An Analysis of Digital Campaigning in Recent Elections: Looking at the presidential election campaigns in the US 2017 and France 2017 and the federal election in Germany 2017 the usage of fake accounts, fake news, big data, psychograpics, polarization, microtargeting and dark ads is analyzed in order to examine the possibilities to get your message to audiences beyond the algorithms of social media.

1. A Recipe for
Agenda Setting in
Echo Chambers?

2. A Recipe for Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers?
An Analysis of Digital Campaigning in Recent Elections
wegewerk. 2 | 72

3. “The First Social Media President.”
wegewerk. 3 | 72
www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Ingredients:
wegewerk. 4 | 72
psychographic models
fake news microtargeting
echo chambers
filter bubbles
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers
canvassing apps
fake profiles
dark ads

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Ingredients:
Big Data
Canvassing Apps
wegewerk. 5 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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No News: Big Data in U.:S. Elections
wegewerk. 6 | 72
Advertising resonance
Car usage
Consumption
Credit history
Political engagement
Psychographic:
Age
Gender
Ethnicity
Demographic:
Religion
Education
Income Mobile phone usage
Home ownership
Socio-economic status
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

7. wegewerk. 7 | 72
Big Data Canvassing Apps:
First used by Ted Cruz
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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No, not by Obama.
wegewerk. 8 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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The Obama App: A digital clipboard
wegewerk. 9 | 72
CRM
Campaign
SAAS
returns success
with reaction
profiles
Availabe Data
Canvassing
App
enriches data
suggests addresses
and default text
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

10. 10 | 72wegewerk.
The Ted Cruz app

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Cruz Crew App: Data mining combined with a sniffing app
wegewerk. 11 | 72
Salesforce
CRM
Campaign
SAAS
Facebook
Cambridge
Analy<ca 10 TB data
helps profiling
Canvassing
App
Facebook
Friends
to inform your
friends
enriches data
connects to
Data and tailored
messages
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

12. … also known as “The Stazi App”
wegewerk. 12 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Cruz Crew App: Data mining combined with a sniffing app
wegewerk. 13 | 72
Salesforce
CRM
Campaign
SAAS
Facebook
and further
enriches the
profiles
Cambridge
Analy<ca 10 TB data
helps profiling
Canvassing
App
Facebook
Friends
to get your
friends data
enriches data
connects to
Data and tailored
messages
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Ingredients:
Psychographic Models
wegewerk. 14 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

15. Psychographic Models: Associated with “Cambridge Analytica”
wegewerk. 15 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

16. Cambridge Analytica: Assumed to be engaged in all sorts of activities
wegewerk. 16 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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What does Cambridge Analytica actually offer?
wegewerk. 17 | 72
Advertising Resonance
Car Usage
Consumption
Credit History
Political Engagement
Psychographic:
Age
Gender
Ethnicity
Demographic:
Religion
Education
Income Mobile Phone Usage
Home Ownership
Socio-Economic Status
Persuasion
Strategy
Reciprocity
Scarcity
Authority
Fear
Social Proof
Psychology
Openness
Conscentiousness
Extraversion
Agreeableness
Neuroticism
?
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

18. wegewerk. 18 | 72
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bG5ps5KdDo

19. wegewerk. 19 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bG5ps5KdDo

20. wegewerk. 20 | 72

21. wegewerk. 21 | 72

22. Are psychographics overrated?
wegewerk. 22 | 72
BBC Newsnight,
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4sLMwdpF9U,
8:37
Rick Tyler
Former Ted Cruz
campaign spokesman
„It turned out to be
of no strategic value
at all (...)
In the end it was just
bullshit.
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Ingredients:
Geomarketing
wegewerk. 23 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Which data may be used without consent in Europe?
wegewerk. 24 | 72
Psychographic:Demographic:
Advertising Resonance
Car Usage
Consumption
Credit History
Political Engagement
Age
Gender
Ethnicity
Religion
Education
Income Mobile Phone Usage
Home Ownership
Socio-Economic Status
Persuasion
Strategy
Reciprocity
Scarcity
Authority
Fear
Social Proof
Psychology
Openness
Conscentiousness
Extraversion
Agreeableness
Neuroticism
?
Advertising Resonance
Car Usage
Consumption
Credit History
Political Engagement
Age
Gender
Ethnicity
Religion
Education
Income Mobile Phone Usage
Home Ownership
Socio-Economic Status
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Which data may be used with consent in Europe?
wegewerk. 25 | 72
Psychographic:Demographic:
Advertising Resonance
Car Usage
Consumption
Credit History
Political Engagement
Age
Gender
Ethnicity
Religion
Education
Income Mobile Phone Usage
Home Ownership
Socio-Economic Status
Advertising Resonance
Car Usage
Consumption
Credit History
Political Engagement
Age
Gender
Ethnicity
Religion
Education
Income Mobile Phone Usage
Home Ownership
Socio-Economic Status
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Which data may be used with consent in Europe?
wegewerk. 26 | 72
Psychographic:Demographic:
Advertising Resonance
Car Usage
Consumption
Credit History
Political Engagement
Age
Gender
Ethnicity
Religion
Education
Income Mobile Phone Usage
Home Ownership
Socio-Economic Status Location Data
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

