1.
Has Airline Forecasting
changed forever ?
By:
Mohammed Salem Awad
Corporate Planning Director
Yemenia
AVIATION FESTIVAL ASIA
14 - 15 June 2022

2.
Outline
• Introduction
• Airline Industry
• RecoveryPeriod
• Trend
• Airbus
• Polling
• AirlineIndustryModel
• TimeSeries
• Directional& Displacement
• ReadingIn TheFuture
• Airline Industry RPKs
• Setting Targets
• Trend Analysis
• SeasonalityAnalysis Outline
• SeasonalityAnalysis- Details
• Delta Airline - Domestic
• Trend Analysis
• SeasonalityAnalysis Outline
• SeasonalityAnalysis- Details
• Delta Airline - International
• Trend Analysis
• SeasonalityAnalysis Outline
• SeasonalityAnalysis- Details
• US Carriers – Domestic
• Results
• Summary
• References

3.
Forecasting, Goals and Targets
• Forecasting is valid only in a stable economic environments –
but not in the cases of a force major such as a natural disaster,
a sudden war, a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a
deadly virus such as the Covid-19 pandemic.
• So for time series, forecasting will be the mirror of the past with
an uncertain growth or not to repeat the hidden cycles ,
seasons and shocks that may will appear in the future with a
minimum acceptable margin errors .
Introduction

4.
Introduction
Driver for Economic growth and
Air Traffic Methodologies
Demand vs Supply
In Aviation
Industry:
Forecasting
depends on the
analyst, data
sampling, and in
what scope should
we treat the
process of
forecast, as it is
involves many
drivers.

5.
Introduction
• In Aviation Industry, Every One Has its own
Concept to Forecast and evaluate the Demand
based on their strategies and philosophy.
• Airbus philosophy is based on consolidation
“Hub-to-Hub”. Leadingto manufacture A380
• Boeing philosophy is based on Fragmentation
“Point-to-Point”. Leadingto manufacture B787
Dreamliner.
• That’s for longterm forecasting.
• But for short term forecasting, we always face the
seasonality term.
• General practice the Airline Industry Model can be
expressed by The ARIMA seasonal model.
• Yemenia – applied a new approach addressing
Signal tracking, that control the displacement and
rotational factors of the new model.
Manufacture Concept

6.
Introduction
• Shocks in Aviation History

7.
Introduction
Previous Shocks (Period Comparison)

8.
Introduction
• Current Situation – CTKs, RPKs Dom., & RPKs Int.

9.
Introduction
• Current Situation – Domestic Markets

10.
Introduction
Black Swan Situation

11.
Introduction
Black Swan Situation
Black Swan Theory:
A theory that suggests that rare events are unpredictable as if they were
impossible to happen.
The theory took its name from the swan, as it was widely believed that all birds
of this species were white, until black swans were discovered in Western
Australia in the 18th century.
- It is an unexpected surprise and have a significant impact, and
- After it occurs the explanations that it considers predictable appear.
The theory was described by The Black Swan in 2007. There are no agreed criteria by classifying an event as a "black
swan", so it could be a natural disaster, a sudden war, a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a deadly virus
such as the Covid-19 pandemic, but, according to Naseem Nicola, black swan events usually have three main
characteristics:
- It has not occurred in the recent past, and
- the forecasting and forecasting tools used at the time of their occurrence cannot be monitored.
- It has a profound impact on societies around the world.
- They are inexplicable at the time they occur, and can only be absorbed long enough after they have occurred.

12.
Airline Industry
Back To Norms will be May 2023 – Jan 2024
Expected Recovery Period

13.
Airline Industry
Back To Norms will be May 2023 – Jan 2024

14.
14
Airline Industry
Total Voting = 12234+ 1671 = 13905 Votes
Polling - Delphi Method

15.
Airline Industry Model
Airline Forecasting Industry Model
Time Series

16.
Airline Industry Model
Directional and Displacement Factors
Directional Displacement

17.
17
Reading In The Future (Previous Work)
Cases :
1- Air berlin
2 - Turkish Airlines
3- Iceland air
4- IAG group
5- Air Canada
6- Ryan Air
7- Lufthansa
At :
https://www.slidesha
re.net/forecasting/pr
esentations

18.
Airline Industry - RPKs
Airline Industry
RPKs
Back To Norms

19.
Airline Industry
Airline industry
reflects
a Black Swan
Situation,
which
characterize as
unpredictable
situation.

20.
20
Trend Analysis – Setting Targets

21.
21
Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis (Setting Target)
12 Moving Average
Two trend models

22.
22
Seasonality Analysis (RPKs Outline)
Outline

23.
23
Seasonality Analysis ( RPKs Details)
Details

24.
Airlines
Delta Airline
Domestic Passengers

25.
25
Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis (Setting Target)
12 Moving Average
Two trend models

26.
26
Seasonality Analysis (Pax. Outline)
Outline

27.
27
Seasonality Analysis ( Pax. Details)
Details

28.
Airlines
Delta Airline
International Passengers

29.
29
Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis (Setting Target)
12 Moving Average
Two trend models

30.
30
Seasonality Analysis (Pax. Outline)
Outline

31.
31
Seasonality Analysis ( Pax. Details)
Details

32.
32
US Carriers – Domestic Market
American Airlines, Skywest, SpirIt, & Hawaiian

33.
33
Results (Global)
Back To Norms : May 2023 – Jan 2024
Polling (LinkedIn) - Recovery On: 2024
Airbus Analysis = Recovery 2023 -2025
Passenger (RPKs) Details :
Pre-set Target 2021 = 9097 b. RPKs The Actual level
Dropped by 68.61 %
Pre-set Target 2022 = 9559 b. RPKs The Actual level
Dropped by 62.39 %

34.
34
Summary 1/2
Forecasting is an important tool for planning, so
without planning, there will be a disaster that may
happen, i.e what will happen in case of Force Major
Industry practice, we always use a point to point
analysis (Month by Month and Year by Year – YoY )
in terms of percentage which is reflected by V
shape Curve ( Black Swain Situation) in the current
situation. We just monitoring the situation –its
beyond your plans and controls.
In case of Airline industry, demand evaluation and
forecasting are a must. But we have first to define
the Recovery Period. Everyone has its own word.
We are addressed two Global Markets –
International and Domestics Markets to evaluate
the recovery period, which clearly shows that the
Domestic Market is in the final stage of recovery,
due the control of the local authority in the country.

35.
35
Summary 2/2
For Domestic Market - most of the big countries are
recovered, especially China, Russia and USA.
Example Delta Airline, shows a fast recovery for
Domestic Passengers, while internationally not.
While for International Market, the picture is different
Here the cross border rules, different authority, and
restrictions by different countries play a major part in
delay of International Market.
All signals indicate, that the airline industry will
recover by 2024.
Also for international operation still the world
suffering from COVID 19 – especially Europe. Due to
most of countries practicing the COVID 19 travelling
restriction between them.
While the crises between Russia and Ukraine is
another factor.

36.
36
References
Air Passengers Market Analysis
https://www.iata.org/en/iata-
repository/publications/economic-reports/air-passenger-
monthly-analysis---march-2022/
Airline Traffic Forecasting
https://www.slideshare.net/forecasting/presentations
Airport Traffic Forecasting
https://www.slideshare.net/wings_of_wisdom/airport-
forecasting-100-issues
US Carries Traffic Statistics
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements.aspx?Data=1

37.
37
Thank You
Contact