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Songtao Guo, Wei Di
Transforming B2B Sales
with Spark Powered Sales
Intelligence
Songtao Guo
Sr. Staff & Tech Lead
Data Analytics Data Mining at
LinkedIn
soguo@linkedin.com
Wei Di
Staff Data Scientist
Data Analytics Data Mining at
LinkedIn
wdi@linkedin.com
Outline
Overview of
Sales
Intelligence
❏  B2B landscape
❏  Challenges
❏  One-stop solution overview
❏  Derived insightful features from LinkedIn Graph
❏  Centralized Data Mart
❏  B2B Intelligent Engine
❏  Model learning
❏  Model reasoning
❏  Model management
B2B Intelligent
Framework
Overview &
Details
❏  Problem definition
❏  Labelling Logic & Interpretation
❏  Performance & Lessons learned
Case Study
Demand
Generation
Seal the
deal
Onboard &
Retention
Business
Growth
Business
Needs
B2B
Predictive
Modeling
B2B Analytics Landscape
How to prioritize marketing leads?
How much is the potential spending from a
client if acquired?
Who are more likely to become customers?
Why?
What is the best channel to acquire?
What is the market segmentation? How are new customers onboarding?
How are the customers engaged with
products based on different segments?
Which customer is going to renew less, why
and what can we do?
Which customer has upsell potential, why
and what product to buy?
Acquire New Customers Empower Existing Customers
Challenges of B2B Data & Application
●  Data quality issues
○  Incomplete, sparse, noisy and dynamic over time
○  Missing historical data
●  Lack of centralized data covering various needs
●  Unclear source of truth
●  From score to actionable insights
●  Unify existing solutions
○  Multiple owners
○  Multiple predictive scores exist for similar purposes
○  Inconsistent quality
●  Scale model building
Change Landscape with Spark
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.
Leonardo da Vinci
●  Chaos of data
●  Redundant/repeating work
●  No monitoring for feature evolvement
and model degradation
●  No scalability and slow iteration
The Old Landscape
One Stop Solution
●  Semi-automatic with flexibility of self-
configuration
●  Scalable and fast iteration
●  Monitoring with closed feedback loop
The New Paradigm
MLlib
B2B Intelligent Engine
Intelligence Layer
Predictive Modeling Clustering Optimization
Data Layer
Feature Mart Feature management Label management
Application Layer
Segmentation B2B predictive insights
Territory
planning
Solution integration
MLlib
Data Layer
Feature Mart Feature Management Label Management
•  Provide a central feature mart that serves as source
of truth for key account level metrics
•  Scale feature generation
•  Ensure high reliability and consistency (source
control, peer-review)
•  Cover all the company entities and sufficient long time
series
•  A standardized feature onboarding process
•  Unified metastore to support feature governance
and feature application
•  Feature search and feature profiling (Spark SQL)
•  Standardize problem definition
•  Scale label preparation
•  Gold dataset management
•  Support continuous performance
monitoring
Feature Mart
Canonical Data
Sources
Member, Company,
Job, Tracking,
SFDC, ...
Service Log
Prioritizer,...
External Data
Sources
SEC, ...
Label Mart
Source Data
label generation
pipelines
Human Labeler
Feature Feature Batch derived
labels
Survey
labels
Feature Metastore
Intelligence Layer
Workflows Feature Engineering Algorithms
•  Highly configurable model building
Azkaban workflow
Spark MLPipelines
Spark ParamGridBuider
•  Highly configurable scoring Azkaban
workflow
•  Integrate features from various of sources:
company level feature mart and user
experimental features
•  Support feature representation for different
entity types
•  Adapt different feature granularities: daily,
weekly, monthly, etc.
