SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 12
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
CoreLogic® 2011
Natural Hazard Risk
Summary and Analysis

Howard Botts, PhD
Wei Du, PhD
Brady Foust, PhD
Thomas Jeffery, PhD
Executive Summary

2011 Natural Hazard Risk
Summary and Analysis
As it has been noted by numerous scientists, risk analysts and other forecasters, 201  1
proved to be a record-breaking year for natural catastrophes in the United States and
around the world. Hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes and various flooding
events caused billions of dollars in property damage, put disaster readiness plans and
emergency responders to the test in major U.S. urban areas, and resulted in a significant
number of lost lives across the country. Now, in addition to reviewing the immediate
structural, geographic and financial impact of the past year’s catastrophic events, it’s
crucial to consider notable changes in natural hazard incidents as part of a longer-term
perspective and evaluate the implications of these trends.

One of the most noteworthy statistics to emerge from this annual natural hazard review
is that 201 was the most expensive and the deadliest hurricane season for the U.S. since
           1
2008. Though only three named Atlantic storms made landfall, they caused at least a
combined $8 billion in damage, primarily from flooding. In addition, the 201 tornado
                                                                             1
season was the third most active since 1980. The 1,559 storms to date this year resulted
in the deaths of 552 people, which amount to the combined total number of casualties
over the previous ten years.

While the 201 wildfire season continued the trend of having fewer but larger wildfires,
               1
there was a significant geographic shift in home losses over the past year from California,
which had a cooler and wetter-than-average fire season, to the drought-affected states of
Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma. In fact, total burned wildfire acreage in California was
down 90 percent in 2010-201 compared to 2007-2008. At the same time, the Wallow
                              1
fire in Arizona burned 469,000 acres and was the largest fire in the state’s history.

Also important to note is that two non-western U.S. earthquakes occurred this year in
Virginia and Oklahoma – events that startled many residents who believed earthquakes
to be strictly a far west U.S. phenomenon. Though in reality earthquake activity in 2011
mirrored the long-running trend of quake concentration in the western U.S., where
underlying geology and plate tectonics generate a more active seismic zone, the two
unexpected events in the Midwest and Northeast caused a considerable stir among
homeowners, insurers and many others affected by the quakes.

The CoreLogic Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis provides an overview of the
most significant catastrophic natural hazard events that took place in 201 as well as a
                                                                            1,
brief analysis of potential risk in the coming year and the implications of unexpected
changes in natural hazard frequency, intensity and geographic patterns.
CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis




                                         HURRICANES
                                         Year in Review
                                         This year was the most expensive and deadliest hurricane season since 2008. While only
SNAPSHOT                                 three of the 18 named Atlantic Ocean storms struck the U.S. (Hurricane Irene, Tropical
While the direct impact                  Storm Lee and Tropical Storm Don), those storms resulted in at least $8 billion in
on New York City from                    damage and 45 people killed. Much of the property damage associated with the storms
Hurricane Irene (a                       was a result of flooding from intense rainfall as opposed to wind or storm surge flooding.
Category 1 hurricane)                    Overall, 201 was the seventh most active hurricane season to date in terms of property
                                                      1
was ultimately minimal,                  and life losses since tracking began in 1851.
there are some important
lessons to be learned from               Hurricane irene: The largest and most destructive storm of 201 Hurricane Irene,
                                                                                                               1,
this event. The evacuation               made landfall over coastal North Carolina on August 27. The storm tracked northward
order, affecting 370,000                 along the Mid-Atlantic coast (moving over Virginia, Washington, D.C., Maryland, New
residents, suggests the
                                         Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Vermont) causing
city lacks confidence
                                         torrential rainfall and flooding across much of the northeastern U.S. Especially hard hit
in the flood control
infrastructure. In fact,
                                         were New York, New Jersey and Vermont, which experienced extensive flood damage.
New York City does not                   According to the National Climatic Data Center, the total cost of the hurricane was more
have sufficient capacity                 than $7.3 billion, of which the associated flood damage was about $2 billion. Comparing
to defend itself from the                flood damage over the past several years with the flood damage from Hurricane Irene (see
storm surge associated                   Figure 1), the flood loss from this single hurricane ranks as the second most expensive in
with catastrophic                        this region.
hurricane events, which
would be a storm
                                                                            Annual Flood Damage in Northeast and Hurricane Irene
classified as Category 2 or
                                                                   5
greater. With major tunnel
and subway entrances
only four feet above sea
level, even a modest                                               4
hurricane-driven storm
surge would result in                                                                                             Hurricane Irene
                                         Flood Loss in $billions




                                                                                                                  NC, VA, MD, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT
significant inundation and
could easily lead to billions                                      3
in economic loss.


                                                                   2




                                                                   1




                                                                   0
                                                                    1992   1994   1996   1998   2000     2002         2004      2006        2008        2010
                                                                                                  Water Year
                                         Figure 1 - Comparison of Historical Flood Losses and Irene (1999 hurricane flood losses were the result of Hurricane
                                         Floyd, with an estimated $4.5 billion in damages and 56 people killed.)




Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission.                                             1
CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis




                               Tropical STorm lee: On the heels of Hurricane Irene, Tropical Storm Lee developed
                               from a broad tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico on September 1, 201 The1.
                               storm was both large and slow moving, and because of these characteristics, drove heavy
                               rainfall over southern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The storm then moved north
                               toward the Mid-Atlantic U.S. and unleashed a second outpouring of intense precipitation
                               over Pennsylvania and New York. Figure 2 shows the rainfall map for Tropical Storm
                               Lee, produced by NASA. The satellite imagery clearly shows the five states listed above
                                                                                            receiving the greatest
                                                                                            amounts of precipitation,
                                                                                            with some locations in
                                                                                            Pennsylvania and New York
                                                                                            accumulating 12 inches of
                                                                                            rainfall. Flooding associated
                                                                                            with the heavy Tropical
                                                                                            Storm Lee precipitation
                                                                                            caused significant property
                                                                                            damage in the affected
                                                                                            areas, estimated to be more
                                                                                            than $1 billion.


                                                                                             Implications and
                                                                                             Projections
                                                                                              Given the extent of
                                                                                              property damage left in the
                                                                                              wake of Hurricane Irene
                                                                                              and Tropical Storm Lee,
                                                                                              particularly in what might
                                                                                              be considered unlikely and
                                                                                              underprepared regions of
Figure 2 – Precipitation Map
                                                                                              the U.S., many risk experts
from Tropical Storm Lee        feel it’s time to rethink national flood policies around the country and especially in major
                               metropolitan hubs like New York City. There are several key lessons to be taken away from
                               the impact of Tropical Storm Lee, including:
                                 ►   Large-sized and slow-moving tropical storms originating from the Gulf of Mexico
                                     can carry significant precipitation and lead to severe flooding and property damage
                                     in the Northeast.
                                 ►   Short-time intervals between two severe weather systems can exacerbate flooding. Just
                                     one week prior to Tropical Storm Lee, Hurricane Irene had soaked the northeastern
                                     region of the country. Tropical Storm Lee then poured huge amounts of water on top
                                     of the already saturated Northeast, resulting in elevated levels of flooding.
                                 ►   Property loss associated with flooding from Tropical Storm Lee for the five principal
                                     states affected was ranked as the fifth highest based on records over the past 16
                                     years. Even though Lee was not an extreme event, conditions were present that
                                     combined to result in extensive damage and destruction.




2                                                                                                         ©2011 CoreLogic, Inc.
CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis




                                         FLOODING
                                         Year in Review
SNAPSHOT                                 In 201 there were a number of climate disaster events across the U.S. that each resulted
                                               1,
The U.S. Army Corps of
                                         in flood losses exceeding $1 billion, according to data from the National Climate Data
Engineers opened the                     Center (NCDC):
Morganza spillway in                                      ►             Tropical Storm Lee, September 201 caused an estimated $1 billion in flood
                                                                                                           1,
Louisiana on May 14, 2011
                                                                        damage, with particularly severe impact on the states of Pennsylvania and New York.
to divert record-high
Mississippi River water                                   ►             Hurricane Irene, August 201 caused an estimated $2 billion in flood damage (out
                                                                                                     1,
levels away from densely                                                of $7.3 billion in total damage).
populated metro areas
like Baton Rouge and                                      ►             In the summer of 201 the melting of an above-average snowpack across the
                                                                                             1,
New Orleans. The spillway                                               northern Rocky Mountains combined with abnormally high precipitation caused
was intended to relieve                                                 the Missouri and Souris rivers to swell beyond their banks across the upper
pressure on downstream                                                  Midwest. The resulting flooding caused an estimated $2 billion in losses.
levees, sparing hundreds
of thousands of homes                                     ►             In the spring and summer of 201 record-breaking rainfall in the Ohio Valley (nearly
                                                                                                        1,
as well as numerous oil                                                 300 percent over normal precipitation amounts) combined with melting snowpack
refineries and chemical                                                 caused historical flooding along the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Flood loss
plants along the                                                        estimates from the Mississippi River inundation are estimated to be $4 billion.
Mississippi River.

