Presentation by Chan Chin Yee, Nhuong Tran, Shanali Pethiyagoda, Charles Crissman, Timothy Sulser and Michael Phillips

1. Prospects and challenges of fish for food
security in Africa
Chin Yee Chan, Nhuong Tran, Shanali Pethiyagoda, Charles C. Crissman, Timothy B. Sulser, Michael J. Phillips

2. Prospects and challenges of fish for food
security in Africa
1. Highlights
2. Introduction
3. Objectives
4. Methodology
5. Key findings
6. Limitations
7. Possible future developments
Chan CY, Tran N, Pethiyagoda S, Crissman CC, Sulser TB, Phillips MJ. 2019. Prospects
and challenges of fish for food security in Africa. Glob. Food Secur. 20:17–25.

3. 1. Highlights
• Rapid population and income growth in Africa
is fueling rising demand for fish
• Foresight modeling highlights the potential of
African aquaculture for food security
• Investment in sustainable African aquaculture
can help reduce reliance on imports
• Improved seafood trade policies are
necessary to meet increasing demand in Africa
• African capacity for fisheries and aquaculture
management are crucial for the sector

4. 2. Introduction: Food security
• Africa has the highest proportion of undernourished people
• Quarter of sub-Saharan Africans is undernourished
• Vitamin A deficiency in children, iron deficiency in women in
sub-Saharan Africa highest globally

5. 2. Introduction: Prospects of fish
Africa has the fastest population growth, with increasing
food demand.

6. 2. Introduction: Prospects of fish
Africa has the lowest per capita fish consumption, but fish
provides 19% of animal protein.
Countries Population
(million)
Undernourished
(%)
Fish
consumption
(kg/person/year)
Fish protein
(g/person/day)
Animal
protein
(g/person/day)
Fish/animal
protein (%)
Africa 995.4 19.8 10.8 3.1 16.1 19.3
Asia 4,262.8 12.4 21.4 5.8 26.6 21.9
World 6,997.3 11.0 19.0 5.2 32.1 16.2

7. 2. Introduction: Prospects of fish
• Africa’s fish sector supports livelihoods for 12.3 million people,
25% of whom are women
• Contributes 6% of agriculture growth and 1.3% of total GDP

8. 2. Introduction: Challenges of fish
Constraints to stronger aquaculture growth
•Lack of improved fish breeds, feeds, technical
training
•Weak research capacity
•Inadequate human and financial resources
•Poor market infrastructure and access
Constraints to capture fisheries growth
•Depleted fish stocks
•Weak governance and regulation
•Fish postharvest losses and waste
•Underdeveloped cold chains

9. 2. Introduction: Challenges of fish
African low per capita fish consumption

10. 2. Introduction: Challenges of fish
In 2016
•2.5% global aquaculture
production
•10.2% global capture
fisheries production
African low fish production

11. 2. Introduction: Challenges of fish
African fish supply deficit
A. Tonnage deficit B. Value surplus

12. 3. Objectives
• Examine the dynamic interaction of Africa’s
fish production and trade in response to
surging demand, with an emphasis on
scenarios of strong capital investment in
aquaculture development to address the
continent-wide food and nutrition insecurity
issue
• Highlight prospects and challenges faced
by Africa’s fish sector and inform dialogue
about sector policies and investment
priorities

13. Fish supply/demand projections at global and
regional level
Medium- to long-term projections
•International Model for Policy Analysis of
Agriculture Commodities and Trade (IMPACT)
•AgLINK-COSIMO model (OECD/FAO)
•Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM)
Short-term projection
•Econometric model for short-term projection (FAO)
4. Methodology: Fish foresight modeling

14. 4. Methodology: IMPACT model
Fish to 2020
(2003)
Fish to 2030
(2013)
Fish to 2050 (2017)

15. 4. Methodology: Africa stakeholder
consultation workshop
Participants: Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa,
Tanzania, Zambia
Africa Aquaculture Research and Training Center, Abassa,
Egypt