27. Et voilà: “The First Big Data President in Europe.”
wegewerk. 27 | 72
www.flickr.com/photos/wgwrk/
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

28. wegewerk. 28 | 72
Pardon.
www.flickr.com/photos/francois_hollande/
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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politik-digital.de/news/datenabsierter-haustuer-wahlkampf-was-ist-drin-150744/

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Difference: Open Questions – analyzed by Language Detection
In your opinion, what works well in [France]?
In your opinion, what doesn’t work well in [France]?
What works well for you?
What doesn’t work well for you?
What positive things happened to the people around you?
What problems bothers the people around you?
What gives you hope concerning the future of [France]?
What are you afraid of concerning the future of [France]?
wegewerk. 30 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Macron: Location Based Data mining
wegewerk. 31 | 72
Address
DB
Website
Backend
Social Media
Usage
Returned
questionnaires
Data Analysis Elec<on results,
Demographic
data, Geo-
Marke<ng data
helps profiling
Canvassing
App
Friends
enriches data
coordinates
Data and tailored
messages
Performance
data
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

32. “The First Big Data Kanzler*in in Germany?
wegewerk. 32 | 72
flickr.com/photos/indeedous/
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

33. 33 | 72wegewerk.
The CDU App

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CDU App: Ambitious privacy but less strategic value
wegewerk. 34 | 72
Address
DB
Website
Backend
Social Media
Usage
Returned
questionnaires
Data Analysis
Elec<on results,
Demographic
data
helps profiling
Canvassing
App
Friends
enriches data
coordinates
Data and tailored
messages
Performance
data
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Ingredients:
Echo Chambers
Filter Bubbles
wegewerk. 35 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

36. “The First Social Media President.”
wegewerk. 36 | 72
www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

37. The Alt-Right Echo Chamber in Germany
wegewerk. 37 | 72
http://gfx.sueddeutsche.de/apps/e502288/www/
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Shares
How the SM algorithms work as gatekeepers:
wegewerk. 38 | 72
Virality
Consterna<on
level
Display
likelihood
Likes
Common
Friends
Time
Format
preferences
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Facebook Efficiency before German GE 2017
Facebook fans (in thousand)
Average likes (per posting)
wegewerk. 39 | 72
1348 165 153120 8479 51
321 186166 14113713071
AFD LINKECSU GRÜNESPDCDUFDP
AFD LINKECSU GRSPDCDUFDP
4,1‰ 0,8‰1 ‰ 0,4‰0,6‰0,9‰1,1‰
Source: Quintly / WIREED until April 2017
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

40. A typical AfD post.
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Not much difference in content strategy apart from length.
wegewerk. 41 | 72
Average length of text (in letters)
540 181 158 161 208272 232
AFD LINKE CSU GRÜNE SPD CDU FDP
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Ingredients:
Fake Accounts
wegewerk. 42 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

43. Fake Accounts
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Balleryna
about me: Irina, 17,
Deutsch-Russin,
Ballett-Tänzerin, lieb,
treu, zuverlässig.
New Friends? Yes,
please! Dear
followers, thank you
so much!
OriginalTwitterprofile,blurredbynetzpolitik.de
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

44. Fake Accounts
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- 40 Posts, 60 Likes per day
- 230.000 follower, following 300.000 twitter accounts
- Only 3% speak German, the sole language used (but 6% speak Arabic)
- Uses follow-back, any followers follow far more than 1000
- Attracts bots (peaks at 2000 and 5000 Followers)
- Activity pattern does not indicate management by a bot.
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Fake Profiles also on Facebook
wegewerk. 45 | 72
Shelly, „Hottest College
Girl in America“ 2010
Russian Chess Player
Boris Grachev
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Shares
How the SM algorithms work as gatekeepers:
wegewerk. 46 | 72
Virality
Consterna<on
level
Display
likelihood
Likes
Common
Friends
Time
Format
preferences
Shares
Likes
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Heavy Use of Facebook Groups
All administered by the same Fake accounts
Some of them hijacked on 3rd September 2017
wegewerk. 47 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Ingredients:
Clickbots
wegewerk. 48 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Shares
How the SM algorithms work as gatekeepers:
wegewerk. 49 | 72
Virality
Consterna<on
level
Display
likelihood
Likes
Common
Friends
Time
Format
preferences
Shares
Likes
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