CoreLogic analysis at
the time showed that                                                              Moving Average Trend Analysis of U.S. Flood Losses
many homes in otherwise                                                 $50.00
low-risk zones were
suddenly in the path of                                                 $45.00
                                         U.S. Flood Loss in $billions




floodwaters and that a                                                                       Actual Flood Losses
                                                                        $40.00
total of 21,272 homes were                                                                   Moving Average Trend of Flood Losses
at risk of being fully or                                               $35.00
partially inundated by the
                                                                        $30.00
floodwaters flowing down
from the Atchafalaya                                                    $25.00
Basin. Of the more than
20,000 homes located                                                    $20.00
in the overall potential
                                                                         $15.00
Atchafalaya flood area,
4,528 homes are located                                                  $10.00
outside of Federal
Emergency Management                                                      $5.00
Agency (FEMA) defined                                                     $0.00
flood zones and are,                                                           1900   1910    1920   1930   1940   1950   1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020
therefore, not required
to maintain flood
                                                                                                                      Water Year
insurance policies.                      Figure 3 – U.S. Flood Loss Trend Analysis




Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission.                                                    3
CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis




    Implications and Projections
    Based on flood losses from the various catastrophic events that occurred in 2011,
    flooding and storm events recorded in the NCDC climate event database and the
    consideration of other related factors, CoreLogic estimates the 201 U.S. flood-related
                                                                       1
    losses at approximately $10.67 billion.

    Combining this 201 estimation with more than 100 years’ historical data reveals a
                          1
    fluctuating trend in flood losses with a cyclical climate pattern over time. Figure 3
    illustrates both the characteristics of recorded U.S. flood losses since 1900 and a projected
    trend curve, which aligns directly with the historical data. Fluctuation of flood loss trend
    data lends itself to a number of forecasts for the possible magnitude of national flood loss
    in 2012:
      ►   Based on the trend pattern, 2012 should not be an extreme flood year. In fact,
          2012 is the seventh year after the 2005 catastrophic event Hurricane Katrina, and
          according to the flood loss trend, there should be several more years before the next
          extreme flood loss year.
      ►   As demonstrated in Figure 3, the flood loss trend curve at 201 is the upward side
                                                                        1
          of a small peak (the second peak after an extreme year), therefore the curve in 2012
          should potentially continue downhill. In other words, the U.S. flood loss level in
          2012 should be lower than the loss level in 2011.
      ►   By using a loss reduction ratio from two previous second peaks after extreme years
          (1972 and 1993), and considering the forecast for the next 20-year average flood
          loss, the projected U.S. flood loss in 2012 is approximately $3.53 billion.
      ►   Though historical trend pattern analysis suggests that U.S. flood loss for 2012
          should not be extreme, CoreLogic data suggests hurricanes, tropical storms, and
          tsunamis may affect flood totals significantly.

    Important to note is that the floods of 201 have heightened awareness of flood risk
                                               1
    outside of the FEMA 100-year flood zones and will put pressure on businesses and
    insurance companies to develop a better understanding of flood-risk vulnerability.
    Hurricane storm surge potential and inland flooding this year have also emphasized
    the need to raise the current flood protection standard for the critical and strategic
    infrastructures in the U.S.




4                                                                               ©2011 CoreLogic, Inc.
CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis




                                         TORNADOES
                                         Year in Review
                                         As of December 1, a total of 1,559 confirmed tornadoes have been reported in the U. S.,
SNAPSHOT                                 making 201 the third most active tornado season since 1980 (see Figure 4 below). The
                                                    1
The “2011 Super Outbreak”                number of tornadoes in 201 was also significantly above the yearly average of 1,125
                                                                      1
occurred between April                   (1980 - 2010). In particular, April represented a huge anomaly with 762 confirmed
25 and April 28, and has                 touchdowns, 200 over the previous record.
been identified as the
largest tornado outbreak
ever recorded with 336
                                                                                    Tornadoes by Year
confirmed tornadoes
spread across the                          2,000
South, Midwest and the                      1,800
Northeast. In addition,                     1,600
April 27 was the single
                                            1,400
deadliest day since
1925, with 324 tornado-                     1,200
related deaths. The most                    1,000
destructive storm of the                      800
outbreak, an EF5 tornado,
struck Tuscaloosa, Ala.,
                                              600
destroyed a significant                       400
part of the town and                          200
resulted in 51 deaths.                            0
Insured loss estimates
                                                       80

                                                             82

                                                                   84

                                                                          86

                                                                                88

                                                                                       90

                                                                                            92

                                                                                                  94

                                                                                                        96

                                                                                                              98

                                                                                                                      0

                                                                                                                           02

                                                                                                                                4

                                                                                                                                     6

                                                                                                                                             8

                                                                                                                                            10
                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                                0
                                                                                                                      0
for the four-day outbreak




                                                                                                                                          20
                                                            19




                                                                                            19
                                                                               19
                                                                        19




                                                                                                             19
                                                                                                       19
                                                                  19




                                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                 19
                                                      19




                                                                                                                                         20
                                                                                     19




                                                                                                                                    20
                                                                                                                               20
                                                                                                                  20
range from $3.5 to $5
billion, with the Tuscaloosa             Figure 4 – Confirmed U.S. Tornadoes by Year
damage alone estimated
in excess of $2 billion.
                                         What really set the 201 tornado season apart from previous years was the number of
                                                                  1
Not quite a month later,                 casualties, with a total of 552 as of December 1. The total number of deaths in 201 1
on May 22, another EF5                   alone is equal to the previous ten years of tornado-related deaths combined. Given that
tornado struck Joplin,                   we live in the era of Doppler radar, which has lead to earlier and more accurate tornado
Mo., plowing a mile-wide
                                         warnings, this number is exceptionally extraordinary. The direct urban hits by tornadoes
path directly through
                                         in Tuscaloosa, Ala. and Joplin, Mo. greatly contributed to the exceedingly high number
the southern part of the
city, killing 161 people
                                         of casualties.
and causing tremendous
damage to the city. The
most recent insurance
                                         Implications and Projections
payout estimates for the                 In most years, with the exception of large catastrophe losses from earthquakes or
Joplin tornado are in                    hurricanes, wind and hail damage from cyclonic storms are major contributors to
excess of $2.2 billion.                  insurance claim losses. In the past, companies were confident they had an accurate
                                         underwriting knowledge of the areas, such as “tornado alley,” that resulted in the
                                         greatest claims. During the past few years, however, property, casualty and commercial
                                         insurers have begun to realize they need to carefully reevaluate this perception. For
                                         many companies, the result of actuarial analysis of claims loss against granular damaging
                                         winds and hail geospatial databases has led to a considerable expansion of areas now
                                         considered higher risk for wind and hail claims loss.




Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission.                              5
CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis




                               WILDFIRE
                               Year in Review
SNAPSHOT                       The 201 wildfire season in the U.S. is indicative of the dynamic variability of wildfire
                                        1
                               activity. Wildfire statistics through October 201 parallel the overall trend of fewer fires
                                                                                1
Though 2011 is close to
the ten-year maximum in
                               that are larger in size (see Figures 5 and 6 below). As of October, the U.S. has experienced
wildfire acreage burned        the fifth most acreage burned and the eighth highest number of fires, when compared
for the country, there         with the preceding ten-year period. If compared with just the preceding five years, 201   1
is one unusual factor          would be ranked lowest in number of fires and fourth in terms of acres burned.
that is not apparent in
the combined statistics.       Much of the wildfire activity in 201 shifted to southwestern states undergoing a
                                                                   1
California is often one        prolonged and significant drought. In late May, the largest fire in Arizona history, the
of the leading states in       Wallow Fire, forced the evacuation of thousands of residents and burned more than
both wildfire activity and     469,000 acres. Texas and Oklahoma also experienced a record number of wildfires,
insurance claims due to        with the Bastrop fire in Texas alone resulting in more than 1,600 homes and structures
wildfire-related property      destroyed and 34,000 acres burned.
loss, topping one million
acres and billions of
dollars of damage in
both 2007 and 2008.                                                        U.S. Wildfire Acres
However, the statistics for                           12
2010 and 2011 indicate a
greater than 90 percent                               10
                                 Millions of Acres




reduction in acreage
consumed by wildfires                                 8
when compared with
the 2007-2008 period.                                 6
From January through
mid-November 2011,                                    4
California wildfires totaled
just 51,379 acres – less
                                                      2
than half the historically
                                                      0
low amount of 108,742
acres in 2010 (see Figure                                  2001   2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009     2010   2011
7). An abnormally wet
winter and cool summer in      Figure 5 – Total U.S. Wildfire Acres Burned 2001 - 2011
parts of the western U.S.,
including California, are
primarily responsible for
this significant reduction
in wildfire acreage.
                                                                               U.S. Wildfires
                                                      12

                                                      10
                                 Thousands of Fires




                                                      8

                                                      6

                                                      4

                                                      2

                                                      0
                                                           2001   2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009     2010   2011



                               Figure 6 – Total Number of U.S. Wildfires 2001 – 2011




6                                                                                                                           ©2011 CoreLogic, Inc.
CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis




                                                                                                                 Implications and Projections
                                    California Wildfire Acres                                                     A review of past fire seasons indicates
                      1600                                                                                       that wildfire activity often follows a
                                                                                                                 cyclical pattern of increase and decrease
                      1400
 Thousands of Acres




                                                                                                                 due to changing seasonal weather
                      1200                                                                                       patterns. Colder and wetter weather
                      1000                                                                                       in areas prone to wildfires is often
                                                                                                                 the precursor to a dramatic increase
                      800                                                                                        in the number and size of wildfires in
                      600                                                                                        subsequent years, as a result of greater
                      400                                                                                        than normal vegetation growth during
                                                                                                                 times of increased precipitation. It
                      200                                                                                        would not be unreasonable to expect
                        0                                                                                        parts of California to see a similar trend
                             2006   2007         2008         2009            2010           2011                in the next few years, with wildfire
                                                                                                                 acreage increasing dramatically from
                                                                                                                 the current historic lows to higher, more
Figure 7 – California Wildfire
Acres Burned 2006 - 2011
                                                                                                                 typical levels.

                                           In addition, persistent and intensifying drought conditions are forecast for an even larger
                                           section of the U.S. for the coming year, extending in a continuous band from Arizona
                                           to South Carolina and as far north as Kansas and Missouri. Much of the increase in
                                           wildfire activity for 201 in Texas, Arizona and New Mexico was the result of the persistent
                                                                    1
                                           drought conditions in those areas (see Figure 8 below), which is expected to intensify and
                                           spread in the early part of 2012.


                                                                   U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
                                                                        Drought Tendency During the Valid Period
                                                                                         Valid November 17, 2011 - February 29, 2012
                                                                                                Released November 17, 2011



                                                                                                      Some
                                                                                                   Improvement
                                                                                                                                           Improvement

                                                                                                                                                   Some
                                                                                                                                                Improvement




                                              Improvement
                                                                              Development                                                                       Development

                                                      KEY:                                                                        Persistence
                                                      Drought to persist or
                                                                                                                                           No Drought
                                                      intensify
                                                                                                                                         Posted/Predicted
                                                      Drought ongoing, some
                                                                                   Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided
                                                      improvement                  by short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts. Short-term events
                                                      Drought likely to improve,   -- such as individual storms -- cannot be accurately forecast more than a few days in advance.
                                                      impacts ease                 Use caution for applications -- such as crops -- that can be affected by such events.
                                                                                   "Ongoing" drought areas are approximated from the Drought Monitor (D1 to D4 intensity).
                                                      Drought development          For weekly drought updates, see the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. NOTE: the green improvement
                                                      likely                       areas imply at least a 1-category improvement in the Drought Monitor intensity levels,
                                                                                   but do not necessarily imply drought elimination.



                                           Figure 8 – U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook




Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission.                                                                 7
CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis




                              EARTHQUAKES
                              Year in Review
SNAPSHOT                      This year has been an unusual year in terms of the frequency of larger earthquakes, or
                              quakes registering as greater than 2.8 on the Richter Scale (see Figure 9 below), as was
The 5.8 magnitude
earthquake that hit central
                              2010. As the graph below indicates, 2010 and 201 have seen more than double the
                                                                               1
Virginia and was felt         number of earthquakes compared to the previous 14 years. The contiguous U. S. generally
throughout the eastern        averages around ten major quakes per year.
seaboard on August 23,
2011 was unusual, but not
unprecedented. The quake
                                                                       Total U.S. Earthquakes (past 15 years)
was felt from as far north                        30
as Quebec to as far south
as Georgia and caused                             25
                               # of Earthquakes




damage to a number of
buildings in the region.                          20
Though thankfully no
lives were lost as a result                        15
of the Virginia quake,
the tremors wreaked                                10
havoc on several iconic
local structures, namely
                                                     5
the National Cathedral
and the Washington
                                                    0
Monument. In early
                                                          96

                                                                  97

                                                                        98

                                                                                  99


                                                                                              0

                                                                                                             1
                                                                                                                    02

                                                                                                                            03


                                                                                                                                     4

                                                                                                                                                  5

                                                                                                                                                         6

                                                                                                                                                                 07


                                                                                                                                                                      8

                                                                                                                                                                               9

                                                                                                                                                                             10

                                                                                                                                                                                     11
                                                                                                            0




                                                                                                                                              0




                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                       0




                                                                                                                                                                             0
                                                                                                                                     0




                                                                                                                                                                                   20
                                                                                         0




November, Oklahoma
                                                                                                    20




                                                                                                                                                                           20
                                                                  19

                                                                       19




                                                                                                                                                             20
                                                         19




                                                                                  19




                                                                                                              20

                                                                                                                     20




                                                                                                                                         20




                                                                                                                                                                     20
                                                                                                                                                      20




                                                                                                                                                                          20
                                                                                                                               20
                                                                                       20




also experienced a
series of low magnitude       Figure 9 – Total U.S Earthquakes Over the Past 15 Years
earthquakes, with one
quake on November             Though it is discussed less frequently than the fault lines in the west, the eastern part
5 registering a 5.6           of the country does have some geographic areas that face a higher risk of earthquake
magnitude, the strongest      activity, as shown in Figure 10 below. The New Madrid area centered around southeast
ever recorded in the state.   Missouri, as well as the area around Charleston, S.C. are especially vulnerable.

                                                           50˚N
                                                                                                                                            0.1
                                                                                                                               0.1



                                                                                                                                     0.05




                                                          45˚N




                                                         40˚N

                                                                                                                                                      0.35
                                                                                                                                                      0.30
                                                                                                                                                      0.25   R
                                                                                                    0.0 5




                                                                                                                                                      0.20   o
                                                                                       0.3




                                                    35˚N
                                                                                                                                                      0.16   c
                                                                                             0. 1




                                                                                                                     0.05
                                                                                   0.2




                                                                                                                                                      0.14   k
                                                                                                                                                      0.12
                                                                                                                                                      0.10   P
                                                                                                                                                      0.07   G
                                                   30˚N                                                                                               0.06   A
                                                                                                                                                      0.04
                                                                                                                                                      0.03   g
                                                                                   km                                                                 0.02
                                                                                                                                                      0.01
                                                                              0               500
                                                  25˚N                                                                                                       70˚ W
                                                                                                                                            75˚W
                                                         100˚ W                                                             80˚W
                                                                       95˚W            90˚W                 85˚ W


                              Figure 10 – Eastern U.S. Earthquake Risk




8                                                                                                                                                                                  ©2011 CoreLogic, Inc.
CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis




                                         Despite the seemingly unexpected 201 earthquake events in Virginia and Oklahoma,
                                                                                1
                                         seismic activity has typically been concentrated in the west over the past 15 years, as
                                         shown in Figure 1 This is a long-running trend reflecting the underlying geology and
                                                           1.
                                         plate tectonics of the western U.S.


