreadsheet calculations showing your work
for the group termscenario. You will be prompted to upload this saved spreadsheet when
you have completed theInterim Assessment.Questions 7– 11ScenarioYour company,
Awesome Benefits Company, sells the following individual disability insuranceproduct.•
Level annual premiums are paid while healthy and under age 65. Premium rates
areguaranteed and premiums are due at the beginning of the year• Upon disability, a level
monthly benefit is paid while the policyholder is unable to work (astatus that is defined in
the policy)• Benefit payments commence after a 90 day waiting period (also called an
eliminationperiod)• Benefit payments are 60% of salary and cease when the policyholder
turns age 65, dies,or recovers• The target market is highly paid professionals (such as
doctors and lawyers) andcorporate executives.• The product is sold through insurance
agents.You have assigned your actuarial student, Joe, to build a pricing model. Joe has built
the model inTHIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY
OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 3
of 10AssetAnnual*Coupon RateMaturityPrice / FaceT-bill N/A 1 Year 990 / 1000T-Note
2.9% 10 Year 1000 / 1000Corporate Bond 3.2% 10 Year 1000 / 1000Corporate Bond 4.1%
30 Year 1000 / 1000the Excel spreadsheet . Joe has made all of the baselineassumptions
and selected initial premiums. The per-unit premium for each policy is set equal tothe issue
age – for example, a 42-year old with a $100,000 salary would pay $4,200 annuallywhile a
30-year old with a $50,000 salary would pay $1,500 annually. Joe thinks this pricingscheme
will help with marketing the product, because each year a customer delays buying
thispolicy will lead to an increase in the level premium.Given the recent economic volatility,
Awesome Benefits Company has a conservative investmentstrategy. The investment
strategy has three priorities; first it is required to hold at least a certainpercent of its
portfolio in liquid, short-term assets. The value can be found on the Documentationtab of
the spreadsheet . Next, it wants to duration match assetsand liabilities. Finally, it prefers to
invest in United States government securities.Awesome Benefit Company uses profit as a
percent of premium as its primary profit measure.Using a discount rate of 5%, the required
present value of distributable earnings as a percentageof premium is 10%. Management
also desires an IRR greater than 10%.For this assessment, you can ignore the claims paying
ability of the company and any other plandesign features not mentioned in this assessment.
You do not have to audit the model.Question 7Now that the pricing model is built in ,
Awesome BenefitCompany’s investment managers have asked you what type of assets
should be purchased toback reserves and capital. You have been asked to assess and
comment on its investmentstrategy.(A) Using an interest rate of 5.0%, and the cash flows in
the Model Income Statement tab,calculate the modified duration using paid claims as the
liability cash flows.(B) Given the available assets below, build an asset portfolio that best
meets the requirementsand preferences of the company’s investment strategy. Discuss the
characteristics andimplications of the choice of assets.* Assume coupons are paid once per
year, at the end of the year(C) Senior management has determined that Awesome Benefit
Company’s investment strategyshould be even more conservative. You are now required to
invest 100% of assets in governmentsecurities. Build a second asset portfolio, which is as
close to duration matched as possible.Discuss the characteristics and implications of the
choice of assets and compare it to the firstportfolio.Question 8You need to review Joe’s
pricing work (recall though that you do not have to audit the model).Use the model to run
the entire population.(A) Using Joe’s initial assumptions in the cell info tab, discuss the
results of the pricing model inlight of the desired profit measures. Recommend changes to
the premium schedule if necessary.(B) Assuming Joe’s premiums are maintained, assess
Joe’s premium selection in light of themodel results by age and gender, which are
summarized on the Output Summary tab of . Is setting the per-unit premium proportional to
the issue ageTHIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY
OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 4
of 10appropriate? Justify your answer. Recommend changes if necessary.(C) All of Joe’s
pricing work has focused on one deterministic scenario. Assuming Joe’s premiumsare
maintained, perform a sensitivity analysis by changing key assumptions in the cell info
taband re-running the entire model. Key assumptions to include in the analysis are
incidence,maintenance expenses, and interest rates. Which assumptions are most/least
critical?Question 9The new CFO doesn’t understand regulatory reserves and gross premium
reserves. You createdthe following graph of regulatory reserves and gross premiums
reserves by duration for the IDIprojection.Reserve ProjectionGPVTotal
RegulatoryReservesDuration(A) Explain the difference between these two reserves,
including the how those differencesproduce this pattern of reserves by duration.(B) Using
the model output, calculate the gross premium reserve at the end of year 1 using adiscount
rate of 5% and the cash flows in the Model Income Statement tab.(C) Awesome Benefit
Company’s current regulatory reserves are rules-based. Discuss thedifferences when
compared to a Principles-based valuation.Question 10In response to perceived abuse of
disability income benefits by insureds, Awesome BenefitCompany decides to offer a new
product with a more restrictive definition of disability. This newdefinition of disability
requires policyholders to be more severely disabled in order to qualify forbenefits.Briefly
describe the general impact on claim costs / claim administration expenses, litigation
costs,and reinsurance needs. Similarly, briefly list what data you would seek to quantify
those effects.Note: You will not upload the spreadsheet you used for this scenario.Question
11Awesome Benefits Company has completed the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis
(FMEA)process. For the individual benefit product the subject matter experts (SME) have
identified theassumptions for each of the 5 scenarios shown below and the likelihood of the
scenariooccurring.THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO
ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions |
Page 5 of 10Risk Scenario Likelihood(%)Credible worst-case 5Pessimistic 15Baseline
60Optimistic 15Credible best-case 5The assumptions for the 5 scenarios were run through
the model. After completing the step ofestimating the quantitative impacts, the SME’s were
concerned about the results from themoderately pessimistic and credible worst-case
scenarios. Reinsurance was suggested as a riskmitigation strategy. The ERM team wanted to
include the option of reinsurance prior to presentingresults to senior management. An offer
for reinsurance was received. The model was adjusted forreinsurance and re-run.Risk
Scenario No Reinsurance ReinsuranceCredible best-case 1 6Optimistic 2 7Baseline 3
8Pessimistic 4 9Credible worst-case 5 10The model income statements have been provided
to you in to preparefor the senior management report. The table above indicates the
scenario in the spreadsheet forthe described situation. Generate an executive summary of
the data that is easy to understandand present. Make a recommendation as to whether the
reinsurance offer should be chosen.Justify your recommendation.Note: You will not upload
the spreadsheet used with this question.Questions 12-14ScenarioWarren Peace (WP)
winery is a family-owned company which manufactures, markets, anddistributes fine wine.
The winery is located on a 60 acre vineyard in Northern California, USAwhich is where WP
grows grapes and manufactures its products. WP has a history and heritageof fine
winemaking for over 30 years.WP sells several types of wine produced from its own locally
grown grapes. Generally, WPproduces two vintages of wine, a high quality vintage wine
which sells at a premium, and a lowerquality brand name wine. From time to time, WP
purchases grapes from other vineyards inNorthern California and imports grapes from
France, Italy, Argentina, and Canada.The current Chief Executive Officer is Warren Peace III
and the Board of Directors consists of 5members of the Peace family. The company has 10
total permanent employees.WP’s company objectives include:• Produce quality wines at a
reasonable price• Conduct business with integrity and honesty• Have a passion for wine•
Maximize company value through increasing profit marginsDistributable profits provided
by WP over the past few years have ranged from $0 to $1,000,000.As a result of this
volatility, WP is in the process of adjusting the company objectives to includean increased
risk management focus. To help with this task, WP has hired Al Nino to develop arisk
management framework for WP. You are part of a team of actuarial students working for
Al.THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER
PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 6 of
10Question 12Warren Peace has asked your team to make a presentation to the Board of
Directors to describethe ERM process. You will hand out a summary of the benefits of ERM.
Al has asked you to draftthe handout and to include the following:• Why should WP
implement an ERM process?• What are the benefits to WP’s major stakeholders (The Peace
family, WP’s otheremployees, wholesale distributors, business partners, creditors, and
customers)?• Who will be responsible for the ERM process?• How will a Corporate Value
ERM framework assist in WP’s business decision makingprocess?• How will an ERM
framework address the Board’s concerns?The handout should be written in bullet point
form summarizing the main ideas of yourpresentation.Question 13Warren has asked Al to
recommend an ERM framework for WP winery. One of your fellowactuarial students has
drafted the following memo and has asked you to review it before sendingit to Al. Suggest
five ways to improve the document.Do not include any grammar, style or punctuation
improvements.Do not submit an entire revision of the document; rather just provide a
description of thesuggested improvements.TO: Warren Peace IIIFROM: Al Nino, Risk
ConsultantRE: WP Winery Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) FrameworkIntroductionThis
memo will lay out considerations for the development of an enterprise risk
managementstrategy for Warren Peace Winery (WP).The risk management philosophy of
WP should:• Identify and successfully manage risks that present good risk/reward
opportunities• Balance demands of various stakeholders• Encourage a risk management
culture throughout the company• Quantify risks and strictly manage to an indentified risk
toleranceAn understanding of enterprise risk management should be embedded throughout
theorganization. The CEO is ultimately responsible for the key risks, but responsibilities will
bedelegated to the Chief Risk Officer (CRO) and the ERM committee.• CRO: responsible for
providing the CEO with a written risk report on a quarterly basis,which includes a status
report on risk tolerances and risk appetite. Currently there is noCRO on staff at WP.• ERM
Committee, which is a subset of the work force and includes equal representationfrom
manufacturing, marketing, and distribution. This committee is responsible forreviewing and
recommending risk tolerance and risk appetite.Risks IdentifiedWe have done a
comprehensive review of WP’s business processes and global wine marketconditions and
have identified the following risks:THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT
DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios
and Questions | Page 7 of 10• Competitor risk / loss of key customer – This is the loss of a
primary distribution partnerto competing wineries.• Production risk – This is the loss
resulting from unexpected equipment repairs orreplacement.• Counterparty credit risk –
WP sells its products to various wholesalers throughout theworld. This is the risk of
financial loss resulting from counterparty default or delay ofpayment.• Market risk –
Unexpected changes in external markets impacting the cost of producingwine.• Product /
pricing risk – Unexpected changes in external markets impacting the price ofwine.•
Interest rate risk – WP has variable rate loans. This is the risk of increasing interest
ratesaffecting the financing costs.• Labor expense risk – This is the risk of adverse changes
in the cost of labor.• Business risk – This is the risk of losses resulting from general
business practices andfrom political, regulatory, and legislative issues.• Reputation risk –
This is the risk of losses due to negative publicity or failure to uphold agood reputation.•
Operational risk – This is the risk of losses arising from failures in people,