50. Clickbots in US Elections 2016
wegewerk. 50 | 72
37,2%
Bot share of all pro
Trump Tweets at the
first presidential debate
22,3%
Bot share of all pro
Clinton Tweets at the
first presidential debate
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Clickbots in German GE 2017
• Only AfD announced to use bots.
• Other parties unilaterally
dismissed the idea
• De-facto “Code of Conduct”
seemingliy prohibted usage
• AfD later claimed not to have
used bots
wegewerk. 51 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Ingredients:
Fake News
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Shares
How the SM algorithms work as gatekeepers:
wegewerk. 53 | 72
Virality
Consterna<on
level
Percep<on
likelihood
Likes
Common
friends
Time
Format
preferences
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Fake News in the German GE 2017
Identification too easy – rather satirical cases
wegewerk. 54 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Fake News in the Germen GE 2017
Identification too easy – rather satirical cases
wegewerk. 55 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Quick Reaction Teams
- “Green Net Fire Brigade”
- Whatsapp Group against FakeNews even at the Left Party
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Ingredients:
Polarisation
wegewerk. 57 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Shares
How the SM algorithms work as gatekeepers:
wegewerk. 58 | 72
Virality
Consterna<on
level
Percep<on
likelihood
Likes
Common
friends
Time
Format
preferences
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Polarisation strategies in the German GE 2017
For the last months of the Campaign AfD engaged Harris Media:
wegewerk. 59 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Ingredients:
Microtargeting
wegewerk. 60 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Share of Sponsored Posts of all Posts
Findings from April 2017, when some Parties haven’t started yet:
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7,1%
FDP
LINKE
19,6%
6,6%
AFD
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Which data does Facebook offer for targeting?
• Data specified by the users
• What users liked
• Specific Locations
• Users post opening behaviour
• Your uploaded default list
Even though quite precise - sometimes inefficient targeting:
• SPD reaches Green Party Members
• Kern advertised in Germany
wegewerk. 62 | 72
Not permitted in GDPR
without explicit consent
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Ingredients:
Dark Ads
wegewerk. 63 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Dark Ads used by the Christian Social Union of Bavaria (CSU)
Advertised on Facebook only to friends of RT:
wegewerk. 64 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Dark Ads used by the new extreme right AfD
Islamophobic Poster removed during campaign but prevailed in SM
wegewerk. 65 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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AfD SM Ad Strategy
FB-Interest AfD ad message
Angela Merkel Refugees must have a passport
No family reunion for refugees
Liberals (FDP) Less bureaucracy for SMEs
Back to the Deutschmark
Liberalism Back to the Deutschmark
Spendings per refugee
NachDenkSeiten
(Counter-Information Project
for the Left)
No more fees for public broadcasting
Stop TTIP & CETA
wegewerk. 66 | 72
Source: WhoTargetsMe/BUZZFEED
Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

67. Not so dark Ads presented on the Left Party Facebook video page
wegewerk. 67 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

68. Not so dark Ads presented on the Green Party Website
wegewerk. 68 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Ingredients:
What’s the recipe?
wegewerk. 69 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Ingredients:
Questionnaires
D2D Apps
Microtargeting
SM Network
Engaging Content
wegewerk. 70 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Unsure: Dark Ads
Sure, if campaigning messages differ by audience …
• contradictory aims may be selectively presented
• there’s no more need to present solutions for conflicting interests
• you sustain echo chambers.
But:
• you might want to engage audiences who need a different starting point
in the debate
• as long as you just use different wording without twisting your message
it might be an effective means to build bridges into echo chambers
wegewerk. 71 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

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Questions? Comments?
Juri Maier
juri.maier@wegewerk.com
wegewerk gmbh
saarbrücker straße 24 | 10405 berlin | germany
www.wegewerk.com | www.twitter.com/wegewerk | www.facebook.com/wegewerk
t +49 30 213087-0 | f +49 30 213087-17
wegewerk. 72 | 72Agenda Setting in Echo Chambers

73. thank you