                                                                                       Total U.S. Earthquakes by State (past 15 years)
                                                                       20
                                                                        18
                                          # of Earthquakes              16
                                                                       14
                                                                        12
                                                                       10
                                                                         8
                                                                         6
                                                                         4
                                                                         2
                                                                         0
                                                                              ID

                                                                                     V
                                                                                     R
                                                                                     A
                                                                                     T
                                                                                     A
                                                                                     T
                                                                                     Y
                                                                                     Z
                                                                                    O
                                                                                     L
                                                                                     R
                                                                                                                IL
                                                                                                                     IN

                                                                                                                          E
                                                                                                                              O
                                                                                                                                   M
                                                                                                                                    H
                                                                                                                                    K
                                                                                                                                  TX
                                                                                                                                        VA

                                                                                                                                              IA
                                                                                                                                             LA

                                                                                                                                                         S
                                                                                                                                                             E
                                                                                                                                                                  H
                                                                                                                                                                   Y
                                                                                                                                                                 SD
                                                                                                                                                                           TN

                                                                                                                                                                            V
                                                                                   A




                                                                                                                                                         M
                                                                                   M


                                                                                   U




                                                                                                                          M




                                                                                                                                                             N
                                                                                   A
                                                                                   W
                                                                                   W




                                                                                                                                                                 N
                                                                                                                                  O
                                                                                   O




                                                                                   A




                                                                                                                                                                           W
                                                                                   N




                                                                                                                                  O




                                                                                                                                                                 N
                                                                                   C




                                                                                   C




                                                                                                                              M
                                                                                                                                  N
                                         Figure 11 – Total U.S. Earthquakes by State Over the Past 15 Years

                                         One noteworthy finding in an analysis of historical U.S. earthquake data is that even
                                         though Virginia has only experienced two quakes and New York has faced just one in the
                                         past 15 years, both states recorded incidents that produced fairly high readings on the
                                         Richter scale. In terms of total quakes and magnitudes, however, the West still far exceeds
                                         the eastern U.S. in earthquake hazard events (see Figure 12 below).


                                                                                   Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes (past 15 years)
                                                                       8.0
                                           Magnitude (Richter Scale)




                                                                       7.0
                                                                       6.0
                                                                       5.0
                                                                       4.0
                                                                       3.0
                                                                       2.0
                                                                        1.0
                                                                       0.0
                                                                                A

                                                                                A
                                                                                V
                                                                              VA

                                                                                            T
                                                                                           O
                                                                                                ID

                                                                                                       Y
                                                                                                       Y
                                                                                                       R
                                                                                                     TX

                                                                                                              R
                                                                                                               T
                                                                                                                     IN

                                                                                                                          K
                                                                                                                               M
                                                                                                                                O
                                                                                                                                Z
                                                                                                                                       IL
                                                                                                                                        E
                                                                                                                                            IA

                                                                                                                                                 S
                                                                                                                                                      H
                                                                                                                                                      V
                                                                                                                                                       E
                                                                                                                                                     SD
                                                                                                                                                                     TN

                                                                                                                                                                            L
                                                                                                                                                                           H
                                                                                                                                                                                LA
                                                                                                                                                                          A
                                                                                                                                                 M
                                                                                          M




                                                                                                             U




                                                                                                                                      M




                                                                                                                                                     N
                                                                                                                              A
                                                                                                     W
                                                                              W




                                                                                                     N




                                                                                                                          O
                                                                                                     O


                                                                                                            A




                                                                                                                                                     W
                                                                              N




                                                                                                                                                     N




                                                                                                                                                                          O
                                                                              C




                                                                                          C




                                                                                                                              M
                                                                                                                              N




                                         Figure 12 – Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes over the Past 15 Years



                                         Implications and Projections
                                         The two instances of non-western U.S. earthquakes this year in Virginia and Oklahoma
                                         surprised many residents who previously thought earthquakes to be primarily a western
                                         U.S. phenomenon. As a result, insurance companies throughout the Northeast and parts
                                         of the Midwest that offer earthquake policies have experienced a significant increase in
                                         inquiries relating to earthquake insurance.




Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission.                                                                  9
CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis




ABOUT CORELOGIC                          Conclusion
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX)                   The largely unexpected and often record-breaking outbreak of natural hazard incidents
is a leading provider of
                                         in 201 has in many ways brought disaster preparedness and risk analysis to the center
                                               1
consumer, financial and
                                         stage. In both rural and urban areas, among homeowners, insurers, government officials
property information,
analytics and services to
                                         and even the news media, the undeniable impact of these catastrophic storms and events
business and government.                 has become a key point of discussion.
The company combines
public, contributory
                                         Extreme flooding in New England, the Midwest and along the Mississippi River
and proprietary data                     heightened awareness of flood risk for properties located outside of the designated
to develop predictive                    FEMA 100-year flood zones, putting pressure on businesses and insurance companies to
decision analytics and                   better understand flood vulnerability in areas previously identified as lower risk. Similarly,
provide business services                estimates of potential hurricane-driven storm surge damage and inland flooding have
that bring dynamic                       underscored the need for city and government representatives to revaluate the standards
insight and transparency                 in place to protect critical and strategic infrastructures across the United States.
to the markets it serves.
CoreLogic has built one                  Within the insurance industry, many insurance companies are now closely examining
of the largest and most                  their policies and parameters for coverage. In response to wind-related events in
comprehensive U.S.                       particular, insurers have begun reevaluating risk for tornado and hail damage well beyond
real estate, mortgage                    the traditional geographic focus on “tornado alley” and adjacent areas. Homeowners are
application, fraud,
                                         also showing increased interest in earthquake insurance quotes in regions not typically
and loan performance
                                         considered earthquake-prone and exploring the need for flood insurance for homes
databases and is a
recognized leading
                                         outside of FEMA flood zones.
provider of mortgage
                                         Overall, the natural disasters felt throughout the U.S. in 201 will have a lasting impact on
                                                                                                       1
and automotive credit
reporting, property
                                         the policies, procedures and safety measures in place for many homes and businesses. The
tax, valuation, flood                    effects will undoubtedly shape the nation’s response to catastrophic events in 2012, inform
determination, and                       the general understanding of risk and, hopefully, improve preparedness in years to come.
geospatial analytics and
services. More than one
million users rely on
CoreLogic to assess risk,
support underwriting,
investment and marketing
decisions, prevent fraud,
and improve business
performance in their daily
operations. The Company,
headquartered in Santa
Ana, Calif., has more than
5,000 employees globally.
For more information visit
www.corelogic.com.




FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT
corelogic.com/spatialsolutions
©2011 CoreLogic, Inc.
                                                                                                                        corelogic.com
CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are registered trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.
Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission.

BRO_Natural Hazard Risk_1112_01

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Multiple Hazard Zone
Multiple Hazard ZoneMultiple Hazard Zone
Multiple Hazard Zonemissm
 
Danny becomes hurricane with 75-mph winds
Danny becomes hurricane with 75-mph windsDanny becomes hurricane with 75-mph winds
Danny becomes hurricane with 75-mph windsupsetcapture9458
 
Effect of natural disaster on water security and scarcity (palu indonesia case)
Effect of natural disaster on water security and scarcity (palu indonesia case)Effect of natural disaster on water security and scarcity (palu indonesia case)
Effect of natural disaster on water security and scarcity (palu indonesia case)ChandraTanaka
 
Hurricane Hugo Report
Hurricane Hugo ReportHurricane Hugo Report
Hurricane Hugo ReportGreg Licamele
 
Impact of flooding on riverine communities
Impact of flooding on riverine communitiesImpact of flooding on riverine communities
Impact of flooding on riverine communitiesAlexander Decker
 
DRRR Hydrometeorological Hazards Part 1
DRRR Hydrometeorological Hazards Part 1DRRR Hydrometeorological Hazards Part 1
DRRR Hydrometeorological Hazards Part 1Dexter Cargullo
 
