1. FastForward Study Group: Overview Version A | 25 November 2009 Dr. John Olds Executive Study Group Director CEO | SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. | john.olds@sei.aero | 1+770.379.8002 Mr. Charles J. Lauer Study Group Member VP Business Development | Rocketplane Global, Inc. | clauer@rocketplane.com | +1 734. 476.2888
10. The Fast(est) Package Market ~10% of ALL package deliveries are now moving by the fastest available means ~10% of the fast package delivery market is for international destinations ~50% of total global market for international fast package delivery is US based “Just in Time” management practices and strong growth in Asia are driving the market According to “Freight In America” a study by the US DOT: “Air freight and express delivery are growing the most rapidly” of all freight sectors, From 1993 to 2002 the value of parcel shipments, the majority transported by air grew, 75% from $563 Billion to $986 Billion.
11. Current Same Day International Express Delivery Service Market 700,000 lbs/day current international traffic $10 billion / year global market Average delivery cost of $41/lb Typical “fast as possible” international express delivery time is ~3 days Hypersonic suborbital spaceplanes can provide global same-day delivery capability
12. Example Point-to-Point Suborbital Flight A P2P transport vehicle from a major American package carrier leaves from Guangzhou, China to Paris, France at10:00 am Monday. After takeoff the vehicle flies subsonically out of the city and accelerates and climbs, reaching Mach 3 at 80,000ft in under 20 min. It boosts into a suborbital arc trajectory at ~8,000mph. Some 25 min later it has crossed all of China and Kazakhstan. In the next 15 minutes it flies over Moscow, Russia, then crosses, Belarus, Lithuania, and into Poland. Somewhere over Poland the vehicle reenters the atmosphere and bleeds energy in a series of gentle turns over Poland and Germany. The vehicle passes over Luxembourg, Belgium, and Northern France in the next 15 min slowing to subsonic speeds. Landing in France ~1.5hrs after takeoff.At 4:30 am Monday. The packages can be delivered before they were sent!
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14. Vehicles will produce noise similar to powerful military or other large supersonic planes
31. Primary FastForward Study Group Focus Areas Our focus is on pre-competitive analysis and assessment of future global high-speed point-to-point passenger and cargo services Market assessment and characterization of future high speed point-to-point service for passengers and cargo, including economic drivers Identification of key regulatory and policy issues Evaluation of candidate flight vehicle options and technology needs Identification of challenges for emerging Aerospaceports in the U.S. and abroad Identification of synergies with ongoing government encouragement of advanced flight programs
36. There is a diverse set of preferred vehicle configurations represented by FastForward team members, but all must meet key requirements Economic Viability What is the design market? Can it compete and make money? Technical Readiness What are key technologies (propulsion, airframe, controls) Safety & Reliability Can it achieve aircraft-like safety and reliability records? Environmental Impacts What about SST downfalls: noise, land overflight, emissions? Regulatory & Legal Can high-speed point-to-point overcome regulatory and legal hurdles: streamlined customs, liability, overflight of non-participatory countries, integration with ATC systems? Key PTP Vehicle Selection Concerns
37. Sample Candidate PTP Vehicles and Flight Concepts Evolved Versions of Single-Site Suborbital Personal Spaceflight Vehicles Sierra Nevada Corp. Dreamchaser RocketPlane Global XP XCOR Lynx New Vehicles with Longer Range (Reusable or Expendable, Subsonic, Hypersonic) AerionSBJ (Supersonic Business Jet) Gulfstream Supersonic Business Jet Notional Hypersonic Vehicle (SEI) Supersonic Aerospace International, LLC (SAI) Quiet Supersonic Transport (QSST) All images are property of their respective copyright owners and are used here for educational purposes only
44. 1 , 8 0 0 1 , 6 0 0 1 , 4 0 0 1 , 2 0 0 P a y l o a d C a p a b i l i t y 1 , 0 0 0 Payload (kg) 8 0 0 6 0 0 4 0 0 - 1 y = 7 7 9 1 4 2 x 2 0 0 2 R = 1 0 0 5 0 0 1 , 0 0 0 1 , 5 0 0 2 , 0 0 0 2 , 5 0 0 P r i c e / k g 2 ( $ , F Y 0 0 8 ) N P V > 0 N P V < 0 o f P T P V e h i c l e B a s e l i n e " C a p t u r e d " P a y l o a d I n i t i a l E c o n o m i c D e s i g n P o i n t ( $ 8 0 0 / k g , 4 6 0 k g , N P V = - $ 7 . 1 B ) Financial Analysis for Notional PTP Service GHoST Calculator of City Pair Vehicle Delivery Capabilities Discrete Event Simulation Model of City Pair Delivery Time and Fleet Routing Sample Technical Analyses and Results
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48. Recognizes the national goal for affordable, safe, and reliable access to space as well as the aviation industry’s goal of “getting faster”
49. Outlines a case for establishing future high-speed PTP as a critical incremental step to achieve these goals using commercial RLVs
50. White paper released at ISPCS 2009 on October 21 and available for public downloadwww.spaceworkscommercial.com/projects/fastforward
51. PTP Serves as an Incremental Stepping Stone to Low Cost Space Access
52. The white paper posits that there are several advantages related to incremental plan to leverage PTP to lead to low cost space access Evolves from world-class industries within the U.S.,notably: commercial and business aviation, and reusable single-site suborbital transport, with their inherent emphases on reliability, safety, and affordability Derives from an immediate market-driven needfor faster global transportation services that will help sustain the critical transitional step of the plan Represents a true public / private partnership,with each entity bringing its own unique capabilities to the effort to reduce overall risk Is incremental by nature,with ample opportunities for commercial competition, synergies with other endeavors, and market development that help reduce peak annual expenses along the stepping stones of its evolution Sustains a strong and flexible domestic aerospace workforceto support synergistic commercial, civil, and military needs for both rapid global travel and space transportation Advantages of the Proposed Incremental Approach
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54. SpaceWorks Commercial is a division of SpaceWorks Engineering, Inc. (SEI) of Atlanta, GA. SpaceWorks Commercial seeks to create value-added partnerships with the emerging entrepreneurial space community as well as international space industry leaders. Key goals of this division include advancing innovative solutions to challenges in space development, space-based energy, and high-speed flight. SpaceWorks Commercial also participates in popular space prizes. For more information on the FastForward Study Group, contact Dr. John Olds, CEO of SEI (john.olds@sei.aero) or Mr. Dominic DePasquale, Director of Washington DC Operations for SpaceWorks Commercial (dominic.depasquale@sei.aero). Study Host Organization: SpaceWorks Commercial
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