process,technology.• Weather / suboptimal growing condition risk – This is the risk of
losses due to poorgrowing conditions leading to poor wine quality and low yields.Risk
QuantificationWe are proposing the following framework to manage and monitor the above
identified risks.WP should develop well-defined risk limits and metrics that are regularly
and consistentlymonitored and enforced. They should also be reviewed regularly for
needed updates. The CROwill be responsible for developing and maintaining appropriate
models to manage and monitorrisk. One of the key modeling outputs is distributable cash
flow under both deterministic riskscenarios and more advanced scenario testing such as
stochastic simulations.The baseline company value is the present value of distributable cash
flows over a 10-year timehorizon, discounted at the hurdle rate. When assessing the various
risks, multiple scenarios arecombined using correlation matrices.A summary of the key
metrics is included in the table below.Enterprise Risk MetricDefinitionFrequency
ofReviewCompany Value (CV)Average Present Value ofDistributable Cash
FlowsAnnuallyCompany Value at Risk(CVR) from all risksCV at the
5thPercentileAnnuallyCVR from StandaloneRisk (SCVR)CV at 10thPercentileAnnuallyRisk
ToleranceIn defining WP’s risk appetite, there should be a target risk metric and a
maximum risk metric.• Target risk metric —this is where WP is most comfortable with
overall risk/rewardrelationship.• Maximum risk metric —this is the maximum amount of
risk WP is willing to take. If the riskmetric reaches the maximum, then there needs to be
action to reduce the exposure.THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT
DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios
and Questions | Page 8 of 10Risk Metric Target MaximumCVIncrease Company Value
whilemanaging to other risk tolerancesN/ACVR 15-25% of Baseline CV 35% of Baseline
CVSCVR 5-10% of Baseline CV 20% of Baseline CVOne of the objectives of WP is to
maximize company value through increasing profit margins.This is accomplished through
increasing Company Value while managing to the specified risktolerances.Conclusions and
RecommendationsThis memo has outlined an enterprise risk management strategy for
Warren Peace Winery. Thismemo should be updated and reviewed on an annual
basis.Currently, WP has no CRO. In order to embed a risk management culture throughout
theorganization, this position needs to be filled as soon as possible. The CRO will be
responsible fororganizing the ERM committee.The company objectives for WP should be
adjusted to specifically cite risk management. It isrecommended that an additional objective
be added.Question 14Several months have passed and WP has adopted a risk management
framework based on yourrecommendations. Melissa Peace, a member of the Board, is the
new Chief Risk Officer (CRO)and an ERM Committee has been created. The members of the
ERM Committee include theCRO, the General Manager, and the head winemaker.The ERM
Committee has identified the following as the key risks to WP’s CV:• Competitor risk / loss
of key customer• Weather / suboptimal growing condition risk• Production riskThe ERM
Committee has asked for your assistance in evaluating several proposed risk
mitigationstrategies. These have been suggested to align WP’s risks within the limits
proposed by theadopted risk document.To assist in determining the effectiveness of the
suggested strategies, your team constructed astochastic model. It was used to identify and
quantify the key risks for the Board and incorporatesall aspects of income and expenses.The
risk mitigation strategies include:Sales Contracts: Enter into a sales contract with your
primary distributor. The salescontract will ensure purchase of a fixed amount of wine in
exchange for adiscounted price over the next 10 years.Diversification: Lease out a portion of
WP’s vineyard and use the funds to rent space invineyards in other locations. There will be
additional costs to transportgrapes from the new vineyards to the main winery in Northern
California.Update Equipment: Invest in new equipment and maintenance workers to reduce
thelikelihood of expensive repairs to equipment.1000 scenarios of the stochastic model
were run to determine the risk metrics. The results of thestochastic model are summarized
in the excel worksheet THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE
TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions
| Page 9 of 10Considering the Risk Document adopted by theERM Committee, evaluate the
effectiveness andappropriateness of each of the above risk mitigation strategies.Note: You
will not upload the spreadsheet used with this question.Questions 15– 16Questions 15– 16
are independent of each other and are not linked to a shared scenario.Question 15Due to
your stellar actuarial work and superior management skills at Great Health Insurance(GHI),
you have just been promoted to Sr. Vice President and have been put in charge of the
newEconomic Capital/Risk Management area. You will report directly to the CEO and are
expected towork closely with the Chief Actuary and actuaries from the Pricing and
Valuation areas. Yourdepartment has been staffed with several actuarial students from your
former team, but you stillhave an Actuarial Associate position open.(A) Write an internal
job posting for the Actuarial Associate position. Describe what your area willdo. Your firm
has an actuarial student rotation program, so you will need to distinguish your areafrom
other actuarial areas to attract an internal applicant. Your Human Resources
representativewill attach specifics such as educational background, exam level, and years of
experience. Yourfocus should be describing in general terms what your area will do and
how it will interact withother key areas of the company.(B) As a public relations initiative,
the CEO wants to highlight GHI’s commitment to emerging riskmanagement strategies. She
would like to showcase your department on the company’s externalWeb site. Write a
description of how your department will benefit GHI’s stakeholders.Question 16 You are an
actuary with Mayhem Consulting. Quality Insurance, a small insurance company thatis a
new client, has provided you with detailed policyholder data for a block of universal
lifeinsurance policies and asked you to prepare a reserve estimate using that data. You
beginreviewing the data and notice some irregularities. A sample of the data provided is
shown in.(A) According to ASOP 23, what should you consider prior to using the data?