Unit ii global-hazard-trends
Unit ii   global-hazard-trendsUnit ii   global-hazard-trends
Unit ii global-hazard-trendsjagadish108
 
Tectonic Hazards Global Trends Overview
Tectonic Hazards Global Trends OverviewTectonic Hazards Global Trends Overview
Tectonic Hazards Global Trends Overviewdouglasgreig
 
Ces semester project 1 final
Ces semester project 1 finalCes semester project 1 final
Ces semester project 1 finalDiane Sugrue
 
IRJET- Flood Risk Assessment in Uyo Urban, Nigeria using Geospatial Tools
IRJET- Flood Risk Assessment in Uyo Urban, Nigeria using Geospatial ToolsIRJET- Flood Risk Assessment in Uyo Urban, Nigeria using Geospatial Tools
IRJET- Flood Risk Assessment in Uyo Urban, Nigeria using Geospatial ToolsIRJET Journal
 
DRRR - Hydrometeorological Hazards part 2
DRRR - Hydrometeorological Hazards part 2DRRR - Hydrometeorological Hazards part 2
DRRR - Hydrometeorological Hazards part 2Dexter Cargullo
 
Social issues after disaster (2)
Social issues after disaster (2)Social issues after disaster (2)
Social issues after disaster (2)saira javeed
 
Natural Hazard in Bangladesh
Natural Hazard in BangladeshNatural Hazard in Bangladesh
Natural Hazard in BangladeshMinhaz Hasan
 
Disaster impacts
Disaster impactsDisaster impacts
Disaster impactsself
 

Was ist angesagt? (18)

Multiple Hazard Zone
Multiple Hazard ZoneMultiple Hazard Zone
Multiple Hazard Zone
 
Danny becomes hurricane with 75-mph winds
Danny becomes hurricane with 75-mph windsDanny becomes hurricane with 75-mph winds
Danny becomes hurricane with 75-mph winds
 
“Natural Disaster, its causes & effects.”
“Natural Disaster, its causes & effects.”“Natural Disaster, its causes & effects.”
“Natural Disaster, its causes & effects.”
 
Effect of natural disaster on water security and scarcity (palu indonesia case)
Effect of natural disaster on water security and scarcity (palu indonesia case)Effect of natural disaster on water security and scarcity (palu indonesia case)
Effect of natural disaster on water security and scarcity (palu indonesia case)
 
Hurricane Hugo Report
Hurricane Hugo ReportHurricane Hugo Report
Hurricane Hugo Report
 
Impact of flooding on riverine communities
Impact of flooding on riverine communitiesImpact of flooding on riverine communities
Impact of flooding on riverine communities
 
DRRR Hydrometeorological Hazards Part 1
DRRR Hydrometeorological Hazards Part 1DRRR Hydrometeorological Hazards Part 1
DRRR Hydrometeorological Hazards Part 1
 
Unit ii global-hazard-trends
Unit ii   global-hazard-trendsUnit ii   global-hazard-trends
Unit ii global-hazard-trends
 
Tectonic Hazards Global Trends Overview
Tectonic Hazards Global Trends OverviewTectonic Hazards Global Trends Overview
Tectonic Hazards Global Trends Overview
 
Ces semester project 1 final
Ces semester project 1 finalCes semester project 1 final
Ces semester project 1 final
 
IRJET- Flood Risk Assessment in Uyo Urban, Nigeria using Geospatial Tools
IRJET- Flood Risk Assessment in Uyo Urban, Nigeria using Geospatial ToolsIRJET- Flood Risk Assessment in Uyo Urban, Nigeria using Geospatial Tools
IRJET- Flood Risk Assessment in Uyo Urban, Nigeria using Geospatial Tools
 
DRRR - Hydrometeorological Hazards part 2
DRRR - Hydrometeorological Hazards part 2DRRR - Hydrometeorological Hazards part 2
DRRR - Hydrometeorological Hazards part 2
 
Social issues after disaster (2)
Social issues after disaster (2)Social issues after disaster (2)
Social issues after disaster (2)
 
Natural Hazard in Bangladesh
Natural Hazard in BangladeshNatural Hazard in Bangladesh
Natural Hazard in Bangladesh
 
Dmm unit
Dmm unitDmm unit
Dmm unit
 
Floods and Tsunamis: medical and health impacts
Floods and Tsunamis: medical and health impactsFloods and Tsunamis: medical and health impacts
Floods and Tsunamis: medical and health impacts
 
Major of Disasters in Bangladesh
Major of Disasters in Bangladesh Major of Disasters in Bangladesh
Major of Disasters in Bangladesh
 
Disaster impacts
Disaster impactsDisaster impacts
Disaster impacts
 

Ähnlich wie 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis

Climate Change & Disaster Preparedness by Hospicio Conanan
Climate Change & Disaster Preparedness by Hospicio ConananClimate Change & Disaster Preparedness by Hospicio Conanan
Climate Change & Disaster Preparedness by Hospicio ConananMindanao Youth for Peace
 
Ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11
Ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11Ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11
Ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11riseagrant
 
DM - T.Rajamanikandan (1).pdf
DM - T.Rajamanikandan (1).pdfDM - T.Rajamanikandan (1).pdf
DM - T.Rajamanikandan (1).pdfrajamanikandan22
 
Global Hazards Patterns
Global Hazards PatternsGlobal Hazards Patterns
Global Hazards Patternstotal
 
Emergency Notification System
Emergency Notification SystemEmergency Notification System
Emergency Notification Systemsajjadhusain
 
Top 10 Actions a CIO Can Take to Prepare for a Hurricane
Top 10 Actions a CIO Can Take to Prepare for a HurricaneTop 10 Actions a CIO Can Take to Prepare for a Hurricane
Top 10 Actions a CIO Can Take to Prepare for a HurricaneBillatDell
 
An Interpretation of the Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains Drought
An Interpretation of the  Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains DroughtAn Interpretation of the  Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains Drought
An Interpretation of the Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains Droughtclimate central
 
Disaster and Disaster RIsk_Quarter 1 - MOdule 2
Disaster and Disaster RIsk_Quarter 1 - MOdule 2Disaster and Disaster RIsk_Quarter 1 - MOdule 2
Disaster and Disaster RIsk_Quarter 1 - MOdule 2HuggoOtters
 
PHS WHarrod Hurricane Floyd
PHS WHarrod Hurricane FloydPHS WHarrod Hurricane Floyd
PHS WHarrod Hurricane FloydMissPowerPHS
 
Global Hazards
Global HazardsGlobal Hazards
Global Hazardstotal
 
Natural disasters
Natural  disastersNatural  disasters
Natural disastersTeju Kotti
 
Severe Canadian Weather
Severe Canadian WeatherSevere Canadian Weather
Severe Canadian Weathercconrad
 
Humanitarian Impacts Of Climate Change In East Africa Region, 2009
Humanitarian Impacts Of Climate Change In East Africa Region, 2009Humanitarian Impacts Of Climate Change In East Africa Region, 2009
Humanitarian Impacts Of Climate Change In East Africa Region, 2009Charles Ehrhart
 
A natural disaster sasha
A natural disaster sashaA natural disaster sasha
A natural disaster sashaparrym
 

Ähnlich wie 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis (20)

Climate Change & Disaster Preparedness by Hospicio Conanan
Climate Change & Disaster Preparedness by Hospicio ConananClimate Change & Disaster Preparedness by Hospicio Conanan
Climate Change & Disaster Preparedness by Hospicio Conanan
 
Ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11
Ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11Ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11
Ginis extreme weather & climate change 11.18.11
 
DM - T.Rajamanikandan (1).pdf
DM - T.Rajamanikandan (1).pdfDM - T.Rajamanikandan (1).pdf
DM - T.Rajamanikandan (1).pdf
 
Global Hazards Patterns
Global Hazards PatternsGlobal Hazards Patterns
Global Hazards Patterns
 
Emergency Notification System
Emergency Notification SystemEmergency Notification System
Emergency Notification System
 
Disasters
DisastersDisasters
Disasters
 
Disasters
DisastersDisasters
Disasters
 
Disasters
DisastersDisasters
Disasters
 
Top 10 Actions a CIO Can Take to Prepare for a Hurricane
Top 10 Actions a CIO Can Take to Prepare for a HurricaneTop 10 Actions a CIO Can Take to Prepare for a Hurricane
Top 10 Actions a CIO Can Take to Prepare for a Hurricane
 
