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Predicting air cargo global 2020

Forecasting 2020

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Predicting air cargo global 2020

  1. 1. Predicting Global Air Cargo 2020 CTK is stand for Air Cargo Tonne Kilometers And it is the main unit to define Air Cargo demand in Aviation Annual CTKs Forecast: Really, it is hard to fit and forecast CTKs at 2020, as 2018 input data is higher than 2019. Therefore, the best way is to focus on 2017 and 2019 and keeping 2018 with minimum errors, provided that the pre-set target should be positive. In spite of poor performance for Global Air Cargo at 2019, but Corona crises boost the activities of Air Cargo in 2020. Whence we arrange the data, the best way to set up the annual target and minimize the data discrepancy, is to address the data by two trend models using the concept of 12 rolling months. First – General Trend Model using the concept of Straight Line equation – defining general trend. Second – Most Recent Data Trend Model Using a Polynomial Model – Second-degree equation. This reflects the impact of most recent data on the path of general trend. The mid-point is the most convenient forecast annual result at Dec 2020. So as long as the gap between two models is small, the more accurate approaching value for setting annual target otherwise we have to select the half way distance between two extreme targets of these two models provided that Dec 2020 > Dec 2019. Scenario 1: Preset AnnualTarget (Dec 2020) = CTKs = 211 (billion). Scenario 2: Optimum Solution. 2020 = CTKs = 246 (billion). (Recommend) By: Mohammed Salem Awad Aviation Consultant Data source: https://www.iata.org/en/iata- repository/publications/economic-reports/air-cargo- market-analysis---march-2020/