Discuss problemsthat you see with the data and how the considerations apply.You discuss
the irregularities with Quality’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO) and he is able toprovide you
with an updated data set. However, the CFO says that the policy administrationsystem
automatically assumes all policyholders are male and they haven’t been able to fix
thesystem to correctly track gender. You continue with your reserve estimate assuming
allpolicyholders are male because you know that assumption does not conflict with any
laws orregulations. You believe that reserves may be overstated by as much as $2,000,000
due to thatassumption.(B) Prepare a disclosure statement regarding data quality that you
would include in yourdocumentation.(C) After you have prepared your reserve estimate
and disclosu

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  • 1. Actuarial Task Fundamentals of Actuarial Practice: Interim AssessmentQuestionsInterim Assessment Questions OverviewAssessment StructureThis assessment comprises 16 questions you are to answer. All questions are listed in thisdocument. Questions are grouped into the following sections:• Questions 1-6 relate to a group term life insurance scenario.• Questions 7-11 relate to an individual disability insurance scenario.• Questions 12-14 relate to an ERM scenario.• Questions 15-16 are independent of each other and are not linked to a shared scenario.Your answers to the questions are to be contained in one Microsoft Word document that you willsubmit when completed with the Interim Assessment. You must use the template documentIA_template.doc that you downloaded when obtaining this document and the spreadsheets. Youwill also submit spreadsheets containing the work you complete for the first scenario. (Furtherinformation about the process for completing the Interim Assessment can be found by clicking theInterim Assessment FAQ or Interim Assessment Instructions links on the Download Page.)Important NotesAll information you want to convey to graders must be in your Microsoft Word document. Youranswers should be presented with an 11-point (minimum) font and single-spaced (with doublespacing between paragraphs).You should not assume that graders will examine the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet you upload.While graders will have access to your Excel file, they will only review your spreadsheet if theywould like to check your work.Considerations in Preparing Your Answers For the most part, your answers are not expected to be in memo form and do not need to be instructured paragraphs. It is acceptable to use outlines and lists where you believe it isappropriate. However, if the question calls for you to write a memo or document that is intendedfor an audience other than the grader, then the communication should be appropriate for thataudience.Your goal should be to answer each question completely and appropriately. You shouldeffectively and efficiently convey the information that answers each question. Your answersshould average approximately one page (single-spaced).Your name should not appear anywhere in your submission or in any way identify you as theauthor. If you believe you should refer to yourself in the context of an answer, use FAPCandidate instead of your actual name.Questions 1– 6ScenarioYou work for Sensible Insurance Company, a mid-sized insurance company whose core productis group term life. Sensible aims to grow and is trying to gain Mammoth Mart as a client.Mammoth Mart is a large employer in the U.S., and its addition will almost double the number ofinsured lives Sensible covers.Sensible operates in all states in the U.S., but focuses on small to medium sized businessesTHIS MATERIAL IS
  • 2. STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 1 of 10concentrated in the Eastern U.S. Its current book of business has an average occupation mix of20% blue- collar/80% white-collar. The average case size is 81 lives with no single groupcomprising more than 2% of the insured lives.The CFO of Sensible is concerned that it may be growing too fast and has asked you to analyzethe effect of adding Mammoth Mart as a client. Your student actuary has sent you the followinginformation about Mammoth Mart:1. It has offices nationwide with over 500,000 employees.2. Approximately 60% of the employees are blue-collar, with the remainder being white-collar.3. As of today, all of its locations are in the U.S., but it is considering opening some Canadianlocations in the next year or two.4. It is using a broker to negotiate prices and benefits with insurers.Mammoth Mart wants a simple plan for its employees– all of them will be covered, and the faceamount will equal the employee’s annual salary. However, instead of a typical one-year rateguarantee contract with premiums paid monthly, Mammoth Mart would like a three-year rateguarantee on the premium. It will pay the entire three years’ premium up-front based on its currentworkforce and salaries, with monthly adjustments based on increases or decreases to thecovered salary amount.Ideally, for such a large group we would want to use Mammoth Mart’s own experience to developa rate, but this is the first time it has sought life insurance coverage. Therefore Sensible’s ratemanual needs to be used.A spreadsheet, which can be downloaded by clicking the Excel File Group Term link on theDownload Page, has been prepared to assist you with the questions. Further description of thespreadsheet will be provided in the questions.Question 1(A) Using the existing ratemaking information provided in ,determine the monthly premium per $1000 of covered salary for Mammoth Mart. Show your workin your answer.