•  Regression
RandomForest, GradientBoostedTree,
XGBoostTree, LinearRegression
•  Classification
DecisionTree, RandomForest,
GradientBoostedTree, XGBoostTree,
LogisticRegression,
MultilayerPerceptronClassification
Intelligence Engine
Model Selection
Score Reasoning
Feature Grouping
Feature Integration
Feature Engineering
Model Validation Model Chaining
Model Ensemble
Model Parameter Tuning
Application Layer
	
Prospect	Score	
	
	
	
Account	
Propensity	
Size-Of-Prize	
Upsell/Churn	Score		
Demand
Generation
Seal the
deal
Onboard &
Retention
Business
Growth
Acquire New Customers Empower Existing
Customers
Life5me	Value	
clustering regression/classification
feature	
normaliza7on/
selec7on	
limited/skewed	
training	data	
non-linearity	but	
requires	model	
interpreta7on	
large	&	sparse	
dataset
Outline
Overview of
Sales
Intelligence
❏  B2B landscape
❏  Challenges
❏  One-stop solution overview
❏  Derived insightful features from LinkedIn Graph
❏  Centralized Data Mart
❏  B2B Intelligent Engine
❏  Model learning
❏  Model reasoning
❏  Model management
B2B Intelligent
Framework
Overview &
Details
❏  Problem definition
❏  Labelling Logic & Interpretation
❏  Performance & Lessons learned
Case Study
Derive Features from IN Graph
Activity
SocialMember
Profile
Company
Growth
Product
Booking
Product
Usage
Product
Whitespace
Product
Performance
Company
Profile
Sales
Marketer
Decision maker
Recruiter
Sales
Talent
professional
Decision maker
Sales
Sales
Employee
Centralized Feature/Label Mart
Feature Coverage:
●  derived company level knowledge
●  generic member/company level
●  internal & external data sources
●  monthly/daily granularity
●  region/functionality segmentation
●  enriched meta information
●  traceback to years early
Feature Management:
●  feature profiling
●  visualized monitoring system
●  whitelist/blacklist features as
needed
●  self-serve onboarding platform
Label Management
●  Unified label generation logic
for same type of problems
across different verticals
●  Vertical independent label
generation pipeline
B2B Intelligence Engine
Label
Data
New
Data
Meta &
Data Store
Feature
Engineering
Feature
Integration/Select
Intelligence
Engine
Train/Validation/Test
Dataset
Model
Interpretation
Model Building
Feature
Engineering
Scoring
Model Management &
Update
New Model
Previous
Models
Predictive
Solution
Production Deployment
Reasoning
Model Building
●  leverage Spark/ML: wide
coverage of modeling approaches
for regression, classification, and
clustering
●  do parallel multi-level model
training
●  fast iteration
●  self-serve configuration/tuning
●  various evaluation methods cater
to business requirement
Model Interpretation
Master Model Component Models
SOCIAL
E-LEARNING
MARKETING
AFFILIATION
ENGAGEMENT
SPENDING
GROWTH
PRODUCT
USAGE
(low)
Provide high-level overview and insights
through component scores
Deep dive to
finer-level
predictors
Estimate overall
conversion
probability from
master score
●  Monthly active seats
●  Avg days to onboard
●  Average CRM usage
●  Mobile view ratio
●  Percent of active seat-
holders who use advanced
features
●  Percent of active seat-
holders who imported sf
contacts
…...
Low
High
Low
Medium
Medium
Medium
+
Model Management/Monitoring
●  Monitor both feature/model performance
changes over time
●  Centralized model repo with standard format
●  Feed in new training data to generate
“challenger models” to compete
●  Pay attention to feature upstream change
●  Business customers evolve
dynamically
●  Products update periodically
●  Performance degradation
●  Failure/Outlier examples
●  Feature statistics over time:
○  non-null count, sum, medium
○  coefficient of variation for
volatility evaluation
●  Model refresh
●  Feature diagnosis
feature
monitoring
performance
monitoring
inherent temporal nature
Outline
Overview of
Sales
Intelligence
❏  B2B landscape
❏  Challenges
❏  One-stop solution overview
❏  Derived insightful features from LinkedIn Graph
❏  Centralized Data Mart
❏  B2B Intelligent Engine
❏  Model learning
❏  Model reasoning
❏  Model management
B2B Intelligent
Framework
Overview &
Details
❏  Problem definition
❏  Labelling Logic & Interpretation
❏  Performance & Lessons learned
Case Study
Case Study
Account Propensity Score
(APS)
Upsell Propensity Score
(UPS)
definition
Which enterprise accounts have higher chances
of buying the product & why?
Which existing enterprise customers have
upsell potential & why ?
common
●  business varies significant across region/product
●  data evolves dynamically, time series events
●  binary propensity model
●  actionable insights on dissect aspects
●  handle ‘confuse’ samples correctly (p = 0.5?)
differences
●  data sparse, noisy
●  region level, regions that are very small need
to borrow information from other regions/
global
●  score accuracy is important for the whole
spectrum
●  evaluation on all tiers
●  data is more reliable given rich product
usage features
●  product level
●  score accuracy is important for the top
ones
●  evaluation on recommended potentials
p ( rmaster | f,..f )
w1 * p ( rcompo. |
f1,..fq )
w2* p ( rcompo. | fq+1,..f
q+n) ….
Label Generation: APS
Label is defined at (account + region/etc) level
●  Positive – 1: closed won opportunity.