16. 4. Methodology: Alternative scenarios
justification
The three alternative scenarios address the key challenges
observed in Africa’s fish sector:
1.Fish supply deficit
2.Low per capita fish consumption
3.Low contribution of aquaculture to
total fish output in sub-Saharan Africa

17. 4. Methodology: Scenarios description
Scenarios Description
Business as usual
(BAU)
Baseline reflects historical trends
High aquaculture
growth
(HiAq)
Substantially increased investment in the aquaculture industry
continent-wide
Selected countries – Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia
Species are tilapia, pangasius and other catfish, and mullet
High aquaculture
and GDP growth
(HiAqGDP)
HiAq plus the impact of increased income to reflect a
medium-scale scenario of GDP growth in Africa of 4.8% per
year
High tilapia
aquaculture growth
(HiTilapia)
All African countries currently engaged in tilapia aquaculture
will achieve the productivity of Egypt

18. 5. Key findings: Business as usual
Item
Year Average annual growth
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (2015–2030, %) (2030–2050, %)
Million metric tons
Aquaculture production 1.82 2.11 2.31 2.44 2.57 2.68 2.77 2.86 2.0 0.8
Tilapia 1.08 1.30 1.45 1.53 1.61 1.68 1.73 1.78 2.4 0.7
Pangasius and other catfish 0.31 0.33 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.40 0.41 0.9 0.7
Mullet 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 1.1 0.4
Carp 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.7 0.7
Others 0.19 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.30 0.32 0.35 0.37 2.6 1.5
Capture fisheries production 8.71 8.85 8.95 9.03 9.07 9.12 9.16 9.21 0.2 0.1
Pelagics 3.54 3.54 3.54 3.54 3.54 3.54 3.54 3.54 0.0 0.0
Freshwater and diadromous 2.15 2.17 2.19 2.20 2.20 2.21 2.22 2.22 0.1 0.1
Major demersals 1.09 1.16 1.20 1.24 1.26 1.28 1.31 1.33 0.9 0.3
Others 1.93 1.98 2.01 2.05 2.06 2.08 2.10 2.12 0.4 0.2
Net trade -2.75 -3.46 -4.11 -4.96 -5.80 -6.95 -8.54 -10.59 4.0 3.9
Total availability 13.28 14.43 15.37 16.43 17.44 18.74 20.48 22.66 1.4 1.6
Billion
Africa population 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.2
Kg/person/year
Per capita consumption 10.0 9.5 8.9 8.5 8.0 7.7 7.7 7.7 -1.1 -0.5

19. 5. Key findings: Scenarios
A. Capture fisheries production B. Aquaculture production
C. Net trade D. Per capita fish consumption

20. 5. Key findings: Summary
1.Under business as usual, fish imports will
account for almost half of the fish for African
consumption by 2050
2.With investment, African aquaculture
production is likely to reach 16 million metric
tons by 2050
3.Higher GDP growth triggers higher per capita
demand for fish in Africa
4.Capitalizing on some of the existing tilapia
farming technologies from Egypt, tilapia
farmers across Africa could increase
aquaculture production substantially

21. 6. Limitations
1.Lack of trade data at desirable species classifications leads to
the inability to analyze bilateral trade flows and makes
analysis of specific Africa trade policy options difficult without
complementary work
2.Lack of data on high-quality aquaculture inputs

22. 7. Possible future developments
• International fish trade between Africa and other continents
should be investigated thoroughly to support sound fisheries
and aquaculture development policies
• Policies and technologies to reduce postharvest losses in
existing fish value chains deserve attention
• Develop a pan-African strategy that prioritizes the
improvement of fisheries and aquaculture data collection,
analysis and dissemination
• Investigate role of fish for food and nutrition security in
Africa, changing demand patterns for fish products,
constraints to productivity and trade, domestic self-
sufficiency and environmental trade-offs

23. Thank you
Funding support was provided by