(B) Due to Mammoth Mart’s request for an unusual payment arrangement you decide a monthlycash flow model should be built to better understand the financial implications. Your studentactuary provides a model that you agree is sufficient for your immediate needs, located in .You notice that using the assumed premium from (1A), the profit is greater than 3% of the claims.Briefly explain why this is and recommend a premium that matches the profit goal.Premiums for both (A) and (B) (monthly cost / $1000 covered payroll) should be rounded to thenearest tenth of a cent.For Questions 2-5, if a premium is needed in your calculations use the premium from 1(B).Question 2What are the key external factors that Sensible should consider when determining whether or notto pursue the Mammoth Mart account? How do these factors apply to this specific situation?Question 3 Up until this point management has wanted you to use a 3.0% investment income rate. However,because investment income plays an important role in the case of Mammoth Mart you want toexplore it in more depth. Using the historic data for different asset classes located in recommend an investment strategy and investment income rateassumption.Question 4THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 2 of 10Mammoth Mart has been considering purchasing one of its rivals, Pacific Pro Shopper, andcompany officials are estimating the purchase would be effective at the start of month 30 in thecurrent contract. This purchase would result in an additional $5B of monthly payroll covered foreach of the
  • 3. remaining 7 months. Assume that the premium rate cannot be renegotiated for theadditional payroll.Using the monthly cash flow model located in , briefly describe theimpact the purchase would have on the premium that is collected by Sensible and the endingcash position compared to the original assumptions. As a baseline scenario, assume that theaverage claims rate remains level throughout the contract period.Question 5Before you give your final recommendation to the CFO regarding the Mammoth Mart contract,you decide it would be best to perform some sensitivity testing. Discuss the assumptions that youshould consider when performing a sensitivity analysis. Explain why each of these assumptions isimportant to analyze. Do not perform the sensitivity analysis.Question 6Three years have passed and you have been asked to evaluate the Mammoth Mart deal.Mammoth Mart has expressed interest in a renewal quote.Mammoth Mart’s experience has been summarized by your actuarial student in . Note that the Canadian expansion has not yet occurred and talks with PacificPro Shopper have been delayed past the 30-month mark initially anticipated. Actual expenses forSensible have been equal to those in the original assumptions.(A) Evaluate Mammoth Mart’s results and profitability for Sensible. Are there any concerns aboutthe results? Briefly discuss how well the rate guarantee worked for Sensible.(B) In a memo written to an actuarial student who will be working with this contract going forwardsummarize your approach to the renewal using the control cycle as a framework. Include all fivecomponents of the control cycle as they relate specifically to this situation (Professionalism,External Forces, Define the Problem, Design the Solution, and Monitor the Results) as well as keyrenewal rating considerations, recommendations, or concerns you have.Note: Be sure to save your spreadsheet calculations showing your work for the group termscenario. You will be prompted to upload this saved spreadsheet when you have completed theInterim Assessment.Questions 7– 11ScenarioYour company, Awesome Benefits Company, sells the following individual disability insuranceproduct.• Level annual premiums are paid while healthy and under age 65. Premium rates areguaranteed and premiums are due at the beginning of the year• Upon disability, a level monthly benefit is paid while the policyholder is unable to work (astatus that is defined in the policy)• Benefit payments commence after a 90 day waiting period (also called an eliminationperiod)• Benefit payments are 60% of salary and cease when the policyholder turns age 65, dies,or recovers• The target market is highly paid professionals (such as doctors and lawyers) andcorporate executives.• The product is sold through insurance agents.You have assigned your actuarial student, Joe, to build a pricing model. Joe has built the model inTHIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 3 of 10AssetAnnual*Coupon RateMaturityPrice / FaceT-bill N/A 1 Year 990 / 1000T-Note 2.9% 10 Year 1000 / 1000Corporate Bond 3.2% 10 Year 1000 / 1000Corporate Bond 4.1% 30 Year 1000 / 1000the Excel spreadsheet . Joe has made all of the baselineassumptions and selected initial premiums. The per-unit premium for each policy is set equal tothe issue age – for example, a 42-year old with a $100,000 salary would pay $4,200 annuallywhile a 30-year old with a $50,000 salary would pay $1,500 annually. Joe thinks this pricingscheme will help with marketing the product, because each year a customer delays buying thispolicy will lead to an increase in the level premium.Given the recent economic volatility,