●  Negative – 0: closed disengaged opportunity
Opportunity evolves: time series events
●  lookback from opportunity creation time
●  find explicit negatives
●  try until won: flip opportunities
●  differentiate mid vs. year-end modeling
re-touch
label
Label Generation: UPSLabel is defined at (account + product) level for two
scenarios: Add-On and Renewal
●  Positives – 1: increased sell & continue contract
●  Negatives – 0: other cases
●  lookback from upsell creation time
●  focus on good quality positives
●  consider contract renewal/churn for
add-on case
$500
+$300
Contract 1 Churned
$500 $500 upRenewal
scenario
$500
$500 and
less
Contract 1
Contract 1
label
Add-On
scenario
$500
+$600
$500
-$200
Contract 1
Contract 1
Renewed
Renewed
Fast growth reflects potential demands,
find out how our product can help the
customer further grow and increase
social selling & affinity.
Upsell Propensity Score
Acct. A Acct. B Acct. C
Score 90 75 30
Comp. &
Growth
Fast member
growth
Hot industry Edu./Gov
Booking Product A:
$1000
Product B:
$500
Product B:
$700
Usage Highly Engaged Engaged Less Engaged
Perf. Good hiring
perf.
White Space $2,000 $500 $100
Modeling & Interpretation
Account Propensity Score
Acct. A Acct. B Acct. C
Score 92 65 30
Comp. &
Growth
Top Industry Fast Growth Decline
Affinity High Medium Low
Booking High Medium low Low
Social Selling High Medium High Medium low
Better onboarding & training to
boost product usage and
performance.
Model Performance & Business Impact
Model numerical validation
•  Account Propensity model: AUROC of 0.64; High vs. Avg: 1.7x;
•  Product Upsell model: AUROC of 0.84; High vs. Avg: 2.7x; Medium vs. Avg: 1.7x.
Business impact (Prioritization & Marketing)
•  Account Propensity: 17Q1: 5.3pp win-rate boost compared to no prioritization.
•  Product Upsell:
•  Marketing: 2.0x open rate, and 3.3x CTR compared to baseline.
•  SMB sales: generated 22% ~ 46% more opportunities with customers.
Business Impact
High Medium
High
Medium Low Avg
1.7x likely to be
upsold than avg.
2.7x likely
to be upsold
than avg.
Account
Propensity
Product
Upsell
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Avg
1.7x likely
to be won
than avg.
Summary
End-to-end B2B solution
●  Centralized large-scale data & advanced intelligence
●  Speed up individual model development cycles
●  Drive monetization impact and business performance
Thank You.
We are Hiring!
Songtao Guo, Wei Di
soguo,wdi@linkedin.com

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Spark summit 2017- Transforming B2B sales with Spark powered sales intelligence

  • 1. Songtao Guo, Wei Di Transforming B2B Sales with Spark Powered Sales Intelligence
  • 2. Songtao Guo Sr. Staff & Tech Lead Data Analytics Data Mining at LinkedIn soguo@linkedin.com Wei Di Staff Data Scientist Data Analytics Data Mining at LinkedIn wdi@linkedin.com
  • 3. Outline Overview of Sales Intelligence ❏  B2B landscape ❏  Challenges ❏  One-stop solution overview ❏  Derived insightful features from LinkedIn Graph ❏  Centralized Data Mart ❏  B2B Intelligent Engine ❏  Model learning ❏  Model reasoning ❏  Model management B2B Intelligent Framework Overview & Details ❏  Problem definition ❏  Labelling Logic & Interpretation ❏  Performance & Lessons learned Case Study
  • 4. Demand Generation Seal the deal Onboard & Retention Business Growth Business Needs B2B Predictive Modeling B2B Analytics Landscape How to prioritize marketing leads? How much is the potential spending from a client if acquired? Who are more likely to become customers? Why? What is the best channel to acquire? What is the market segmentation? How are new customers onboarding? How are the customers engaged with products based on different segments? Which customer is going to renew less, why and what can we do? Which customer has upsell potential, why and what product to buy? Acquire New Customers Empower Existing Customers
  • 5. Challenges of B2B Data & Application ●  Data quality issues ○  Incomplete, sparse, noisy and dynamic over time ○  Missing historical data ●  Lack of centralized data covering various needs ●  Unclear source of truth ●  From score to actionable insights ●  Unify existing solutions ○  Multiple owners ○  Multiple predictive scores exist for similar purposes ○  Inconsistent quality ●  Scale model building
  • 6. Change Landscape with Spark Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. Leonardo da Vinci ●  Chaos of data ●  Redundant/repeating work ●  No monitoring for feature evolvement and model degradation ●  No scalability and slow iteration The Old Landscape One Stop Solution ●  Semi-automatic with flexibility of self- configuration ●  Scalable and fast iteration ●  Monitoring with closed feedback loop The New Paradigm MLlib