An Interpretation of the Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains Drought
An Interpretation of the  Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains DroughtAn Interpretation of the  Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains Drought
An Interpretation of the Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains Drought
 
The 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season
The 2012 Gulf Hurricane SeasonThe 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season
The 2012 Gulf Hurricane Season
 
Disaster and Disaster RIsk_Quarter 1 - MOdule 2
Disaster and Disaster RIsk_Quarter 1 - MOdule 2Disaster and Disaster RIsk_Quarter 1 - MOdule 2
Disaster and Disaster RIsk_Quarter 1 - MOdule 2
 
PHS WHarrod Hurricane Floyd
PHS WHarrod Hurricane FloydPHS WHarrod Hurricane Floyd
PHS WHarrod Hurricane Floyd
 
Global Hazards
Global HazardsGlobal Hazards
Global Hazards
 
Natural disasters
Natural  disastersNatural  disasters
Natural disasters
 
Severe Canadian Weather
Severe Canadian WeatherSevere Canadian Weather
Severe Canadian Weather
 
Final Project
Final ProjectFinal Project
Final Project
 
Humanitarian Impacts Of Climate Change In East Africa Region, 2009
Humanitarian Impacts Of Climate Change In East Africa Region, 2009Humanitarian Impacts Of Climate Change In East Africa Region, 2009
Humanitarian Impacts Of Climate Change In East Africa Region, 2009
 
Beverly Wright: Justice and equity in the face of climate change
Beverly Wright: Justice and equity in the face of climate changeBeverly Wright: Justice and equity in the face of climate change
Beverly Wright: Justice and equity in the face of climate change
 
A natural disaster sasha
A natural disaster sashaA natural disaster sasha
A natural disaster sasha
 