  • 4. Awesome Benefits Company has a conservative investmentstrategy. The investment strategy has three priorities; first it is required to hold at least a certainpercent of its portfolio in liquid, short-term assets. The value can be found on the Documentationtab of the spreadsheet . Next, it wants to duration match assetsand liabilities. Finally, it prefers to invest in United States government securities.Awesome Benefit Company uses profit as a percent of premium as its primary profit measure.Using a discount rate of 5%, the required present value of distributable earnings as a percentageof premium is 10%. Management also desires an IRR greater than 10%.For this assessment, you can ignore the claims paying ability of the company and any other plandesign features not mentioned in this assessment. You do not have to audit the model.Question 7Now that the pricing model is built in , Awesome BenefitCompany’s investment managers have asked you what type of assets should be purchased toback reserves and capital. You have been asked to assess and comment on its investmentstrategy.(A) Using an interest rate of 5.0%, and the cash flows in the Model Income Statement tab,calculate the modified duration using paid claims as the liability cash flows.(B) Given the available assets below, build an asset portfolio that best meets the requirementsand preferences of the company’s investment strategy. Discuss the characteristics andimplications of the choice of assets.* Assume coupons are paid once per year, at the end of the year(C) Senior management has determined that Awesome Benefit Company’s investment strategyshould be even more conservative. You are now required to invest 100% of assets in governmentsecurities. Build a second asset portfolio, which is as close to duration matched as possible.Discuss the characteristics and implications of the choice of assets and compare it to the firstportfolio.Question 8You need to review Joe’s pricing work (recall though that you do not have to audit the model).Use the model to run the entire population.(A) Using Joe’s initial assumptions in the cell info tab, discuss the results of the pricing model inlight of the desired profit measures. Recommend changes to the premium schedule if necessary.(B) Assuming Joe’s premiums are maintained, assess Joe’s premium selection in light of themodel results by age and gender, which are summarized on the Output Summary tab of . Is setting the per-unit premium proportional to the issue ageTHIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 4 of 10appropriate? Justify your answer. Recommend changes if necessary.(C) All of Joe’s pricing work has focused on one deterministic scenario. Assuming Joe’s premiumsare maintained, perform a sensitivity analysis by changing key assumptions in the cell info taband re-running the entire model. Key assumptions to include in the analysis are incidence,maintenance expenses, and interest rates. Which assumptions are most/least critical?Question 9The new CFO doesn’t understand regulatory reserves and gross premium reserves. You createdthe following graph of regulatory reserves and gross premiums reserves by duration for the IDIprojection.Reserve ProjectionGPVTotal RegulatoryReservesDuration(A) Explain the difference between these two reserves, including the how those differencesproduce this pattern of reserves by duration.(B) Using the model output, calculate the gross premium reserve at the end of year 1 using adiscount rate of 5% and the cash flows in the Model Income Statement tab.(C) Awesome Benefit Company’s current regulatory reserves are rules-based. Discuss thedifferences when
  • 5. compared to a Principles-based valuation.Question 10In response to perceived abuse of disability income benefits by insureds, Awesome BenefitCompany decides to offer a new product with a more restrictive definition of disability. This newdefinition of disability requires policyholders to be more severely disabled in order to qualify forbenefits.Briefly describe the general impact on claim costs / claim administration expenses, litigation costs,and reinsurance needs. Similarly, briefly list what data you would seek to quantify those effects.Note: You will not upload the spreadsheet you used for this scenario.Question 11Awesome Benefits Company has completed the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)process. For the individual benefit product the subject matter experts (SME) have identified theassumptions for each of the 5 scenarios shown below and the likelihood of the scenariooccurring.THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 5 of 10Risk Scenario Likelihood(%)Credible worst-case 5Pessimistic 15Baseline 60Optimistic 15Credible best-case 5The assumptions for the 5 scenarios were run through the model. After completing the step ofestimating the quantitative impacts, the SME’s were concerned about the results from themoderately pessimistic and credible worst-case scenarios. Reinsurance was suggested as a riskmitigation strategy. The ERM team wanted to include the option of reinsurance prior to presentingresults to senior management. An offer for reinsurance was received. The model was adjusted forreinsurance and re-run.Risk Scenario No Reinsurance ReinsuranceCredible best-case 1 6Optimistic 2 7Baseline 3 8Pessimistic 4 9Credible worst-case 5 10The model income statements have been provided to you in to preparefor the senior management report. The table above indicates the scenario in the spreadsheet forthe described situation. Generate an executive summary of the data that is easy to understandand present. Make a recommendation as to whether the reinsurance offer should be chosen.Justify your recommendation.Note: You will not upload the spreadsheet used with this question.Questions 12-14ScenarioWarren Peace (WP) winery is a family-owned company which manufactures, markets, anddistributes fine wine. The winery is located on a 60 acre vineyard in Northern California, USAwhich is where WP grows grapes and manufactures its products. WP has a history and heritageof fine winemaking for over 30 years.WP sells several types of wine produced from its own locally grown grapes. Generally, WPproduces two vintages of wine, a high quality vintage wine which sells at a premium, and a lowerquality brand name wine. From time to time, WP purchases grapes from other vineyards inNorthern California and imports grapes from France, Italy, Argentina, and Canada.The current Chief Executive Officer is Warren Peace III and the Board of Directors consists of 5members of the Peace family. The company has 10 total permanent employees.WP’s company objectives include:• Produce quality wines at a reasonable price• Conduct business with integrity and honesty• Have a passion for wine• Maximize company value through increasing profit marginsDistributable profits provided by WP over the past few years have ranged from $0 to $1,000,000.As a result of this volatility, WP is in the process of adjusting the company objectives to includean increased risk management focus. To help with this task, WP has hired Al Nino to develop arisk management framework for WP. You are part of a team of actuarial students working for Al.THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER
  • 6. PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 6 of 10Question 12Warren Peace has asked your team to make a presentation to the Board of Directors to describethe ERM process. You will hand out a summary of the benefits of ERM. Al has asked you to draftthe handout and to include the following:• Why should WP implement an ERM process?• What are the benefits to WP’s major stakeholders (The Peace family, WP’s otheremployees, wholesale distributors, business partners, creditors, and customers)?• Who will be responsible for the ERM process?• How will a Corporate Value ERM framework assist in WP’s business decision makingprocess?• How will an ERM framework address the Board’s concerns?The handout should be written in bullet point form summarizing the main ideas of yourpresentation.Question 13Warren has asked Al to recommend an ERM framework for WP winery. One of your fellowactuarial students has drafted the following memo and has asked you to review it before sendingit to Al. Suggest five ways to improve the document.Do not include any grammar, style or punctuation improvements.Do not submit an entire revision of the document; rather just provide a description of thesuggested improvements.TO: Warren Peace IIIFROM: Al Nino, Risk ConsultantRE: WP Winery Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) FrameworkIntroductionThis memo will lay out considerations for the development of an enterprise risk managementstrategy for Warren Peace Winery (WP).The risk management philosophy of WP should:• Identify and successfully manage risks that present good risk/reward opportunities• Balance demands of various stakeholders• Encourage a risk management culture throughout the company• Quantify risks and strictly manage to an indentified risk toleranceAn understanding of enterprise risk management should be embedded throughout theorganization. The CEO is ultimately responsible for the key risks, but responsibilities will bedelegated to the Chief Risk Officer (CRO) and the ERM committee.• CRO: responsible for providing the CEO with a written risk report on a quarterly basis,which includes a status report on risk tolerances and risk appetite. Currently there is noCRO on staff at WP.• ERM Committee, which is a subset of the work force and includes equal representationfrom manufacturing, marketing, and distribution. This committee is responsible forreviewing and recommending risk tolerance and risk appetite.Risks IdentifiedWe have done a comprehensive review of WP’s business processes and global wine marketconditions and have identified the following risks:THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 7 of 10• Competitor risk / loss of key customer – This is the loss of a primary distribution partnerto competing wineries.• Production risk – This is the loss resulting from unexpected equipment repairs orreplacement.• Counterparty credit risk – WP sells its products to various wholesalers throughout theworld. This is the risk of financial loss resulting from counterparty default or delay ofpayment.• Market risk – Unexpected changes in external markets impacting the cost of producingwine.• Product / pricing risk – Unexpected changes in external markets impacting the price ofwine.• Interest rate risk – WP has variable rate loans. This is the risk of increasing interest ratesaffecting the financing costs.• Labor expense risk – This is the risk of adverse changes in the cost of labor.• Business risk – This is the risk of losses resulting from general business practices andfrom political, regulatory, and legislative issues.• Reputation risk –
  • 7. This is the risk of losses due to negative publicity or failure to uphold agood reputation.• Operational risk – This is the risk of losses arising from failures in people, process,technology.• Weather / suboptimal growing condition risk – This is the risk of losses due to poorgrowing conditions leading to poor wine quality and low yields.Risk QuantificationWe are proposing the following framework to manage and monitor the above identified risks.WP should develop well-defined risk limits and metrics that are regularly and consistentlymonitored and enforced. They should also be reviewed regularly for needed updates. The CROwill be responsible for developing and maintaining appropriate models to manage and monitorrisk. One of the key modeling outputs is distributable cash flow under both deterministic riskscenarios and more advanced scenario testing such as stochastic simulations.The baseline company value is the present value of distributable cash flows over a 10-year timehorizon, discounted at the hurdle rate. When assessing the various risks, multiple scenarios arecombined using correlation matrices.A summary of the key metrics is included in the table below.Enterprise Risk MetricDefinitionFrequency ofReviewCompany Value (CV)Average Present Value ofDistributable Cash FlowsAnnuallyCompany Value at Risk(CVR) from all risksCV at the 5thPercentileAnnuallyCVR from StandaloneRisk (SCVR)CV at 10thPercentileAnnuallyRisk ToleranceIn defining WP’s risk appetite, there should be a target risk metric and a maximum risk metric.• Target risk metric —this is where WP is most comfortable with overall risk/rewardrelationship.