  • 7. B2B Intelligent Engine Intelligence Layer Predictive Modeling Clustering Optimization Data Layer Feature Mart Feature management Label management Application Layer Segmentation B2B predictive insights Territory planning Solution integration MLlib
  • 8. Data Layer Feature Mart Feature Management Label Management •  Provide a central feature mart that serves as source of truth for key account level metrics •  Scale feature generation •  Ensure high reliability and consistency (source control, peer-review) •  Cover all the company entities and sufficient long time series •  A standardized feature onboarding process •  Unified metastore to support feature governance and feature application •  Feature search and feature profiling (Spark SQL) •  Standardize problem definition •  Scale label preparation •  Gold dataset management •  Support continuous performance monitoring Feature Mart Canonical Data Sources Member, Company, Job, Tracking, SFDC, ... Service Log Prioritizer,... External Data Sources SEC, ... Label Mart Source Data label generation pipelines Human Labeler Feature Feature Batch derived labels Survey labels Feature Metastore
  • 9. Intelligence Layer Workflows Feature Engineering Algorithms •  Highly configurable model building Azkaban workflow Spark MLPipelines Spark ParamGridBuider •  Highly configurable scoring Azkaban workflow •  Integrate features from various of sources: company level feature mart and user experimental features •  Support feature representation for different entity types •  Adapt different feature granularities: daily, weekly, monthly, etc. •  Regression RandomForest, GradientBoostedTree, XGBoostTree, LinearRegression •  Classification DecisionTree, RandomForest, GradientBoostedTree, XGBoostTree, LogisticRegression, MultilayerPerceptronClassification Intelligence Engine Model Selection Score Reasoning Feature Grouping Feature Integration Feature Engineering Model Validation Model Chaining Model Ensemble Model Parameter Tuning
  • 10. Application Layer Prospect Score Account Propensity Size-Of-Prize Upsell/Churn Score Demand Generation Seal the deal Onboard & Retention Business Growth Acquire New Customers Empower Existing Customers Life5me Value clustering regression/classification feature normaliza7on/ selec7on limited/skewed training data non-linearity but requires model interpreta7on large & sparse dataset
  • 11. Outline Overview of Sales Intelligence ❏  B2B landscape ❏  Challenges ❏  One-stop solution overview ❏  Derived insightful features from LinkedIn Graph ❏  Centralized Data Mart ❏  B2B Intelligent Engine ❏  Model learning ❏  Model reasoning ❏  Model management B2B Intelligent Framework Overview & Details ❏  Problem definition ❏  Labelling Logic & Interpretation ❏  Performance & Lessons learned Case Study
  • 12. Derive Features from IN Graph Activity SocialMember Profile Company Growth Product Booking Product Usage Product Whitespace Product Performance Company Profile Sales Marketer Decision maker Recruiter Sales Talent professional Decision maker Sales Sales Employee
  • 13. Centralized Feature/Label Mart Feature Coverage: ●  derived company level knowledge ●  generic member/company level ●  internal & external data sources ●  monthly/daily granularity ●  region/functionality segmentation ●  enriched meta information ●  traceback to years early Feature Management: ●  feature profiling ●  visualized monitoring system ●  whitelist/blacklist features as needed ●  self-serve onboarding platform Label Management ●  Unified label generation logic for same type of problems across different verticals ●  Vertical independent label generation pipeline
  • 14. B2B Intelligence Engine Label Data New Data Meta & Data Store Feature Engineering Feature Integration/Select Intelligence Engine Train/Validation/Test Dataset Model Interpretation Model Building Feature Engineering Scoring Model Management & Update New Model Previous Models Predictive Solution Production Deployment Reasoning Model Building ●  leverage Spark/ML: wide coverage of modeling approaches for regression, classification, and clustering ●  do parallel multi-level model training ●  fast iteration ●  self-serve configuration/tuning ●  various evaluation methods cater to business requirement
  • 15. Model Interpretation Master Model Component Models SOCIAL E-LEARNING MARKETING AFFILIATION ENGAGEMENT SPENDING GROWTH PRODUCT USAGE (low) Provide high-level overview and insights through component scores Deep dive to finer-level predictors Estimate overall conversion probability from master score ●  Monthly active seats ●  Avg days to onboard ●  Average CRM usage ●  Mobile view ratio ●  Percent of active seat- holders who use advanced features ●  Percent of active seat- holders who imported sf contacts …... Low High Low Medium Medium Medium +