2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis

  • 1. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis Howard Botts, PhD Wei Du, PhD Brady Foust, PhD Thomas Jeffery, PhD
  • 2. Executive Summary 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis As it has been noted by numerous scientists, risk analysts and other forecasters, 201 1 proved to be a record-breaking year for natural catastrophes in the United States and around the world. Hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, earthquakes and various flooding events caused billions of dollars in property damage, put disaster readiness plans and emergency responders to the test in major U.S. urban areas, and resulted in a significant number of lost lives across the country. Now, in addition to reviewing the immediate structural, geographic and financial impact of the past year’s catastrophic events, it’s crucial to consider notable changes in natural hazard incidents as part of a longer-term perspective and evaluate the implications of these trends. One of the most noteworthy statistics to emerge from this annual natural hazard review is that 201 was the most expensive and the deadliest hurricane season for the U.S. since 1 2008. Though only three named Atlantic storms made landfall, they caused at least a combined $8 billion in damage, primarily from flooding. In addition, the 201 tornado 1 season was the third most active since 1980. The 1,559 storms to date this year resulted in the deaths of 552 people, which amount to the combined total number of casualties over the previous ten years. While the 201 wildfire season continued the trend of having fewer but larger wildfires, 1 there was a significant geographic shift in home losses over the past year from California, which had a cooler and wetter-than-average fire season, to the drought-affected states of Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma. In fact, total burned wildfire acreage in California was down 90 percent in 2010-201 compared to 2007-2008. At the same time, the Wallow 1 fire in Arizona burned 469,000 acres and was the largest fire in the state’s history. Also important to note is that two non-western U.S. earthquakes occurred this year in Virginia and Oklahoma – events that startled many residents who believed earthquakes to be strictly a far west U.S. phenomenon. Though in reality earthquake activity in 2011 mirrored the long-running trend of quake concentration in the western U.S., where underlying geology and plate tectonics generate a more active seismic zone, the two unexpected events in the Midwest and Northeast caused a considerable stir among homeowners, insurers and many others affected by the quakes. The CoreLogic Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis provides an overview of the most significant catastrophic natural hazard events that took place in 201 as well as a 1, brief analysis of potential risk in the coming year and the implications of unexpected changes in natural hazard frequency, intensity and geographic patterns.
  • 3. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis HURRICANES Year in Review This year was the most expensive and deadliest hurricane season since 2008. While only SNAPSHOT three of the 18 named Atlantic Ocean storms struck the U.S. (Hurricane Irene, Tropical While the direct impact Storm Lee and Tropical Storm Don), those storms resulted in at least $8 billion in on New York City from damage and 45 people killed. Much of the property damage associated with the storms Hurricane Irene (a was a result of flooding from intense rainfall as opposed to wind or storm surge flooding. Category 1 hurricane) Overall, 201 was the seventh most active hurricane season to date in terms of property 1 was ultimately minimal, and life losses since tracking began in 1851. there are some important lessons to be learned from Hurricane irene: The largest and most destructive storm of 201 Hurricane Irene, 1, this event. The evacuation made landfall over coastal North Carolina on August 27. The storm tracked northward order, affecting 370,000 along the Mid-Atlantic coast (moving over Virginia, Washington, D.C., Maryland, New residents, suggests the Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Vermont) causing city lacks confidence torrential rainfall and flooding across much of the northeastern U.S. Especially hard hit in the flood control infrastructure. In fact, were New York, New Jersey and Vermont, which experienced extensive flood damage. New York City does not According to the National Climatic Data Center, the total cost of the hurricane was more have sufficient capacity than $7.3 billion, of which the associated flood damage was about $2 billion. Comparing to defend itself from the flood damage over the past several years with the flood damage from Hurricane Irene (see storm surge associated Figure 1), the flood loss from this single hurricane ranks as the second most expensive in with catastrophic this region. hurricane events, which would be a storm Annual Flood Damage in Northeast and Hurricane Irene classified as Category 2 or 5 greater. With major tunnel and subway entrances only four feet above sea level, even a modest 4 hurricane-driven storm surge would result in Hurricane Irene Flood Loss in $billions NC, VA, MD, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT significant inundation and could easily lead to billions 3 in economic loss. 2 1 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Water Year Figure 1 - Comparison of Historical Flood Losses and Irene (1999 hurricane flood losses were the result of Hurricane Floyd, with an estimated $4.5 billion in damages and 56 people killed.) Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission. 1
  • 4. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis Tropical STorm lee: On the heels of Hurricane Irene, Tropical Storm Lee developed from a broad tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico on September 1, 201 The1. storm was both large and slow moving, and because of these characteristics, drove heavy rainfall over southern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. The storm then moved north toward the Mid-Atlantic U.S. and unleashed a second outpouring of intense precipitation over Pennsylvania and New York. Figure 2 shows the rainfall map for Tropical Storm Lee, produced by NASA. The satellite imagery clearly shows the five states listed above receiving the greatest amounts of precipitation, with some locations in Pennsylvania and New York accumulating 12 inches of rainfall. Flooding associated with the heavy Tropical Storm Lee precipitation caused significant property damage in the affected areas, estimated to be more than $1 billion. Implications and Projections Given the extent of property damage left in the wake of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee, particularly in what might be considered unlikely and underprepared regions of Figure 2 – Precipitation Map the U.S., many risk experts from Tropical Storm Lee feel it’s time to rethink national flood policies around the country and especially in major metropolitan hubs like New York City. There are several key lessons to be taken away from the impact of Tropical Storm Lee, including: ► Large-sized and slow-moving tropical storms originating from the Gulf of Mexico can carry significant precipitation and lead to severe flooding and property damage in the Northeast. ► Short-time intervals between two severe weather systems can exacerbate flooding. Just one week prior to Tropical Storm Lee, Hurricane Irene had soaked the northeastern region of the country. Tropical Storm Lee then poured huge amounts of water on top of the already saturated Northeast, resulting in elevated levels of flooding. ► Property loss associated with flooding from Tropical Storm Lee for the five principal states affected was ranked as the fifth highest based on records over the past 16 years. Even though Lee was not an extreme event, conditions were present that combined to result in extensive damage and destruction. 2 ©2011 CoreLogic, Inc.
  • 5. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis FLOODING Year in Review SNAPSHOT In 201 there were a number of climate disaster events across the U.S. that each resulted 1, The U.S. Army Corps of in flood losses exceeding $1 billion, according to data from the National Climate Data Engineers opened the Center (NCDC): Morganza spillway in ► Tropical Storm Lee, September 201 caused an estimated $1 billion in flood 1, Louisiana on May 14, 2011 damage, with particularly severe impact on the states of Pennsylvania and New York. to divert record-high Mississippi River water ► Hurricane Irene, August 201 caused an estimated $2 billion in flood damage (out 1, levels away from densely of $7.3 billion in total damage). populated metro areas like Baton Rouge and ► In the summer of 201 the melting of an above-average snowpack across the 1, New Orleans. The spillway northern Rocky Mountains combined with abnormally high precipitation caused was intended to relieve the Missouri and Souris rivers to swell beyond their banks across the upper pressure on downstream Midwest. The resulting flooding caused an estimated $2 billion in losses. levees, sparing hundreds of thousands of homes ► In the spring and summer of 201 record-breaking rainfall in the Ohio Valley (nearly 1, as well as numerous oil 300 percent over normal precipitation amounts) combined with melting snowpack refineries and chemical caused historical flooding along the Mississippi River and its tributaries. Flood loss plants along the estimates from the Mississippi River inundation are estimated to be $4 billion. Mississippi River. CoreLogic analysis at the time showed that Moving Average Trend Analysis of U.S. Flood Losses many homes in otherwise $50.00 low-risk zones were suddenly in the path of $45.00 U.S. Flood Loss in $billions floodwaters and that a Actual Flood Losses $40.00 total of 21,272 homes were Moving Average Trend of Flood Losses at risk of being fully or $35.00 partially inundated by the $30.00 floodwaters flowing down from the Atchafalaya $25.00 Basin. Of the more than 20,000 homes located $20.00 in the overall potential $15.00 Atchafalaya flood area, 4,528 homes are located $10.00 outside of Federal Emergency Management $5.00 Agency (FEMA) defined $0.00 flood zones and are, 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 therefore, not required to maintain flood Water Year insurance policies. Figure 3 – U.S. Flood Loss Trend Analysis Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission. 3
  • 6. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis Implications and Projections Based on flood losses from the various catastrophic events that occurred in 2011, flooding and storm events recorded in the NCDC climate event database and the consideration of other related factors, CoreLogic estimates the 201 U.S. flood-related 1 losses at approximately $10.67 billion. Combining this 201 estimation with more than 100 years’ historical data reveals a 1 fluctuating trend in flood losses with a cyclical climate pattern over time. Figure 3 illustrates both the characteristics of recorded U.S. flood losses since 1900 and a projected trend curve, which aligns directly with the historical data. Fluctuation of flood loss trend data lends itself to a number of forecasts for the possible magnitude of national flood loss in 2012: ► Based on the trend pattern, 2012 should not be an extreme flood year. In fact, 2012 is the seventh year after the 2005 catastrophic event Hurricane Katrina, and according to the flood loss trend, there should be several more years before the next extreme flood loss year. ► As demonstrated in Figure 3, the flood loss trend curve at 201 is the upward side 1 of a small peak (the second peak after an extreme year), therefore the curve in 2012 should potentially continue downhill. In other words, the U.S. flood loss level in 2012 should be lower than the loss level in 2011. ► By using a loss reduction ratio from two previous second peaks after extreme years (1972 and 1993), and considering the forecast for the next 20-year average flood loss, the projected U.S. flood loss in 2012 is approximately $3.53 billion. ► Though historical trend pattern analysis suggests that U.S. flood loss for 2012 should not be extreme, CoreLogic data suggests hurricanes, tropical storms, and tsunamis may affect flood totals significantly. Important to note is that the floods of 201 have heightened awareness of flood risk 1 outside of the FEMA 100-year flood zones and will put pressure on businesses and insurance companies to develop a better understanding of flood-risk vulnerability. Hurricane storm surge potential and inland flooding this year have also emphasized the need to raise the current flood protection standard for the critical and strategic infrastructures in the U.S. 4 ©2011 CoreLogic, Inc.