• Maximum risk metric —this is the maximum amount of risk WP is willing to take. If the riskmetric reaches the maximum, then there needs to be action to reduce the exposure.THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 8 of 10Risk Metric Target MaximumCVIncrease Company Value whilemanaging to other risk tolerancesN/ACVR 15-25% of Baseline CV 35% of Baseline CVSCVR 5-10% of Baseline CV 20% of Baseline CVOne of the objectives of WP is to maximize company value through increasing profit margins.This is accomplished through increasing Company Value while managing to the specified risktolerances.Conclusions and RecommendationsThis memo has outlined an enterprise risk management strategy for Warren Peace Winery. Thismemo should be updated and reviewed on an annual basis.Currently, WP has no CRO. In order to embed a risk management culture throughout theorganization, this position needs to be filled as soon as possible. The CRO will be responsible fororganizing the ERM committee.The company objectives for WP should be adjusted to specifically cite risk management. It isrecommended that an additional objective be added.Question 14Several months have passed and WP has adopted a risk management framework based on yourrecommendations. Melissa Peace, a member of the Board, is the new Chief Risk Officer (CRO)and an ERM Committee has been created. The members of the ERM Committee include theCRO, the General Manager, and the head winemaker.The ERM Committee has identified the following as the key risks to WP’s CV:• Competitor risk / loss of key customer• Weather / suboptimal growing condition risk• Production riskThe ERM Committee has asked for your assistance in evaluating several proposed risk mitigationstrategies. These have been suggested to align WP’s risks within the limits proposed by theadopted risk document.To assist in determining the effectiveness of the
  • 8. suggested strategies, your team constructed astochastic model. It was used to identify and quantify the key risks for the Board and incorporatesall aspects of income and expenses.The risk mitigation strategies include:Sales Contracts: Enter into a sales contract with your primary distributor. The salescontract will ensure purchase of a fixed amount of wine in exchange for adiscounted price over the next 10 years.Diversification: Lease out a portion of WP’s vineyard and use the funds to rent space invineyards in other locations. There will be additional costs to transportgrapes from the new vineyards to the main winery in Northern California.Update Equipment: Invest in new equipment and maintenance workers to reduce thelikelihood of expensive repairs to equipment.1000 scenarios of the stochastic model were run to determine the risk metrics. The results of thestochastic model are summarized in the excel worksheet THIS MATERIAL IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL. DO NOT DISTRIBUTE TO ANY OTHER PERSON.© 2012-2013 Society of Actuaries | IA 4.0 Scenarios and Questions | Page 9 of 10Considering the Risk Document adopted by theERM Committee, evaluate the effectiveness andappropriateness of each of the above risk mitigation strategies.Note: You will not upload the spreadsheet used with this question.Questions 15– 16Questions 15– 16 are independent of each other and are not linked to a shared scenario.Question 15Due to your stellar actuarial work and superior management skills at Great Health Insurance(GHI), you have just been promoted to Sr. Vice President and have been put in charge of the newEconomic Capital/Risk Management area. You will report directly to the CEO and are expected towork closely with the Chief Actuary and actuaries from the Pricing and Valuation areas. Yourdepartment has been staffed with several actuarial students from your former team, but you stillhave an Actuarial Associate position open.(A) Write an internal job posting for the Actuarial Associate position. Describe what your area willdo. Your firm has an actuarial student rotation program, so you will need to distinguish your areafrom other actuarial areas to attract an internal applicant. Your Human Resources representativewill attach specifics such as educational background, exam level, and years of experience. Yourfocus should be describing in general terms what your area will do and how it will interact withother key areas of the company.(B) As a public relations initiative, the CEO wants to highlight GHI’s commitment to emerging riskmanagement strategies. She would like to showcase your department on the company’s externalWeb site. Write a description of how your department will benefit GHI’s stakeholders.Question 16 You are an actuary with Mayhem Consulting. Quality Insurance, a small insurance company thatis a new client, has provided you with detailed policyholder data for a block of universal lifeinsurance policies and asked you to prepare a reserve estimate using that data. You beginreviewing the data and notice some irregularities. A sample of the data provided is shown in.(A) According to ASOP 23, what should you consider prior to using the data? Discuss problemsthat you see with the data and how the considerations apply.You discuss the irregularities with Quality’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO) and he is able toprovide you with an updated data set. However, the CFO says that the policy administrationsystem automatically assumes all policyholders are male and they haven’t been able to fix thesystem to correctly track gender. You continue with your reserve estimate assuming allpolicyholders are male because you know that assumption does not conflict with any laws orregulations. You believe that reserves may be overstated by as much as $2,000,000
  • 9. due to thatassumption.(B) Prepare a disclosure statement regarding data quality that you would include in yourdocumentation.(C) After you have prepared your reserve estimate and disclosu