  • 16. Model Management/Monitoring ●  Monitor both feature/model performance changes over time ●  Centralized model repo with standard format ●  Feed in new training data to generate “challenger models” to compete ●  Pay attention to feature upstream change ●  Business customers evolve dynamically ●  Products update periodically ●  Performance degradation ●  Failure/Outlier examples ●  Feature statistics over time: ○  non-null count, sum, medium ○  coefficient of variation for volatility evaluation ●  Model refresh ●  Feature diagnosis feature monitoring performance monitoring inherent temporal nature
  • 17. Outline Overview of Sales Intelligence ❏  B2B landscape ❏  Challenges ❏  One-stop solution overview ❏  Derived insightful features from LinkedIn Graph ❏  Centralized Data Mart ❏  B2B Intelligent Engine ❏  Model learning ❏  Model reasoning ❏  Model management B2B Intelligent Framework Overview & Details ❏  Problem definition ❏  Labelling Logic & Interpretation ❏  Performance & Lessons learned Case Study
  • 18. Case Study Account Propensity Score (APS) Upsell Propensity Score (UPS) definition Which enterprise accounts have higher chances of buying the product & why? Which existing enterprise customers have upsell potential & why ? common ●  business varies significant across region/product ●  data evolves dynamically, time series events ●  binary propensity model ●  actionable insights on dissect aspects ●  handle ‘confuse’ samples correctly (p = 0.5?) differences ●  data sparse, noisy ●  region level, regions that are very small need to borrow information from other regions/ global ●  score accuracy is important for the whole spectrum ●  evaluation on all tiers ●  data is more reliable given rich product usage features ●  product level ●  score accuracy is important for the top ones ●  evaluation on recommended potentials p ( rmaster | f,..f ) w1 * p ( rcompo. | f1,..fq ) w2* p ( rcompo. | fq+1,..f q+n) ….
  • 19. Label Generation: APS Label is defined at (account + region/etc) level ●  Positive – 1: closed won opportunity. ●  Negative – 0: closed disengaged opportunity Opportunity evolves: time series events ●  lookback from opportunity creation time ●  find explicit negatives ●  try until won: flip opportunities ●  differentiate mid vs. year-end modeling re-touch label
  • 20. Label Generation: UPSLabel is defined at (account + product) level for two scenarios: Add-On and Renewal ●  Positives – 1: increased sell & continue contract ●  Negatives – 0: other cases ●  lookback from upsell creation time ●  focus on good quality positives ●  consider contract renewal/churn for add-on case $500 +$300 Contract 1 Churned $500 $500 upRenewal scenario $500 $500 and less Contract 1 Contract 1 label Add-On scenario $500 +$600 $500 -$200 Contract 1 Contract 1 Renewed Renewed
  • 21. Fast growth reflects potential demands, find out how our product can help the customer further grow and increase social selling & affinity. Upsell Propensity Score Acct. A Acct. B Acct. C Score 90 75 30 Comp. & Growth Fast member growth Hot industry Edu./Gov Booking Product A: $1000 Product B: $500 Product B: $700 Usage Highly Engaged Engaged Less Engaged Perf. Good hiring perf. White Space $2,000 $500 $100 Modeling & Interpretation Account Propensity Score Acct. A Acct. B Acct. C Score 92 65 30 Comp. & Growth Top Industry Fast Growth Decline Affinity High Medium Low Booking High Medium low Low Social Selling High Medium High Medium low Better onboarding & training to boost product usage and performance.
  • 22. Model Performance & Business Impact Model numerical validation •  Account Propensity model: AUROC of 0.64; High vs. Avg: 1.7x; •  Product Upsell model: AUROC of 0.84; High vs. Avg: 2.7x; Medium vs. Avg: 1.7x. Business impact (Prioritization & Marketing) •  Account Propensity: 17Q1: 5.3pp win-rate boost compared to no prioritization. •  Product Upsell: •  Marketing: 2.0x open rate, and 3.3x CTR compared to baseline. •  SMB sales: generated 22% ~ 46% more opportunities with customers. Business Impact High Medium High Medium Low Avg 1.7x likely to be upsold than avg. 2.7x likely to be upsold than avg. Account Propensity Product Upsell Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Avg 1.7x likely to be won than avg.
  • 23. Summary End-to-end B2B solution ●  Centralized large-scale data & advanced intelligence ●  Speed up individual model development cycles ●  Drive monetization impact and business performance
  • 24. Thank You. We are Hiring! Songtao Guo, Wei Di soguo,wdi@linkedin.com