  • 7. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis TORNADOES Year in Review As of December 1, a total of 1,559 confirmed tornadoes have been reported in the U. S., SNAPSHOT making 201 the third most active tornado season since 1980 (see Figure 4 below). The 1 The “2011 Super Outbreak” number of tornadoes in 201 was also significantly above the yearly average of 1,125 1 occurred between April (1980 - 2010). In particular, April represented a huge anomaly with 762 confirmed 25 and April 28, and has touchdowns, 200 over the previous record. been identified as the largest tornado outbreak ever recorded with 336 Tornadoes by Year confirmed tornadoes spread across the 2,000 South, Midwest and the 1,800 Northeast. In addition, 1,600 April 27 was the single 1,400 deadliest day since 1925, with 324 tornado- 1,200 related deaths. The most 1,000 destructive storm of the 800 outbreak, an EF5 tornado, struck Tuscaloosa, Ala., 600 destroyed a significant 400 part of the town and 200 resulted in 51 deaths. 0 Insured loss estimates 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 0 02 4 6 8 10 0 0 0 0 for the four-day outbreak 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 19 19 20 19 20 20 20 range from $3.5 to $5 billion, with the Tuscaloosa Figure 4 – Confirmed U.S. Tornadoes by Year damage alone estimated in excess of $2 billion. What really set the 201 tornado season apart from previous years was the number of 1 Not quite a month later, casualties, with a total of 552 as of December 1. The total number of deaths in 201 1 on May 22, another EF5 alone is equal to the previous ten years of tornado-related deaths combined. Given that tornado struck Joplin, we live in the era of Doppler radar, which has lead to earlier and more accurate tornado Mo., plowing a mile-wide warnings, this number is exceptionally extraordinary. The direct urban hits by tornadoes path directly through in Tuscaloosa, Ala. and Joplin, Mo. greatly contributed to the exceedingly high number the southern part of the city, killing 161 people of casualties. and causing tremendous damage to the city. The most recent insurance Implications and Projections payout estimates for the In most years, with the exception of large catastrophe losses from earthquakes or Joplin tornado are in hurricanes, wind and hail damage from cyclonic storms are major contributors to excess of $2.2 billion. insurance claim losses. In the past, companies were confident they had an accurate underwriting knowledge of the areas, such as “tornado alley,” that resulted in the greatest claims. During the past few years, however, property, casualty and commercial insurers have begun to realize they need to carefully reevaluate this perception. For many companies, the result of actuarial analysis of claims loss against granular damaging winds and hail geospatial databases has led to a considerable expansion of areas now considered higher risk for wind and hail claims loss. Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission. 5
  • 8. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis WILDFIRE Year in Review SNAPSHOT The 201 wildfire season in the U.S. is indicative of the dynamic variability of wildfire 1 activity. Wildfire statistics through October 201 parallel the overall trend of fewer fires 1 Though 2011 is close to the ten-year maximum in that are larger in size (see Figures 5 and 6 below). As of October, the U.S. has experienced wildfire acreage burned the fifth most acreage burned and the eighth highest number of fires, when compared for the country, there with the preceding ten-year period. If compared with just the preceding five years, 201 1 is one unusual factor would be ranked lowest in number of fires and fourth in terms of acres burned. that is not apparent in the combined statistics. Much of the wildfire activity in 201 shifted to southwestern states undergoing a 1 California is often one prolonged and significant drought. In late May, the largest fire in Arizona history, the of the leading states in Wallow Fire, forced the evacuation of thousands of residents and burned more than both wildfire activity and 469,000 acres. Texas and Oklahoma also experienced a record number of wildfires, insurance claims due to with the Bastrop fire in Texas alone resulting in more than 1,600 homes and structures wildfire-related property destroyed and 34,000 acres burned. loss, topping one million acres and billions of dollars of damage in both 2007 and 2008. U.S. Wildfire Acres However, the statistics for 12 2010 and 2011 indicate a greater than 90 percent 10 Millions of Acres reduction in acreage consumed by wildfires 8 when compared with the 2007-2008 period. 6 From January through mid-November 2011, 4 California wildfires totaled just 51,379 acres – less 2 than half the historically 0 low amount of 108,742 acres in 2010 (see Figure 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 7). An abnormally wet winter and cool summer in Figure 5 – Total U.S. Wildfire Acres Burned 2001 - 2011 parts of the western U.S., including California, are primarily responsible for this significant reduction in wildfire acreage. U.S. Wildfires 12 10 Thousands of Fires 8 6 4 2 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 6 – Total Number of U.S. Wildfires 2001 – 2011 6 ©2011 CoreLogic, Inc.
  • 9. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis Implications and Projections California Wildfire Acres A review of past fire seasons indicates 1600 that wildfire activity often follows a cyclical pattern of increase and decrease 1400 Thousands of Acres due to changing seasonal weather 1200 patterns. Colder and wetter weather 1000 in areas prone to wildfires is often the precursor to a dramatic increase 800 in the number and size of wildfires in 600 subsequent years, as a result of greater 400 than normal vegetation growth during times of increased precipitation. It 200 would not be unreasonable to expect 0 parts of California to see a similar trend 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 in the next few years, with wildfire acreage increasing dramatically from the current historic lows to higher, more Figure 7 – California Wildfire Acres Burned 2006 - 2011 typical levels. In addition, persistent and intensifying drought conditions are forecast for an even larger section of the U.S. for the coming year, extending in a continuous band from Arizona to South Carolina and as far north as Kansas and Missouri. Much of the increase in wildfire activity for 201 in Texas, Arizona and New Mexico was the result of the persistent 1 drought conditions in those areas (see Figure 8 below), which is expected to intensify and spread in the early part of 2012. U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought Tendency During the Valid Period Valid November 17, 2011 - February 29, 2012 Released November 17, 2011 Some Improvement Improvement Some Improvement Improvement Development Development KEY: Persistence Drought to persist or No Drought intensify Posted/Predicted Drought ongoing, some Depicts large-scale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided improvement by short- and long-range statistical and dynamical forecasts. Short-term events Drought likely to improve, -- such as individual storms -- cannot be accurately forecast more than a few days in advance. impacts ease Use caution for applications -- such as crops -- that can be affected by such events. "Ongoing" drought areas are approximated from the Drought Monitor (D1 to D4 intensity). Drought development For weekly drought updates, see the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. NOTE: the green improvement likely areas imply at least a 1-category improvement in the Drought Monitor intensity levels, but do not necessarily imply drought elimination. Figure 8 – U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission. 7
  • 10. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis EARTHQUAKES Year in Review SNAPSHOT This year has been an unusual year in terms of the frequency of larger earthquakes, or quakes registering as greater than 2.8 on the Richter Scale (see Figure 9 below), as was The 5.8 magnitude earthquake that hit central 2010. As the graph below indicates, 2010 and 201 have seen more than double the 1 Virginia and was felt number of earthquakes compared to the previous 14 years. The contiguous U. S. generally throughout the eastern averages around ten major quakes per year. seaboard on August 23, 2011 was unusual, but not unprecedented. The quake Total U.S. Earthquakes (past 15 years) was felt from as far north 30 as Quebec to as far south as Georgia and caused 25 # of Earthquakes damage to a number of buildings in the region. 20 Though thankfully no lives were lost as a result 15 of the Virginia quake, the tremors wreaked 10 havoc on several iconic local structures, namely 5 the National Cathedral and the Washington 0 Monument. In early 96 97 98 99 0 1 02 03 4 5 6 07 8 9 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 0 November, Oklahoma 20 20 19 19 20 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 also experienced a series of low magnitude Figure 9 – Total U.S Earthquakes Over the Past 15 Years earthquakes, with one quake on November Though it is discussed less frequently than the fault lines in the west, the eastern part 5 registering a 5.6 of the country does have some geographic areas that face a higher risk of earthquake magnitude, the strongest activity, as shown in Figure 10 below. The New Madrid area centered around southeast ever recorded in the state. Missouri, as well as the area around Charleston, S.C. are especially vulnerable. 50˚N 0.1 0.1 0.05 45˚N 40˚N 0.35 0.30 0.25 R 0.0 5 0.20 o 0.3 35˚N 0.16 c 0. 1 0.05 0.2 0.14 k 0.12 0.10 P 0.07 G 30˚N 0.06 A 0.04 0.03 g km 0.02 0.01 0 500 25˚N 70˚ W 75˚W 100˚ W 80˚W 95˚W 90˚W 85˚ W Figure 10 – Eastern U.S. Earthquake Risk 8 ©2011 CoreLogic, Inc.
  • 11. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis Despite the seemingly unexpected 201 earthquake events in Virginia and Oklahoma, 1 seismic activity has typically been concentrated in the west over the past 15 years, as shown in Figure 1 This is a long-running trend reflecting the underlying geology and 1. plate tectonics of the western U.S. Total U.S. Earthquakes by State (past 15 years) 20 18 # of Earthquakes 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 ID V R A T A T Y Z O L R IL IN E O M H K TX VA IA LA S E H Y SD TN V A M M U M N A W W N O O A W N O N C C M N Figure 11 – Total U.S. Earthquakes by State Over the Past 15 Years One noteworthy finding in an analysis of historical U.S. earthquake data is that even though Virginia has only experienced two quakes and New York has faced just one in the past 15 years, both states recorded incidents that produced fairly high readings on the Richter scale. In terms of total quakes and magnitudes, however, the West still far exceeds the eastern U.S. in earthquake hazard events (see Figure 12 below). Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes (past 15 years) 8.0 Magnitude (Richter Scale) 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 A A V VA T O ID Y Y R TX R T IN K M O Z IL E IA S H V E SD TN L H LA A M M U M N A W W N O O A W N N O C C M N Figure 12 – Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes over the Past 15 Years Implications and Projections The two instances of non-western U.S. earthquakes this year in Virginia and Oklahoma surprised many residents who previously thought earthquakes to be primarily a western U.S. phenomenon. As a result, insurance companies throughout the Northeast and parts of the Midwest that offer earthquake policies have experienced a significant increase in inquiries relating to earthquake insurance. Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission. 9
  • 12. CoreLogic® 2011 Natural Hazard Risk Summary and Analysis ABOUT CORELOGIC Conclusion CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) The largely unexpected and often record-breaking outbreak of natural hazard incidents is a leading provider of in 201 has in many ways brought disaster preparedness and risk analysis to the center 1 consumer, financial and stage. In both rural and urban areas, among homeowners, insurers, government officials property information, analytics and services to and even the news media, the undeniable impact of these catastrophic storms and events business and government. has become a key point of discussion. The company combines public, contributory Extreme flooding in New England, the Midwest and along the Mississippi River and proprietary data heightened awareness of flood risk for properties located outside of the designated to develop predictive FEMA 100-year flood zones, putting pressure on businesses and insurance companies to decision analytics and better understand flood vulnerability in areas previously identified as lower risk. Similarly, provide business services estimates of potential hurricane-driven storm surge damage and inland flooding have that bring dynamic underscored the need for city and government representatives to revaluate the standards insight and transparency in place to protect critical and strategic infrastructures across the United States. to the markets it serves. CoreLogic has built one Within the insurance industry, many insurance companies are now closely examining of the largest and most their policies and parameters for coverage. In response to wind-related events in comprehensive U.S. particular, insurers have begun reevaluating risk for tornado and hail damage well beyond real estate, mortgage the traditional geographic focus on “tornado alley” and adjacent areas. Homeowners are application, fraud, also showing increased interest in earthquake insurance quotes in regions not typically and loan performance considered earthquake-prone and exploring the need for flood insurance for homes databases and is a recognized leading outside of FEMA flood zones. provider of mortgage Overall, the natural disasters felt throughout the U.S. in 201 will have a lasting impact on 1 and automotive credit reporting, property the policies, procedures and safety measures in place for many homes and businesses. The tax, valuation, flood effects will undoubtedly shape the nation’s response to catastrophic events in 2012, inform determination, and the general understanding of risk and, hopefully, improve preparedness in years to come. geospatial analytics and services. More than one million users rely on CoreLogic to assess risk, support underwriting, investment and marketing decisions, prevent fraud, and improve business performance in their daily operations. The Company, headquartered in Santa Ana, Calif., has more than 5,000 employees globally. For more information visit www.corelogic.com. FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE VISIT corelogic.com/spatialsolutions ©2011 CoreLogic, Inc. corelogic.com CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are registered trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. Proprietary and confidential. This material may not be reproduced in any form without expressed written permission. BRO_Natural Hazard Risk_1112_01